wow prices are stronger than ever

SteveF: interested in your comp snalysis. For Manhattan, what do you estimate the % increase from 3Q2008/1Q2009 to be? Bought during that period and have been happy ever since! I think I have made about 25%; of course, its not realized until sold...

oldgreyhair..congratulations. Did you buy a coop or condo my good man?

of course, its not realized until sold...
sure it is if I may be so bold as to say....do a cash out refi and it's tax free money in your pocket(no cap gains). I did that for a down payment on my next investment and so and so on cheers!:)

Sup brother!
What you been up to?

Really? I did a comp analysis from 2006 and prices are flat, down >10% adjusted for inflation, excluding transaction costs.

But then again I use real numbers (median price per square foot), not invented ones.

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMR06.pdf

2006 average price per square foot: $1,031.

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMR06.pdf

2013 average price per square foot: $1,103.

http://www.millersamuel.com/files/2013/04/Manhattan_1Q_2013.pdf

Cumulative inflation since 2006: 13.44%

Average transaction costs (buy + sell): 13% - 15%.

Real estate commission = 6%
Mortgage tax / flip tax = 2%
Transfer tax = 2%
Mansion tax = 1%
Other (lawyer, etc.) = 2%

Seems to me to have been a pretty crappy deal - especially if you bought at a time when renting cost half of owners' carrying costs (which is not currently the situation).

ps: "principal," not "principle."

In general yes, Stevejdx, but that includes every unit type and every location. On individual units, especially two to four bedroom apartments in desirable locations, PPSF went from 1000-1200 PSFT to 1750 - 1950 PSFT today. If you count financing the IRR is tremendous, not even counting that persons use and enjoyment of the unit during the intervening years. Also there is a lag in your index's, so if prices are showing 1,103 that is from 2012 and early 2013 sales, but the market has moved faster than that in the past few months, so the next indicator will likely be up even further.

this thread is a perfect example of why streeteasy now sucks

poster a: "im smarter than you because i bought when i did and statistics will bear this out, here is my proof"

poster b: "no, IM smarter because i rent. here is my proof"

you are BOTH stupid for engaging in this meaningless drivel with complete strangers.

have some people done very well buying and selling real estate in the last handful of years? sure.

have some done very poorly buying and seeling in the same period? sure.

Well regarding lag, that would be ever-present.

I never said that individual units and individual blocks and individual neighborhoods wouldn't experience different results. I simply took the market average.

And actually, if you count financing the IRR has been miserable. If you put down 20% and your unit, after inflation and costs, is worth 20% less than you paid for it, then your IRR = 0. Leverage works both ways, and that is the average for Manhattan, different individual cases notwithstanding. In that case you are effectively underwater.

Then, if you purchased in 2006 when renting cost half as much as buying, you did nothing but waste your money, "use and enjoyment" notwithstanding: you could have "used and enjoyed" an equivalent unit at half the price.

There were very good times to buy in Manhattan, and we may be entering into them again as prices stagnate. But 2006 wasn't the year to do it, especially if you worked for Lehman Brothers.

Yup, confirmed. Jim_Hores is C0lumbiaC0unty. Identical posting style. C0C0, you slipped up this time and forgot to use your Jim Hores tone when posting from that name:

jim_hones10
18 minutes ago
Posts: 3244
Member since: Jan 2010
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this thread is a perfect example of why streeteasy now sucks

poster a: "im smarter than you because i bought when i did and statistics will bear this out, here is my proof"

poster b: "no, IM smarter because i rent. here is my proof"

you are BOTH stupid for engaging in this meaningless drivel with complete strangers.

have some people done very well buying and selling real estate in the last handful of years? sure.

have some done very poorly buying and seeling in the same period? sure.

So, let me see.
Assume you rent a 2 bedroom in Manhattan from 2006 to today for $3,500 a month for the past 7.5 years, your total out of pocket cost would be....$315,000!!!

