where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

1,400 posts and counting...

JuiceMan, it seems that a market filled with opportunistic sellers is bad news for sellers. Consider what happened when Dutch buyers decided that tulips really weren't worth a small fortune after all.

I agree with johnelder13. Manhattan RE market of today is almost identical to the Dutch Tulip Bulb Mania of the 1600's. Great analogy!

spunky, that was hilarious. johnelder, I appreciate what you're saying, but I think there has to be some kind of tipping point (it irks me to use a Malcolm Gladwell term, but applies here, I think) where a MAJORITY of sellers are turning opportunistic/adjusting their prices to the realities of the market (two ways of looking at the same phenomenon really) before we can say it's bad news for the remaining sellers. As long as most are still married to the higher prices, we're going to have more of the stalemate situations we're seeing currently, peppered with a few deals where sellers and buyers are actually in agreement with the current value.

A little piece on relevant numbrs:

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a comparison of mortgage
rates for "jumbo" mortgages or mortgages greater than $417,000.
During the past year, the monthly mortgage payment for a $500,000
30-year fixed jumbo mortgage has risen $339 according to a survey
compiled by Bankrate.
===========================================================================
Non- --$500,000 Mortgage Cost--
Jumbo Jumbo Diff. Monthly Yearly
===========================================================================
5/1 Year Jumbo ARM 6.290% 5.710% 58 $3,092 $37,099
last month 5.580% 5.020% 56 $2,864 $34,369
last year 5.790% 5.470% 32 $2,931 $35,167
15 Year Fixed Jumbo 6.300% 5.320% 98 $4,301 $51,609
last month 6.040% 5.080% 96 $4,230 $50,761
last year 5.680% 5.440% 24 $4,133 $49,600
30 Year Fixed Jumbo 7.030% 5.960% 107 $3,337 $40,039
last month 6.660% 5.630% 103 $3,213 $38,558
last year 6.000% 5.690% 31 $2,998 $35,973
===========================================================================
Note: a 5/1 ARM is a 30 year loan with the first five years fixed at
a certain mortgage rates and then years 6-30 adjusting annually.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auwOtb197FC8&refer=home

Juice - be careful that may just be a flashlight flicker! This announcement by S&P was in regards to SUBPRIME debt! This environment is far beyond that by now and there are many other debt classes out there that are behaving like subprime!

spunky - take a look at your steep yield curve this morning after the CPI data! Thats why you cant put too much weight into a steep yield curve, when 1 report comes out and causes a 15 bps narrowing. Honestly, I dont buy this report, and we all know future inflation will come out at some point.

spunky - take a look at your steep yield curve this morning after the CPI data! Thats why you cant put too much weight into a steep yield curve, when 1 report comes out and causes a 15 bps narrowing. Honestly, I dont buy this report, and we all know future inflation will come out at some point.

digs, do you have a way of figuring out how much new development inventory is currently on the market and ~ what new dev inventory is expected to be released in the next 24 months?

I'm sure digs is filling up his blog based on the currect fed move. Holy smokes!

what happened? I just got back from showings

Fed bail out of Bear Stearns

HOLY SH*T! BSC down 41%! Well, its not the triggering event I thought it would be. I thought it would be WaMu or UBS. I guess there is still time. Umm, this cant be that good.

juice - unfortunately NO. This market has a transparency problem that I desperately want fixed, but its a very hard thing to accomplish and data I have access to does not include what you are asking. Best I can do is the widget I have on urbandigs as to any clue of trends based on available data that streeteasy gathers on Manhattan market. Other sources said NO to me numerous times.

So how are Wall Street bonuses looking? on target to the toilet?

Digs, just by eyeballing your inventory widget looks like we broke 6000 unit mark...

Bear Stearns just collapsed.

Enough said?

but the CPI in Feb was zero.

That's right folks. Those 20% jumps you've been seeing at your Deli, the uptick in public transportation costs, higher maintenance fees? all amount to zero.

