Is the rental market slowing down?

seasonality

Holidays- Winter is considered a slower season as compared to Spring & post-Labor Day.

The rental market hasn't slowed down a bit. 2-3 apps per apartment if they are priced right.

I noticed this for high-end listings a couple of weeks ago, with the amount being small in price but larger in the lingering-period of a well-priced listing, beyond seasonality:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/29067-high-end-rental-market-weakness

At more typical price points, I've noticed things like this where a well-priced listing is having trouble achieving its 2009 rent:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/797396-condo-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york

Note how last time around it rented after 1.5 months, but this time it has been lingering for 3.5 months and it's no-fee.

This newly-listed competing listing that also throws in a terrace at the same asking rent won't be helpful:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/825039-condo-220-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york

Tells you something when an apartment turns over every 2 years ... there's a fatal flaw. In this case, you treck all the way to Riverside that NYC novices don't think about when renting but certainly feel after 2 years: then the apartment you live in faces north or south from a low floor, overlooking another building right next to you... dark and depressing. No redeeming LOCATION qualities at all.

I have noticed the usual holiday dip post labor day. With that being said, there have been more inquiries on the rental side this year than the past. I think all of the past concessions (1-2 free months rent) have shifted the market a bit from August/September to later movers overall. Things that are priced right and solid value have been flying off the market in a day to four at most.

With 30 years in the Real Estate Rental market of Manhattan and as an active Broker I feel that Rental market in New York has made a Big come back!
Not much inventory is available out there (Vs the same time last year or the year before..) and that has pushed the rental prices backup to almost Pre recession times.
Of cousre we are in December and we have the classic and expected seasoanl "slow down" of activity.....as most poeple are preoccupied with the Holidays and Not many people are looking to make a move in the middle of the Holiday season.... unless of course they have to move!
I also feel that the tight rental market will push and help the Sales market to finally awake from a long sleep that has had over the past 3 yeasr.... even though less noticable in New York City... then any other part of the US Real Etstate Market!
Happy Holidays to all!
Harris Philip
917 539-0381

Pricing isn't doing it either- no fee, free cable/internet and still no takers. I think there's a slowdown

price is the only reason

if it's priced right, it'll be taken in 2 weeks at most

The location is too far away from subway stops. Compared with the Continental at Herald Square, it is very cheap.

the street is shedding jobs. not good. unless tech fills in the gap i think the RE market is headed lower for now.

Its always slower in December. How is it versus a year ago? The most recent rental reports say rents were up and concessions down in November YOY.

brooklyn is busier than manhattan.

"Its always slower in December. How is it versus a year ago? The most recent rental reports say rents were up and concessions down in November YOY."

Jason, you ever get the feeling that maybe the reports from RE sources are biased? So much so that eventually, they have to clean the slate with a huge write-down and start afresh from a lower base so as to continue showing increases?

"NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 "
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-existing-home-sales-to-be-revised-lower-in-meaningful-way-20111214,0,2475335.story

For example, take the following pair of reports from CitiHabitats for Jan 2008 and Nov 2011:

http://www.citi-habitats.com/media/pdf/1-2008-mra.pdf
http://www.citi-habitats.com/media/pdf/RMA%2011-11.pdf

Late 2007 / early 2008 was the peak of the rental market, much tighter than it is now the way I remember it. The vacancy rate claimed now is 1.16% as compared to 1.34% from back then. The claimed rents now are 4% higher than back then, whereas people who I know living in the same exact unit they were living in back then from a big LL just renewed for a rent that is 8% lower than their late 2007 rent from their initial lease.

Yeah, the rental market during Christmas time is always hot. I'm sure a lot of landlords keep their apt vacant in the summer so they put it on the market during the busy season in December so they can jack the rents up..
Another fantasy thought is having your lease dropped come renewal time by at least by 8% in 2011/2012 due to the lousy rental market conditions in Manhattan. What type of crack are you smoking?

keeps nada alert, that crack, joey--but the dope your shootin slows your brain

obviously nada's people have seen incremental declines resulting over more than one lease
in a recently renewed rent 8% lower

in the same three years i had two renewals, one with a 4% chop, the other flat--in real terms i am close to down 8% since the peak--

woops...the dope "you're" shooting, joey

the oxy's are slowing me

"Jason, you ever get the feeling that maybe the reports from RE sources are biased? So much so that eventually, they have to clean the slate with a huge write-down and start afresh from a lower base so as to continue showing increases?"

