Another Down Indicator: Wall St Cash Bonuses Down

I love these one off posts designed to scare.

I especially love them when the person posting either didn't read the article or didn't understand it.

Bonuses may well be down next year, substantially. All this article says is that the bonuses for the senior mgmt team of one bank will be paid in a higher % of stock.

So in conclusion, it applies to a small group of persons at one bank (many of whom are probably looking at places at a $ range that hardly anyone cares about), it doesn't say that bonuses for those folks are down, it specifically mentions trying to distribute the cash amongst lower paid employees, and it sayd that any adjustment in the cash/equity payment mix is in line with the other banks.

The world is ending, sell sell sell!!!!

Yeah, KISS probably extrapolates too much from the 'news' he refers to. Still, this is not an "arrows up" piece of news. Maybe it's neutral, or maybe its another little warning sign to be cautious for a while. No, the sky hasn't fallen, but there's no need to fiddle like a lunatic as the room fills with smoke just because there's no fire in sight, yet. (Ok, that metaphor got out of hand...I'm too lazy to re-write it).

exactly ccdevi, additionally, wouldn't it be just as easy to assume that we can expect a boom in the 12-36 months following these stock grants when all of those shares vest and are liquidated to buy property?

thats right, I don't think its material in the least but its not good news, I guess I just don't see what the point of these posts are. Does anyone visiting this board not know whats going on in the world, that times are tough, we might be in or headed into a recession, that real estate is under pressure in nyc?

We get it already, many of you are very happy about the state of the world and only hoping it gets worse, hoping that it gets you 20% off on your 1 bedroom.

Hey. Looking for a place to live is kinda stressful for a lot of people. Making the largest purchase of their lives is also anxiety provoking. Chatting on these boards relieves the stress. It isn't like there is a finite amount of forum space and they are using up something that others now can't put to better use. Markets are full of uncertainty and people just want to chatter. I for one don't mind it. So long as it isn't SteveHx.

course its not about space but c'mon kyle, thats kinda my point, it is very stressful, and these posts aren't meant to inform or educate, just to scare, imo.

I don't think they are meant just to scare. It is a little like self-soothing for buyers who are thinking: "I can't afford anything right now and feel horrible about NYC RE as a result...maybe I will be able to buy something soon if there's a market correction," or "My financial guy and friends tell me to wait a little longer because prices will come down some, but my broker tells me prices keep going up on good property...what should I do!!??" I don't think the intent of posts like this is malicious. And the exchange of thoughts--not just information--is okay with me. Except for SteveHx. I've had enough of him.

It's also worth noting that anyone waiting on the sidelines or seriously looking but exercising caution has been absolutely bombarded by uneneding propaganda from brokers, bulls and lazy media, even in the face of negative indicators. Now we have lines like "better times are just around the corner" and "what difference does 10-20% make if your time horizon is 5 years or more." If the article was about a sudden Wall St. bonus turnaround, it would have been posted here by a different person for a different reason.

I don't think it's meant to scare, I think it's meant to be a caution and a suggestion to wait it out. We all know the RE will recover at some point in the future but if you are in the market to buy right now, maybe the best thing to do is wait considering the economic indicators. The only people who get threatened are the ones who just recently bought or the ones who wanted their property to keep going up in value. Just my opinion. If you are a potential buyer, and I am one, this does not scare me.

ccdevi,

Give me a liiiittle credit. I have worked on Wall St for 20+ years, and seen a few cycles. I also worked at the bank quoted above. For those who took the post literally, let me elucidate: those at the 50% cash level moved to the 25% cash level. Less senior people (usually tiered by total comp), would be at higher cash levels (e.g., 75%, 80%, etc). Without giving away too much, the greater impact will be at the lower comp levels who may get correspondingly lower percentages of cash, following the lead of the senior mgmt level.

Juiceman,

Yes, when the stock vests 3 or 4 yrs down the road, yes some of that could reasonably be expected to flow into RE, but the Wall St cycle (in my view) would likely have turned up by then anyway.

As kylewest says, I am not trying to scare anyone here, but rather share some info that others may not have. I am relatively new to the board, so I am not sure what kind of scar tissue long-time people here have accumulated, but I have found some very useful info here, so I am just trying to give back.

If you don't find it helpful, that is your prerogative, but please don't project or impute any bad intentions on my part. You don't know anything about me, and I don't think my previous posts warrant that.

