where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

JuiceMan, maybe you can help me understand... So far, I seen lots of units being relisted which didnt sell in Q4. They are relisted with above 10% from its original price. I have yet to see any discount. Most of the place in my ranges have been $1100 sqf. The $1000sqf that I have seen in Q4 are none existant right now. But yet, some units are being sold. Maybe its the low inventory and people are grabbing anything thats decent and around $1100 sqf.

What do you think? I was thinking of buying a place in spring / summer but now I am retreating not because of the economy but because of rising prices.... And as new units come out for the spring season, they are coming out at $1200 sqf....

If I could help you understand jifjif I would, but I'm not sure I totally understand it myself. I think your point on inventory is spot on, there are opportunistic sellers taking advantage of a tight market. Another thing to consider is what you are looking for. If you are looking for a certain layout in a certain neighborhood which combined, is highly desirable (e.g. 2/2 in UWS) your psqft numbers will become out of whack for that particular neighborhood. Supply may so be so much lower than demand for those particular type of units that prices will be more irrational for that segment of the market. To be candid, there are probably another million things that could be going on here that are highly dependant on the particular situation. May be a good topic for new thread, should get some interesting responses.

I wouldnt even know what I would call that thread hah. I am still trying to figure this market out (and mortgage / real estate)

Take a look at prices decreased within the last thirty days. I think what's striking is how many units have only been on the market three weeks or so, often less than two, and are decreasing 5-10%. These are not new developments, yet, but it may indicate that some people NEED TO SELL, which, with only a slight push can lead to something larger. Take a closer look at new developments and we're starting to see a few (granted, still very few) units going back on the market essentially the day of closing, sometimes also as a rental. Who knows? Timing the market is a very interesting concept. In every other arena of investment we're encouraged to consider p/e, future potential, etc., yet with real estate we're often told just to suck it up and pay what we can afford. Not always the best advice, IMHO.

Juiceman or jifjif take a look at this chart and let me know your interpretation. The only inventory that's available are turkeys and they may not be flying off the shelves as in 2007. I do believe Manhattan faces a real low inventory crisis of quality apts, in nice neighborhoods with nice views and layouts.
In any case can someone give an interpretation of this chart. Thanks in advance

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1172174113xJdGm&Record=12

aboutready, I am not sure if there are that deep of a discount. I think the discounts come from inflated prices of exsiting units with less desirability.

spunky, I agree, I have looked at that previously and I do agree that there is an inventory issue. It maybe reflective of the 2004 level. I guess the question is would price decline with low inventory or would it inflate due to low inventory. So far I have seen inflated prices. There are a lot of brokers out there with very optimistic view of the market. They may believe that they can inflate the prices due to lack of inventory or they think it is really worth that much (which is troubling).

I honestly think that a lot of people are mislead by manhattan being immune from the economy. I think it will have some effect but not as bad as the time of black monday (there are controls in place to stop the stock market if it drops certain percentage). Everyone is searching for bottom. End of Q1 will not be good news for most industries and Q2 would be the same. Would that have immediate effect on RE prices in mahattan? I think it would to a degree.

I think now I am talking out of my ass.

spunky - please tell me you are not looking at quarterly reports for DEC 07 and saying that is something a new investor should use as a tool for predicting future growth potential! Please tell me this isnt the case as we all know that exact dataset was offset from the sales of 15 CPW & The Plaza and is NOT reflecting the $2M and below market.

Also, I like how you just ignore that real listing I asked you to review whose asking 175K lower and is 9 floors higher at 200 RSD. I cant tell you how many eblasts I get from brokers stating, MAJOR PRICE CUT, SELLER MUST SELL, JUST BRIN ME AN OFFER,...but you know all this right because you are the all knowing spunky.

Macro is deteriorating so fast right now, rates will have to go down more, and stocks are lagging credit markets in realizing the slowdown. For Manhattan, inventory is CLEARLY RISING the past 2-3 months and is up about 15% during this time, and down only about 10%, instead of 20% from last years levels where macro concerns were not around like they are today. But to get on board with this is to accept that we are at NOW NOW, and no longer in 2007. I know you liked 2007 and often live there in your mind.

