where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

Urbandigs/Spunky/Whoever,

All other things being equal, what kind of premium would you put on a 2BR/2BTH Corner apt on a high floor, with split bedrooms, and windows in kitchen and bathroom, as opposed to say a 2 BR 2BTH not on corner, on a low floor, and without split bedrooms, and no windows in kitchen or bathroom. Would it be reasonable for the lower fl. 2 BR to be $980/sf and the higher fl corner, etc. to be $1100/sf. Let's assume the higher floor has great light, the lower not so great light. Not sure there is a way to quantify but just wanted to get your thoughts. (Assume they are both about the same size).

Noah, patience is a virtue. As Carter Worth said, the markets will meander for a bit confounding bears and bulls before the next leg down.

Spunky is good entertainment when it gets slow eh? Never fails. Puaahahahaa.

Wait... wait... Let me beat you to it. My rent is due!!! Ok, dun worry, among all of my monthly payments I make, it's the one that makes me smile. =D

MMafia when I receive the rent check it makes me smile as well. :)

Not to beat a dead horse in reference to 1760 second avenue but all 4 bedroom C line apts sold over 2.4 mil.

I don't see any A line 3/4 bedrooms in this building selling over 2 mil.

I also don't see any 4 bedroom C line apts sell for less than 2.4 mil

Urbandigs not sure how you do comparables for your clients but it sure is innovative and creative.

I'm all ears man!

MMAfia:

Long time, no write - nice to hear from you again!

And a special 'shout out' to everyone for passing the 1,200 post count on this thread.

spunky - your stretching. how do you respond to 200 RSD? EXACT SAME LINE! I notice you left that out of your response. Convenient.

Man you are a defensive little creature! You really are just not worth the time. Bye spunky, you wont see me here anymore.

kylewest, I very much understand your frustration. We went through the same thing, probably looked at over 60+ apartments during our search. 70% or more were total crap. We just about gave up and then found the perfect place (for us). Hang in there, you'll find the right fit.

Urbandigs let's stick with 1760 second avenue. If I spent time on 200RSD I am quite confident I would prove you wrong just as I did with 1760 2nd Avenue.
Your voodoo comp analysis is quite entertaining and creative. To the poor schnooks who believe your comps I wish them all the luck.
Good luck with your short positions. If the the stock market dives you will be rich. You need to ramp up your negative economic copy and paste articles on your blog site. It's really working. Those that read your stuff will sell their stocks, drive down the market and you make money. It's that easy.

will, that's really tough to quantify, as you suggested. Maybe the difference per sq ft would be about what you have it at (~120), but those exact numbers obviously depend on a lot more (location, amenities, etc.). But you're right, there's no doubt most people prefer corner apartments, more light/windows, split bedrooms, higher floor (though I'm one of the few who prefers to be closer to the 2nd floor).

spunky, wow - "if I spent time on 200RSD I am quite confident I would prove you wrong." You should use that one in court sometime.

Going back to comparators selling for lower in 08 than 07. In the Charleston, 18B sold for $1,750k and 20B has just gone off into contract for $1,575k. Same floor lay-out and 2 floors higher per the website.

However, I would also caution that even this is somewhat flawed. The building is now complete and the developers effectively selling off the final apartments so does this statistic alone result in an undebatable view that the market is falling.

I'm sure there are similar other cases where popular new buildings are selling above the sponsors expectations and prices are being raised from the initial offering prices.

Is the market surging forward and breaking new records - definitely not. Is it flattish? Seems that way. Is it at an inflexion point before tranding downwards? Not clear. Is it pausing for breath before racing upwards. Doubtful.

kylewest - I agree with your assessment.

For me, the idea of living in a high rise condo with low ceilings (which this clearly has) is so antithetical to the notion of feeling at home. I don't know how you could raise a happy family.

antithetical---wow

"Bye spunky, you wont see me here anymore."

spunky, do you think you scared urbandigs' away for good or will he will pull an aboutready and come back?

Juiceman this is not the first time he's said goodbye. About 5 weeks ago on this thread soon after your post this was a quote from Urbandigs

"ok - Im done! Damn, it sucked me in for a while"

We'll see if comes back. I hope he does.

