Slow Bleed........

Excuse the error: I got on the wrong link at the Aldyn. The comparable 2 bed is 200 sq ft less not more than 10 west. Pardon error but still a problem for buyers in the area.

Aldyn link

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/593960-condo-60-riverside-blvd-lincoln-square-new-york

Very good point. That is why I feel reluctant to make a purchase commitment. Seemingly it is more expensive to rent than buying now, but it is not true considering the costs involved in the process of buying and selling, plus tax, interest, common charges...

Another thread started by apt23, seeking w67 to come through her backdoor:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor

>Excuse the error: I got on the wrong link at the Aldyn. The comparable 2 bed is 200 sq ft less not more than 10 west. Pardon error but still a problem for buyers in the area

Wow, such a deflated tone in only 8 minutes of checking your work. What a role model for kids.

This is at The Harrison. $93K loss on price. About $150K loss (10%) on transaction costs.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/546985-condo-205-west-76th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

10/10/2007
Previously Listed by Related Sales at $1,485,000.
08/05/2009
Related Sales Listing sold.
08/05/2009
Previous Sale recorded for $1,513,664.
03/07/2010
Previously Listed by CMB Realty, LLC at $1,749,000.
08/17/2010
Listed by CMB Realty, LLC at $1,749,000.
08/23/2010
Price decreased by 15% to $1,495,000.
08/25/2010
Delisted by CMB Realty, LLC. Last priced at $1,495,000.
12/17/2010
Listing is no longer available.
12/29/2010
Re-listed by CMB Realty, LLC.
02/08/2011
Listing entered contract.
04/11/2011
Listing sold.
04/11/2011
Sale recorded for $1,420,000.

apt23, the examples you point out should not be a surprise to anyone as these are 2007 buys. The market is down 15% from the peak. Transaction costs can be as low 6-7% (minus 1.5%/2% broker rebate + 1% mansion tax + 5% commission at the time of sale + 1% mortgage tax + 1% sundry). If you hold the property for such a short time, you are bound to lose money due to transaction tax.

One day more! I love that song from les mis.

what a sap

300: Are you saying you can get the broker to agree to a 4 - 4.5% commission on apts under 1.5mm in NYC? Other than Keith B and W81, most brokers would fight you to the death. And, since I am actively looking as my rent renewal is coming up, I am finding many apts listed well over their 2007 prices.

And, as you can see in the first example at 10 WEA, the apt sold in 2009 for less than the 2007 price but now, even with cuts, the ask is still above the 2007 price. It should in fact close at least 15% below this ask. At the Harrison, the apt sold in August 2009, well after the top of the market. Which is to say, that people have been paying prices that are way too high and as they have to sell, the losses pile up.

And as the tax abatements end there will be more losses. Here is a beautiful apt that the owners obviously invested a lot of money in and it is currently asking below its 2005 price. I suppose it is possible that the losses stop here but since it has been on the market a few months, I doubt it. And, the cc's are getting high as the abatement should end in about three years.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/640642-condo-455-central-park-west-manhattan-valley-new-york

oooh ooooh ooooooh, someone responded to me, someone responded to me.

apt23, what's the real point of this thread? Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're staunchly a member of pro-rent (and proudly so) crowd, no? If so, why even look at buying anytime in the near future?

bjw: I have been a happy renter because the spread sheet dictated when it was time to sell (in my case, '05 and '07). However, when the spreadsheet says to buy, I will be a willing buyer. Since my rent renewal is coming up at then end of the year, I am looking for input for my spreadsheet -- especially now in case i have to do construction.

In my search, I was of kind of shocked by the fact that every single condo seller takes their purchase price, adds the transaction costs, then adds a premium of about 10%. I find it amazing that sellers (and buyers!!) don't take a look at the losses at condos across the city and get a little more realistic. Or that the agents don't clue them in. I should have started a thread tracking new condo losses but I was busy this morning and doing three projects at once, hence the error in my op. The thread will die tomorrow but I might just get some serious about ready kind of comparisons and put together something more definitive.

For my part, I have a feeling that I will continue in the stock market and end up paying cash when mortgage rates hit 7% plus.

apt23: The expectation of full recovery isn't limited to condo owners. The new listing for 490 WEA #12C is a fairly typical example from the pre-war coop world:
04/25/2005 Listed by Halstead at $1,795,000.
05/19/2005 Listing entered contract.
09/08/2005 Previous sale recorded for $1,875,000.
03/16/2012 Listed by Douglas Elliman at $2,100,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/670405-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Most - if not all - of the renovations pre-date the 2005 bidding war. So, what justifies a price of $1400/SF for this smallish, rear-facing six? Probably nothing, except the owners paid $1250/SF and they want their money back, plus transaction costs. And who knows - they might get lucky. I do like the apartment - particularly the conversion of the maid's bath into a jack-and-jill.

apt23 - "you can get the broker to agree to a 4 - 4.5% commission on apts under 1.5mm in NYC?"
YES. Actually, 4% , all under $1M, is seen frequently, regardless of the popular legend.

apt23, I assume you're being a bit tongue-in-cheek about the spreadsheet dictating your decision making-process, but I don't quite get why you would need to "do construction" on a rental??