Here is an something for you to let you know what is going on outside our walls which is what is hurting macro economy (i assume you acknowledge this): I have a good friend that is an appraiser in Miami. He does mostly refi's as sales has slowed big time past year or two. He says he does about 65% refis, 35% sales appraisals. He just called me yesterday to tell he JUST DID AN APPRAISAL, OUTSIDE WEST PALM BEACH, IN A VERY GOOD NEIGHBORHOOD AND A GORGEOUS HIGH END DEVELOPMENT WHERE A 5br/4bth CONDO SOLD FOR 575k w/ developer incentives. This exact condo sold for 850K in late 2005! I asked if this is one unique transaction or indicative of the market and other hoods. He said is how the whole market is down there and this is the worst one he's seen thus far. Thats a decline of about 30%? Builders are forced to sell because otherwise they will go insolvent; hence the major cuts. Inevntory is scary high. Land inventory is being sold at huge discounts. Also, he said lenders are demanding at least 20-25% down for sales and that in and of itself is shrinking who is available to purchase homes. He said tightened lending standards is crippling demand.

Case/Shiller index shows a decline of about 10% I think for these areas in FL, so even that has to play catch up to reality; hence why Robert Shiller is telling us that his index will be showing more downside, the guy created the damn thing!

Im trying to sell my mothers house in Commack, LI. Her type house was selling, actually sales, for about 630K in early 2006. We are now asking 515K, down from 599K, and have 1 bid of 475K in. This is reality outside Manhattan in so many hoods that is causing havoc on wall st, credit markets. Yet all metrics don't show where we are at right now yet.

Putting Manhattan aside, this is what wall st and the credit markets and the overall economy and our consumers (yes, 70% of GDP is consumers), is dealing with right now.

Here is another link to a chart. I'm trying to figure out the inventory of January 2008 compared to the the inventory of previous January's. It's entertaining to read and listen to all the negative economic news, predictions and forcasts. It's also interesting to observe all the bloggers getting on the bandwagon and regurgitating this to ad nauseum.
I'm trying to figure out not the predictions but the current facts so if someone can let me know why inventory in January 2008 in Manhattan is at this level I'd like to know.
BTW has anyone noticed the what's going on in the platinum market?

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168399259Jmtnq&Record=11

spunky - last JAN total inventory was about 6000..Now its about 5600 (and my streeteasy widget says same thing for right now so lets say its accurate)..

Spunky let me try to explain to you, without discussing anything macro since that pins me as a doom & gloomer to you. JAN - APRIL 2007 was very active, much more active than now, and saw great sales volume. I acknowledged this & discussed the strength as it occurred in early 2007 plenty of times;

As a result, sales volume was strong and inventory was taken down BIG TIME. The chart shows this with big declines as those deals from contracts signed in JAN-APRIL 2007 closed. As we got into summer there was a lack of inventory that came to market. MAY - AUG shows this decline. Then, September came, about 4-5 weeks AFTER the credit storm hit us with Bear Stearns hedge funds going under and stock shock. Since that time, INVENTORY JUMPED FROM A LOW OF 4,600 IN JULY 2007 to 5,600 RIGHT NOW. A jump of about 22%!

So, here are answers:

YoY Inventory Change - down 7% or so
6-MTH Inventory Change - Up 22%

Go back to last January, when the entire lending + macro environment was completely different (insert doom & gloom attack here spunky), if you want to but that is totally meaningless. We are at now now.

all commodities are surging because fed is going to EASE HARD, dollar will weaken and global demand is high as supply never caught up! All a result of deteriorating macro, credit distress, and slowing economy ---> Fed cuts rates.

But you can spin it positively like you always do that lending rates will fall. They won't, because there is a credit crunch going on, but do your thang!

I'm also not sure what the obsession is with YoY stats. It's a pretty arbitrary/of limited use measure when you're trying to predict what's going to happen in the coming months. The trend line is more useful, and if urbandigs' inventory widget is accurate, inventory is on an upward swing. It's probably even more useful to see what kinds of apartments are coming onto the market (and not selling as quickly), and several of you have alluded to less-than-desirable places being the culprits. That is way more useful (and logical) than those Miller Samuel charts, in terms of this discussion, but it's also nearly impossible to measure.

bjw2103 - data is in BETA now since late October. In 2 more months we will take out of BETA as we are fairly happy with accuracy. if I can get my way, you guys will have a great tool to use to monitor real time trends in our housing market. But, alot of things need to come together for this and it will cost me a large amount of $$ to build

spunky - doing a post just for you

Urbandigs, do you have any stats re inventory to population ratios. I remember reading a comparison of the Miami market to the Manhattan market which was very telling. That is, Miami has an inventory of about 80,000 and a much lower population than manhattan with its inventory of 5500 or so.