He just might might be a little nauseous from all the pessimistic economic information he has ingested from Nouriel Roubini. Give him some time to regurgitate that stuff on his blog site and he'll be just fine.

Spunky is right. Once urbandigs gets tired of talking down the markets on his own site, he will be back to spread the cheer here. I don't get it, a broker that constantly talks down real estate, and spends all of his time repeating negative market news on his blog. To the extent that he gets a lot of traffic, he should be touting all the positives of Manhattan real estate, and save his opinions on the state of our nation's "credit crisis" for another venue. I am a business man, I want to make money. Manhattan real estate is a great investment, and the reason why more people don't own, rather than give ridiculous arguments about how you can rent your way to wealth, is because they can't afford to buy. If they could, they would.
Bottom line, The Spring will be great for Manhattan real estate. Foreigners will be out in force, fundamentals are strong, inventory is low. And for all the renters who rent for two or three more years waiting for manhattan to tank while they make a killing in equities or gold, that is just a childish fantasy. I think Urbandigs is probably a nice guy who means well, but being a bear and repeating info from Bloomberg or CNBC does not make him "market savy." Also, I assure that the Fed is aware of everything that digs writes about and is doing what he can to resolve the situation to the extent he can. I prefer a blog that offers insights as to where the next developing area might be, or what buildings are good value..stuf that pertains to real estate in Manhattan. Roubini has been predicting a downturn since 05, the guy is a putz, but remember, he earns his living as agloom and doomer, so the more stark his predictions, the better. He is tenured, so he can't get fired for being wrong. I prefer Sam Zell or Donald Trump if I am going to look for opinions on residential real estate.

ok so I am weak and must respond.

MH23 - that is such a BS statement and you know it. Man, why do you people keep putting words in my mouth and claim that I talk 'CRASH' in Manhattan when I dont? You read my site, so you know I was bullish on Manhattan real estate and published posts discussing WHY from 2005 to early 2007! Its right there. Go read it. Where the f*ck were you then huh. Or are you one of those guys that are happy when talk is bullish, but get pissed if talk turns negative. At least I adapt to what I notice going on around me; I know many people both in real estate and in equities that got killed because they believed so deeply in their bullish investment that they denied the changes occurring around them.

And to state I simply cut & paste, which of course is true to an extent as I discuss macro news as it unfolds and provide sources, is a useless statement altogether; who cares, its still news! Every blog site out there refers to sources for their content. Remember the bond insurers? I discussed this in October, over 4 months ago, when the herd was not discussing them yet as I saw the sector getting killed:

http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/10/abx_stabilizes_mtg_insurers_fa.html

How about the credit crunch and tighter lending standards before the herd was discussing it: No prob. 13 months ago when I was still bullish on NYC real estate and publicly described the frenzy going on during that bonus season.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/01/credit_crunch_l.html

I turned cautious on Manhattan in July of 2007 when in my opinion the credit world changed; that is when the focus of urbandigs changed to macro. I'll turn positive on Manhattan real estate when certainty returns, national housing market fundamentals trend positive, credit markets normalize, and the economy is no longer pressured towards rising unemployment. These things could all have an affect on Manhattan real estate, and there is nothing you can say to argue it. Absolutely nothing. At least I say whats on my mind, give solid advice even if thaht means advising a buyer to wait & save more, and I dont cheerlead for the sake of procuring more business or getting a deal done! Some people seek this type of service.

I think you all are being a bit hard on Digs. Fact is, Urbandigs happens to be my broker. We've been involved now in negotiations over 3 different apartments on the Upper East Side.

Guess what...i've lost all 3 apartments...

And you know why?

It's because Digs is perhaps to most honest, true-spoken person i've ever met in this scum-bag overun industry. Do you know how rare it is for a Broker to tell you if you are bidding too much? Most brokers push you to bid as high as you can go...to earn a comission...but Digs would rather see his clients get a good deal.

Digs gives his opinion on the Economy on his site. Doesn't mean he is right. Doesn't mean he is wrong. But damn...I respect him for putting his ass on line day and day out with his predictions.

What Digs does takes guts...what's Spunky does(hiding behind a keyboard and making baseless arguments) is gutless...