Heh

Yea, its getting close, at 5990 now! And Im on record discussing the 2009 bonus season's probably health in Jan: http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/01/bonuses_its_2009_that_will_hur.html

Bigger question is # of layoffs coming on wall st in the next 2-4 quarters.

We should all remind ourselves of my friend Malraux's first post, those many weeks ago. Let's take them on one at a time:

Malraux: "Dow below 11,000 by the end of 2007!!"

Fact: Down Jones Industrials one year chart: 11,634.82 - 14,198.10. No, we didn't make it quite below 11,000, but came pretty damned close, and who knows where we're going.

Malraux: "Housing market down 20%! - no - 30%! - no - 40%! - no - MORE! - by the end of 2007!!!"

Fact: Case Schiller index down over 10% since 2Q2006, back to 2005 levels, and falling.

Malraux: "The subprime/Alt-A debacle would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Fact: "Foreclosure filings nationwide jumped 60% in February compared with the same month last year...."

Malraux: "A bad bonus season would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Fact: Bear Stearns just collapsed, Citigroup working with John Reed to restructure, forecast of 30,000 jobs lost.

Malraux: "High inventory would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"

Fact: Bloomberg says real-estate taxes revenues have collapsed, ordered 3% reduction in city budge.

Malraux: "Manhattan real estate selling for fifty cents on the dollar by 1 January 2008!"

Fact: I never remember anybody saying that, and it's a ridiculous thing to say - just Malraux's hyperbole - but the trend is clearly down.

Malraux: "It was ALL GONNA CRASH by the end of 2007!!!"

Fact: 2008 has just begun, and not very auspiciously.

Should we take them on one by one?

Housing market down:

Could one of the idiots tell me exactly what day the Manhattan RE market is to crash. I'm trying to scoop up an apt at a 50% discount.

any other idiot besides stevejhx would be preferred.

Yes, stevie, let's take them on one at a time:

Malraux: "Dow below 11,000 by the end of 2007!!"
stevie: "Down Jones Industrials one year chart: 11,634.82-14,198.10. No, we didn't make it quite below 11,000, but came pretty damned close, and who knows where we're going."

Well, we're UP 300 points today at 12,270 (+/-), one day after the BS debacle. So not eevn YOU know where we're going.

Malraux: "Housing market down 20%! - no - 30%! - no - 40%! - no - MORE! - by the end of 2007!!!" stevie: "Case Schiller index down over 10% since 2006, back to 2005 levels, and falling."

Actually that's a nation-wide number. According to a NY Times report dated 27 February 2008 citing Case-Schiller, "The Manhattan real estate market has remained strong, but prices in many New York City suburbs are now falling."

Malraux: "The subprime/Alt-A debacle would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"
stevie: "Foreclosure filings nationwide jumped 60% in February compared with the same month last year...."

Uhhh, again, that's NATION-WIDE. How many foreclosures in Manhattan south of 96th street, please? Last year, there were nine, I believe.

Malraux: "A bad bonus season would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"
stevie:"Bear Stearns just collapsed, Citigroup working with John Reed to restructure, forecast of 30,000 jobs lost."

And as I said, people said this would tank the market in 2007 - for sure.

Malraux: "High inventory would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!"
stevie: "Bloomberg says real-estate taxes revenues have collapsed, ordered 3% reduction in city budge."

Inventory in Manhattan currently stands at a two/three month supply, as opposed to the 12/24 month supply in most other areas of the country.

Malraux: "Manhattan real estate selling for fifty cents on the dollar by 1 January 2008!"
stevie: I never remember anybody saying that, and it's a ridiculous thing to say - just Malraux's hyperbole - but the trend is clearly down.

No, it wasn't hyperbole, nor did I EVER accuse you of saying such a thing - how could I, as this was the OP, idiot? Again, your persecution complex rears its ugly head, as it did on a different thread. If you go back and actually re-read commentary from 2007 posts, you will clearly see that there were indeed people stating that they expected to be able to purchase Manhattan real estate for approximately 50 cents on the dollar.

Malraux: "It was ALL GONNA CRASH by the end of 2007!!!"
stevie: 2008 has just begun, and not very auspiciously.