I think it's an incremental anecdote that speaks to a larger trend...the cash portion of Wall Street bonus payments is being reduced, and in many cases (UBS et al) it is being explicitly capped in dollar terms. The reduction in available cash via bonuses (bonii?) is especially relevant in light of the near extinction of creative mortgage financing.

KISS, I don't think any of us in the business disagree that times are rough. But, those of us in the biz also know the rougher the better. This is a scenario where bleeding out is better than a slow bleed. Let it all unwind fast and hard and let's get on to recovery. Sure, real estate will drop. I tihnk that is something most people agree on. But, only a narrow percentage of people will time it right/benefit. Well done to those who buy in a lull. But, again, that will be so few people it is hardly worth analysing.

Some anxiety is no doubt being felt by buyers who don't know whether to pull the trigger or are just frustrated with what they can't afford right now. But the most anxiety is likely felt by those sellers who planned to or find themselves having to sell within the next year or so. Not everyone has choices. Kids get born and grow up and make a family burst at the seams in a small apt, people want to transfer jobs to another city or retire to somewhere from NYC but can't if they don't sell. Some people are overextended and may be forced to sell if they lose their jobs. Other get divorced and can't wait two years to sell. Posts like the one that started this thread surely fuel their anxiety.

I don't feel that there are a lot of posters in this board who are desperate to sell. I can at least recognize three types - long-time homeowners, potential buyers, and recent homeowners. I'm new here, so I could be wrong. :)

Also renters who have no chance of ever buying unless a dirty bomb goes off in NYC....

KISS, I actually didn't take your post as doom and gloom. I think you are just receiving some unwarranted backlash based on the behavior of some other mis-informed doom and gloomers.

However, I do agree with ccdevi on the scare tactics. I'm all for relieving some stress (I may have done that from time to time on this board) but to sit around and post nonsense about prices falling 50%, ARM's being illegal, 9%-10% is the only rate you can get in the market, the banking system is next to apocalypse, blah, blah, blah. It all gets very tiring. Most of these posts are fabricated bullsh*t aimed to scare and nothing more. I don’t really care, because I think most people on this board are smart enough to ignore it. It is fun to point out the crap though and you can spend an infinite amount of time doing that. There is a lot of fabricated crap posted on this board.

I think my distaste for the doomers is different how I feel about a renter trying to make a decision on buying or a buyer in the market waiting for the right opportunity. That's what this board is for right? I would bet that all of the folks you renters call bulls (even spunky) would agree with most of the thought processes of an educated buyer waiting to pull the trigger.

I just can't stand the colossal ignorance of an uneducated, blow hard doomer.

Juiceman,

And I can't stand the colossal arrogance of those who respond to posts they disagree with by resorting to ad hominem-type attacks or suggesting some hidden agenda or motive on the part of a poster they know nothing about (you know who you are, on both sides).

My orig point was that crappy Wall St bonuses (old news) may be even crappier because of higher deferred stock components, which I think might be new news here -- esp since Wall St bonuses have provided some of the jet fuel behind the NYC RE mkt the past few years, insulating it from the national housing downturn. But I could be wrong, so if this was already known here, just say that. Don't impugn me or my motives. And no, I am not a renter, but an owner who would be selling into this market.

eah,

I agree that a bleedout is better than a slow bleed, but I think the Wall St mess will take a couple of years to sort out. We are just in the beginning of that cycle.

KISS - I see you've met Juiceman and have figured him out pretty quickly (not much of a challenge there). He and his idiot twin spunky regularly resort to ad hominems and low-level personal attacks for lack of anything substantive to offer or remotely meaningful arguments to advance. Their swirly-eyed behavior has gotten even more pronounced with the slowdown in the market.

I miss spunky. At least his response was always predictable ("pay rent ha ha").

ccdevi: its ok, relax, all you have to do is keep your overpriced property on the market for another couple of years till it sells - no biggie! real estate in manhattan never goes down because manhattan is an island. :-)

faustus, thanks for showing up. You are the perfect subject of my last post, "an uneducated, blow hard doomer". Your timing is impeccable.

Oh, and if you had a clue (which everyone on this board knows you do not) you would have realized that KISS was not talking about me.

No, I was not referring to Juiceman. But I am relatively new here. ;-)

Not Juiceman? Incomprehensible!

Alright, arrow's back in my quiver. I'll await the next cue.

Cleanslate "three types - long-time homeowners, potential buyers, and recent homeowners"

I belive you can add investors in Manhattan apartment who are trying to rent them out, sell them or leverage equity. In addition there are real estate brokers, developers.