Not sure if that's such a grand endorsement! Guess it depends on how much you wanted the apts, where you want to live, etc. :-)

It is a Grand Endorsement. I want to "great apartment" at a "great price"...not just a "great apartment".

Most brokers I know are more concerned with lining there own pockets than ensuring a client "does well". Not Digs...Digs wants you to get a great deal...and goes the extra mile to assure that it happens.

every buy-side situation is unique & personal. The luxury of time and ability allows you to pick & choose until you get what you want at the price you want.

Urbandigs, I think the insults etc that you get on this board are a great compliment. They show that your words matter and are taken very seriously.

Just curious if there is a "Sarbanes-Oxley"-like dimension, though. In other words, trying to shield liability for irrational exhuberance. I had heard that some brokers have in fact been sued.

gluck75 give us all a break and stop wasting Urbandigs time. He's probably to naive to figure out you're not a serious buyer. Talk about gutless you don't have any. Otherwise you wouldn't of chickened out and lost all three deals. Keep coming in with stupid low ball offers and keep thinking Urbandigs can convince the seller to lower their price. The ultimate dynamic duo here . One is chicken shit to buy yet hides behind low ball offers pretending that he's actually serious. The other to stupid to figure this out.

Urbandigs/Spunky: Do you guys know each other and is this just banter between old friends or is all this as nasty as it appears?

How about a phone call or taking this offline? 1225 comments and counting.

spunky - it's "you wouldn't HAVE chickened out", not "of chickened out". And it's "TOO naive / stupid", not "to naive / stupid". You are an illiterate fool.

wow. Spunky you are an angry/bitter creature aren't you. Let me guess, 50 and divorced?

spunky, value your input on these boards, but the name calling is a little personal/childish, no? And lowball offers are definitely not stupid if one gets accepted. Maybe you think all buyers are stupid and all sellers are brilliant, but I can assure that there is no correlation between intelligence and being in one situation versus the other.

Spunky's comments could not more off-base.

I also think he may need a therapist to start working on his anger.

gluck75, out of curiosity what % are you losing these bids by?

"Bye spunky, you wont see me here anymore."_ Urbandigs

"ok - Im done! Damn, it sucked me in for a while"--Urbandigs

Just a sample of a RE broker that's sticks to his word.

oh I get it - Spunky, you are trying to talk down urbandigs, like you say I talk down Manhattan real estate...ohhhhh. Keep it coming, more publicity for the brand and another view into the complex workings of spunky's brain. It seems everyone is very impressed Spunky.

We lost this last one by about 1%.

"Bye spunky, you wont see me here anymore."_ Urbandigs

gluck75, this is not a crack at urbandigs, but if you really want the place don't let 1% keep you from getting it. I think some people get caught up with "getting the best deal" and forget that $10-30k amortized over 30 years means zippo in the long term. Add that to the aggravation of losing a bid, continuing a search, frustrating your wife, etc, and it just isn't worth it. In my opinion when you find something you like, that you will be really happy in, and it is in the ballpark when it comes to price, don’t let 1% of additional mortgage come between you and what you want.

Your broker is looking after you which is a good thing, but this decision is purely emotional and needs to come from you, not your broker.

JuiceMan,

Point well taken and much appreciated. I think you hit the nail on the head.

gluck75, so which is it: do you feel regret for losing out on the last place, or do you feel like the extra 1% really wasn't worth it?

I'm pissed about the 1 percent, but there was in play here as well.

Urbandigs. No hard feelings. You have a right to do whatever you want, and your blog has some good info, sometimes. All I am saying is that I share the opinion of others who view your posts on Manhattan as gloom and doom. Maybe you are right and I am wrong, and maybe Manhattan will tank. Also, maybe you represent sellers and therefor you appeal to those who want prices to tank. No big deal.

gluck75 who was your broker? Sounds like he really dropped the ball on this one.