I tend to agree with you that macroeconomic factors will have a negative impact on price, but could be a mild decrease or even just more sluggish growth, to paraphrase Mr. Bernanke. I think it may impact different neighborhoods and even different buildings differently. I appreciate the fact that you have pointed out repeatedly that you don't expect a crash in Manhattan.

bjw excellent point. I do beleive and I am quite confident that those in the market to buy in Manhattan are having a tough time finding an apt in a desirable area, with nice views, good layout and amenities.

will - hmmm, great question. No unfortunately I do not. Something I can work on though for a discussion in future. Thanks, and yes I have pointed out so many times that Manhattan LAGS in recession and LEADS in recoveries; but is not immune. I do not expect a crash like Miami is seeing but I do expect a slowdown to hit should economy falter, jobs are lost, stocks fall/neg welath effect, and confidence drops. But inventory will have to change first, before pricing pressure hits.

urbandigs, your efforts are greatly appreciated, trust me. I've dealt with countless brokers in my search (coming up on month 11) and very few are as open, honest, not to mention insightful as you are, and this just based on your blog and comments here. Would love to speak to you offline about my search if you've got the time.

spunky, I think you're right, it is tough to find those "gems," and will continue to be tough in the near future. Part of the reason there's a lot of heated exchange on this thread is that I think we're all talking about slightly different things. You seem to just focus on WV, Soho, Tribeca, which is such a small subset of Manhattan, and an even small subset of NYC and the macro US market. I do think even those areas will see a slowdown/slight correction (a close family friend working in real estate financing who knows Manhattan quite well made a compelling argument, tough to argue with him from my standpoint anyway), as nothing is untouchable. Still, I don't think things will drop enough for me, so I'm focusing on Williamsburg at the moment. I understand why you get a little defensive, and you make good points here and there, but you're seemingly always in attack mode and tend to "reach" for stats/anecdotes to prove your points, which is what irks some. I'm curious what kinds of properties you already own. Exclusively those downtown areas? Co-ops/condos? New construction?

hit me on private chat..online now

urbandigs, at what inventory levels would you begin to feel that the Manhattan market is in trouble? Also, once out of BETA, will your inventory data be searchable by neighborhood?

Juice - Very hard to say. Ill guess though, because I think confidence is more important indicator that may lead to higher inventory. But let me do it this way:

6,000 - obsessed followers start to notice
6,500 - active buyers should notice more options
7,000 - sellers should feel some pain via active competition
7,500 - may start to be a problem

all guesses. We are still 2000 units off though in my opinion from having noteworthy trouble. May not happen. I hope it doesnt. If inventory really spikes and prices start to fall, the buyer herd generally gets scared away as no one wants a depreciating asset. That adds fuel to fire and a situation best explained by looking outside our walls. You would think that if prices fall 5% and inventory spikes, buyers will get real excited, but generally that is not the case. If it turns out of favor, its not good for anybody.

I have to talk with streeteasy about taking charts to next level. As of now, all I have is data you see. However, the tool I have in mind is a bit different and will be most useful for buyers trying to analyze general market, neighborhoods and specific bldgs for a prospective purchase

"If inventory really spikes and prices start to fall, the buyer herd generally gets scared away as no one wants a depreciating asset."

This is a really good point urbandigs, and one of the reasons I think trying to "time" the market is stupid. For all of those out there that are waiting for discounts, most won't pull the trigger when faced with a really good deal for fear of the market going lower. By the time they gain their confidence back, natural appreciation has already eroded any significant discount. See it with stocks all the time.

Say what you want about spunky, but his buy of C and MER a couple weeks ago highlights a key personality trait that you need to make money. Buy when everyone else says not to, ignore short term dips (and the hoards of nay-sayers saying you made a mistake), and hold for the long term. Takes balls, and that’s what you need to succeed in the Manhattan real estate market.

urbandigs I noticed your blog site posted a pop up in inventory during the last week in February. The graph also shows that inventory is increasing in February 08 as well. This type of negative propaganda is quite amusing. What you failed to mention is that if you overlap the graph of Feb 07 and 08 it would show the same increasing trend. What you also failed to mention is that Feb 08 inventory will probably be lower Feb 07.

Sorry I meant to say What you also failed to mention is that Feb 08 inventory will probably be lower than Feb 07.

