where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

You are right, I tend think in condo terms.

Juiceman I just realized something. On you last post you indicated price appreciation for 2008 for reasonable good properties. Hey now wait a minute that's not suppose to happen in 2008. Get with the program we are suppose to have a price correction not price acceleration for 08.

Hey man, I'm just an honest dentist trying to make a living. Would you rather a dentist that lies? Just because I am honest and tell it like it is, I get a hard time? Look, I realize there are a lot of bad dentists out there but I pride myself on being someone you can rely on for accurate and honest real estate opinions. Don't associate me with the rest of those tooth chipping hacks.

Now wait a minute I thought Urbandigs was a RE agent not a dentist.

I'm a gynecologist - does that mean I can work for Jonathan Miller?

Here's today's anecdotal evidence for 1brs downtown, courtesy of StreetEasy's search filter.

120 2nd Ave (@ E. 7th) price chopped $10k. Saw it when it was a FSBO. Great East Village location, cute place w/ a washer dryer, but wrong layout for me and one flight past what I'm willing to walk up. Bet it goes for under $500k.

This is the good one. 211 Thompson Street in central Greenwich Village. The sponsor's been selling unsold shares for a while. No board approval, etc. From the listing: "Make a reasonable offer; we will work it out to meet your needs." Right there in the listing, not even an aside at the open house...

Oh, and another price chop in Chelsea.

They sound like all pieces of crap. Crap is difficult to push in any market.

211 Thompson?!?

Look, I've specialized in buying/selling/flipping/renting properties in GV for quite a long time. But 211 Thompson, regardless of its GV location, is a very poor excuse for co-op building. It's hardly indicative in any way of general GV residential real estate, or to be held up as some kind of model to extrapolate GV residential real estate comps/data from.

It's like saying "oh, here's a 400 square foot studio in mediocre condition in an older modest fourth floor walk-up building that's between 1st and York Avenue, but the zip is 10021" and holding it up as basic evidence for UES residential real estate.

Spunky, why do they "sound like" pieces of crap? Because their pricing runs counter to your interests?

Malraux, as I clearly stated, my post was offered anecdotaly. Perhaps 211 Thompson really is terrible (though it is a doorman/elevator building). That hasn't stopped them from selling literally dozens of units in recent years. Why is it that now the sponsor's listing sounds desperate?

Just checked a recent comp for 120 2nd Ave. A unit with the same (or very similar) floor plan on the same floor sold last year for $15k less than the asking on the current unit, which was has been on the market for a long time and will certainly wind up going for less (despite looking to be in better shape).

JucieMan, on the "Downturn" thread, said that I couldn't find a unit in a prime neighborhood that was selling for less this year than it would have last year. I posted one example off the top of my head; these are numbers 2 & 3.

tenemental 120 2nd ave- what's that. Silly layout and quite frankly was overpriced to begin with. Even in early 2007 apts in that building dropped their asking prices. So what's your point. You found a 4th floor walk up with a crappy layout that was priced wrong to to begin with.
Then 211 Thompson street? What's your point? That you found two crappy apts that are still on the market because they either have crappy layouts coupled with pricing that is out of line with the comps in the building.

tenemental is getting WORKED

tenemental:

So then why offer only 'anecdotal' posts? That's not very helpful...

This specific sponsor sounds (or actually IS) desperate because small, awkwardly laid out units, with no views and little light in lower quality building are the last to sell in any market (because they're the least desirable), and the first to stop selling in a down market (because they're the least desirable). This is really no big surprise. It's just a quality vs.affordability issue.

When the sponsors of buildings like One Jackson Square, 100 Eleventh Avenue, 200 Eleventh Avenue, 31 West 11th Street, 40 Bond, 11 Spring, etc. start saying in THEIR ads "... Make a reasonable offer; we will work it out to meet your needs...," then you'll have something to report!

Don't forget to let me know when you have a highly motivated seller at 299 West 12 Street as well.

TheStreets: http://www.prudentialelliman.com/Listings.aspx?ListingID=948675

8 X 11 bedroom? Whats that all about. Dam my bathroom is larger than that! Nice try. This is what I mean. Deals can be had for crappy apts with crappy layouts. Like they didn't try to convert a section of the living room and are advertising it as a two bedroom.
Even thestreets got to be laughing at this one.

It's "Damn". I'd let you get away with typo if it really was one, but we all know it wasn't. Spunk. So, I don't get it. We all agree everything is overpriced. Whose arguing who against what again?

And how do you end up with a 8 x 11 bathroom in manhattan without a high school education?

Good point Econ101 typing and being on the phone simultaneously is definitely challenging.

You do make a good point. The fact that one can have a college education and still be a moron is quite an accomplishment. Congrats.