Juice - that was a bidding war situation with a deadline, and all my clients know that I'm there as a guide and resource, and that in the end it is entirely their call!! Even Gluck75 was aware of this. Frustrating yes, but in the end he is a very savvy prospective buyer who is aware of uncertainties around him. Bidding comfortably is a very solid buyer attribute, and it challenges me to work harder to get him a great deal.

mh23 - manhattan wont tank (for NYC, I would say 15-20% is tanking; 30% for markets like Miami) unless there is fierce seller competition which would mean a jump in inventories and a fall in demand. What could bring that on is a prolonged recession that brings major job losses with it, a continuing dysfunction of credit markets restricting access to cheap capital, and tightening lending standards. Stocks falling due to this as a negative wealth effect hits buyer confidence but is less of a factor than the three I just noted.

oh that's right never mind. I should of known. Well gluck75 good luck on you your next one.

Again - you should HAVE known. Idiot.

I've asked this in one of the Williamsburg threads, but given everything else that's going on here, I figure it's actually fairly appropriate:
I think most people believe most of Manhattan won't tank (as per urbandigs' definition - a drop of 15% or more). But what do people think about "prime" Williamsburg (northside, close to the Bedford Ave stop on the L)? I've talked to a few people offline, as I'm concerned about the accumulation of a ton of supply thanks to all the developments there, but curious what others have to say about it.

now now cmsuk don't be mad be happy. Loser

"Do you know how rare it is for a Broker to tell you if you are bidding too much? Most brokers push you to bid as high as you can go...to earn a commission...but Digs would rather see his clients get a good deal."

Digs, I was reacting to this comment from gluck which I interpreted (incorrectly it seems) that he was relying on you to know when he was bidding too much. I'm not here to play "arm chair agent" and second guess your job. I don't think that is fair. I've been in gluck's situation before and was merely commenting based on my personal experience.

"and it challenges me to work harder to get him a great deal."

What is a great deal? Is a great deal a certain % off of ask? Or is it based on comps? Or is it getting your dream place for a reasonable price?

Juice - great question and greater comment before by the way! More of an art, but if the product has most of the permanent features that pay off at resale: location, light, views, raw space...and we can get at a ppsf or pps at or below recent comps in the building, I consider that a great deal.

Tricky part is quantifying the value of a renovation, or a lower floor, or a slightly different layout from a past sold in the same building that is the same # of rooms, beds, baths and hopefully size. When brokers start looking outside the building to rationalize an asking price, I begin to question their opinion on the market value of a property.

What is market value anyway? Its such a hard # to quantify. Its simply what someone is willing to pay for a property. Do you think the housing market in Manhattan right now is HIGHER than on Feb 27th of 2007? Do you think its LOWER? What does the buyer pool think?

Here is the way I look at it. After watching the market for a while, say at least 6 months, and seeing at least 15 properties, you begin to get an idea of your price point, what you should be getting for your budget, and more importantly, what a good deal probably is when it pops up. The comps should be used to VALIDATE the good deal by confirming that the product is trading in-line with other similar apts in the same building in the past 6 months or so.

"Bye spunky, you wont see me here anymore."_ Urbandigs

"ok - Im done! Damn, it sucked me in for a while"--Urbandigs

Are sellers and brokers now having buyers asking to include in the contract an escape if the financing doesn't come through?

I've been communicating offline w/ a prospective buyer who has an excellent rental situation and received advice from Noah that was in her best interest and ran counter to his own. I'd say that makes him the most honest broker in NYC.

gluck75, I agree w/ JuiceMan that 1% isn't worth it, but it sounds like you only found out what you lost by after your best-and-final. You and I seem to both be looking at apts that aren't necessarily super-prime (though not junk, either) and I see our part of the market turning our way for a while. I know you were considering the Charleston and that building is on the decline. Unless I find a place that is absolutely perfect for me, I think I have some breathing room to bid conservatively.

bjw2103, FWIW, put me on the list of people who think WB, even prime, is being overdeveloped and headed for a fall. There were just price chops across the board at the Metropolitan, the Edge hasn't even started, etc.

Thanks tenemental. My thinking is somewhat in line with yours, I'm just curious/nervous as to how much it's going to fall and if I wouldn't be reselling at a loss even 6 years from now. As for the Metropolitan, I think that's partly due to its location - it's not as good as several other developments. And the 2BR layouts aren't very impressive at all.