YOU ARE GOING TO TELL ME DISHING OUT 315K FOR THAT 2 BEDROOM AFTER 7.5 YEARS WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IS A GOOD THING.

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR 'EFFING' MINE!!!

A rather amusing thread when C0C0 would pretend he isn't Jim Hores: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/20365

Prices rose in all 20 cities of the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index from a year ago, up 12.1 percent from April 2012, marking the biggest increase since March 2006. New home sales for May also rose at the fastest pace in five years, according to data from the Commerce Department. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s April home price index also showed that home values were up 0.7 percent nationwide.

Prices rose the most on a monthly basis in the history of the Case-Shiller index, David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. They were up 2.5 percent from March for the index’s composite of 20 major metropolitan areas.

Home prices have been skyrocketing for more than a year because of high demand from buyers and a shortage of homes on the market.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/home-prices-new-home-sales-show-big-increases/2013/06/25/812f61c2-dd9b-11e2-948c-d644453cf169_story.html

Mortgage rates may be inching up, but they have not put a damper on the American housing market rebound, according to figures released Tuesday that showed upward momentum in both prices and sales.

"poster a: "im smarter than you because i bought when i did and statistics will bear this out, here is my proof"

poster b: "no, IM smarter because i rent. here is my proof"

you are BOTH stupid for engaging in this meaningless drivel with complete stranger"

Jim is 1000% correct. Steve has a reputation for being very condescending as well as manipulating figures to prove his dumb point. This is why I would never engage in a discussion with him again because in his mind he's always right and to prove that he will regurgitate the same crap over and over again, What's amusing is he always has to be the last one to post. It's kind of funny but you'll see what I mean.

Are there really people crazy or dumb enough to pay rent for 7-10 years in Manhattan?

"YOU ARE GOING TO TELL ME DISHING OUT 315K FOR THAT 2 BEDROOM AFTER 7.5 YEARS WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IS A GOOD THING."

Well, if you dished out 700K for an identical 2-bedroom after 2 years that's not worth what you paid for it, then yes it is.

"Steve has a reputation for being very condescending as well as manipulating figures to prove his dumb point."

Why thank you, renter! I posted where I got my figures for what I said (Miller Samuel). I can also post where I got the transaction costs, if you want, and where I got the inflation figures.

I didn't make any of it up.

Just because you're licking your wounds over your ridiculous thoughts about gold and QE, that's not my fault. I posted where I got the information from.

"after 2 years" = "after 7.5 years"

Oops!

hey ericho..long time. Market strength is amazing. Everything comparable to my properties is being bought up at the highest prices I've ever seen. With inventory so low and demand so strong hard to argue that price increases will not continue. Prob mirror the late 90s. I think the perfect storm is building for the next 3 years or so. Enjoy the ride fellow bull.

Steve, your points are spot on, and well-illuminated with data and facts, all of which verifiable.

The anecdotal horseshlt from our friends with "a pair" is predictably laughable.

Gold.....woopsy. That would be a painful dream to have chased!

spunky's back, still trying to unload his properties!

Im glad I bought

Me too ... pistachio walls as far as the eye can see.

Steve always would exclude rental cost and price appreciation in his analysis. The people here who were yelling rent over buy 4-5 years ago look so foolish now most don't even bother showing up anymore.

Well I bought two property in 2011 and this year i just sold one ( multiple offers above ask - all cash within 30 days) I bought at 1,2m sold at 1.95m ( real numbers) In the two years I had net returns from rental ( less property tax and maintenance) of 3.5% min. The other property - similar units went up from 950k to 1.5m but the rental returns are good(around 5) so I am holding the unit. As in all investment - timing is crucial and my experience with stock is bad but I have had fairly decent returns from property.

greensdale

about 4 hours ago

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Member since: Sep 2012

stop ignoring this person

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Yup, confirmed. Jim_Hores is C0lumbiaC0unty. Identical posting style. C0C0, you slipped up this time and forgot to use your Jim Hores tone when posting from that name:

jim_hones10
18 minutes ago
Posts: 3244
Member since: Jan 2010
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this thread is a perfect example of why streeteasy now sucks

poster a: "im smarter than you because i bought when i did and statistics will bear this out, here is my proof"

poster b: "no, IM smarter because i rent. here is my proof"

you are BOTH stupid for engaging in this meaningless drivel with complete strangers.

have some people done very well buying and selling real estate in the last handful of years? sure.

have some done very poorly buying and seeling in the same period? sure.

your entire life is engaging in banal drivel with strangers on a real estate forum. you are the definition of a loser.

