US Debt Downgraded - Where Do We Open Monday??

trying that again... very often page problems where you end on a comment-less page....

Yeah, leveraged ETFs definitely *do not* track long term, not only for the transaction costs, but because of the daily math issue. Granted, half the article is about how you can lose money quick, which is sort of the point. And you don't stay in these if you think things aren't moving.

I use 'em as a way to move quick, and to not tie up cash. I only went into SSOs after the market tanked. And I still had several times as much in SPYs... I think of them as a little "icing". On the jumps, I sell some out.. I actually have taken out everything I put it (only profits still in there). My goal is to not be in them soon... just trying to not have so much in capital gains (with some at 200+%...)

The triple longs were only to take advantage of that jump down, and I didn't pick up that many... sold half of 'em at 50% gain. The rest may go soon... I'm not a pig.

Thanks - interesting stuff. I'm generally averse to quick moves and anything leveraged, mostly because I don't have the savvy to manage that as well as others, but I'm sure some do quite well despite the decay issue (read some of the comments on the article - there's quite a dichotomy of opinion on this).

PS - I think the page issue is from SE deleting some of the more unsavory comments (ie: Bottoms' colorful rants).

Talk about gambling! I put over half my cash into $FAZ yesterday! Hope it doubles by next summer!

yeah, i always figured it had something to do with deletions... annoying.

Yeah, there is a lot of BS in etfs. The original ones are great, but two much wold in sheeps clothing now. Actively managed ones, tiny, tiny segment ones... lots to get burned on.

I'm a schooled investor, and I use 'em only as an add on... the vast majority is in straight index.

Interesting that the author corrects himself a bit:
"I have to confess that I misjudged my audience with this one. I normally write for value-oriented, long term investors, who this article is targeted towards, but I should've realized that it would attract day traders for whom these instruments do offer some utility."

6-9 month time frames are mentioned...

"Unchanged would be a lot better than Steve's investment performance."

Actually, Eddie, unchanged would be a lot better than your ever-changing portfolio: suddenly we've added SPY's and triple-longs, on top of the old SSO story that you conveniently, in hindsight, bought at the bottom and sold at the top.

"just trying to not have so much in capital gains (with some at 200+%...)"

HAHAHAHAHA! That's about as real as the late-great malreaux's claims of owning in 15CPW, when in reality he was hoarding Krugerrands in a safety deposit box at Apple Bank.

Nobody tries "to not have so much in capital gains": in fact, capital gains are precisely what you should be investing for, because the tax rates are lower.

"I'm not a pig."

No. Just delusional (but getting funnier by the day).

"Nobody tries "to not have so much in capital gains": in fact, capital gains are precisely what you should be investing for, because the tax rates are lower."

Not the brightest comment - nobody bats 1.000, and it's quite easy to offset any losses with essentially no real change to your actual portfolio:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/15259-etf-investing-guide-turning-taxes-to-your-advantage

That is close to one of the most ridiculous articles I've ever read.

Don't forget that in steve's bizarro world, income you earn this year gets taxed as next year's income, as he said a few months back about Wall Street bonuses.

"That is close to one of the most ridiculous articles I've ever read."

Says the guy who shouted that the end-is-nigh and will be "harrowing" only to dump hundreds of thousands of $ into the market on the very month (the day even) it shoots up a crazy amount. Very impressive stuff Steve. Sorry you don't understand the article.

"Unchanged would be a lot better than Steve's investment performance."

"Actually, Eddie, unchanged would be a lot better than your ever-changing portfolio"

I love it... so Steve's best response is a pee wee herman "i know you are but what am I?" Really, that's all you can come up with.

"suddenly we've added SPY's and triple-longs, on top of the old SSO story that you conveniently, in hindsight, bought at the bottom and sold at the top."

Suddenly? Steve, you are illiterate as well as delusional (but it is funny). I've noted my SPY holdings for some times. I added the triple longs for some fun on the last dip (mainly because I've grown more comfortable with the SSOs). Never had 'em before.

"HAHAHAHAHA! That's about as real as the late-great malreaux's claims of owning in 15CPW, when in reality he was hoarding Krugerrands in a safety deposit box at Apple Bank."

That my big gains are so big Steve doesn't believe them... I'll take that as a compliment!

"Nobody tries "to not have so much in capital gains": in fact, capital gains are precisely what you should be investing for, because the tax rates are lower."

Correct, you caught me here... I meant realized gains. I'd rather not pay taxes at all (or at least until I have to sell).

The point is with the leveraged stuff, I have to take the gains sooner than with a straight index.
But, I guess I can't really complain about that with a straight face.

And, yes, I swapped a lot of stuff on the major crash to realize some losses, so I'm good for a bit... but I was hoping to save those some more.
"I'm not a pig."