Beyond the overdevelopment and the fact that so much of the interest in WB is hype-based, which almost always wanes eventually, the tremendous transaction costs w/ new dev and 10 year countdown on most tax abatements are going to require buyers to have a really long time horizon in order to break even. You'll need 5% appreciation for transaction costs and another 6% for a sell broker at the time you sell, and buyers will be looking at considerably higher carrying costs as the abatement winds down, which will reflect in their bids. I know you know all this stuff, I just don't see the numbers adding up in WB unless you're thinking very long term.

Here's a thought... Can anyone at all flip in WB? On the water you've got two new towers coming at Northside Piers (assuming they sell the 1st one) and The Edge. Inland you've got how many new developments at different stages?

"Unless I find a place that is absolutely perfect for me, I think I have some breathing room to bid conservatively."

tenemental, I'm not suggesting that everyone should bid over ask or not be conservative with bids if you have that opportunity. My advice is for highly educated buyers (which I believe are people who have been in the market long enough to know what is and is not priced correctly – you, kylewest, and gluck included). If you come across something that you feel is priced correctly (or buyer favorable), there is a high probability that someone else has recognized it as "a good deal" as well. At that point it may make sense to try another approach. That approach could be to bid over ask (when the time is right) at a level that is substantial to the seller and indifferent to the buyer. My opinion is that that number is around 1-2%. Another way to think of this is if you are looking at a place for say $1.25M would you feel any differently about it if it were priced at $1.275? If the answer is no, than you may have just figured out a way to make sure you get the place you want at a reasonable price.

Remember, asking price is a guess. I’m a firm believer that educated buyers have a better handle on the market than most sell side brokers. Understanding a range of market values will keep you from focusing on ask. It takes way to much time, effort, and emotion to sift through all of the overpriced crap in this market. When you find the one that’s right, don’t lose sleep over a few amortized dollars.

Agreed, JuiceMan. If I find a place I love that is priced appropriate to comps and what I feel is appropriate to the market, location, condition, etc., I may bid a bit under to start the process, but I will not blow it just to save a few % relative to ask.

My point is that I feel I can proceed outside of the pressures of a frenzy and be more rational now than this market has allowed in recent years.

Based on their shared history of so-close-but-lost bids, it occurs to me that the Gluck75/urbandigs relationship may be homoerotic in nature . . . a protracted escapade of male bonding . . . I'm assuming of course that Gluck75 is male . . . (if female, then delete "homo").

Which 1% should I not let prevent me from buying an apartment? Is it the 1% between 1.00m and 1.01m? The 1% between 1.01m and 1.02m? The 1% between 1.02m and 1.03m? If you're in a situation where you know an extra 1% could win you the apartment, that might be a different situation. If you're in a bidding war though, there has to be a line. In that case, every time you raise your offer by 1%, the same reasoning implies that you should raise you're offer an additional 1% if necessary, and so on. If the price for anything is more than you think it is worth, you shouldn't pay it, even if it is just the tiniest bit more.

You are correct billshiers; you shouldn't pay more than you think it is worth. My point is that 1) asking price isn't necessarily what it is worth and 2) 1-2% over a 30 amortization isn't "worth" much, so don't let it get in the way of what you want.

As to your other question regarding which 1%, there is a line. The line is the asking price. If you have multiple bidders on a good, reasonably priced property, chances are that the winner of the bid will be pretty close to or above ask especially in a last and final type of situation.

Juiceman - I generally agree with you. Asking price is somebody else's number though. As a buyer, you don't want to pay more than the Seller is asking unless you have to, but you should always be willing to pay up to what you feel the property is worth, regardless of asking price. If you think the apartment is worth more than the asking price and that a bid above ask is a good strategic move, I don't have a problem with that. The flip side is that you should always be willing to walk away if the price is more than what you think an apartment is worth, no matter how small the difference. Even though 1-2% isn't much over 30 years, if that 1-2% puts it above what you think the apartment is worth in your view, I think it is still reasonable to not do the deal.

Continuing the grand tradition of reposting pieces of Doug Heddings' True Gotham blog. These observations may be worth keeping in mind when bidding...