Inventory/Population ratios would probably lend quite a bit of insight into why prices in Manhattan are so high, and possibly explain why marked declines in prices are highly unlikely, relative to other cities.

negative propaganda - wow spunky, you will go to any length to obscure the fact that I am just reading data. I even said in the post that inventory is still tight, and that this uptrend is not enough to impact prices.

Why do you just ignore this? Spunky you really have issues.

Urbandigs I do enjoy the way you try to peddle fear. Fear can be very profitable. Sounds like that's your thang!

BJW: "I'm [] not sure what the obsession is with YoY stats. It's a pretty arbitrary/of limited use measure when you're trying to predict what's going to happen in the coming months. The trend line is more useful..."

I don't understand what bjw means. If the current trend line is not compared to the comparable periods in past years, how is one to know if the current apparent trend is different than in any average yearly cycle? For example, if inventory increased in January '08 by 5%, but in January '07, '06, '05 inventory increased 20%, that would show something happening that is causing a decrease--not an increase--in what the inventory should be for this January. Am I missing something?

Once again interesting how the fear peddler fails to mention that if you draw a trend line on the January's (04,05,06,07) it appears to be on the incline. Now comes January 08 and you get a drop off of inventory. Which is what moist RE brokers are complaining about. The shortage of decent apts in good neighborhoods with good layouts and nice views. It's the turkeys that RE Brokers are trying to peddler at inflated prices that are adding to their frustration.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168399259Jmtnq&Record=11

kylewest, sorry, tough to always get everything out clearly on a message board. My point was that just comparing Jan 08 to Jan 07 isn't very fruitful. Inventory may be lower between those two points, but as urbandigs points out, inventory dropped dramatically just before/during last summer, and has been rising (albeit slowly) in recent months. That trend is more important to someone looking to buy or sell in the near future, I think. One could argue that it means nothing since it doesn't really predict much (and the future IS what we care about here, right?), but it's all we've got. As we all know, timing the market = next to impossible.

bjw look at the summer months of the inventory trend leading up to January 06. I beleive you will see a mirror image of the trend to Jan 08

spunky your coming for drinks next wed right? I need a real estate bull to be around

I'm actually bearish when it comes to inventory. I do beleive Manhattan has a major inventory shortage of quality apts.

so is that a no

Nothing more enticing than spending a night out of one precious life to get all liquored up with Urbandigs.

can't let this thread drop of the top list can we ?

Spunky - thats still not an answer. yes or no.

To be a fly on the wall during an alcohol induced, in person conversation between Streets, spunky, and urbandigs. Now that's entertainment.

The year 2008 will be the year of the Second Great Depression. Unemployment will reach 25%. Inflation will be at 1932 Germany levels. There will be breadlines. There will be massive bank failures and closings. President Obama will reveal his faithfulness to the harshest brand of Islam, declare the US an Islamic Republic and divide the nation into 4 regions: Sunni, Shihites, Kurds, and Mets fans. The only untouched areas will be the free Republic of Vermont and the Nation of Manhattan. Manhattan will stay free because the high price of gasoline will eliminate the possibility of uninvited Jet landings, and Mayor Bloomberg's traffic congestion plan will make it impossible for the Islamo-Fascist armies to get below 96th Street, and they will retreat, or was it 65th Street?

In any event, Manhattan real estate prices will surge, because non-Islamic/non-Mets fans will have no where else to go, well except Vermont. See the Democracy for America blog for more on that.

Disclaimer - The author knows that Sen. Obama is not Muslim (not that there would be anything wrong with that), but it is Christian, and a patriotic American who would make a fine President. The above is meant to be purely satirical in response to some of the crazy stuff on this blog. Just a little Presidents Day attempt at humor.

I think TheStreets, spunky, Juiceman, and urbandigs all work for streeteasy and get paid to bring attention to the site. There is no way these idiots would spend their own time arguing about this stupid stuff.

Fishhead - nobody cares what you think.
I wish I was a streeteasy employee so I could delete your account.

Would a streeteasy employee tell you that you are a douche?
I don't think so.
Fishhead, you are a douche.

You are right Fishhead. Thanks for posting, I just made 1/10000th of a cent. If you keep it up, I may be able to chip in and buy you a clue.

"Would a streeteasy employee tell you that you are a douche?
I don't think so.
Fishhead, you are a douche."

Now that is just f&cking funny.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/19/news/economy/minneapolis_fed_speech/index.htm?postversion=2008021910

adding fuel to the fire....