Agreed. But we've heard stevies, HimWhoKnows, little arrows fall for thee, and many other hand wringers giving all of us here the fact-by-fact breakdowns of EXACTLY why and EXACTLY when that big ol' Manhattan real estate crash is/was gonna occur - sort of the streeteasy version of the guy quoting bible verses as proof and carrying a sign that says "THE END IS NEAR" and telling us on exactly what day and at what time the world would come to an end.

As I said in my other post to you, stevie, it's not your point of view that anybody here disagrees with. To a greater or lesser extent, I think the reasonably informed people on these boards have been preparing themselves for the inevitable downturn for a while now. Many of the points you make are quite reasonable and sound, whether anybody else agrees or not. It's you holier-than-thou TONE OF VOICE - you sound like you feel as if we are inexperienced cattle when in comes to Manhattan real estate. I think your opinions are interesting (and I agree with many of them). I think your attitude comes across as shitty (and I don't agree with it under any cicumstance).

malraux, agree with you here, though I don't think stevejhx intends to come off that way. Very tough to properly communicate over message boards/email, and for whatever reason it's much easier to come off as pedantic this way. I think stevejhx is also a bit different from all the "END IS NEAR" folks like HimWhoKnows, etc. Like you, I'm frustrated with these people, but am just as annoyed with the die-hard bulls who refuse to listen to anything remotely implying a downturn (ie: when spunky posts useless, bitter comments). As I wrote in the other thread, I get great value from these boards from people like yourself, tenemental, kylewest, etc. - I just wish the quality wasn't diluted with all this extremist crap.

It is a beginning as well as an end... signifying renewal as well as change..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23692905

bjw - fair enough, and well said. Listen, I can be as snarky as the last guy/gal, but in general, I try to sound like I'm reasonably open and approachable. Being extremist in either direction is nutty. And hey - I'm not buying, for the time being (though I sure am snorfling around for opportiunities). Interestingly, though, I have a a number of luxury (so-called) rentals coming up for renewal, and all my tenants are adamant about renewing, even considering the fact that I'm hitting them with a solid rent hike.

malraux, are your tenants in any sort of financial position that would allow them to buy now? There are a lot of reasons to continue renting of course, but curious as to how aware renters are about the current sales market.

Some tenants want to buy, but believe the market will come in more and are willing (and more than able) to wait as long as they feel they need/want to. On the other hand, some of my tenants are long term, and are people who simply don't want to own at all for a variety of convenience and/or financial reasons. Two of my properties are rented by foreigners who are only in the place 4-6 months a year as a pied-a-terre.

But those of my renters who eventually want to buy are quite savvy about the current real estate machinations.

Malraux, you "can be as snarky as the last guy/gal..."

Say it isn't so! I thought you were being honest!

I took your word as Godspell!

stevejhx, I must ignore you from now on.

Got to bring back a classic. 15 pages of real funny stuff here. I love the fact that malraux ends this thread with:

"stevejhx, I must ignore you from now on."

It is amazing that things have not changed that much in the debate the past 6 months. Probably longer.

Tony- Nothing has changed? lets see.

1. Prices are dropping
2. Areas like Harlem can't move units
3. New developments throughout the city have slowed and are reducing price
4. Line around the block to buy are non-existent
5. Dow is just above 12,000 (down from 14,000)
6. Unemployment went from 4.5 to 5.5
7. Collapse of Bear (was in business for 85 years)
8. Every financial stock (except GS) is down 50,60,70 or 80%
9. Wallstreet layoffs in the tens of thousands
10. The dollar is devastated
11. Commodities Thru the roof
12. Inflation/stagflation
13. Worst housing crisis since the great depression.
14. IB's basically stopped lending money.
15. Regional banks closing daily.
16. Tighter lending standards.
17. High Inventory

I could be here all day. All of this in the last 6 months. I laugh when people said that big wallstreet bonuses fueled the housing boom in Manhattan and now that bonuses are going to be non-existant it won't have an effect in the future. The tide has turned in the last six months and just because real estate is not being given away doesn't mean the wheels aren't in motion. Real estate is not a liquid asset, it takes time for the market to react. The only way I see this being stopped is wallstreet re-hires and gives the huge bonuses like past years.

