More Bad News For Bitter Renters

Wow!! So prices are FLAT compared to the previous quarter!! This market is GOING CRAZY!

Yawn. I'm not waiting for a real estate market crash. I'm waiting for a New York Times article that is based on actual data and not anecdotes supplied by real estate brokers.

must agree....the brokers must be pumping a lot of money$$$ into NY TIMES weekly advertising to have the adeptness to "ghost write" articles that appear in a paper of this caliber. why should we accept reading such nonobjective points of view?

No one wants a crash we just want realty to come back.

"...why should we accept reading such nonobjective points of view?..."

Uh-huh, mission. Like your and faustus' opinions are backed up by anonymous, blind, third-party test results? Puh-leeeeez!

Admittedly, anyone can make numbers sing and dance, so statistics should always be taken with a grain of salt. And I understand and empathize with julia's comment above. But the facts in the NYT article are pretty clear -

"...Last month, the number of closed sales just about matched the number closed in November 2006, and prices were considerably higher, but roughly flat compared with the prices in the previous quarter, according to a review of sales records filed with the city...a search of listings on StreetEasy, a real estate Web site, showed a steady stream of old and new buildings going into contract within 30 days of their listing..."

So now unless you're now accusing these facts to be complete fiction, and that the NY Times AND Streeteasy are BOTH in cahoots to form a syndicate to artificially prop up news about real state prices/sales in NYC and create completely false data, than knock it off. You both sound like broken records.

I wish I had the time to scroll through all the major postings on Streeteasy from January 2007 to present, and paste up all the ridiculous prognostications that the real estate bears had posted all year long in 2007 about the market tanking by 10%, 20%, 30%, and more in 2007. That the lack of wall street bonuses would tank the market by 40% (or more!) before the end of the year. That the subprime/Alt-A crisis would cause the NYC real estate market to crash by 50% (OR MORE!) by the end of 2007. That the end of the world was just about to happen ANY DAY NOW, and that they would be able by the end of the (2007) calendar year to snap up crazy deals at 50 cents (or better!) on the dollar.

It was just one massive schadenfreude festival which, sadly, never seemed to gather enough critical mass. Of course, we could go back and paste up the same people's stupid predictions form 2006, 2005, 2004, and so on, but why pour more salt in the wound?

The REAL question, mission, is why should we accept your and faustus' nonobjective points of view? What the hell do you know? Were you even living in NYC during the last correction in 1990-1994?

The Times data may not quite be "false," but it is certainly thin. Notice that the word "prices" is standing alone. Are we talking average or median? Given the slant of the article, I'm going to assume the much higher average. Recent analysis by Jonathan Miller/Radar Logic has shown that the spread between the two has grown considerably. So yes, things are tight if you're shopping at the very top of the market, but I just took a look on Street Easy at price changes for apartments under 2MM, and 80% of the first hundred were reductions. I get multiple email updates from Street Easy every week, and within my search parameters, it's almost all price chops.

I can also feel the difference at open houses. Brokers have been volunteering that their sellers are flexible. This used to almost never happen. Read Urban Digs and True Gotham. When a large office at Elliman is showing very light activity, things can't be good for most sellers.

We have every reason to believe there will be no bonus bounce this year, and with foreign buyers absent from the coop buying pool, the majority of properties will be in a weakened position.

Remember the 11/30 WSJ article?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119638554201808816.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

"Fewer apartments are being sold -- 858 went into contract in September, a 9.9% drop from a year ago and the lowest total in two years, according to brokerage Corcoran Group -- and the inventory of unsold apartments is increasing. Prices are also leveling off. The median price of a Manhattan apartment fell 3.4% in the third quarter from the previous one, according to the research firm Radar Logic. The firm says properties are sitting on the market longer, too, an average of 123 days, up from 94 days at the peak of the market in 2005."

So if median prices are still "roughly flat compared with the prices in the previous quarter" as the new Times article states, they're still down from last year.

Seems like there's no concern for a crash or a burst in Manhattan, given the wealth, the foreign investment, and the continued desirability of living here. The credit crunch and it's impact on Wall Street, plus a general moderate downturn of the U.S. economy in 2008, will likely cause some softness and a slight decline in Manhattan housing prices, but more likely things will remain flat or possibly push up a bit. I'd say no boom or bust in Manhattan real estate in 2008 overall, though there could be a rocky quarter or two in certain sectors and neighborhoods.

will, I don't recommend posting factual or even keel information on this site, as you have above. There are too many people on this board who think the sky is falling, the world is about to end, and you are opening yourself up to criticism from bitter renters, gold traders, and credit crisis zealots. Be very careful with your well thought out opinions, it could get ugly.

couldn't agree with you more Juiceman - this board has turned into a complete and utter joke. Not worth the time it takes to log on anymore. 8 months ago it was a very different story - but thanks to certain individuals who will remain nameless, anyone with any insight has moved on (including myself- this is my first post in 3 months)

I think we need to remember that the past 8 yrs have not been all boom in Manhattan... take a look back to 2001-02 and 2005.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/04/real_estate/manhattan_prices_hit_wall/?cnn=yes