Can someone please get Lindsey Lohan out of my New York magazine?

Juiceman - are you nuts? What a body - she'd tear me limb from limb ;)

spunky - Im curious to hear your thoughts on this units pricing on 32nd floor with 3 exposures compared to a larger unit on 33rd floor, 4BR/3BTH, this is 3BR/3BTH, and 275 sft smaller. The other sold for 2.4M, so lets assume $1200/sft to be safe and multiply by 275 sft which equals $330K. Yet, this 32nd floor unit is asking $600,000 less than what that other one sold for and is not in contract yet?

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=921679&rentalperiod=&SearchType=quick&Region=NYC

sorry other one was on 28th floor and closed April 2007

urbandigs, can you explain why there are four brokers on this listing? Why do you need four brokers on a listing?

easy one. JT has a whole team! Your seeing the team on every listing. She has created a whole business around her business; in a sense. Structured kind of like an attack team for sellers, those who pitch, those who market above & beyond, those who run OH's, those who service buyer clients gained, and on.

JT is the face of the team, and is kind of her own brand. Biz is so big, she cant effectively service on her own and wouldnt be able to take full advantage of all potential $$ possibilities if she did. Many top producers have teams. Unfortunately, Im not there yet!!! Hope to be soon. These guys do 75+ deals a year.

Noah = Sycophant

now where did you learn such a sophisticated word like that. Hey, all I did was answer a question!

It was a joke; you sounded so adoring it made me vaguely uncomfortable so I had to break the tension.

you know I love you eah

can we delete this thread?! all of you that keep going back and forth stroking and stoking each other's egos, grab and beer and beat each other off.

Amen. Bunch of idiots, especially TheStreets. That guy has a serious inferiority complex.

I've got a better idea curious007 and Fishhead, why don't you just stop reading the thread? If it is that bad, why are you here?

The Crash? Ask the city what's happening to real-estate tax receipts this year. GROUND TO A HALT. There are over 15k apartments listed on StreetEasy; only 10k apartments are sold each year in Manhattan. Add in the apartments that aren't listed - and developers only release apartments in blocks so as not to flood the market - and you have a market ground to a HALT. Don't listen to the hype; I heard the same hype in Miami 3 years ago, prices are down 25% since then, and inventory keeps rising. It costs twice as much to buy as it does to rent, so what are people doing?

Because I enjoy scouring Curbed, Streeteasy, and other sites for useful information, ideas, and intelligent dialogue. This isn't useful for anyone in regards to real estate; you guys might as well IM one another if you're going to go back and forth. I think it annoys many to see this thread daily as a recent dicsussion.

curious007, there are 500 other threads on this site. If you don't like this one, don't click on it. I don't like every discussion on Streeteasy and very few on Curbed. How do I deal with it? I don't read it if I don't like it. Seriously, do you call and complain to ESPN when they show curling? What about to the NYTimes when you don't like a particular OpEd column? Are you on the phone right now complaining to editors of NY Magazine because of the Lindsey Lohan spread?

will, can you re-post the inventory article you had on comparing Miami inventory / population to New York? It may help stevejhx understand why Manhattan is different.

stevejhx, have a look at some of the inventory discussions on this thread, it may help you understand why there are many on this board that feel 25% price erosion is tad unrealistic. Urbandigs.com has a good article that may shed some light for you as well.

Not sure if this is the one, but it indicates an inventory of 118,000 in the Miami-Ft Lauderdale area. I recall the number was about 80,000 for Miami alone. Manhattan inventory is approx. 5600, without a lot more room to build. Manhattan population is 1.6 million. I recall Miami population being about 350K.

(Other considerations usually considered in addition to inventory: Tough co-op standards that make up 75 percent of existing market, Manhattan as major world center for finance, entertainment, etc., and foreign investment)

One other thing that I've mentioned before is that Manhattan had the breaks put on its boom by 9-11 just as other areas were taking off. I think if it had not been for this, prices would be even higher than they are. Commentators often state that Manhattan is under-valued relative to other international cities. No doubt the national current downturn will put the breaks to further massive acceleration in Manhattan RE prices, but no reason to expect any severe downturns. Things may just be a little flat for a couple of years, with some upticks, some downticks.. a lot depending on neighborhood, specific building, etc.

So yeah, I'd definitely not buy to flip, but in the long run, things look fine.