Oh and most importantly, all of this occured even with the Federal Gov't Bailing out Wallstreet. Without the discount window, well I don't even want to imagine how bad things would be. If the next six months are anything like this, the economy will take years to recover.

NO! Not this post again. This needs to go into the streeteasy hall of antiquities

urbandigs- Sorry I couldn't resist.

six more months . . . six more months

no everybody - no - markznyc is right. buy NOW before you are priced out of manhattan FOREVER!! and then it'll be your own fault for not listening to the enlightened seers on this board!!

WOW- I have asked this question and still haven't gotten an answer from the bulls. Is it that you bulls real don't see the storm or is that your lively hood demands that you just lie at expense of others.

what storm dco? everything you've pointed out is a positive for the Manhattan market.

A high inventory of high quality new development
Tighter lending standard assure deals won't collapse as often, raising seller confidence
Regional banks closing so that only the pros remain in business
IB's? what are they anyway?
Best housing opportunities since the great depression
Inflation causing rents to go up
Commodities causing rents to go up
Weak dollar helps foreigh buyers

...

You just don't have the right outlook on things, that's all.

And don't forget, in just 400 or 500 years there won't be any more room for new development in the city. What are you going to do then???

zizizi- You bring up some good points, perhaps I should reconsider my outlook. I mean high inventory does mean more choices. It really does amaze me that there are people that can say or actually really think that this is a good time to buy. 20-30% decrease is conservative.

Global real estate is just entering the same problems. Just imagine exports which is the only thing that has kept us out of a technical recession is poised to tumble with over seas weakness.

The fed is on the verge of raising rates, how is that going to affect sales. Interest rate are still at all time lows and the market has collapsed in the rest of the country and will here. Now imagine 7,8,9% rates, what happens then? It is only going to get worse, much worse way before it gets better.

Fanny and Freddie going under is a real concern and would devastate the markets. Take a good look at these two and you will see they are poised for disaster if unemployment rises and home prices continue to fall. These two will result in hundreds of thousand of more foreclosures.

Not saying a slowdown won't happen. Just saying that this drum started beating last year with "guarantees that the market would collapse by Jan 1 2008", then it was "by EO Q1", and now the latest is "six more months, in early 2009".

The only thing sillier than talking about timing a crash is actually believing in it. I feel sorry for anyone who did last year at this time and is now still unhappily sittng on their declining stocks instead of in a home that they would be happy in that has appreciated once again.

I am sure six months from now, like six months ago, someone will say . . . it is right around the corner.

Snarky negative comments and all, you guys still haven't gotten it right, yet. But keep trying. That damn "broken clock" saying is true . . .

It's Bigger!

It's Badder!

It's Back!

It's the one that will strike terror in to the hearts of all real estate prognosticators!

It's the terrifying, soul crushing, NEW monster post titled "WHERE ARE ALL THE IDIOTS WHO MADE THE 2008 DOOMSDAY PREDICTIONS?!?"

Coming to a streetesay.com board near you soon!!!

(Brought to you by our sponsors, Case-Schiller, REBNY, and Ben Bernake)

markznyc- Do you have a television or read the paper. It's already in motion. A bank that was in business for 85 years goes under overnight 3 months ago and people actually think that things have been fixed. It's so naive to think that the greatest housing decline since the great depression is over and everything is OK. People it's just beginning.

Europe is now starting their down turn as well. This was never just a sub-prime problem. Many people who wouldn't of been categorized as "sub-prime", borrowed way over their heads and can't afford it. All of the banks are in the process of sub-prime debt write downs. They actually can't even put a finger on the amount because property values are still dropping. All these write downs are based on sub-prime debt, now imagine in actuality of all the other bad loans as a result of this credit crisis. There are some banks that if the Fed closed the discount window on Monday would go the same way as bear by Tuesday.