We have been over this. The Fed's beige book and the commerce department's NYC inflation figures show that rent and owners-equivalent rent have both been up YOY for many months in a row. By low single digits, but up. This is not some giant conspiracy.

@ Hairy Phillip.... 30yrs in the biz, the greatest fking 30 yrs in NYC RE ever recorded in modern times and never to be duplicated in 100yrs... and still shilling RE.... what a fking loser.

"We have been over this. The Fed's beige book and the commerce department's NYC inflation figures show that rent and owners-equivalent rent have both been up YOY for many months in a row. By low single digits, but up. This is not some giant conspiracy."

I'm not talking YOY, I'm talking late 2007 to present. CitiHabitats has rents 4% higher than the peak from 2007. Does this jive with your experience?

Do you really think the NAR bullshit was an innocent mistake?

"Another fantasy thought is having your lease dropped come renewal time by at least by 8% in 2011/2012 due to the lousy rental market conditions in Manhattan. What type of crack are you smoking?"

The lease was always year-to-year. In 2009, it was dropped 20% from the peak. Since then it's been raised 12%. So overall, they're down 8%. CitiHabitats has the average at +4% over this period. That means that either CH's report is flawed, or some huge professional LL is undercharging the market by 12%.

"I'm not talking YOY, I'm talking late 2007 to present."

Who on this thread is talking about this long a timeframe? No one. Certainly not TOP.

Here's what I said: "For example, take the following pair of reports from CitiHabitats for Jan 2008 and Nov 2011"

So for the third time, does a 4% increase since the 2007 peak sound right to you?

nada., do you have one fucking single thing in your stupid miserable existence that matters more to you than this board?

nada, how has megan's law effected your rental options? did you know major landlords are mapping address' of registered sex offenders?

Who are kidding? In most of Manhattan rents are higher in 2011 than they were in 2010. Rents are higher in 2011 than they were in 2009 and yes rents are higher in 2011 than in 2008. And yes rent will be higher in 2012 then will be in 2011. Maintenance, taxes, etc are all going to be higher in 2012 than in 2011 in Manhattan. Higher taxes, maintenance, etc. will be passed onto the renters in 2012.
If it makes you feel any better to believe rents are declining in most of Manhattan than go right ahead, enjoy and be happy.

Let me be clear Inonada - in this and every thread on the topic EVERYONE BUT YOU is discussing rents QoQ, or MoM, or YOY. No one but you interprets "are rents going up?" to be a question about 2007 versus today. Just like if someone said "Is gas going up?" They don't mean versus some peak from five years ago, they mean versus a year ago or last month. So you are arguing a straw man.

well whaddaya know, the retard helmet isn't on too tight tonight

Jason, you are acting dense. The reason the comparison to 2007 is relevant is because you take the report as gospel, yet you apparently do not believe the 4% increase it claims since late 2007 either. Add it up.

uh oh, inododo's sheen is wearing off

Miller Samuel, for example, has Q1 2008 average rent at $3850 and Q3 2011 at $3521. See how it is 8.5% lower, close to my anecdotal data point. Very different than CitiHabitat's 4% higher. If you look at YOY, the 3% bias is too hard to distinguish from noise. But after 4 years (which is how long they've been at it), it adds up. Another few years, and it's time to reset the methodology or revise the old numbers.

Uh oh, inododo needs the methodology to be "revised" because he's finding it tough to convince everyone based on his traditional metrics.

"Who are kidding? ...yes rents are higher in 2011 than in 2008."

You are incorrect, I believe. Ionada's stats jive w/ my anecdotal experience: I was lucky enough to have employer paid housing for most of 2008, so i leisurely looked for an apartment. In March 2008, everything i liked went from $4,700 to $5,300. Then Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008. Then Lehman collapsed in Sept 2008. By Nov 2008, i rented a place for $4,000 that was nicer than the places I looked at for $4,800 in March.

"Jibe." It would be interesting to see Ionada's stats "jive," but it means something completely different from "jibe."

I am quite confident you can come up with some examples of rent in some selected areas in Manhattan being lower in 2011 than in 2008. However, for the majority of the listings throughout Manhattan rents are higher in 2011 than they ever were. It all depends on the neighborhood. For areas like Chelsea, Flatiron, GV, WV, Soho and Tribeca the majority of the rents are at historic highs. On the other hand, Yorkville and some areas running from the upper far east-side and far north are probably not.

joey, your dope-shooting has dulled you to the extent that you join the camp that think an increase in LLs' expenses leads necessarily to rent increases

It ain't cool being no jive turkey so close to Thanksgiving.