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/Florida/Miami-FortLauderdale-MiamiBeach/

Long run defined as at least 3-5 years.

stevejhx, what are your thoughts on where inventory would need to be in order for the market to decline by 25%? Don't you think that the invetory differences between Miami and NYC are pretty glaring?

JuiceMan: you are asking for a response from Stevejhx in the wrong place. You see, this thread might be an reasonable thread for him to post a 5000 word entry that is pertinent to the on-going conversation and thread overall. Which means he'll never post here. I'm sure you can get his inventory predictions by posting your question in the thread about "Baking Cookies At Open Houses."

Maybe he should post under the Blumpkin thread. That would be most appropriate.

I was reading about this multi billionaire real estate investor, Joseph Cayre in thr NY Times. Looks like he's getting close to buying the GM building. He says he's always been criticized by others for buying real estate that is over priced. He also said that over the long term it has proved him to be a very wise man.

It's been a couple of months since this thread started and the sky has not fallen yet. Yeah, we're in the middle of financial crisis, but the housing bubble burst in 2005 and the credit bubble burst in 2007. Manhattan 2008 aint Manhattan 1991.

it does not cost twice as much to buy as to rent, please stop saying that, its a blatant falsehood

Here's an interesting RE Brokers perspective on the current I repeat the current Manhattan RE market. This was from The Gotham bog site
Manhattan Market Snapshot: Confusion Permeates

Here's what I'm seeing in today's Manhattan real estate market:

* Realistic sellers who price "right" are seeing incredible activity on their homes with multiple bids and bidding wars commonplace on those properties that are appropriately priced. We are having yet another highest, best and final bid on one of our properties after more than 60 people visited our open house on Sunday.
* Buyers remain plentiful but more patient in cases where properties have been on the market for 3-4 weeks or more. Again, buyers who have significant experience and knowledge of the current market are snapping up 'special" properties that are priced right.
* Some buyers remain confused and anxious about the national credit crisis and how it will effect our local housing market and overall economy. Many of them are actually angry that the Manhattan real estate market hasn't corrected like many housing markets across the country. For those with a short time horizon for ownership (maybe they only want to own for 2-3 years) the anxiety is higher and perhaps warranted.
* Some sellers (very few that I'm seeing) are still choosing to "test the market" with unrealistic asking prices. Most of my colleagues with 10 or more years of real estate experience are choosing to steer clear of these sellers as overpriced properties languish on the market.
* Experienced Manhattan real estate agents are quite busy. Those newer to the industry appear to be having difficulty earning a living...with exceptions of course for the new "superstars."

So as everyone tries to make sense of what is happening with our local housing market (me included), many continue to buy and sell and many real estate professionals remain busy. In the meantime, angry buyers, testing sellers, and inexperienced real estate agents wait for more clarity.

Would still be nice to hear what stevejhx has to say about the inventory situation outlined by will above. As an economist, he should be and expert on supply and demand and the implications inventory levels have on the market.

In the Spunky post above from the Gotham Blog.
What does priced right mean in this context?

Is the current asking price less than 06/07 Sales prices? 06/07 Asking prices? Are the current "priced right" selling for more or less than last year.

I am finding that the current asking prices are more reasonable than last year in the UWS 2BR/2BTH non-luxury that I am looking for.

Spunky, I think that the broker you quoted is pretty accurate. The market is basically flat. Not hot, not cold, but flat, with low volume. With such little inventory out there, as you yourself very accurately pointed out, I think a flat market with low volume is a very weak sign. Just my opinion. Its when you start hearing "there are no buyers out there, no one at the open house, no bids even on apartments priced 'right' " that it is actually too late. You are either early to this game or you are late, and the penalty for being late, if you need to sell (I know you don't, but for those who do) will probably not be small. No one rings the bell right before the decline, only the day after, and so you have to look for the signs. Amongst the signs to look for, one may be brokers who state the market is still in existence. "Hey, we're still here folks, still open for business, don't panic just yet, everything is fine."

But as UrbanDigs always points out, Manhattan is the last to suffer from a downturn and the first to recover. I think we're in for a season of flatness and stalemate, some price declines. One difference between now and 1991 (in addition to the many factors discussed in the "Manhattan is different" argument), is that more properties are condos now. Much higher closing costs = a pot of money to negotiate about, without directly lowering prices. I think we're going to see more of this, with less stalemate and little actual pricing change.