No. Just delusional (but getting funnier by the day).

> No. Just delusional (but getting funnier by the day).

That coming from Steve... now that is funny.

Of course, if folks think I am delusional for noting my actual gains, goes to show how poorly they are doing themselves...

Making a total "Unpatriotic" killing w/ FAZ today!!! Hahaha!

> Making a total "Unpatriotic" killing w/ FAZ today!!! Hahaha!

to the contrary, just divide justice. congrats!

Jeez, like clockwork... steve calls "up" and look what happens... down 400.

Actually, I bought more Eddie. You will note that I made my "call," as you call it, right before the market went up 600, and I'm still in the black.

To make sure I got a better deal, though, I called the Greek prime minister over the weekend and told him to hold a referendum on the gift he just got, because it would cause the world markets to tremble. It was part of my plan. I also called John Corzine and told him to have his company file for bankruptcy. I have that sort of clout.

To quote petrzitz: Tool.

The banks are a medium- to long-term play, not a trade. They're at about their 52-week low, and they - and the market - will remain volatile for a while and that's just fine by me.

I will note, however, that you "put some of your profits back to work" right before the US was downgraded, and right before the Dow fell a thousand points. And your "claim to fame" - the SSO, is down TWENTY-TWO PERCENT THIS YEAR, and 4% today alone.

Nice move!

"if folks think I am delusional for noting my actual gains" <> down TWENTY-TWO PERCENT THIS YEAR, and 4% today alone.

Can anyone explain to me why the S&P500 is down 2%, but IVV is down 4 and change? Aren't they supposed to move in tandem?

"You will note that I made my "call," as you call it, right before the market went up 600, and I'm still in the black."

Actually, you made it after the market close, so chances are you bought AFTER the run-up. Nice!

"The banks are a medium- to long-term play, not a trade."

But Steve, according to you, volatility = time, so we've already hit medium-to-long-term, no?

"will remain volatile for a while and that's just fine by me"

Interesting - after all that crowing about volatility being a surefire sign of terrible things to come, you are suddenly ok with it?

What's worth than a Bafoon ? A Bafoon who won't admit he's wrong!

Of course...

Dance, steve monkey, dance!

"volatility = time"

What? Are you talking about options pricing?

There is no escaping today's market action, or yesterday's. Oil is down, gold is down, stocks are down, commodities are down, emerging markets are down, Europe is down, SSO is down, VIX is up.

And that could all change tomorrow.

I'm long banks, and I'm staying that way. The best time to move into anything is when everybody else is afraid. Get back to me in 6 months, and I'll let you know how my trade is doing.

Is that the right spelling of buffoon? Speaking of - I haven't seen our favorite ape in a while, w67thstreet. Did everyone know that there are 4 types of great apes?

"The best time to move into anything is when everybody else is afraid."

Ahaha! Well, you should have move into the market last August, not the day after CNBC announced that the market had its best month since 1974.

> The best time to move into anything is when everybody else is afraid.

Well, you certainly missed that boat... and jumped in when the fear was gone. Once again, Steve explains why he lost so much money...

Dance, monkey, dance!

"Ahaha! Well, you should have move into the market last August, not the day after CNBC announced that the market had its best month since 1974."

ROTFL....

"not the day after CNBC announced that the market had its best month since 1974"

Notwithstanding Greece - the cause of all of this commotion, whose government is about to fall - there were very good reasons not to do that, the primary one being that volume on down days was significantly higher than on up days, and the market still had a thousand points to fall, and there was no solution to the problems in sight.

The market may still fall a thousand points, though I doubt it. I think what you're going to see instead is what happened in the US after Lehman - the political will to fix the problems, which didn't exist before. The issue remains Greece; its government is outta there. There's a Fed meeting today; press conference tomorrow. Sarkozy and Merkel meet Wednesday; G-20 meets Thursday and Friday. Expect answers.

I think what's happening right now is very healthy, and I'm happy to keep my positions.

"What? Are you talking about options pricing?"

No, Steve, I'm talking about this bit of nonsense you posted earlier. I'm still curious to hear your defense of it:

"2 months in a volatile market is not "short-term." When the market goes up or down 3% in a day, day after day, one hour can be long-term."

"The best time to move into anything is when everybody else is afraid. Get back to me in 6 months, and I'll let you know how my trade is doing."

Steve, just sounds like you've done a complete about-face here. YOU were afraid not even a week ago, quite worried about the volatility and day-to-day movements, and generally laughing at anyone (ie: me) telling you that this was about the long-term (more than 6 months, if you ask me). What changed your mind?

lmao

Hey Eddie - what're you laughing at? Your SSO is down 6% today, 25% this year, and at it's worst, it was down 50%.