The world will not end. And the sun will rise tomorrow. We all agree on that, however we are all going to feel some pain from this disaster. And make no mistake this is a financial disaster of epic proportion for wall street. NYC real estate will falter for the same reason the bulls think it only goes up. Trillions in wealth and tens of thousands of job will be lost. The same reasons that make Manhattan different will make it crack.

markznyc- Do you have a television or read the paper. It's already in motion. A bank that was in business for 85 years goes under overnight 3 months ago and people actually think that things have been fixed. It's so naive to think that the greatest housing decline since the great depression is over and everything is OK. People it's just beginning.

Europe is now starting their down turn as well. This was never just a sub-prime problem. Many people who wouldn't of been categorized as "sub-prime", borrowed way over their heads and can't afford it. All of the banks are in the process of sub-prime debt write downs. They actually can't even put a finger on the amount because property values are still dropping. All these write downs are based on sub-prime debt, now imagine in actuality of all the other bad loans as a result of this credit crisis. There are some banks that if the Fed closed the discount window on Monday would go the same way as bear by Tuesday.

The world will not end. And the sun will rise tomorrow. We all agree on that, however we are all going to feel some pain from this disaster. And make no mistake this is a financial disaster of epic proportion for wall street. NYC real estate will falter for the same reason the bulls think it only goes up. Trillions in wealth and tens of thousands of job will be lost. The same reasons that make Manhattan different will make it crack.

markznyc- Do you have a television or read the paper. It's already in motion. A bank that was in business for 85 years goes under overnight 3 months ago and people actually think that things have been fixed. It's so naive to think that the greatest housing decline since the great depression is over and everything is OK. People it's just beginning.

Europe is now starting their down turn as well. This was never just a sub-prime problem. Many people who wouldn't of been categorized as "sub-prime", borrowed way over their heads and can't afford it. All of the banks are in the process of sub-prime debt write downs. They actually can't even put a finger on the amount because property values are still dropping. All these write downs are based on sub-prime debt, now imagine in actuality of all the other bad loans as a result of this credit crisis. There are some banks that if the Fed closed the discount window on Monday would go the same way as bear by Tuesday.

The world will not end. And the sun will rise tomorrow. We all agree on that, however we are all going to feel some pain from this disaster. And make no mistake this is a financial disaster of epic proportion for wall street. NYC real estate will falter for the same reason the bulls think it only goes up. Trillions in wealth and tens of thousands of job will be lost. The same reasons that make Manhattan different will make it crack.

people "predicted" the dot-com collapse for 3 years before it actually did.

imagine you are in investor - and you've been hearing from some "so called experts" that a startup with no profits cannot be worth billions - yet random companies like www.dig-my-nose.com have doubled in value in that time. your friend who bought it into that company last year is now a millionaire, and is planning on quitting his full time job as a taxi driver to become a day trader.

what would you do? would you listen to reason that says fundamentals indicate that www.dig-my-nose.com is overvalued? or would you listen to some people who make a seemingly well-reasoned argument that sounds something like this:

"2 yrs ago these same guys said dig-my-nose.com is overvalued - it went up by 100%
last year, these same guys said it would crash in the next six months - it went up by 100% again ..
now these same guys are saying it's really over valued --
given they have been wrong before, they will be wrong now .. "

Look, markets stay irrational for extended periods of time. COmpanies with no profits, and highly suspicious revenue streams were worth more than legendary firms such as GM, FOrd, Alcoa, etc .. this state exists for long periods after several people have started noticing that things are out of whack. some people realize it early - some do so later. it's when enough people figure out that it's out of whack that we reach a tipping point, and things start sliding downhill .. and then, often, the pendulum swings to the other extreme.

so, markznyc, just because some people said earlier that things would crash, and it hasnt done so yet ... is no indication that it wont. Everyone agrees market is overvalued (at 22 - 25 times annual rent, this is outrageously overvalued). it's a question of when, not if.

if you have money, and MUST OWN, and dont care if that means you'll lose 20 - 30% of house value, please go ahead, and buy. If not, you are better off renting.