The national economy will likely take some huge hits this week with some bad data points, but I think we may be much closer to hitting bottom in that regard. The Feds seem more determined than ever to avoid a deep downturn. The recent talk about a new federal effort similar to the 30s to avoid foreclosures is particularly promising. See below. A rising tide lifts all boats, even those like Manhattan, that are not sinking.

One of the great things about a divided gov (Repubs in WH, Dems in Congress) is neither wants to take responsibility for throwing little old ladies and families out of their houses, if they can avoid it, and they can.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/business/24view.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Just to clarify, my closing costs theory is mostly applicable to new construction. Individual sellers probably don't have an incentive to keep a price high just to keep it high.

More re what I mentioned in an earlier post.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23321827/for/cnbc/

Will, it sounds like you are trying to talk yourself into believing something. Don't do that.

The four most dangerous words to an investor are "it's different this time." Don't ever forget that.

Aren't we all dmag2020? I am backing up my position. I think it makes more sense than a lot of the back and forth dribble on this board.

I think that getting hung up on using or not using comments like, "It's different this time" is idiotic. Manhattan is much better positioned now than it has ever been to withstand national macro-economic trends and stay strong. But let me make it clear: I am not in the group that believes that these trends do not matter.

Before I bought my place, I hoped that prices in Manhattan would come down. But I always said to people, "not too far down, though, because that would mean that the rest of my business is tanking!!!" I am in a business that has little to do with real estate, but a lot to do with the national economy. That's why the issue of national macroeconomic impact is so important to me. And yes, from a very personal standpoint. I do have a dog in this fight... actually a couple of them!

what up spunky?

How ya doing Urbandigs?

tired. I want Ambac to get their $3Bn, and the market to rally like everything is fixed so I can short more. Hate waiting.

Unless you enjoy keeping your eyes glued to the computer screen all day I'd be careful shorting at this stage but then again I'm not an expert in short term investments.

been short financials for 7 months via SKF and long gold...as long as credit markets are broken and housing is pressured, I have little doubts how the story will unfold. If you notice, rallies dont last long. There will be great long term buying opportunities in near future

So bad economic news has been good for your investments. I don't know of to many Gold investors or short sellers who agree with those who view the glass half filled. Good luck with your short positions.

Yes, Spunky. You can make money if markets fall when you see such clear signs of economic trouble. I have my stops in to protect gains no matter what, so dont worry about me! Looks like we will finally get the bond insurer news today. Should be good for at least 300-400 point rally over next few days. Then you short again. It doesnt change the macro picture.

ps: trades! not 5 year investments. You know Im a trader Spunky! cmon now.

Sorry, my bad for some reason I thought you were a full time RE Broker.

ha..so now if I HOLD an e-trade account open where I have positions and stop losses in place, I can no longer function as a real estate agent. Yep, thats in line with your reputation here.

you never did answer my question from a while back:

spunky - Im curious to hear your thoughts on this units pricing on 32nd floor with 3 exposures compared to a larger unit on 33rd floor, 4BR/3BTH, this is 3BR/3BTH, and 275 sft smaller. The other sold for 2.4M, so lets assume $1200/sft to be safe and multiply by 275 sft which equals $330K. Yet, this 32nd floor unit is asking $600,000 less than what that other one sold for and is not in contract yet?

http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=921679&rentalperiod=&SearchType=quick&Region=NYC

No not at all. How many times during the hour do you check your trades or change your buy loss stops.

This is exactly the kind of apartment that depresses me as I look. Admittedly, I'm searching below 23rd St, but still... One after another I see these apartments that leave me baffled. Who comes up with these retarded layouts and gets everyone to act as if it's all normal? Who spends over $2MM to live like this? We've all gone mad. And this design fiasco is the norm--not the exception! This above apartment is configured with a full bath for the master bedroom, and another to be shared by the other 2 tiny bedrooms. A third full bath is inexplicably plopped in the middle of the entry foyer. Perhaps a guest powder room would be nice, but who is ever going to shower in this bathroom in the entry foyer? Wasted space and money. And this place doesn't have space to waste...just look at the cramped galley kitchen--for $2MM+!. That's the same kitchen I had in an entry-level 1-bedroom apartment. And where are you supposed to put a dining table if you also want a livingroom and space to watch TV? Of course, you could turn a bedroom into a TV room, but that still begs the question: why would you need the 3d full bath? Who comes up with this stuff?? And who buys it? I don't get it. RE is making me very cranky this week. I am completely frustrated by the poor quality of apartments available--either they are beat to crap and seller's still want too much $ for them, or they have these useless layouts at extraordinary prices with suburban taste finishes that offend no one but also appeal to no one. I had to vent. Sorry.