Hi C0C0!

luvbrooklyn, were your properties in brooklyn? were they houses or apartments?

It's unbelievable that these morons who missed the greatest most obvious buying opportunity that they will ever see in their lives are still trying to convince us (or is it themselves) that they are correct. Keep renting fools you are again a priced out forever permanent underclass.

Love,

your Landlord

i think theres no question if you bought i the past few years your in great shape...at this point even right now is in great shape...no one knows whats coming but right now with interest rates "historically low" and people wanting to buy i just think its natural things will go up///either way ive always felt renting is sinking money to an invisible dumpster... i bought and closed last month and got a 3.375 rate so my feeling is in a worst case scenario if after fees i break even in 5 years that means i saved 150,000 at the current rent i was last paying...If you can afford the down payment right now i dont think its a question what makes more sense...however to each there own. Congrats to everyone who did buy as i dont think anyone is going to have any regrets with the interest rates they got and the purchase in this market as at least for the foreseeable future prices are not coming down. All this is just my opinion.

"Steve, your points are spot on, and well-illuminated with data and facts, all of which verifiable."

Bottoms, good to see your infatuation with esteban is still strong after all these years.

"have some people done very well buying and selling real estate in the last handful of years? sure.
have some done very poorly buying and seeling in the same period? sure."

Insightful! But true. Still, exactly the kind of comments you tend to disparage.

All two bedroom apartments One of my properties is in Williamsburg , the other was in Clinton. I just brought another property last year (has gone up around 15% on paper) and committed to another last week. Key as in stock is to know how to pick as I have seen properties bought in 2010 that the owner had to offload at a lost (last week - I called to enquire as it was a great deal)even when his unit was priced lower than the sponsor on a higher floor! So we cannot look at listing and believed you have made money until someone buys from you, My sharing is that you need not just follow the flow but invest in property like stock to make money.

"Steve always would exclude rental cost and price appreciation in his analysis."

No I didn't. I clearly showed, from Miller Samuel, 0% price appreciation since 2006, seven years ago. Net loss of ~25% adjusted for inflation and transaction costs.

In terms of renting, in 2006 (amply proved) net out-of-pocket expenses for renting were 1/2 what they were for owners' carrying costs. So, if you spent $3,500 to rent a 2-bedroom back then, versus $7,000 to buy one, you had a net 50% loss on an operating-cost basis.

That said, that may not be the case today as prices have, overall, stagnated, and rents have risen. Though I'm not that in-touch with today's Manhattan market, it may be coming more into equilibrium than it was at the height of the boom.

"My sharing is that you need not just follow the flow but invest in property like stock to make money."

Investing in property is nothing like investing in stock. Stock is liquid with low transaction expenses and no operating expenses, among many other things. If you're investing in properties like you are in stock, you need to watch HGTV more often.

I wasn't on these boards in 2006. To be fair Steve, you were taking your rent over buy position in 2009 and 2010. That was a bad call. Nothing personal about, you just made a wrong call.

"To be fair Steve, you were taking your rent over buy position in 2009 and 2010. That was a bad call."

No, it was right in 2009 and 2010, and I can tell you because I was both in the rental and purchase market, and the prices did not make sense. Rents fell precipitously in 2009 and 2010; prices did not.

It may not be right now, however, as prices have stagnated and rents have increased. A long-term buy decision now - or in the next couple of years - might be the right move.