As for the sticker-shock you're experiencing - I find it's largely a waste of time to pay much attention to asking prices. Easier said than done, but as you say, many of these numbers are pretty aspirational. It's kind of the rational thing to do in most cases though, so you just have to be willing to weed through the owners who are apirational-delusional and aspirational-reasonable. There are enough of the latter out there in my experience.

Basically, apt23 is a buyer, but she's just seeking w67thstreet's blessing. Talk about daddy issues.

bjw: the spreadsheet is for rent vs buy calculations. I am looking to see if there is an apartment that I would want to buy that would make more sense than renting for another couple of years -- especially taking in to consideration mortgage rates. It is also a good time to consider estate type projects to buy since I am in a rental and I could renovate in the next few months.

W81 - it is surprising how many sellers do actually "get lucky" and get their price. The apt I would like to have in asking 35% over comp sales in the building in 2007. It would be like buying someone else's loss. People still don't understand the long slow process of de-leveraging in economies. But as more and more sellers experience the pain of losing on price and transaction costs I think it will begin to sink in. There is always a tipping point. Remember in the 90's when the New York times finally did front page stories about the average families that couldn't sell their apts anywhere near purchase price? Suddenly prices came down all over Manhattan as if it was one entity.

We are at the tipping point.
Foreclosure mess closed out;
U coming down (as more $10/hr jobs are created);
Spikes in 10 yr yields;
Acceptance of smaller wall street going forward;
Harder credit;
Higher taxes/maintenance;
Acceptance of the existence of massive bubble.

Except for lateral moves, and we all know these ninnies are the exact gotta have it now buyers and have traded already.... Nyc re is dead in the water.

>
>apt23
about 9 hours ago
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bjw: the spreadsheet is for rent vs buy calculations. I am looking to see if there is an apartment that I would want to buy that would make more sense than renting for another couple of years -- especially taking in to consideration mortgage rates. It is also a good time to consider estate type projects to buy since I am in a rental and I could renovate in the next few months.

uh oh, apt23 is having a slow bleed.

apr23, where do I say 4-4.5% commission in "Transaction costs can be as low 6-7% (minus 1.5%/2% broker rebate + 1% mansion tax + 5% commission at the time of sale + 1% mortgage tax + 1% sundry". Broker rebate is when you buy. 5% commission is very common.

Also, is the purpose of your post to highlight listings who are still looking for 2007 prices or that if you sell within a few years, you will surely lose money?

is 7 yrs too short? That is the average duration of home ownership. So yes if you bought in 05' and you want to sell you will lose money. It is that simple.

that is correct. that is why i did not buy in 2005. However, in real terms prices are at 2004 level and rates are low making it were affordable.

were = more

but you bot recently as prices were falling?... instead when they were rising in 05'?. incomes were rising in 05', the economy was growing. so you decide to buy recently when the world is delevering, incomes falling, taxes rising, and other cost rising. Interest rates are now rising and you think in 7 years from your purchase you will be better off, in the money after transaction costs?

Look forward. Somewhere on this board only a couple of months back I called SPX 1400 shortly as the macro data is good.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/28373-what-if-the-stock-market-is-still-a-bubble

Here is a thread. Brooks, learn to look forward.

>so you decide to buy recently when the world is delevering, incomes falling, taxes rising, and other cost rising.

So should you buy when there's blood in the streets or no?

hburg, you mean buy an apartment. In my view, the worst is behind us for manhattan prime real estate - there is a small possibility that manhattan prime real estate may be 5% off but a much higher probability that it will be up 10-15% in the next 3 years.

Hburg, i see more bleeding, 300 thinks its over, I don't. that's what makes markets. We will see.

plus, I doubt I will want to live in the same place in 7 years. transaction cost are way too high to buy if you are not staying put for at least 7-8 years.

"the worst is behind us"..... that's a good one..... laughter makes you healthy. Thank you mercer

>plus, I doubt I will want to live in the same place in 7 years. transaction cost are way too high to buy if you are not staying put for at least 7-8 years.