Econ101 - thanks for the listing. I'm not a huge fan of that particular place but you can never have enough market data.

Spunky - when you're soaking in the small pool you have in that massive bathroom of yours you should consider reading this:
http://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-Influence-People/dp/0091906814

That place is at best 750 sqft, which would be $1318 a ft for a UWS coop that is way small for a 2/2. That is HIGhLY aspirational.

Even more aspirational is the same layout a few stories higher for $1.125M
http://www.halstead.com/detail.aspx?id=1479737

Actually it's not a two bedroom. It's advertised as a one bedroom with a studio apt inside of it. Sorry, my bad.

"It will be interestin to see what happens if we get a normalization of inventory in the form of a glut of new listings come March/ April."--Econ101

Just out of curiosity Econ101 could you please tell me the definition of interestin. The word interestin may be found in that dam dictionary that is in the 8 X 11 studio apt located in the one bedroom apt.

Wow, an apartment in an apartment. Sounds good, easily offended one. So, again, are you saying the market is overpriced?

Oh, I get it. Bullish anecdotes are acceptable on this board, bearish ones, not so much. OK, got it.

There was no attempt at a sweeping statement (hence the word “anecdotal”), but I do find it interesting that a building in Greenwich Village that sold 30 units in recent years has a sponsor saying “no reasonable offer refused.” Would he/she have been saying that in 2006?

As for 120 2nd Ave, Spunky, it was asking only slightly more than the recent comp, not at all what you would call out of line, but I have to agree with you. Trying to price in appreciation on a “non-luxury” property in this market is probably a bad idea.

ur_a_noob, ???

malraux, thank you for being big enough to admit it's a down market. It's certainly what I've been seeing in non-luxury (tha majority of manhattan, btw) 1brs downtown.

Here's what the market is doing right now on RPX - NY residential HPA derivatives, quotes below are year over year.

NY Bid Offer Size COB 02/07/08 Prior Change
1y -10.00 -7.50 5mmx5mm -7.75 -7.75 0.00
2y -8.50 -5.50 5mmx5mm
3y -7.25 -4.75 5mmx5mm

Oberon - how is the settlement level determined ?

I'm having a hard time keeping all the usernames and opinions straight in my head. I think we should form teams. TEAM SPUNKY can be spunky and whoever wants to join him. TEAM CORRECT can be me and anyone else who's not wrong all the time.

What do you say ?
All posts could start with your team name so that we can focus our attacks on the other team without having to read all their crap.

TheStreets - it's a TRS with quarterly fixing, done by ICAP, radarlogic publishes their official reports every month, with daily 1, 7 and 28 day indexes quoted for all MSAs and composite.

spunky
about 3 weeks ago Bought C at 27.75 and Mer at 54.60.

Now they're at 25.99 and 52.20

Seems a bit childish to me TheStreets. TEAM SPUNKY vs. TEAM CORRECT? How long did it take you to think of that?

tenemental:

"...Oh, I get it. Bullish anecdotes are acceptable on this board, bearish ones, not so much. OK, got it..."

That's idiotic. it's like me saying 'oh I see on streeteasy that the 2/3 bedroom penthouse at 136 Waverly Place, for which they were asking $9,000,000 (!?!) just sold recently for $8,700,000 (?!). Regardless of the price reduction, $8,700,000 for a terraced 2/3 bed penthouse in that building is a C-R-A-Z-Y price, and therefore indicates that the market in the Village must be absolutely expolsive! My point, tenemental, is that 'anecdotal information' of ANY kind is pretty useless, whther bullish or bearish. For every piece of bearish info you can throw out, I can find one just as bullish.

"..I find that a building in Greenwich Village that sold 30 units in recent years has a sponsor saying 'no reasonable offer refused.' Would he/she have been saying that in 2006?..."

As I said above, small, awkwardly laid out units, with no views and little light in lower quality building are the last to sell in any market (because they're the least desirable), and the first to stop selling in a down market (because they're the least desirable). This is really no big surprise. It's just a quality vs.affordability issue.

"...malraux, thank you for being big enough to admit it's a down market. It's certainly what I've been seeing in non-luxury (tha majority of manhattan, btw) 1brs downtown..."

As I said before, it's no surprise to anyone. In an overheated market, people become so desperate to buy thinking that they'll miss their chance, that they purchase inferior units in inferior buildings in inferior areas (from a market perspective). In an market that makes good sense, great properties will continue to sell for terrific prices and maintain strong appreciation, mediocre units will do okay, and inferior places will suffer. That's the way it should be, at least. I, for one, am going to enjoy a return to a certain kind of normalcy for a while. But there's no denying that the past decade has been the most fabulous income opportunity I've ever experienced in my lifetime viz. the real estate and art markets.

Right place, right time, this time.....