Thanks, ME.

Inonada, neither I not anyone else is discussing now versus 2007. I do not give a shit. I care about is it more expensive than it was last year at this time. Every single survey and the Federal government data all say it is. It probably is still below the 2007 peak. People are way over 2007 data. People care about "will my lease by more than it was last year" not 2007. Shut the fuck up about 2007.

LL: I am raising you rent 15% in the new lease
Tenant: But that is 4% less than I paid in 2007. Ok, that is WONDERFUL NEWS!!!!!!

No one thinks like this. No one.

Driver: Gas is $4 a gallon!?!?!? Last time I was here, it was $3.50!?!?!?
Attendant: Well, it was $5 a gallon in 2007
Driver: Oh, you are right!!! I am SO HAPPY NOW!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No one thinks like this. No one.

Shopper: This cashmere sweater was $300 last week. Now it $400!!?!?
Bergdorf girl: Well, back when we invaded Afghanistan and the price of Cashmere soared, in inflation-adjusted terms this woudl have been $500. So its really a bargain.

No one thinks like this. No one.

Genius, read my first words on this thread. The ones you responded to:

"Jason, you ever get the feeling that maybe the reports from RE sources are biased? So much so that eventually, they have to clean the slate with a huge write-down and start afresh from a lower base so as to continue showing increases?"

Right now the numbers are 12% off YOY in CitiHabitats from my experience, Miller Samuel's data, and apparently your opinion too. That's a drift of 3% a year. If you look at any particular year, it can be written off as noise. After a while, it doesn't add up. Meanwhile, simpletons say "But the YOY number is up!" A decade later, we're still looking at rents flat to 2000 more or less. But I am sure every report and news story in between had an average of 5% YOY increase.

I do remember 2000. Rents were crazy. If you ignore 2001 to 2010, they have not gone up since 2000 which was the previous peak. However, between 1995 and 2000 they were up nearly 7-10% every year. 1 b/r went from $2500 max to $3500+ in a full service building (there were few high-end luxury buildings that time). This started a big construction boom and the rest is history.

So if rents in luxury highrise new construction buildings in prime Manhattan are still below a peak of Y2K, that still doesn't mean that rents are lower than in Y2K if you look at the bigger picture. Rents in NYC are a waterfall, or a pyramid, of overflowing sectors, so compare your Dec 2011 rents in those alternatives in the same period and wadayaget? If you were sick of paying $3,500 for your one-brm in the most expensive part of Manhattan in Y2K and you decided to move to Williamsburg, or Park Slope, or Astoria, or Washington Heights (oops, sorry, NYCMatt.... HUDSON Heights) or Harlem, you could find something cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap by comparison. Now you can pay $3,500 for a one-bedroom in Williamsburg and have all the expense of Manhattan with none of the convenience. I don't think the 10-year comparison makes today look like such a great time to be shopping.

>Now you can pay $3,500 for a one-bedroom in Williamsburg and have all the expense of Manhattan with none of the convenience.

There's a ferry.

Jive, I says...

Then you are even less erudite than Mutombo. See below:

http://grammar.about.com/od/alightersideofwriting/a/Gibe-And-Jibe.htm

Sorry about the gibe, but your comment about jibe is jive.

>less erudite
We can always count on a grammar and big word lesson from MidtownerVirgin

What should we make of Related, an obviously smart developer, who switched its towers in Mima from condo to high end rental? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204026804577098362971128148.html

Related Switches Condos to Rentals
By ELIOT BROWN
For at least three years, Related Cos. had been planning for the 151 apartments on the highest floors of its new apartment tower in Midtown to be condominiums, sitting atop 663 rental units in the building's first 50 stories.

"Related is putting all of the formerly for-sale apartments up for rent, aiming at the high-end with rents of more than $20,000 a month for a three-bedroom unit. "
"The shift away from condos comes as the rental market has taken landlords by surprise with its growth. Rents in many buildings are at peak levels, while condo prices have lagged. "

"and the 500 apartments always planned as market rate rentals are more than 90% leased, at rents above where Related expected, according to the company. "

"The units at the top are larger than the rest of the apartments —two bedrooms generally on the top levels range between 1,200 and 1,400 square feet, compared with 1,100 to 1,200 square feet in the apartments below, for instance—and come with a separate lobby and entrance initially meant for the condo buyers.

The rents, of course, are higher as well. Expected rents range from $4,595 a month for the smallest apartments to $20,000 a month for the largest three-bedroom units. "

and now rentals do seem to be lingering on the market a lot longer than last year