* The phones have definitely quieted down from buyers in the sub $3M market as interest rates have climbed almost a full point in the past 4 weeks. Many experts including our very own Dan Shlufman suspect that interest rates will come down again in the coming weeks.
* We remain incredibly busy with Co-op Board applications and contracts for the deal flow that took place in February but new business is coming more slowly. I typically have between 5 and 20 exclusive properties/sellers that I'm representing at any given time and I currently have 2.
* Relative to the same period last year, I am definitely seeing a slower market with fewer transactions taking place. No great dips in prices yet but fewer buyers.
* Inventory remains very tight causing less impact to the decrease in the number of buyers.
* I experienced the first ramifications in my business of the sub-prime meltdown as tighter lending standards across the board for all borrowers slow deal flow (ex. Chase generated a commitment letter for a purchaser of mine who has twice the purchase price of the apartment in liquid assets that made the sale of their current apartment a condition of fulfilling requirements to procure the mortgage...this would NEVER have happened this time last year but I'm happy to report that Chase is removing that contingency at the borrower's request. It still has delayed the purchase process.)

So the Manhattan real estate market remains stable and continues to churn but not nearly at the pace that I experienced this same period last year.

Short answer: NOPE. Long answer: No way in Hell. Couldn't be a worse time to buy. Great time to sell, however. A better time to buy MIGHT be when all of the unemployed residents w/ no savings decide that Florida is warmer and more affordable on unemployment. Just a wild guess. I can back it up with all sorts of statistics regarding the eventual collapse of the economy but who wants to hear all that?

Oh yeah, the OP who called every one who was early "idiots".

Econ101:

I'm the OP - so why don't we actually review my first post again, shall we, hmmmmmm....?

"Dow below 11,000 by the end of 2007!!"

We're nowhere near 11,000...

"Housing market down 20%! - no - 30%! - no - 40%! - no - MORE! - by the end of 2007!!!"

Meaning the Manhattan housing market, of course. Is it down by 20%, 30%, 40%, ot more yet?

"The subprime/Alt-A debacle would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Well, that didn't happen...

"A bad bonus season would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Well, that didn't happen, either...

"High inventory would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Well, that didn't happen, EITHER...

"Manhattan real estate sellinmg for fifty cents on the dollar by 1 January 2008!"

Well, that didn't happen, EITHER!!!...

It was ALL GONNA CRASH by the end of 2007!!!

Yeah, and all the people who wrote about that on earlier boards could "...back it up with all sorts of statistics regarding the eventual collapse of the economy..." as well. Sadly, they were wrong.

My point in starting this entire thread had nothing to do with the assertion that Manhattan residential real estate had a highly likely chance of dropping in value - perhaps for a prolonged period as it did in the early 90's (and perhaps not). I think it will drop in value, and I'm looking forward to some additional buying opportunities because of it! What I objected to the hand wringing, drama queen hysterics I saw people posting, inferring that the Manhattan residential real estate market would be a total and absolute debacle - people were actually idiotic enough to assert (and this wasn't posturing - they actually believed it!) that it would down to 50% of its value by the end of 2007.

An informed discussion is one thing. People who post opinions such as "...A better time to buy MIGHT be when all of the unemployed residents w/ no savings decide that Florida is warmer and more affordable on unemployment. Just a wild guess..." ARE idiotic - if they're not just being snarky, but REALLY believe it!

"I can back it up with all sorts of statistics regarding the eventual collapse of the economy but who wants to hear all that?"

Let's hear it Econ101. I would love to hear how the collaspe of the economy is going to impact Manhattan real estate, and please, no opining about credit markets, FL real estate, interest rates, etc. without linking to some sort real impact you think it will have on Manhattan.

Euro topped a buck fitty and the Fed will ease even further next month. The weak dollar is NYC real estate's BFF. This town just might skirt the recession, but the days of 30% gains per year are way over. Having said that, the coop market will hold its prices far better than condo market b/c they largely avoided buyers with trick mortgages.

A subject near and dear to me, the market distinction between prime, luxury Manhattan and the rest of NYC. This article focuses primarily on the slowdown of sales for outer borough new construction (WB and LIC, look out), but I see softening spreading to average (non-luxury) Manhattan apartments as well (see my Doug Hedding's repost above).

This was Curbed's "Morning Credit Crunch" feature today:

http://www.nysun.com/article/72033

Just curious how you define "prime, luxury Manhattan real estate." Would a 2BR 2BTH 1.3 million condo in a nice doorman building with a lot of amenities count, or are we just talking about 15 Central Park West and the Plaza?