Oberon - So the fixing is off the RadarLogic calculated index ? The NY MSA is huge though - would be nice to have finer grained exposure. But then you run into statistical problems with low transaction volume.

How are the quarterly cashflows on the 1yr swap related to the quotes you gave? Is this correct:

Long/Fixed Payer ==> pay index(0) - 7.5; rcv index(1)
Short/Floating Payer ==> pay index(1), rcv index(0) - 10

... where index(0) = the index now and index(1) = the index at the fixing date ?

Fishhead - "Seems a bit childish to me TheStreets..."

... and your point ?

You're on TEAM SPUNKY, thats for sure.

No, TheStreets - YOU'RE on TEAM SPUNKY, and you don't even realize it!!!!

malrux - that’s the spirit - since you're on TEAM SPUNKY you can just disagree with me without even having to make sense. Finally we can dispense with the annoying reasoning and logic and get on with the disagreement that everyone wants.

TheStreets - they were contemplating doing a sub NY MSA for condo market in Manhatten, not sure if it still in the works, the PRX itself is new and started trading in Sept of last year so not much of a flow out there yet, and may not be for quite some time. Basically you either go long or short HPA strike for duration of contract, in this case you'll get paid if you sell at -7.5% HPA and the data shows and the fixing shows a lower #, and vice versa for a long contract where HPA has to be above 10% YOY.

After recommending a book on How to Win Friends and Influence People thestreet writes

"TEAM SPUNKY can be spunky and whoever wants to join him. TEAM CORRECT can be me and anyone else who's not wrong all the time.-Thestreets

It's doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out an appropriate team name for thestreets and his supporters. That of course would be TEAM ASSHOLE. Captain of that team would be none other than thestreets.

thestreets now that you are Captain of TEAM ASSH-le I'm sure your team members would like to hear some of your forecasts like:

1. Price of Gold in 2014
2. What will be DJIA in 2010
3. Price per Square of an average apt in Manhattan in 2012
4. Whether or not you still will be a Jerk in 2008

I am quite confident that your team members are anxiously awaiting to hear what their fearless leader has to say. Don't bother answering # 4, no rocket science here.

Oberon - hopefully this stuff will take off. It would be nice to have a liquid market giving pure exposure to housing prices instead of doing it indirectly through ABX/MBS type products. Having listed vanilla options on it would be even better. Tough to do though when dealers can't delta hedge their exposure with a long/short position in the underlying asset.

sorry spunky - I accidentally flagged your comment for review. Lol. I messaged tech support to disregard it.

malraux, 7 posts above mine, JuiceMan made an anecdotal observation, clearly and appropriately stated as such, which inspired my own (also clearly and appropriately stated). Why the double-standard?

“As I said above, small, awkwardly laid out units, with no views and little light in lower quality building are the last to sell in any market (because they're the least desirable), and the first to stop selling in a down market (because they're the least desirable). This is really no big surprise. It's just a quality vs.affordability issue.”

I agree, and was sincere when I said that I appreciate you admitting that the market (or at least the non-luxury part of it) is down. Many on this board (as well as many brokers and sellers with stale listings on their hands) refuse to admit it, and I think a little balance is in order.

It’s only a semantics issue, but mediocre to me sounds like “kind of bad.” A more appropriate term would be “average,” and that’s where the majority of Manhattan properties fall, and where my interest lies. We may differ in opinion as to what “do okay” means, as I think many average units are down from their peak with a bit further to go. I don’t think average apartments will see a collapse by any means, but I do see continued softening ahead this year and next.

“But there's no denying that the past decade has been the most fabulous income opportunity I've ever experienced in my lifetime viz. the real estate and art markets.”

I agree, and wish I had the money to buy before 2005. But right now, with the money I’m saving rent vs. buy and the direction my part of the market is taking, I’m very happy I didn’t get caught in the frenzy and buy at the peak.

Can you have a team with only one person? Has anyone ever agreed with TheStreets? Wouldn’t that make him captain of his own asshole and the only member of his band of merry assholes?

TheStreets - no, again, you misunderstand - I'M on TEAM TheStreets - YOU'RE on TEAM spunky!

tenemenatl - you're right - 'average' is the best descriptive term. As to your situation, it's cool that you're adopting a wait and see attitude. Nothing wrong with that. On the other hand, it's really about the time horizon, and WHEN you sell (assuming you have to, and don't want to, because of a financial or life related episode). For instance, I just closed recently on a unit in a brand new condo that I knew would be a slam dunk, even given the (at the time) more-than-likely possibility that things could get worse before they got better. I did this knowingly because 1.) I knew the building was like gold-dust, 2.) I knew I would be holding for a very long time, 3.) the rent I would would easily equal or exceed my monthly nut, and 4.) I was borrowing at pretty near historically low rates.