Funny, ynh. Damn hard to believe. KISS, you'll understand soon enough.

usual suspects showing up, where's imom and mafia? what a sad state of affairs, just hoping, praying for that drop, so they can either afford that 1 bedroom or to make them feel better about the money they didn't make.

cartman, nice try. i sold last year, sold one about 6 years before that, its those deals that gave me the cash and net worth to buy the new beautiful 3 bedroom I'll be moving into soon, bought at a price thats still below market, but I think I'll just live there for the next 10+ years. I understand dude, I'm bummed I was conservative and didn't make a whole lot more, killed myself renting for 2.5 years after the first sale. oh well.

Yes KISS. It won't take long for you to realize that faustus comes on this board once a month, hurls some insults, and then goes back to his basement rental. He is a funny little grunt, bitter to the end. It would be one thing if he actually had an opinion, but he lacks the intelligence required to form a logical argument. So we just treat him just like the local crazy person that yells obscenities at passer bys, a bit annoying but harmless enough.

KISS, you must be very flattered that Juiceman and I are competing for your affections like this!

Anyway, not to flog a dead horse, but all you need to do is read Juiceman's posts, scattered all over this site like manure, to realize that:

(1) He'll argue in the face of all contrary statistics that the market can only go up up up and awaaaayy!!! He's a pumper's pumper. Yeah, he's one of those. Kind of like spunky.
(2) Whenever anyone presents him with statistics/arguments to the contrary, his best response is to complain that they are trying to talk down the market. Kind of like blaming the weatherman for the rain.
(3) He's an idiot.
oh, and
(4) He's an idiot.

ccdevil hmmm... we aren't in high school anymore

juiceman, faustus, now we have a full reunion, where's the spunkster when u need him?

EAH "Sure, real estate will drop. I tihnk that is something most people agree on."

This is new. I think a few months ago there would have been a few people who would disagree.

Really, this has gone too far. The irony is not lost on me -- I have decried the substance-less content of some of the posts here in an effort to keep the thread from being hijacked and this is how it ends?

Please respond only if on-topic (and I am referring to the Subject line). Thx!

I'll leave it to you KISS (or anyone else). Do a search on faustus' posts over the last few months. Not one opinion, not one shred of common sense. He is the guy that logs onto a blog to hurl insults at people because he can't stand up for himself in real life. Pathetic. Probably kicks his dog and swears at his grandma.

As for 1&2 above, why don't you give it a try faustus? What statistic or argument would you like to discuss? Do you have any? Have you ever? You realize this is a real estate blog right? Or did the pretty colors on the home page confuse you when you were searching for WWF?

Sure, Juiceman, you silly little fool. How bout rapidly growing inventory (up something like 25% in 2 months)? How bout escalating price reductions - surely you look at the stats on this site? How bout a little hiccup that Wall Street has had? Remember bonuses? Well most folks I know on Wall Street are working for their salaries this year. How bout a NYC municipal budget that's about to implode (for the same reasons)? How bout a lack of credit availability?

Here's another one for you Juice. I have a ton of apartments on my saved search list. As you know, Streeteasy updates your saved listings for any changes is listing status. Until February, those updates would include "In Contract" and "Listing No Longer Available". Over the past two months, about 90% of the updates have been "Price Reduced".

Is your mouth full yet, Juiceman? Do you get it? At all? Or are you unable to digest "common sense"?

If not, I can't help you Juice.

Bottom line is the downside risk is so much greater than the risk of prices increasing. Juiceman, I expect nothing more than that you'll keep living in your land of eternal price increases and blame the rest of us for "talking down the market".

But Juice, I know that on days when the Dow is up I'll get to read your posts about how everything is suddenly fine again and the real estate market is rocking. Because that's the level of complexity of your analysis.

Much better, now we are talking faustus. Problem is, I wouldn't argue with any of those points (and never have). See, those are (fairly) fact based comments. Old news, but mostly fact based. You must have me confused with someone else buddy, I don't argue with things you hear on CNN. If your biggest AH-HA is that the "Bottom line is the downside risk is so much greater than the risk of prices increasing"...well, thanks for your wonderful prognostications. I've really learned a lot tonight from your educated and deep rooted analysis.

I understand you have lots of anger faustus, but shouldn't you have a clue about what someone's position is before you attack them with your bullsh&t? I understand your real estate knowledge is about as deep as an editorial in the NY Post, but you should at least understand what you are arguing and who you are arguing with before you ruin a perfectly good thread with yourforth grade behavior.