"I am sure six months from now, like six months ago, someone will say . . . it is right around the corner."

Well, it's six months now since the OP started this thread but it's not right around the corner anymore.

It's right in our faces. Hope you prepared accordingly and will weather the storm along with us.

Oh my lord, the dude who started this thread couldn't have lined up the ducks any more perfectly than he did. We've got most of those predictions already hit (dow 11,000... EERIE) and the others seem to be falling into place...

Let's bring this thread back and thank malraux, who made the initial post:

Remember?

Dow below 11,000 by the end of 2007!!

Housing market down 20%! - no - 30%! - no - 40%! - no - MORE! - by the end of 2007!!!

The subprime/Alt-A debacle would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!

A bad bonus season would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!

High inventory would tank the Manhattan real estate market FOR SURE in 2007!!

Manhattan real estate sellinmg for fifty cents on the dollar by 1 January 2008!

It was ALL GONNA CRASH by the end of 2007!!!

haunting...

Dear God man, enough with the schadenfreude and "I-told-you-so"s. For someone who's ostensibly quite knowledgeable about the real estate market, you gloat like a 7 year old. Many many people are losing the ability to support themselves and their families and you're bringing back this dead thread for the sake of a little chest-thumping? Not too classy. Were you cheering when Tom Brady went down too?

"Were you cheering when Tom Brady went down too?"

No clue what you're talking about.

Weasel boy:

I suggest you read my post following my inital post, and quote THAT as well - to wit -

"It's the same hue and cry these people made in 2006 when they said it was the end of the road and that real estate prices in Manhattan would collapse.

It's the same hue and cry these people made in 2005 when they said it was the end of the road and that real estate prices in Manhattan would collapse.

It's the same hue and cry these people made in 2004 when they said it was the end of the road and that real estate prices in Manhattan would collapse.

It's the same hue and cry these people made in 2003 when they said it was the end of the road and that real estate prices in Manhattan would collapse.

And so on....one day, of course, they'll be right - the market will recede to a greater or lesser degree for a while - that's what markets do - they go up and down.

What I've taken serious exception to, and why I started this thread in the first place, are the idiots who make grand, sweeping claims in either direction about the real estate market in Mnahattan based on faulty logic and feeble reasoning. Look, I don't know if even I'd buy right now, unless a very special property came up that was a rare and unique opportunity, and I was a fully informed buyer and sanguine about the current state of the market, and I was not buying to flip but to live there with a long(-ish) time horizon. But as far as the asshats who spout ridiculous predictions laced with their schadenfreude at the possibilty of watching people take a hit on real estate - well, it's just idiotic.

Reasonable people can disagree about, and still manage to have a (very) interesting discussion on the state of the real estate market in Manhattan and its direction (up or down). The rest of you should go post on curbed.com instead."

I think that this clearly sums up my reasoning behind the initial post that I created to begin this thread - and I still stand behind it.

On the other hand, how can one explain this situation (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/arts/design/16auct.html?_r=1&oref=slogin) on the same day that markets are crashing wwith such vertiginous results?

"Were you cheering when Tom Brady went down too?"

"No clue what you're talking about."

Thats actually explains a lot.

i come back and this thread is STILL alive? LOL this thread, especially its title takes the cake on this board.

Where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?

LMAO.

That's like your friend who always tells you to put your seatbelt on when you get in a car. And you always laugh it off. And every time he tells you, "put on your seatbelt". And every time you say, but that's what you said yesterday, and look at me, I'm just fine without it thank you. And you said that the day before. and the day before that. and in 2006. and in 2005. and in 2004. and...

then... you get into an accident and get really hurt because you weren't wearing your seatbelt.

and then, you come out justifying why you shouldn't have listened to your friend?

WTF? what kind of stubborn ilk are you from? give it up already. both sides. no need to rub it in either.

"Were you cheering when Tom Brady went down too?"

"No clue what you're talking about."

I'm appalled steve. How can any self respecting gay man not know who Tom Brady is? If I were gay, I would want to bang Tom Brady.