There are still definitely opportunities for the intrepid investor - but there certainly are less of them, no doubt about it.

Well juiceman right now he is a one man team. Let's see what other people would qualify as good candidates for his team. Keep in mind if they don't meet his requirements they may try out for the other Team that he is co-captain of--Team "I'm full of SH**t"

did you make more or less in january as a broker.....i still have to hear a broker give an answer to this question.....my guess is less from the lack of responses.....

Not sure you can assume that just because there was a lack of response. You may to ask the Captain of the AHOLE team. If doesn't know the answer he could always ask his wife who is the CEO of TEAM "I.L.W.A.J.

I live with a Jackass--Once again no rocket science.

Wow. It's getting personal on here. Did the rage virus escape again? Anyway, someone explain to me, in all seriousness, are the "bullish" people on here, for lack of a better term, in agreement with the "bearish" ones that almost everything is overpriced?

Econ101 - yes they are all in agreement but the bears will never admit it.

Spunky - "I.L.W.A.J."

You are a total clown. I haven’t been on the receiving end of an insult like that since I was 7.

still waiting for a broker to answer the question more or less in january a simple question.....still waiting come on where are all the bulls on housing....."i'm making a killing showing and flipping these condos....just wait 'til the giants move in the neighborhood"........hmmmmmm not sure where everyone went......anyway the original post was for where are all the doomsdayers for 07......maybe it should be where are all the bulls for 08?

just got back from a coffee shop and saw a broker who had tried to sell me a condo last year....he was sitting at a near by table and was talking with his friend how the market had really dried up ..... his friend asked him if he was talking about the rest of the country....he said no.....manhattan.....stay tuned.......still no reply to my last posting??????????

Interesting gumby. What firm does this broker work for?

shvo

The girl who serves me coffee told me this morning that her friends, cousins, grand pappy's, brother in law is having trouble selling their place. The market must be tanking.

I have a good friend who already signed a contract on a condo and has had his bank back out because the project wasn't 90% sold.

juiceman......why did the fed cut rates so drastically?.....why are banks writting down BILLIONS in cdos?.......why is the stock market tanking.....because everything is ok.....you my friend are completely clueless

still no answer to my original question

gumby, at least I'm not predicting market collaspe because some shitty broker from shvo isn't selling $500k studios anymore. Are you serious? Give me some hard facts that the Manhattan market is tanking and I'll listen. The best you have are cdo's and the fed? Where have you been? There are 800 posts here explaining all of this. Even urbandigs would laugh at you for your stupidity.

Save to say the market isn't tanking (at least yet), I think gumby was just saying that it was drying up, no?

juiceman you are an idiot.....pick up a newspaper.....take a look at the financial times read something other than the junk your real estate buddies put out.....you are just like the people buying the qqq at the top....the greatest fool is you.....just because your livelyhood has been cut in half (how are the sales going?) you think that talking the market up will make it so......hhhhmmmmmm.....finding ourselves with a little more debt than we can handle.......if i can just make it to spring i know things will get better......ever checkout what your true networth is?.....but that's ok it will turn around.....things will get better......just you wait and see.....because manhattan is an island that people all over the world want to be a part of......things ebb and flow it's just a matter of waiting it out and everything will get better.......and then tap your shoes three times and say there's no place like home, there's no place like home......

i guess the market is not tanking....only down a touch for the year.....unemployment does not look that bad.....retail sales can't get worse.....the banks have to be done with write downs...the commercial real estate market is going ok....the private equity deals are still out there?.....the mortgage trading groups aren't all fired yet......and there is always the giants won the super bowl!!!!!!!

still waiting on the reply by the brokers out there.....better or worse january.......let's face it .....it was worse....if it weren't worse they'd be writting in all over the place telling everyone how they are killing it and have more money than they know what to do with.......

sorry folks game over.......but you just wait and see buy now and you won't regret it.....if your time horizon is a long time it will be fine........just one question......when you put the numbers in the mortgage calculators do you ask yourself if you will be making that money for the next x numbers of years or do you just assume you will always make the money you made during the boom times....i know the brokers out there wish they were doing as well as last year......

Gumby, I have no doubt that the national economic situation is very relevant to the real estate market. But I go back to an earlier point: Manhattan has withstood many challenges the past eight years and stayed strong.

From a personal standpoint, I moved to Manhattan shortly before September 11. I thought about buying but (1) we were getting into a recession, and (2) when those planes hit the WTC, the future of the city was in heavy, heavy doubt. At that point, no one knew what was going to happen next. Companies were driven from and were abandoning their downtown locations, some temporarily, some permanently. But back then, it looked like it would be more permanent. Frankly, I wasn't sure why anyone would want to move to Manhattan after that. I refused to buy because I saw things were declining and I was sure that the Manhattan RE market was going to tank.

