Goldman: NY RE overvalued by 26%, will decline.

Right - tell that to all the SE posters who waited out 2009 and 2010, and started looking in 2011, only to find prices strengthening, not weakening.

Actually, extrapolating from comments posted here, quite a few SE regulars purchased 2009, 2010, and VERY early 2011, after they really had monitored the market. They certainly didn't think prices are going down.

It doesn't mean they are right. This is a completely illogical argument: experts predict x, but many people did y anyway. It doesn't validate or invalidate the top post. You might as well have said "but I love ham!"

Is that the best Goldman Sachs can do? THat's pretty pathetic.
They've really gone out on a limb. NY RE is overpriced? Really?
Tell us something we don't know....
Ok here's one thing....
"Portland is 10% above it's equilibrium and predicted to drop 8% over the next 2 years."
Ok, that's brave.

Next, "New York is estimated 26% above it's eqilibrium." No sh%t Sherlock, I and countless others have pointed out the disconnect between the rental and sale market. I in particular felt it's about 20% off but ok, rental is hard to pin down with what concessions are or not given.....

But what's the PREDICTION for NY, Goldman Sachs? Your the F'ing expert!!!

"a correction of this large overvaluation leads to falling house prices despite growing income in the metro area."

Very brave indeed

sell now or be forced to live in Fort Lauderdale forever

Here is basically the same premise from 2 years ago except substitute "Deutsche Bank" for "Goldman Sachs" and "47%" for "26%"

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9802-deutsche-bank-nyc-real-estate-could-fall-another-47

Whatever happened to stevejhx?

He's in Florida now and douchebagging on the Orlando Streeteasy board....

Yup-- and how much will they predict prices will go down if incomes continue to go down?...

HAVE A LOT FUTHER TO FALL!!

I love it! Buy now or move to Florida forever!

Juice, he didn't move to Florida because he had to. He could have bought in Bucharest, Prague, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, Belfast or anywhere he wanted to. This is just the best opportunity for him. And it's not forever. Nope, didn't get priced out of Chelsea; moved to Hell's Kitchen to get more space for less money. Just you wait....... pretty soon rents and buys are going to hit equilibrium, because .............. mortgage rates are 3% and rents are climbing.

I guess stevejhx is a victim of his own prognostications.

Well then, I hope at least his cats remain warm this time of year

So I am guessing the assumption is that US taxpayer money will continue to support NYC (and DC) real estate prices?

I fully anticipate that the US Gov't and Fed will do all they can to support big finance and thus inflate RE prices in cities like NYC and DC. The funny thing is that few NYC RE investors are capable of admitting that their properties have benefited greatly from a massive wealth transfer from Joe US Taxpayer. (And that the same sort of wealth transfer is taking place in other countries as well, mostly via outright corruption and theft [read: China and Russia].)

The fundamentals of finance and economics have been twisted and distorted by powerful interest groups led by mega financial institutions; corrupt and "captured" politicians that who are more than willing to ignore consequences and transfer wealth from the majority to a privileged minority; and of course a very motivated financial 1% that would have the most to lose if the present economic/financial Ponzi scheme fell apart.

But keep on patting yourselves on the back for being such "free-market capitalists".

Which mega financial institutions are doing well today?

Re: Which mega financial institutions are doing well today?

well = not insolvent

Business Insider is hardly a reputable source of news- it's like tabloid business news..

This will not help: Citi Cuts 4,500 Jobs, Will Take $400 Million Charge
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/12/06/business/business-us-citigroup-layoffs.html?hp

Keep renting, while dumping another $30,000 in the lanlord's college fund, and another year off your life.

The time to come out with these calls is at the peak, not when we're bottoming. Good going Goldman.

Goldman's track record isn't really all that good. They make their money front running customers, not making brilliant market calls. And then you have Corzine and Rubin...

they're not bottoming... obvioulsy

Manhattan seems to be declining low single digits, which seems to be much better than our stock markets. I would argue we're 12-18 months from a bottom and the vast majority of declines have already occurred. Then you have the stock market which is over-valued by a good 20% or more.

and then everything will be fine again?

yeah riversider, how do you calculate this 20%? Based on what?

columbiacounty, good job so far! ;)

"he didn't move to Florida because he had to. He could have bought in Bucharest, Prague, Cape Town, Buenos Aires, Belfast or anywhere he wanted "

LOL. Have you ever been to those place? Cape Town, Prague, and much of Florida are amazing places that, if i didn't have to make a living, I would live in over New York any day! I think you were trying to be sarcastic but you come off as provincial.

hope it's true, even though too late

"Right - tell that to all the SE posters who waited out 2009 and 2010, and started looking in 2011, only to find prices strengthening, not weakening."

"Strengthening" at 15% below peak... not particularly scary. In real terms over the 4 years, that's still a major drop. The folks who waited made out, even if they suffered the horrible fate of buying 5% off the bottom.

And its not like Manhattan incomes are doing particularly well right now...

> Keep renting, while dumping another $30,000 in the lanlord's college fund, and another year off your life.

I'll take that over spending 40k on taxes and interest, losing 100% of your down payment which was leveraged, and losing 5 years off your life.

This story is obviously bullish, because Chinese investors will read this and say "now is the time to buy!" Its always time to buy.