HAHAHAHAHA!

I'm very pleased with my positions, and don't plan on touching them for a long time to come.

Steve, you laugh at one day's movement then proclaim you're very pleased with your positions and don't plan on touching them? Odd.

Oh, bjw - I forgot to congratulate you on the "Smellington": very good!

I see what you mean, but you have have to take what I said in the context of when I said it. The volatility is not out of the market though it disappeared for a time and I thought it would calm down. I have to say that the Greek prime minister's comments took me - and from what I can tell the world - by surprise. While a pullback from the high was to be expected, that comment raised the political risk enormously, and that is the cause of what we have been seeing over the past two days.

That said, the difference between when I said that and today is the political will to fix the problem. It didn't exist before; it does now. That is why I'm willing to live with the volatility. I think it's a turning point, I think the market reaction is healthy, and I think it's going to lead to some real changes. Papandreu has single-handedly managed to unnerve the entire world with his plan to save his skin.

When you said what you said, there was no plan in place to address the issues; everything that was going on in the market was rumor-driven, usually based on a planted piece in the British or Irish press. That sort of volatility has no direction; there was no conviction in the market with volume, either up or down.

The stupidest thing that ever happened in recent memory was allowing Lehman to fail. The lesson seems to have been learned. I think there will be a lot of progress in the short-term to make sure that that doesn't happen again. As I said, get back to me in 6 months, we'll see if I'm right or if I'm wrong.

That's what I think changed.

"you laugh at one day's movement then proclaim you're very pleased with your positions and don't plan on touching them?"

I'm laughing at Eddie Wilson and his phantom prowess, not the movement in the market.

bjw, there are very few analysts whose opinions I pay close attention to. There are the Aden sisters, and Kevin Marder:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/conviction-returns-and-so-do-eu-worries-2011-11-01?link=mw_home_kiosk

Marder pretty much explains why I chose the moment I did to take the position I did, and what the risks of taking that position were. Nobody - except Eddie Wilson - knows what is going to happen tomorrow. If we did, there would be no risk in anything.

Did I know that Papandreu would do the stupid thing that he did three days before he did? No. No one did. Did I make a move knowing that I could live with such a stupid thing, because I thought the conditions had changed enough in the meantime? Yes.

Am I always right? No. Some of my investments lose money; most don't. I need to see a fundamental reason to make the change. I expect that this problem will be righted very quickly, and it will cause there to be a real reaction among governments this time, to fix the problem. That's why I think it's a healthy development.

Like Lehman, Europe's problems are both financial and political, but the political problems are the worse of the two. This will now get fixed.

Yes, Steve is obviously refusing to address anything that demonstrates how wrong he is.... nice strategy.

"PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FACT THAT I CALLED BUY AFTER THE MARKET HAD ONE OF ITS BIGGEST RISES IN HISTORY, RIGHT BEFORE THE MARKET TANKED AGAIN!"

I love it!

> Your SSO 25% this year

Nope... try again. I love how Steve ADDS 100% to his "returns", and subtracts 25% from everyone else.
Steve will try anything to cover up his mistakes...

Dance, monkey, dance!

> As I said, get back to me in 6 months, we'll see if I'm right or if I'm wrong.

Who need 6 months? We already know you're a joke... even for just the short call before the 2000 point jump, then the "BUY!" call.

Hillarious.

Dance, monkey, dance!

Steve, looks like your guy Marder kind of likes LinkedIn. Have you changed your mind on that one too?

somewhereelse and bjw vs steve.

Just when my European friends thought they got the hang of it after I explained the swe vs bjw, a new dynamic emerges on se ;)

swe: A dancing monkey?!
Call Ricky Gervais. Good for "Monkey News".

Nope, haven't changed my mind on linkedin.

Regarding Eddie Wilson, aka somewherelse, because of his continued abusive comments I have asked that either he be removed from this system, or that my account be deleted.

I've tried to be nice and have a nice conversation, but it is not possible.

Probably won't go over well with the SE folks. Besides, it's best if you play along - he's just razzing you.

Actually, me & Matt go way back, & we've already discussed it.

Razzing is one thing - and that's fine. "Monkey" is beyond the pale, and Eddie cannot control himself. I don't mind having a reasonable discussion about these matters - I do, however, object rather violently to being told, "Dance, Monkey."

And that is the end of that.

You object to being called a monkey but you wish people who live in Long Island City have physical harm and property damage from August's hurricane? I have no dog in the LIC matter, but it seems that you have some selective tastes
Personally I dont believe you are a monkey. After all, you and that ape w67thstreet don't even get along.