Things rebounded much more quickly and better than anyone expected. Then I kept hearing about the housing bubble bursting and the glut of new condo developments in Manhattan. This was in 2005 or so. Yeah, this would certainly tank the Manhattan market. My recollection is that we did have a brief price decline toward the end of 2005 and early 2006.

In any event, my view is that if it hadn't been for these challenges, prices would be much, much higher than they are now. Commentators are often note that Manhattan prices are much lower relative to other international cities.

So yes, I agree with you that prices will undoubtedly be impacted by the national economy. But that could mean they will increase at a much slower rate than they would in the face of strong economy, or they may decline as they did after September 11 and during that 2005-2006 period.

And yes, the national economic downturn will likely be somewhat worse and will impact Wall Street more directly than the 2001-2002 recession. But I would venture to speculate that the impact on the Manhattan real estate market be no worse than the combined effect of the 2001-2002 recession and the terrorist attack. We'll need to track jobs lost, dislocation etc., but so far the crisis seems manageable. The Fed rate cuts, and future cuts, as well as the stimulus bill, probably won't keep us out of the recession, but the actions should keep the downturn shorter and milder than it otherwise might be.

"i guess the market is not tanking....only down a touch for the year"

exactly my point. Too bad I had to read all your useless babble to get to the one thing that made any sense. Don't you have any other "I heard a shitty broker talking about having it tough and that means the sky is falling" anecdotes? That was priceless.

gumby, you my friend are one of the people malraux started this thread for. At least you are a perfect fit for something.

will it's this easy.....the stock market of the late 90's early 00's made everyone feel wealthy, then bubble burst and 9-11....fed cut rates.....way cut rates.....housing market rally make everyone feel wealthy.....use house as bank.....spend, spend, spend.......housing market crash......now the reality sets in.....no money to spend and in debt up to eyeballs.....this time there is no cure rate cuts won't make people feel wealth.....what gets us out of this this time?.....it will be longer and slower than you will think

were you around in the early 90's....i was and no one was hiring anyone.....the 2001-2002 was bailed out by cuts and cuts and cuts.....we have already been down that road and got the "benefit" from it....now we are looking for the same thing to cure us that got us sick in the first place......

it will and is different this time.....

you tell me what is going to make the american consumer feel wealthy this time? and like it or not manhattan depends on the american consumer......

juiceman....when you look at your paycheck each month think of me

"were you around in the early 90's....i was and no one was hiring anyone.....the 2001-2002 was bailed out by cuts and cuts and cuts.....we have already been down that road and got the "benefit" from it....now we are looking for the same thing to cure us that got us sick in the first place......
"

No one was hiring? Yes, we did have a brief recession and hiring slowed and unemployment ticked upward to 7.5% one year, but companies were hiring and many, many people were working. Right now, it is 4.9%. . Unless you are a major pessimist who expects another depression, we should be able to get through this. And if we have another depression, we'll have a lot more problems than real estate.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat1.txt

Some of this is starting to remind me of the quote recently attributed to Dick Cheney, "Be afraid, be very afraid."

You need to be more specific gumby. What should I be thinking about when I look at my paycheck?

my 2cents

Disclosure: new to NY and new to real estate. results of 6 months of tracking the market in Central / West / East Village, Soho, Flatiron and Chelsea. Coop is the norm unless indicated.

- sellers: still putting units out there above 2-5% last year's price. many are waiting for spring / summer to list. some are de-listing hence creating shorter supply on coop. many who closed coop recently are trying to sell and new condos are not selling hence increase in supply.

- buyers: there are a lot of traffic on open houses and applying mortgage at high rate. the buyers tend to be split on waiting for crash end of this year and people wanting to take advantage of discount (which i find is not there). most on open houses think this is the bottom of the market (when looking at comps it has actually gone higher)

- price: price decline is indicated on over priced units (vs comps) but not on desirable units. correction of market is some what happening on less desirable units. any desirable units are sold at quickly at 2-5% above last years (using comps).

- market: even with weak economy and subprime, decline in NY RE is highly unlikely. there are foreign buyers (mainly on condos and certain coops). there are new first time buyers looking and waiting for decline (which I dont see it coming). most importantly, the economic stimulus package to signed which raises the conforming limit in high value market will heat up the NY RE this summer (since the temp limit increase ends this year).

conclusion: one may not be able buy and flip but it may be a good time for people trying to get in to the market. leading up to 2009, the market will cool down due to season but also end of temp comforming increase. by that time we would of forgotten about 2008 market. also, checking through comps and its price on Q4 2007 and now, it appears as though, I would have gotten a better deal back than.

note on mistake

many who closed "CONDO" recently are trying to sell and new condos are not selling hence increase in supply.

juiceman.....the good old days when it was much larger.......shed a tear man shed a tear.