Will, it's a little hard to say without knowing the size (ppsf) and neighborhood, but i think I know what you're getting at, and for my considerations of luxury vs. average vs. marginal, I'd say yes. Let me localize it: If you own at the Christadora House or Fillmore in the East Village and are trying to sell, I think you'll do better, relative to your own comps, trying to to sell this year than you would if you were selling the unit at 544 E. 11th St., which is on the 3rd floor of a perfectly fine (but not at all luxurious) walk up building. If you bought in 06 on Perry St. in the West Village and needed to sell this year, you'd be in better shape (again, relative to your own purchase price) than you would be selling the same unit on Christopher St. or far West 10th St.

whoa! What happened to the "recent 100 posts" feature?

JuiceMan: We added pagination to our talk pages to ease the pain of reading 1,000+ comments on a single page. If you look at the bottom of the talk thread you will see prev and next buttons (just like on the sale/rental search pages.) We also added sorting! Clicking on the orange text on the top of the thread lets you toggle between viewing the most recent comments or the oldest comments first.

Thanks streeteasy. It is a bit awkward to read the most recent post at the top of the page and then scroll down to the bottom of the page to post a comment. I think it is easier to post a comment at the same time you are reading the recent posts. In my opinion, the limitation of viewing the last 100 posts feature was a little better.

or maybe move the comment box to the top?

Juiceman is right. It's less user-friendly now.

streeteasy, can you add a "last" option to the right of "next" so that we can jump to the last page while still having the most recent posts at the bottom near the "add your comment" box? Thanks.

Juiceman and Tenemental's suggestions are good, streeteasy! Please change it back to how it was OR follow their suggestions. Thank you, streeteasy!! We love you.

clunky, how's C and MER doing? better than your OTB portfolio I'm sure.

getting scary out there in creditville...alt-a, muni market disruptions, margin calls..apparently it seems the national housing market continuing to fall and spread to higher debt classes actually means something to those holding mortgage backed securities.

who would have guessed?

it's definitely getting scary out there... many hedge funds blowing up thanks to the muni bond mess and disappearance of easy credit.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=665836810&play=1#

great video. people are acting like monkeys!!! daddy are we there yet??????

Freakin idiots.

The muni bond story is beautiful. The investment banks and the fed squeezing each other's balls and seeing who'll say uncle.

streeteasy.com posse:

This is now an excellent solution. Thank you for taking peoples opinion's into account. Well done!

I'm curious, would like to hear R/E pros' takes on this:
The dollar is worth 10% less than a year ago. Although
there's no straight line here, in general it has been on
a steady downhill slope.

Hypothetically, I'm a European investor whose attraction
to NYC R/E is its exchange-rate-caused discount.

If the dollar is down 10% during the period my real estate
appreciates 10%-17%, shouldn't I be kicking myself for
buying a loser?

At some point should this not enter the psychology of
the vaunted "foreign investor"?

Lowery, GREAT point. It won't, but it should. What will happen is foreigners will say to themselves eventually the dollar will reverse its course, and cheap real estate in new york overrides currency speculation. No one is sure which economy will outperform the other. In fact, if interest rates spike here per inflation, the dollar will strengthen vs the euro/pound, and that along with a declining us economy, along with higher rates causing the carry of real estate to spike, will cause a lack of demand among domestic buyers, and a surge of supply from foreigners, whose economy will be lagging as well, and who will be capitalizing on the stronger dollar. So, I think although fear of a weaker dollar won't cause second thoughts, I think, just my opinion, the eventual strengthening of the dollar will stimulate selling.

Thanks for that, dmag2020. I'd be curious to hear other opinions on this. I have imagined a different scenario than yours -- the foreign investors stop buying, out of concern that they can't make their money back. OTOH, if the dollar ever stages a comeback against the Euro, even if Manhattan R/E remained flat, the currency would generate profit. But if R/E tanks and the Euro tanks, they're flat. If R/E doubles in 10 years and the Euro tanks against the USD ........ whoah!