All I know is that I'm putting my Fire Island property up for sale, while I can still sell it.

Can't resist, steve - why do you think Fire Island property is any easier to sell than Manhattan property? That's where listings will sit motionless for a year or two.

"...I'm appalled steve. How can any self respecting gay man not know who Tom Brady is? If I were gay, I would want to bang Tom Brady..."

ROTFLMAO!!!!!

JuiceMan - normally I hesitate to do this before the year's up, but that's the StreetEasy comment of the year. Solid work.

stevejhx, I'll buy your Fire Island property at 50 cents to the dollar. Deal?

Well, well, well....

It just seemed like the fun thing to do to repost my good ol' thread here on New Year's day.

May I take this opportunity to wish all of you, bulls and bears, renters and owners, New Yorkers and Chicagoans alike (and everyone else as well), a very happy, healthy, and peaceful New Year, filled with all good wishes for you, your families, friends, and loved ones. And for those especially hit hard by these difficult recent economic times, may this New Year offer some measure of hope and recovery.

My best to all.

M.

Malraux - your first post on this thread makes you, in retrospect, look like a complete retard. I'm surprised you'd have the courage to show your face on this blog again.

As for me, I enjoy your presence and want to see more people like you. The more realt-whores and shills out there who are dumber than a bag of hammers, the more opportunity for guys like me to profit.

malraux,

i'm surprised to see that you are back on streeteasy. two weeks ago, your act of pretending to be a real estate investor got exposed, you never defended yourself, and you disappeared. and now you are back with a streeteasy "greatest hits" collection. It's fun to see you, juiceman, spunky, etc. gloating mercilessly about the eternal strength of manhattan real estate. great entertainment, so thanks.

happy new year to you too.

Yes, I agree that malraux's post shows guts - and class. I enjoy the presence of both of you (as well as stevejhx, Juiceman, etc), and in particular respect and appreciate your insights on and experience with Manhattan real estate - including specific properties. In fact, one of malraux's posts actually caused me to back out of a contract last year.

Agreed.

Although the bjw/juiceman homophobia... not so good.

JuiceMan is not homophobic.

"JuiceMan is not homophobic."

Thanks steve, no I'm not. Far from it. bjw is not either. Not even close.

No surprise to see more inaccurate and overblown crap from nyc10022. What a jerk.

Malraux has helped a lot of people on this board. He is good people.

Sorry, I take it back then... thats just what it looked like to me.

But, either way, throwing around gay as an insult is not appropriate. I know that happened on other threads with steve as well.

I try not to take bigotry too lightly.

"Although the bjw/juiceman homophobia... not so good."

nyc10022, that's a vile and blatantly wrong accusation. Even for you, I'm surprised. If you read correctly, the only thing that was really said/implied was that Tom Brady is an attractive guy. Talk about playing hall monitor...

I don't think that JM has ever used gay as an insult. He has written things that could be taken the wrong way, but so have I and so has just about everybody. It's hard to post exactly what you mean at all times.

That said, eah and others have said some pretty vile things that we won't revisit. Just keep on "Ignore."

"nyc10022, that's a vile and blatantly wrong accusation. Even for you, I'm surprised."

bjw, the post right above yours, 15 hours before you posted, I took it back and apologized...

Hopefully, you just missed it, and weren't looking for a reason to post negatively.

> I don't think that JM has ever used gay as an insult.

I don't remember who it was, but I do remember that somebody did....

nyc10022, you apologized and that's good enough for me. No harm done. We have all been guilty of typing faster than we think and need to cut each other some slack once in a while.

No worries, nyc10022. It wasn't clear if your apology was directed only at JuiceMan or both of us. No harm, no foul.

cool... yeah, I jumped too quickly. I know there was a definite case a bit back, but I don't have any memory of who it was, other than they were just saying stupid stuff about Steve. I probably connected the two, not thinking too much...

happy new year, btw.

cool... yeah, I jumped too quickly. I know there was a definite case a bit back, but I don't have any memory of who it was, other than they were just saying stupid stuff about Steve. I probably connected the two, not thinking too much...

happy new year, btw.