Gee gumby, you really are clueless. I'm not a broker, nor am I worried in the least about my paycheck this year or the next. I would also add that good brokers will do just fine this year. It is an up and down business, the good ones know this and plan accordingly. Your shitty broker from the coffee shop, well that’s another story. All industries purge a lower tier during slowdowns, so no tears shed for the lower quartile. I'm sure he will find a job selling vacuums or something.

Now that we got that out of the way gumby, what about you? You seem to have a shaky grasp of reality in addition to having very little common sense. What is your story? Are you young and scared of the big scary recession or just a bitter renter priced out of your lifelong dream?

Okay - this is not meant as any kind of market indicator - but was just surprise, given all the recent doom n' gloom market forcasting:

So I've been watching the penthouse unit at 65 West 13th Street on streeteasy (not to buy, just as comp info). It's 2,425 sf two bed/two bath, with a 1,250 sf terrace (but the kind of terrace I don't like - you have to walk up a circular stairay to access the terrace - it's not a wrap terrace visible from the main rooms of the apartment). The unit was put on the market at $7,245,2000 a few months ago, and then reduced a few weeks ago to $6,950,000. The building is fine, and has a doorman. But I never really liked the location, even though it's considered the Village, and thought the asking price to be wholly unrealistic, particularly given current market vagaries.

There was to be an open house this past Sunday (yesterday), and I wanted to go just out of curiosity to see and get a better feel the space. At the last minute, the open house was cancelled. Based on the price, I assumed the place was taken off the market, or was going to another broker/company at a more realistic price. I contacted the current broked, and guess what - accepted offer!

Am I dreaming, or does this seem like a very high premium for this specific unit, particularly given the state of the market and recent market conditions we've all been discussing?

actually i'm anything but priced out of the market.....if you aren't a broker what are you? you seem to know a lot about the manhattan real estate market.....what is the amount that a good broker will do just fine this year?.....up and down business.....i'm sure a lot of the brokers out there have not been through a down year.....how many brokers were around in the early 90's? not many......as for the shaky grap of reality.....aahhhhh my friend i think you are the one with shaky grasp....the market is telling you what is coming down the road....i think i will go with jim rogers thoughts on the matter rather than yours....until you have made a few 100 million i'll differ to his grasp of reality....

still waiting for a broker to tell me they did better this year than last or at least the same or 5 percent less or 10 percent......

don't worry though the fed is going to cut rates more because the economy is doing just fine ..... have to wait and see what the numbers look like this week......

gumby - Ill tell you. I did half the deals in JAN I did last Jan..2; last year I did 4. Contracts signed I mean. But I dont see how this helps you as this is my business, and my business doesn't indicate how active or healthy the entire market is. I could have done 10 deals, yet the market could be slow.

Cant believe this thread keeps going. Who was it that said we must listen to wsj, seekingalpha, ft.com for credible source of economic environment. Well, read front page of wsj:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269228578457765.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Hmmm, you mean other debt classes are affected and its not just subprime? Hmmmmm. Cmon people, at least we could have an intelligent conversation here. Yes, Manhattan is prob the strongest market in the US but how could it possibly be immune to a slowdown? That doesnt mean prices are headed down 50%, but a correction of 10-20% over the course of a few years is certainly possible if things get hairy in creditville and economy goes into a deeper recession.

Difference between this time around and recession after dot com bust; credit + leverage + housing is the deflating asset class after 4-5 years of unsustainable gains. At least acknowledge that we are in unchartered territory here and we STILL don't know how deep this credit crunch goes!

urbandigs - don't waste your time trying to convince this board with logic and ticking indicators...

finally an answer......although i disagree with your statement i do like your honesty.....i'll go out on a limb and say that brokers on whole will do less business than more business when things slow down....and the opposite when things are busy....yes there are those who are going to go against the tide but on whole......

the credit crunch is definately spreading to credit cards that were bundled and to the auto sector as well and these haven't even been on the radar......just do a little reading of any finacial publication and you can get a taste of where we are heading.....

yea Buster, just wanted to stick my head back in real quick to see if Spunky is still blindfolded and trying to pin the tail on the donkey.

Gumby, been talking about creditville and other debt classes for 6 months now.

urbandigs this thread is only 5 weeks old......and yes the credit markets have been a hot topic for a while last week was the one year date of ubs doing the first write downs......

never said on this thread. on urbandigs.com

Ok, gumby, I understand now. You are a Jim Rogers follower. Why didn’t you say that to begin with? Look, I have nothing against Jim Rogers, but he is well known as an extremist with extremist views. Even the media thinks he is a bit to “doom and gloom” which I didn’t think was possible. You don't read Rush Limbaugh expecting a healthy debate on bi-partisan leadership and balanced politics do you?

gumby, if you want to pack your suitcases full of gold bullion and move to Ningbo, than Jim Rogers is your man. If not, I highly recommend you get some other economic data points from more balanced sources along with a history lesson on this country’s ability to pull through a financial crisis.

