Internet traffic stats

There may be some correlation but I don't think it is a reliable indicator. Internet traffic stats for SE are probably like open house numbers, most attendees are just passing through. Right now my web traffic is quite light, but my business has been unusually strong for this time of the year.

I have often had brokers tell me, after posting a new listing, that they have had "a ton of hits" online and we should act quickly. Months later the listing is still available. Also it seems that the "saved listing" totals on a SE listing are also a poor indicator of actual sales.

I think the best indicator we have regarding the current state of the market are UrbanDigs charts. Just my dos colones.

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

From my POV, I'm not feeling a lack of buyers, but rather a lack of inventory -- I list a cute property, it attracts a pool of potential buyers, one bidder takes it into contract, and then I have nothing to show the "others."

We have a two-bedroom coming on in December, and I predict the exact same thing.

So if I were pressed for a temperature reading I would say "seasonally slow but not inappropriately so."

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Ali,
I am happy that your biz is good, but from a specific you can't make a general.
I'm just fishing for a more macro picture of a specific market with forward indicators.
The diggs data is excellent, just not leading indicators.

Boring market + lack of innovative content = lackluster traffic stats.

Just my two cents.

West81st broke that down like Einstein, you know I like to keep it simple. The theory of future market strength, "bm+loi=lts".

FG, brokers don't care about price, we only care about volume. But I assume that when you say "forward indicator," you want next spring's prices.

For that I would look at employment stats and rental pricing. If people are working, and rental prices are rising, spring pricing will probably go up. If you only get one but not the other, probably flattish.

As West81 and Keith have so concisely demonstrated, SE traffic is probably not a good demand proxy.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Next time you are working with Ali, remember what she says - "brokers don't care about price, [they] only care about volume."

in Ali's defense, real estate brokering is a volume business. That doesnt mean service is sacrificed, just that to succeed as an agent and make a living, it helps to understand the nature of this business

Not sure its worthy of a defense, but between the two of you, a client should understand that he might get plenty of hand holding, insight, etc. but when it comes down to the hard dollars, the client stands alone.
Question is, previously we learned that even the insight can be limited if you are a buyer client as information on demographics has to come from even another party and not the broker, so how much value in the service is there after all?

"brokers don't care about price, we only care about volume"

Ali G - Please put that on your business card, it is real estate gold

UD - why defend such a self-serving comment? There is no defense or excuse for that statement. You should expect more, even from a former NY Post writer

What's wrong with the New York Post?

I think it was taken out of context, thats all. Real estate is a volume business on the brokerage side and a service business on the consumer side. Just because you understand the nature of the business on the brokerage side, doesnt mean you sacrifice service on the consumer side. My clients know how hard I work for them, and how I look out for them and consult for them with their best interests in mind and Im sure Ali's clients feel the same way towards her. But like most sales based businesses, its volume based. I think the comment, 'brokers don't care about price, we only care about volume' is being a bit mis-interpreted to mean 'brokers dont care about clients, just bid as high as you can so we can get a deal' in this discussion and that is what I disagreed with. Falco is right, my data is not a leading indicator, just the most real time info we have on whats going on - it doesnt predict anything. Back to the OP's point, are SE traffic stats a barometer of sorts on the current levels of buy side interest in Manhattan RE? Im not sure, but I would expect SE traffic to surge IF the market shut down and volatility rose big time and fear blanketed the markets again - so I think its more 'shock' based than anything and right now I guess there is not much domestic shock to talk about. Most of the macro action is in EU and talk of China growth slowing, and its only starting to hit US equity markets but no puking yet that would bring more people to these boards to see whats going on

What does 'care about clients' mean if you don't 'care about the price' that the client receives or the client pays because you want to get the deal closed and move on to the next one?

i interpreted in the context that the market dictates value and sets the price for any property; not the seller or the broker. Now its Ali we are talking about here, so when she ended that sentence with 'only care about volume' I thought she was talking about the brokerage industry from a broker's point of view. Every top producing team and agent will tell you that this is a volume business (more producing agents combined to 1 team to maintain highest level of splits with employing brokerage) and they usually get that volume by providing superior service to the client - a team with top people tailored to each aspect of the transaction all of whom work for the client of course is the best structure (think Nikki Field Team). Thats all. For me, of course I care about price as I exclusively work with buyer clients. I dont think Ali meant that she sacrifices her advice/fiduciary responsibility to clients simply to get the deal done...but I can see how it can come off that way. Its a volume business, the market sets the price, and our job is to do our best to get the best price/dealterms for our clients, hopefully using the latest data/technology to help with that servicing. Sometimes that market price turns out to be X. Other times that market price turns out to be Y. How the market ultimately bids for that property is a dynamic mystery, changing with many other factors that are unfolding out there in macro land. Gotta run...happy turkey all!

>i interpreted in the context that the market dictates value and sets the price for any property;

So should the broker's commission not be based on the value?

well commission models already have evolved from say 5+ yrs ago and i think that future innovations will ultimately produce a service where sellers have the option of different kinds of listing services - its already happening with companies like realdirect.com. the markets will decide whether they succeed or fail. but i dont think you will ever fully replace traditional brokerage, as there will always be the need for unique personal service. innovations will take a piece of the pie, and Manhattan is a big pie, but we are a long way from any of the new innovative models taking over. besides, it will take years for the markets to decide which models work best for this crazy fast paced marketplace

"brokers don't care about price, we only care about volume."

UD- call a spade a spade please. at least Ali did. The hard facts is/are all brokers care about is closing the deal. If you are a good sales person(broker) you make both parties feel good about the price they bot/sold even if they took it up the a@@. bottom line it's a volume business.

"My clients know how hard I work for them, and how I look out for them and consult for them with their best interests in mind and Im sure Ali's clients feel the same way towards her"
This is great bullshit. How do you know how her clients feel about her?

said it 4x...this is a volume business

Right, we get it, thank you. Volume matters to the broker. Price is irrelevant.

http://www.dgneary.com/BrokerWebsite3/code/sales_detail.asp?listing_id=87364

check this cobroke that "truly defines Gramercy chic"

voluminous

Bottoms, what's your point?

that you don't get it, though not a surprise, is fine, blowjop

Check out where we are now as a indication of market malaise.
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/streeteasy.com