Urbandigs with all your trading smarts why don't you just trade stocks for a living. You know the future of economy better than mostly anyone so it should be a cake walk for you. Sure better than having to deal with non serious buyers and those stupid sellers who don't share your enthusiasm on how much this economy sucks.
You're like an ATM machine. Who's better than you?

kylewest I agree. If urbandigs would concentrate more on either trading stocks, selling RE, writing on his blog site, or video games he wouldn't of asked such a silly question. Focus Urbandigs, focus. A bird in the the hand is better than two in the bush or A living dog is better than a dead lion.

spunky, way to latch on to someone else's comment as a way of avoiding a completely valid question. kylewest was only venting on how ridiculous/agressive pricing still is, courtesy of some sellers and brokers. The layout isn't great, etc., but these are the kinds of places people WERE shelling out $2.4m for not that long ago. urbandigs' point is that this stuff just isn't moving like it used to in the current market. But he's giving you a chance to explain it. We're all ears man...

No one will ever change Spunky's mind. Trying is a total waste of time and energy. Just ignore him in the same way that he ignores reason and logic.

bjw how can one answer the question without knowing exactly what unit # Urbandigs is referring to. What unit # sold for 2.4 mil. What was the layout of the one that sold for 2.4. What renovations if any were made. If urbandigs can provide the unit # with the layout and support the fact that this particular unit sold for 2.4 mil and is exactly the same or very similar to the one that can't even sell for 600k less then I will try to answer this. Need more particulars Urbandigs
I'm all ears!

32A - 1824 sft asking 1.799M

28C - 2100 sft sold for 2.4M on April 2007.

Give the unit the benefit of the doubt and take the 275 sft and lets multiply by $1,200/sft and you get $330,000. So, lets take that off the 2.4M to give us 2,070,000. But this unit 4 floors higher is asking another 270,000 less and is not in contract yet. A few weeks ago you challenged me to provide a listing that is asking less than a comparable sold in 2007. Its safe to say this is probably NOT the only one out there.

Then you got this at 200 RSB

APT 45B - http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=943647

Its asking 2.95M. Yet, Apt 38B sold for $3.125M in March of 2007 and is exactly the same but 7 floors lower.

As for my trading, I dont have the stomach to trade equities full time, it takes a toll on you after 6 years of trading. But I do dabble. And just so you know I am unbiased, todays news, especially for MBIA, is good. It adds clarity and certainty to some degree and eliminates the threat of a shockwave to financial system if they got downgraded. However, it doesnt solve the very problems we face, but hopefully helps to fix the credit markets a bit. We'll have to wait to see the effect it has but certainly wall st should rally for a few more days on this good news. It would have been real scary if these guys got downgraded.

1760 second ave is like 5 years old. Basically, all units are still in great condition. So renovations shouldnt affect it. Layout of course should.

spunky - Im curious to hear your thoughts on this units pricing on 32nd floor with 3 exposures compared to a larger unit on 33rd floor, 4BR/3BTH, this is 3BR/3BTH, and 275 sft smaller. The other sold for 2.4M, so lets assume $1200/sft to be safe and multiply by 275 sft which equals $330K. Yet, this 32nd floor unit is asking $600,000 less than what that other one sold for and is not in contract yet--Urbandigs

urbandigs in reference to 1760 second ave I think you really need to do research into the difference in layout between 28C and 32A. I think it's unfair and quite frankly silly to give everyone the impression the the two units are basically the same with a minor sq ft difference.. Please do some research into this and see what you can come up with. Also would you be so kind to also do research into the sale of unit 33C. Is unit 33C similar or different in layout as to unit 28C? What is the square footage of unit 33C and unit 28C. Once again what price did each sell for?
Please can someone let me know any info on both unit 28C and 33C and the differences of these units compared to 32A. Another question should 32A be compared to 33A. Please let me know what 33A and 32A sold for? Why are you comparing thee A line to the C line in this building?
I am quite confident you have more access to the floor plans of 28C, 33C as well as 32A. We are all curious to see the differences in floor plans. Anyone have any info on these 3 units?

It would be nice to have a RE agent who knows the building at 1760 second Avenue. Any RE agents out there who sold in this building. Who understands the differences in the C line compared to the A lines. Nice to get their perspective on this well.