Not to rehash our recent conversation, malraux, but a central GV (not my favorite location either, but primo to many) 2,425 sf two bed/two bath penthouse with a 1,250 sf terrace seems like ultra-luxury to me (top 10%, no?). I don't think anyone's arguing that that part of the market has been affected yet. I would say that average units, for the most part, seem flat or softening (if not in the listing prices, than in the negotiability) and marginal places are taking a significant hit.

urbandigs, please keep those posts coming. Those of us with enough money to buy but not enough to burn have good reason to pause and take a breath in this market, but I imagine buyers will ultimately appreciate your advocacy.

juiceman is the financial times or wall street journal balanced enough.....barrons????? do you even read financial publications?....front page bottom section financial times today.......subprime credit loss heading for 400 billion, say g7 finance chiefs......hhhmmmmmm g7 finance chiefs.....they probably aren't that balanced and a bit on the extremist side.......

perhaps you should do some reading of your own instead of reading the daily news......hahahahahahah.....

juiceman stil reading what those brokers put out on their reports on the economy......giants win real estate in manhattan up......

tenemental can you please elaborate on what marginal area in Manhattan are taking significant hits. Please compare the Jan 07 to that of Jan 08 sale prices when giving examples.

Once again gumby, welcome to the party. Do me a favor, read some of the past threads on this topic, maybe you will learn something. We have been talking about the sub-prime mess for months. People like you read Jim Rogers, log on to streeteasy.com, predict an Economic apocalypse, and then go on their merry way. Do you think you are bringing interesting and new news to this board by talking about the sub prime mess? Is that the best you’ve got?

No one on this board has denied what the issues are, just what the outcome will be. If you have some interesting and new information to link the economic issues we are seeing today to the Manhattan real estate market. Great. If you one in a long line of people that want to talk about how the world is going to explode because of the sub-prime mess, well, Ningbo may be a better place for you after all.

tenemental:

I'm in agreement with you - I was just saying that I was gobsmacked by this price for this unit. It still seems like ALOT of money (even though you're right that it is an ultra-luxury kind of thing). I mean, it's a two bedroom, at the end of the day. And the terrace isn't even a wrap - you have to go up a circular stairway. I'm stunned people are still paying prices like this for this kind of thing....

I have to agree with the Juiceman your posts are basically a regurgitation of Jim Rogers and bloggers who have most of their assets in Gold. Both have been bearish on the economy for the past several decades.
I realize RE Brokers in Manhattan on not making as much as they did in Jan 07 but who cares. What I would like to know is what the average price of a Manhattan apt was in Jan 07 compared to that of Jan 08.
The cutting and pasting of current economic news and Jim Rogers type forecasts are already be done by Urbandigs on his blogsite.

spunky......is that your nickname or what you do??????

like i said before this blog has only been going on for 5 weeks.....not months.....also the subprime mess came to light one year ago last week.....see post above....yet it is in the headlines on the financial times today......hhhhmmmmmm......seems it is bigger than the two of you.....and not understanding what the impact is on local economy and real estate is laughable......

poor poor spunkster.......you and the juiceman can say we've been talking about it forever and everyone else is so lame to be talking about it now yet it keeps appearing and is worse than people thought....i happen to have a report on my wall from deutsche banks research department from back in july warning of the number of resets coming in next few months.......they actually will hit there peak in the coming months......this is not over by any means......credit suisse and ubs report this week we shall see

WHY DOES EVERYONE KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE SUBPRIME MESS.......AND WHAT DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH MANHATTAN........the same people who just months and a year ago were talking about all the wall street bonus money flooding the real estate market......and now with the ib boys and girls taking a hit everyone one says what is the big deal about it.......

spunky......the spunkster.....come on let's hear what else you got to say??????

Gumby you avoided answering my last question instead you decided to go into some childish rant. Can you please tell me what the average apt was selling for in Manhattan in Jan 07 compared to Jan 08?

Actually, Spunky, with all the posters on this board that shout “who cares about Brooklyn?!” whenever the word marginal is used, I thought it by definition included the outer boroughs (apologies to Brooklyn and Queens residents). With that in mind I was thinking of Williamsburg/Greenpoint (prices down and inventory up, up, up), Prospect Heights (last Times article I read on the neighborhood had it down 13%, don’t remember if it was avg or median), the recent fire sale in Sunset Park (advertised as Park Slope), the dramatically underwhelming 4th Ave. rebuilding/rebranding in Park Slope/Gowanus, etc., etc. Then you have the areas like Bed Stuy that were supposed to be on a big upswing and are now in a lot of trouble (like the Rockaways in Queens).