BUMP! Just to respond to Spunky's question above ("Could one of the idiots tell me exactly what day the Manhattan RE market is to crash. I'm trying to scoop up an apt at a 50% discount"), it looks like March 31, 2009 (give or take a few days) was the date your were looking for - hope that helps.

I think date of crash would be when things turn down and start falling... so October 2008 would be the date for me.

reading the first few pages on this post now is great.

The proof is in the pudding. All of those who mocked the doomsdayers now look like fools, as all the "bears" have been completely vindicated. Somebody should put this entire thread on a webpage in its entirety from start to finish, just for laughs.

Yes, they only get funnier and funnier each time.

Where is malreaux, btw? Spunky? Tech guy? Lehman dude? Just brings a smile to my face thinking about it all...

Bump.

It's good to see that the market hasn't gone down at all, I hope everyone bought before being priced out forever.

I predict the stock market will be down 20% before the end of the year, in all likelihood before the end of October.

this one is still so funny...

Wow -- the prize for "Current Poster With the Most Misguided and Arrogantly WRONG Prior Opinions" goes to:

JuiceMan!!!!

(and apparently he's not even embarrassed by how wrong he was!)

hahahahahahahaha

thanks for bumping this....classic!
bears vindicated the bulls

"bears vindicated the bulls"

Freudian slip? Or do you not know what the word means?

where is the original poster of this? ouch

panhandling in front of 15 CPW

didn't he claim to have bought there at one time?

Amazing how this is still taken out of context. malraux's frustration was not a boast that prices would never come down or that the economy would never suffer; it was frustration at all the doom-and-gloomers who had been repeating ad-nauseum that catastrophe was just around the corner for several years, only to revise their timeline to "next quarter" or whatever. 2007, of course, wasn't really the down year. 2009 was/is where much of the damage was done. Some of the doom-and-gloom reasoning was right (urbandigs was especially prescient, and far more tempered, about the jobs and bonuses situations, and he even got the year right), but there's more than a little bit of that even-a-broken-clock adage in those who were adamant about their timelines. Call it good big-picture analysis with a healthy dose of wishful thinking. Personally, I'm just glad pricing has cooled off to saner levels. It's good for everyone in the long run.

rationalize much?

"Amazing how this is still taken out of context"

out of context... I love it! Wow, pull out the rationalization machine.

"Don't see any downturn in this pocket of Manhattan and in fact I see an uptick in prices."

"It appears to me those who are predicting price in Manhattan to go down are really wishing and praying for it to happen. I was watching Suzie Orman last night on Larry King who said "for those of you who think Manhattan prices will not go down you just wait and see what happens this year". As if she's pissed off at people who believe that apt prices in Manhattan will hold up. How freaking sick is that. That's the feeling I get from Urban digs."

"How about posting some threads about increased U.S. retail and service activity by our Canadian neighbors? What about the increase in U.S. manufacturing based on strong demand for cheap exports? Doubling of foreign tourists in NYC? Foreign real estate investment in NYC? How about European car manufacturers plans to add plants in the U.S.?"

"Urbandigs, you are quick to state that we are ignoring macro indicators, but by ignoring positive and potentially offsetting trends in the economy, I feel you are contributing to the overly negative sentiment rather than providing truly unbiased advice. This is of course different than providing your opinion (which you are obviously free to do) but please don’t mask it as impartial. "

Its amazing how folks try to deny all the denial that was going on.

"Seems like the overall RE market in Manhattan is still very strong, and though prices may be flat or even drop a little bit in 2008 if there is a US recession, a year from now things will be about the same as they are now, probably a tiny bit lower on average (1-3%), and with slightly higher interest rates. "

lmao.

Juice - "We are not in a crisis."

context, I love it.

rotfl.

Easy for you to call it rationalization when you haven't been around these parts more than a year, huh? I won't defend spunky - he was off-base and unfortunately arrogant, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with the JuiceMan quotes you pulled. Given the length of this thread, is that really your best effort?

1500 comments...wowsers. That's gotta be some kind of record.