Absolutely sensible to focus on the option with the most mobility if you expect your life circumstances to change, and in fact if you listen to inododo, you have to have the stomach for the moving and bare knuckle negotiations that are probably best for a single or young childless couple (plus the walkups he keeps pointing to).

What if you have a couple of little ones - how often do you expect to move? Maybe less than every 7 years given a child spends 13 years in school.

What if you had little ones... But I do. My job as god intended is to make sure my seeds have a better life than a Borker pining away for the good ole days. I make fun of you huntersberger bc I care about your offsprings. They should serve my kids their happy meals.

Now stfu and go buy other ppls nyc re if you care so much about their well being. Fking self serving fk.

Rule one of w67 approach to a seller

1) you are selling bc you are sucking azz financially.
2) if you are not suffering financially, then I assume you will sell for a discount to mkt to get going on your magnificent wealthy life. There are girls to be bedded. Things to be bought. You the MAN!
3) there are no laws prohibiting the ownership of 2 condos in nyc. Some rich ppl one on uws and one on ues. Crash pads so not have to walk x park.

Don't want my money. Someone else does like your upstairs neighbor.

Everyone listing at 2007-2011 prices hoping for a lotto jackpot. You do know you gotta buy a ticket to win lotto, right? Flmaozzzzz

My offspring are too old to serve your kids Happy Meals.

How are my comments self serving? You assume I'm a broker? Or a seller? Neither in fact.

But how about you? What's your interest in the decline? Buy more? Yes, more - you own your parents co-op. You own commercial real estate. You've invested in the past in residential real estate and been in litigation with your tenants. So, how about your self interest?

>Don't want my money. Someone else does like your upstairs neighbor.

You are a buyer? I guess that's your self interest.

Also, I've never told anyone to buy a primary home, sell their home, or rent. One size doesn't fit all - my problem is with the arguments that assume otherwise.

Plenty of old ppl serve my kids happy meals.

Just once in awhile, your moral convictions and sense of justice align with your financial well being. Here it be. Just a moment in time and I really don't know net net if my circle of family and friends will be financial losers in this circle jerk, but let's just say wherever it ends up, I'd be happy with less bubbles. Less 15% tax rate for bubblers vs my family's 40% tax rate. Hard work = financial gain. you know, the American ideal.

And btw. If you are neither re Borker nor seller nor benefitted from the bubble why the fk are you on se? Just a lonely old person who took a computer class. What a waste. Donate some time to a homeless sheltered would ya?

>And btw. If you are neither re Borker nor seller nor benefitted from the bubble why the fk are you on se?

Why are you here?

>Just a lonely old person who took a computer class.

Yes, you got me, I took Video Professor Streeteasy before their cheap ad time went to the Cash For Gold people and they effectively went out of business.

>What a waste. Donate some time to a homeless sheltered would ya?

That's a waste. Homeless shelters can be served by homeless people based on the level of skill required to put some food on a plate and take a photo for PR. I do more and for no PR.

You?

No reply?
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And where's Apt23? Hopefully she visited her OB-GYN to stop the slow bleeding.

I agree with folks who are seeing the bleed. It's especially true for the 1BRs. What's hot as heck, at least in certain parts of the city, are the 2Brs+, including the Jr-4 conversion to a tiny 1BR. I call them 1.5BR :) instead of the 1.5 bath.

In certain cases, the bleed has turned into a gush! Recently saw a listing that lost over $230K from its 2008 peak asking of $810K. Currently the unit is asking $575K. That's a whopping 28% reduction. This is in a desirable building in a desirable neighborhood right by CPW in the low West 70s.

Saw another listing for a duplex, very desirable neighborhood. Current listing is 32.5% below the sale price of a comparable unit, same line and 9 floors lower! 32.5% here isn't 10K or 20K but $500K. Yes, the comp was sold about a year ago for $500K more. It's the same line and even the rehab is almost the same. Some slow bleed has turned into a big gush.

BTW, I didn't include any specific details of the units mentioned because I am not about to do free advertising :) Regardless, stay tune.

300_mercer, hate to burst your "bubble" but Twist is ending in June and LTRO 2 is highly unlikely. Macro data ? China PMI ain't exactly going gang buster now is it ?