As for marginal Manhattan, my own experiences in Alphabet city in 2006 and the 1st half of 07 had me scratching my head. I was (thankfully) outbid on a 2br (combined studios) between C & D in need of a gut reno. It went for ask at around $900/sf. The last apartment I bid on was between B & C, in better condition, and I had bid them down to $700/sf before changing my mind (they had accepted). The new year is still too young to see many closings east of Tompkins Square Park, but if the length of time on the market and brokers attitudes are any indication, people here are not snapping up anything that’s available like they had been previously. You and I went back and forth on that unit at 211 Thompson Street recently. I figured it was average, but was assured by you and others that it was marginal. The sponsor’s been selling steadily for years, now he says “no reasonable offer refused.”

After posting earlier I read the “Any weekend open house anecdotes (2/9 & 2/10)?” thread and thought “yeah, my experiences exactly,” but 1brs instead of 2.

malraux, point taken. What gobsmacks me are the people buying resales at 15 CPW. Didn't they think they might be interested when it was being developed? Does a few million $ really not matter?

tenemental:

As a 15 CPW buyer, I can tell you that the entire offering was so insanely in demand from the word 'go,' that it was a shitshow (in a good way) for the sponsor/developer/brokers as to who was 'on the list,' and who wasn't, for all but the lesser/least desirable units in the building.

As for the resales/flips, the truthful answer is that no, a few million $'s really DON'T matter (and I don't mean that in a snarky way, just matter-of-fact) one way or the other to the people who want in to the more desirable units in that particular building.

Of course, it goes without saying that this ia highly unusual situation, and in no way reflects the general market conditions in any way, shape, or form. It's just one building that has a micro-enviornment all its own. I've decided to hold and rent than flip quickly because my time horizon is long and the rent I'm getting basically covers the mortgage and maintenance/taxes, plus leaves a little extra left over.

average price......i think we can say that average price is something that is not really that great of an indicator.....see above.....big priced units tend to sway that number......so........is manhattan good going forward........here are my simple questions please answer them in your head spunkster, will and juiceyman

1 economy better or worse than last year
2 ib jobs better or worse
3 easier or harder to get a loan
4 banking better or worse environment
5 private equity better or worse
6 mortgage trading better or worse
7 people feel better or worse about economic outlook
8 now is a good time to buy an apartment in nyc yes or no

hhhhhmmmmmmmmmmm just answer these questions please and all this other crap is not needed

malraux, in your opinion how does 15 CPW compare to the Plaza? Similar story?

gumby, Your ultimate question "is now a good time to buy an apt in nyc, yes or no, does no one any good. The question is oblivious to circumstance of the buyer and type of purchase. Trying to lump it all into a "yes or no" serves no purpose. It lumps shortterm speculators in with buyers seeking a longterm residence. It lumps outrageously priced and poorly constructed new condos in weird locations in with prewar buildings facing parks. Your question glosses over whether a buyer is a first time buyer getting into the market for the first time or whether the buyer is simply swapping one RE asset he's owned for 20 years for another he intends to own for another 20 years. I'm not at all bullish on the NYC RE market right now, but I think there are good properties and reasons to buy and also good reasons for some people to wait. Spunky is bullish (and at least makes sense and is interesting to read even if you disagree) and a provocateur and enormouslly successful at baiting you. You're like Charlie Brown to his Lucy holding the football (and no, spunky, I didn't just call you a girl). Your questions 1-7 are good ones, but then you lose it on #8 by implicitly concluding only a fool would answer it in the affirmative. Even bears can see opportunities in a flat or bear market. You overstate your position and lose credibility in the process.

great now i can add you to my list of the foolish in the new york real estate world, you spunkster and the juicyboy.....awesome......someone else blinded by the hype.....keep reading what your little brokers put out about the economic outlook and the giants winning the superbowl ....... i'll keep reading the financial times and make informed decisions.....as for anyone trying to flip come on they are long gone.....or at least unable to get a loan right now.....

is it a good time to buy in manhattan......seems like an easy question.......yes if you are a billionaire and money doesn't matter.....one can always stay on the sidelines and rent....you never have to buy you meathead.......

lets go you wussies lets see who else needs a good lashing bring it fools

This does not directly impact Manhattan RE, but generally is a good step:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23115224

"lets go you wussies lets see who else needs a good lashing bring it fools"

Who......invited Mr. T......to......Steeteasy?

Mr. T, it......is........hard to.....trade......insults with an......illiterate douche bag......please read a book.......or order........hooked.....on......phonics.....will..........you please?