I have read all this thread with interest because I have looked in the rear view mirror waiting for the late '80s/early '90s to recur. Oops.... they didn't recur. Emotional considerations aside, gloom and doom v. bullishness, what is really happening now that's possibly being ignored by both those of us looking too much in the rear view mirror instead of ahead AND by those looking ahead with no perspective other than the here, now and more recent post-2001 past? One leg of these arguments I feel is fatally flawed, even though it's never actually articulated, is an axiomatic notion that Manhattan's market is different from all other local markets, not only in the US, but in the world (Tokyo and Hong Kong, for instance, have experienced crashes in the past). Granted Williamsburg is "different" than the Upper East Side, but it seems to me that all local markets in this greater metro area are linked, being spillovers and move-ups one to and fro the other. Unlike any of the posters here so far, I am actually struck by the similarities between the Manhattan condo market and the local US markets experiencing ....... dysfunction. But I do not work in the real estate business, so I'd be interested to read what those people whose 70-hour work weeks are the New York City real estate market can say, other than just, "It's different. My clients are rich." How much richer than Joe Blow in Stockton, California is rich enough to comfortably buy a $1.5 mil. condo? It came as an absolute shock to me to recently learn that a high-income young professional I work with at times in Manhattan purchased their home with an interest-only mortgage. Certainly that person can afford the home and the home is well located, but it does sound an awful lot like a purchase only made possible by exotic mortgage products, and therefore a deal vulnerable to anything going wrong. Is that one person the exception or the norm?

The high-income young professional bought a condo, not a coop, right? And how much was the down payment? Credit history of the person? I think the scenario of this young professional is relatively common for current condo buyers.
And yes, the current condo scene in NYC is not great.

bump

...can someone tell the sellers (especially new devs.) there is a downturn and they should lower the price,...

Citigroup on track for lowest close in over 9 years

ROTFL

I have to say that the last> page solution for this thread doesn't seem to be working great. Not only is it another click, but the thread seems to hang when opening and again when clicking the last> button. Is anyone having similar issues? Can we go back to the "most recent 100 posts" solution?

It's working well on a Mac w/ Firefox. I also like having "Last" in the thread heading instead of having to open the thread first.

I agree, extra click is unnecessary. It was perfect before.

I mean perfect before it was changed at all - two changes ago.

tenemental pointed out that you can click "Last Page" straight from the title of the thread (which I did not realize initially) so that removes the extra click. However, the thread still hangs when I bring it up. Maybe the database doesn't have a speedy bullshit processor? I mean c'mon, this thread has loads of bullshit. Intel may not have the technology for that yet.

Im tempted to buy some C here at 22.25 just so I can say I bought it 20% lower than Spunky. Is that wrong even though I know its going lower?

Get off this thread, urbandigs. Some of us are tired of you.

urbandigs, don't listen to poorishlady. She is bitter about letting life pass her by while living in a crap studio in upstate Manhattan for that last 20 years.

poorishlady, I'd think you'd be more conflicted about UrbanDigs. While his economic prognostications probably don't help you on the sell side, he's the only broker I know of that I'd trust to help you get a good deal on the buy side.

good one poorishlady...you stay up all night thinking of that?

I'm disappointed that MER is not going down quickly enough. However, I am excited that UBS stock, in which UBS bonuses were paid, is acting as if it were a rock and the market was a bucket of water.

well MER is one of the firms with bigger exposure too all this crap...certainly on subprime side. I think they will be one of the more aggressive job cutters of the bunch, C too. The problem with macro study is that it takes time to come out in the market. You may have to wait for a broader economic gauge or MER's next writedown for a bigger move down. Im looking at Fridays jobs data. If it jumps, stocks will get killed.

Actually Juiceman, no idea who poorishlady is but I've been very big on "upstate Manhattan" these day. I even wrote on Noah's blog about it. So far, from an investment perspective, it has shown nice returns. And the buildings are so cheap if they turn out to be dogs it's not that much of a smack. I've completely turned my attention from downtown to uptown when it comes to investment properties.

eah - any interest in mixed use townhouse in E harlem on 2nd ave?

That is interesting eah, but poorishlady is still trying to sell an original Woodstock floral bus and defines long term is the time between hits of acid. My guess is that your interests are not very well aligned.