Here is the slow bleed story of an uber lemming. This person bought this beautiful apt at the very top of the bubble in 2007 for almost 50% more than the seller paid for it two years earlier in 2005. In 2005 there were already stories of the bubble pricing. This buyer should have realized that the seller probably paid a high price 05 and nothing in any economy could justify a 50% rise off an already high price in two years in any housing market in history. But lemmings will be lemmings

Now, he tried to sell it at an even higher price in 2010. But there seems to be a shortage of lemmings. After two years, he has finally dropped it to his egregiously high purchase price of $4.75mm. So he loses his transaction costs. If anyone buys this apt for more than the 05 price, then they are effectively buying the sellers stupidity -- and his losses. It might be alright for someone who never has to sell --say an older couple who will live out their days in the apt but at 4.75mm one would have many more choices in nicer buildings with more amenities. I think this will be a slow, long bleed

75CPW:

03/07/2005
Previous Sale recorded for $3,200,000.
10/12/2007
Previous Sale recorded for $4,750,000.
09/24/2010
Previously Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $5,885,000.
05/17/2011
Off market temporarily. Last priced at $5,775,000.
09/24/2011
Listed by Corcoran at $5,250,000.
12/19/2011
Price decreased by 10% to $4,750,000.

apt 23, is the point you are trying to make is that this apartment should clear at 2005 prices which is where the average Manhattan property is?

str33, the point you make is perfect reason to short equities and bonds as well. Why limit it to real estate? Keep in mind that bond sell-off will be result of stronger economy which puts a bid in all assets except bonds. Real estate offers a great way to take advantage of the fed giving away free money. I believe that we are still early in the recovery which will be slow but will continue for many years.

300_mercer, short equities AND bonds ? If the time comes when you can short equities AND bonds, I think I can buy your apartment 40 or even 30 cents on the dollar. Think about what you just said. Contrary to what everyone is telling you, including your investment advisors, if bond sells off, it won't be because of a stronger economy. And when bond sells off, rates will rise which will not put a bid under real estate! Get the cross current correct my friend.

"apartment should clear at 2005 prices which is where the average Manhattan property is?"
depending on how you define "average Manhattan property", I'm not seeing that. I see many asks well above 2005 levels. However, 2005 was a bubble year.

yeah, 2005 price is not realistic at the moment. 2008 price is very realistic. However, given time, I believe 2005 price and pre-2005 price will be realistic again. It is neither lemming or wishful thinking given the current economic environment. Is anyone seeing Wall Street bonuses bouncing back anytime soon ? If you say yes, I definitely like to hear the arguments. Because where I sit, I don't see that. I see the exact opposite.

RE 75 CPW, yeah that ain't happening anytime soon.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/636728-coop-75-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york

"Seldom Available"
Only in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, and 2012. But that's it!

"Indescribable helicopter Views"
Helicopter views from the 15th floor? I'll decribe that one for you. That's one scary-as-hell low-flying helicopter. How about "panoramic"?

That really made me laugh Ino.

RE: 75 CPW, the master BR and LR are small!

75 CPW is a perfect example of the current pricing/price history I've seen. If there had been a pre-2005 sale price, I bet it'd be jaw dropping when compared to the last ask. If there had been a 2002-03 sale, I'm guessing it'd probly be around $2,500,000-ish.

Yeah str33t, that living room is downright depressing for $4.75M.

inonada, lol, the entire apartment is underwhelming for that price. That unit would be perfect as a combo with another adjacent unit and that's it. As a stand alone, is that worth a 4.75M view, i.e., low floor without a terrace and only 3 baths and no guest bath ? :)

I thought apt23 got her slow bleed checked out by her OB-GYN.

oh, str33t, a "new" financially savy poster.

str33t, it's not a bad height for views IMO. Fifth Ave buildings rarely get much higher than that, and most on CPW beyond Lincoln Square are the same story (with a few notable exceptions). To me, you have to get up to above 40 floors for "helicopter views". Not that it is necessarily a good thing. The thing that makes it "helicopter" is a sense of detachment from that below. You lose the sense of panorama & connection & visual illusion of a "front lawn" that you'd get on the 15th floor. I.e., your field of view starts becoming more sky than land.

As long as we're complaining, the actual exposure to the park is not great. While the living room exposure is appropriate for a 13' room, the bedroom exposure is through a very small window. And the remaining small window is wasted on a bathroom. I like the idea of a bathroom facing CP, but not in an apt that has so little to work with.

inonada, I stand corrected. You're right it isn't a bad height. It's on the 15th floor so not a low floor. I didn't check the apartment number and just went by the photos. I think the photographer must have used zooming because the CP pictures show much lower elevation, almost tree-line elevation. Still, is it a $4.75M view ? :)

inonada, yes, agree on the lay out as well. Let's say there are 3.25 windows with CP exposure. Using my very proprietary Windows to CP exposure ratio calculation, each window is worth approximately $1.46M :)

New posters don't ignore me. Only people who are trained to, or have reason to ignore me, ignore me.