Strengthening"-- really where??

Al - yes, those are wonderful places, especially Cape Town. And the person we're referring to could also have lived in Paris, London, Moscow. In fact, he could even have bought a Classic 6 on Fifth Avenue, but just didn't want to, because he could do better given the rent-to-buy ratios.

lowery - wait, he could have bought on Fifth Avenue, but was living on 52nd and 8th in a 2 BR? Don't think we're talking about the same guy.

yeah, that's him - not priced out, not one bit

>This story is obviously bullish, because Chinese investors will read this and say "now is the time to buy!" Its always time to buy.

I doubt that rich Chinese are tuning in to read what a retard in East Harlem who still uses the wrong zip code has to say.

don't press for any more details because i am not giving that up, but i know 2 young families who bought in 09, in those darkest of times as of yet for us younguns. one bought based on previous and current income at the time..and the husband proceeded to lose his job shortly after purchase, decided to wait out the EMPLOYMENT market and did not look for a job at a time he thought everyone would be giving themselves away out of desperation, proceeded to deplete those wonderful post purchase reserves the invincibility of which is truly stuff of legend. about 9 mos ago he started seriously looking for a job, and about 4 mos ago they stopped paying their mortgage. other? that guy did find a job but one that pays a whole lot less than the one he had when they got approved by their board and they are trying to sell at a loss now because at the top of their priorities is their children's lifestyle and education. they will accept this loss and accept the burning sting to their pride, but the are simply no longer able to afford the family lifestyle they feel they as a family should have. this includes education, classes and tutors, vacations, expensive hobbies like horse back riding, skiing in the winter, beach in the summer. etc etc etc

Actually, extrapolating from comments posted here, quite a few SE regulars purchased 2009, 2010, and VERY early 2011, after they really had monitored the market. They certainly didn't think prices are going down.

Really??

They have a lot further to fall.

"but the are simply no longer able to afford the family lifestyle they feel they as a family should have. this includes education, classes and tutors, vacations, expensive hobbies like horse back riding, skiing in the winter, beach in the summer. etc etc etc "

right, so they didn't give up the lifestyle, they decided to give up the apartment and keep the lifestyle by slashing their housings costs. which was always basically my thing too, spend as little as possible on the house but have a life.

It might be useful to know this: what is the business outlook at Brook2's husbands law firm?

What is Brooks2 thinking after following those thousands of comps over the years?

Goldman boys have been buying up warehouse space in Detroit to house their hoarded scrap metal, all of the world's aluminum cans (NYT). Creating a spin around Detroit for personal gains, like George Soros' doom and gloom predictions. Expected behavior, another reason to discount them.

I thing it would be great if I married a rich lawyer. Unfortunately, my WIFE does not make that much money

good cover comment aboutready (oh sorry, Brooks2)

reallynow and missy penthouse (god knows where/what) be really wrong--if youve followed brooksie, you'll know via his offensive politics he aint no aboutready--his real estate read is quite good, tho, and useful

i am of couple b's ilk luc--education of my kids trumps all--fortunately ive been lucky, never had financial problems, but i'd cut all before i cut education, and the peripheral crap is part of education

and i was lucky emough to sell all my real estate but for a dumpy mortgageless CT house in 2007--renting, with most $$ at treasurydirect.gov is bliss

You really are a bitter little bottom, aren't you Wbottom?

Ph41, how many times do I have to tell you that Brooks isnt aboutready. But the answer is right under your nose.

hunter - all the ar SE mannerisms are definitely there - even to the obsession with lowball listings in Yorkville and midtown east. And the aggressiveness, and the comp style (cherry picking) postings. True, the name calling and epithets haven't appeared yet, but there's still time for that to show up.

ph1, ar was easy to bait and confrontational, i liked her but she is basically nuts. this one keeps his cool, lets things roll off. i don't think it's ar. ar is feisty and bossy and roams the streets in constant fight mode. girlfriend does NOT let things roll off. i thought maybe she was on meds, but that would only change her reaction not the way she expresses herself.

not bitter at all, missy penthouse--just think, with cheerful objectivity, that you are a moron

youre long some POS penthouse, which you advertise, and which blinds you to any rational consideration of the market--

if anything you inspire humor, not bitterness

I did not think that being a little more self reliant and not relying on government and expecting government hand outs was offensive.

Remember, ""A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have".

So be careful what you wish for.

Yes bottom - you're very bitter and VERY jealous. My home is DEFINITELY not some POS, though I'm fairly sure yours is.

Guess your ex-wife is living in the "dumpy, mortgageless CT house" while you live in your dumpy Manhattan apartment. Oh, that's right, you visit your girlfriend in Billyburg - just about right for the divorced guy in his 50's. So sad.

do you think this makes you look good?

luciilee ...are you talking about midtowneaster

NYC real estate is better than most other parts of the US. I believe it will still fall another 8% or so in 2012 but then it will start picking up as the Republicans will take over and more $ flows into NYC.

humm fall another 8%? how did you com up with that calculation. why not 7.6%, 11.4% or 26%?

How will the Republicans have more dollars flowing into NYC? Lower taxes on upper brackets or some other way?

missy ph, youve got to restrain yourself from fanta-size-ing about me.

how is your maintenance shaping up upcoming??