HB, what are you talking about? The only thing I've ever wished people for people in Long Island City is that they would move out. Nothing wrong with that. And I have no property damaged in August's hurricane.

"Regarding Eddie Wilson, aka somewherelse, because of his continued abusive comments I have asked that either he be removed from this system, or that my account be deleted. "

Oh, the irony.... this from the guy who STARTED threads for the sole purpose of calling me Ediot... and didn't he call bjw names, too?
ROTFL.

Steve, you are just a sore loser. Dance, monkey!

> I've tried to be nice and have a nice conversation, but it is not possible.

Wow, now that might just be the biggest lie of all time from Steve (and that is saying a lot).

Starting conversations by calling folks idiots.... that's "nice conversation". Suuuure.

Keep dancing, monkey!

As I said....

Yes, correct... as YOU said...

"Guess there goes blowjb's investment in the hinterlands of Brooklyn at the peak of the market. "
"Much like Ediot Wilson's reinvested..."

Yes, Steve... tell us about all the "nice conversation" you make... and all the money you make calling the market perfectly wrong.

And then complain about everyone else.

Dance, monkey!

Steve, I know you didn't buy after the huge run up but I assume you got in around 1225-1230 on the S&P in the after hours on 10/26. You are probably about even, no?

I take that back. Looks like it was closer to 1240. You are red.

steve calls people idiots, dopes, uses a sexual reference to describe bjw, but then tries to get swe banned for calling him a dancing monkey. Old man steve just never tires of embarrassing himself.

I am in the red as of the close of today; on Thursday and Friday I was up like +5%. I buy with limit orders, so I set the price and buy in multiple lots when necessary. I don't look at what the S&P was doing, because I just set the price.

From what I can tell, financials are up significantly in after-hour trading. Whether it holds or not, I don't know. What I do think happened is that volatility returned within a new - higher - trading range, because the range in the last two days has been purely technical. I'm sure there were a lot of margin calls, as well.

I fully expected a pullback after Thursday; the market was way overbought, and due for a correction, though you can't ever predict when, or by how much. What I didn't expect was that a) the Greek prime minister would open his mouth; and b) MF Global would have stolen its clients' money to pay its bills. Those two events obviously wracked the market yesterday and today.

In the end, though, I think it's going to put politicians' feet to the fire this week, and this week is full of big meetings. I don't think Germany and France are going to allow Greece to ruin the euro because it means too much to them, and a Greek default would destroy their banks. I don't think the world - this time - is going to allow another financial panic to occur. I think enough damage was done after Lehman that people have learned. Even business groups are now calling on Berlusconi to resign; Papandreu's days as prime minister are limited.

One key factor to look at today and yesterday is volume; in neither case did volume exceed Thursday's. There's been a fundamental shift in the market in that volume is higher on up days than on down days. That is a recent development.

Confidence still lacks, and it will for a while, so volatility will continue. But unlike when Bear Stearnes' first MBS funds exploded and the world did nothing for a year, this time there is active involvement in working out a plan. Remember Hank Paulsen's "This is the best economy I've ever seen" comment, a week before the financial panic ensued?

You don't see that now. What you see is people trying to figure a way out of the mess. Obviously, the Greeks didn't get it. I think they do now - either they go along with the plan, or they bankrupt themselves and turn into Argentina, without good steaks.

But I think in the medium-term

everything will work out fine.

I am not commenting on whether or not the market will go up or down just was clarifying because you said you were in the black earlier today.

Aren't you holding SSO? It doesn't matter if you watch the S&P or not, your investment is tracking it.

No, I don't own SSO and never have, probably never will. That's Eddie Wilson, who always beats the market whether it's up or down.

"I fully expected a pullback after Thursday; the market was way overbought, and due for a correction"

Hillarious. Steve called BUY, market went down, and now "he called a pullback".

Oh man, will the lies never end.

Dance monkey, dance!

"steve calls people idiots, dopes, uses a sexual reference to describe bjw, but then tries to get swe banned for calling him a dancing monkey. Old man steve just never tires of embarrassing himself.'

Well, it certainly wouldn't be the first thing Steve was wrong about...

Oh, this keeps getting funnier. Only took Steve 2 days to reverse his claimed position again. Apparently, while screaming "I'm buying in", he knew things would go down.

From YESTERDAY:
"Markets were due for a fall anyway, but this a good warning."

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/28807-credit-suisse-plans-more-job-cuts

Of course, 6 days ago...
"I'm going long as of today. I've changed my mind. I think the economy is on the mend, Greece won't matter, and China is revving up again."

Dance!

Wow, this is incredible... Steve lost all confidence in the market, and we crossed 12k today.

Somebody needs to start an inverse Steve fund...

"I take that back. Looks like it was closer to 1240. You are red."

redder now?