So Steve you are saying that your long term position was right for a short period of time but not over the long term???

prices 'did not fall in 2009/2010' and prices 'stagnated' where? in manhattan?

Rents in Manhattan have increases significantly since 2009, according to MNS and Elliman data (and all anecdotal information out there), and according to Miller Samuel average Manhattan condo and coop prices are up since 2009.

"So Steve you are saying that your long term position was right for a short period of time but not over the long term???"

I'm saying what I've always said: rent should equal owners' carrying costs, or about 15x annual rent. That scenario was well out of line in the early 2000's, but since then nominal prices have remained about the same, have been eroded by inflation, & rents have risen.

UD, the figures I use are the average price per square foot in Manhattan below 96th Street. I have always said that different buildings, blocks, and neighborhoods will experience different ups and downs, I'm just discussing the market as a whole using the most objective data out there: price per square foot.

If you have better data let me know, & I'll take a look. But that's what MS says.

steve's call on LIC in 2008 and 2009 is also way off. Condo prices (ppsf) in LIC are up 25-30% since then, and rental prices are up significantly too.

I made no call on LIC prices, LIC. Other than to my grandmother's and other relatives' houses decades ago, I've only been to LIC once since about 1975. I have no doubt that prices are up there, more a function of new development replacing factories and warehouses than anything else.

Steve the good news is that DOMA was just overturned!

Why does everyone persist in arguing against one person who is an extremist and won't budge on their position irrespective of empirical facts? There are about ten threads exactly like this.

>Doing comp analysis from 3-4 years ago. Man if you bought then you have made a fortune. Talk about a score. Well I remember when the world was ending and the 2nd great depression was imminent. So those who had the pair to step up and buy in all that bear frenzy desrve to make their money. <

We bought a condo in fall 2009. I'm still kicking myself for missing the even bigger dip in Feb 2009. But happy, overall.

Comps in our building are going for $250K over what we paid. Our price was $750 a square foot in an excellent location.

I watched the market closely for 4 years. Watched it go up and then down, down, down. Noticed a very slight rise in spring 2009 and decided it was time to buy.

As for having "the pair", my husband would find that a bit disconcerting . . .

I remember saying that it was a great time to buy and I also remember that Somewhereelse screamed at me saying that I was an idiot and that prices were going down another 50%.

oh no, too many issues there. First off, dont ever analyze ppsf trends for coops. either the sft is incomplete because the broker didnt want to estimate or the broker did estimate and likely overinflated, which makes it a poor dataset to track. Condos are ok, as for the most part the marketed size is usually correct as its clearly stated in offering plan. Doesnt mean there are not errors, but much less of them.

Second, its quite clear that in manhattan every building is its own little marketplace. You can see two fulls ervice condo buildings right next to each other, in same school zone, same vintage, yet one trades in the 1100's per sft and the other trades in the 1400s per sft. My issue is aggregating all condo trades per sft into 1 bucket and then just trying to determine market "price action" from those #s. It just will be very misleading and not jive with what is actually happening in the field. Chances are your using median ppsf trends, but even if your averaging those out, they will still be exposed to the flaws of what kinds of property close and when.

In my opinion, if you are looking for broad manhattan price action over time, the SE repeat condo index is the least flawed tool to use for that purpose. It is by far the closest thing to what I see is going on in the field. The UD system will show us real time inventory trends, not price action. So my system tells me when deal vol falls off a cliff in real time or when supply suddenly spikes/plummets, etc. Or if its more a function of demand or a function of listings seasonally being removed from the marketplace. That info is good quantification for pricing and bidding strategy tweaking, but doesnt tell us price action.

The main flaws with the SE index are:

-- renovations, hard to accurately price this into the index for repeat sales to break down the % chg between sales as a function of mkt movement, or reno
-- based on sale date, not csgn date. So the index today really reflects a marketplace back in time 3-4 months or so.
-- works best in stable markets, what i mean is, it will not accurately time the cliffdive we had in late 2008 or the bottom fear trades we had in early 2009 (the UD real time deal vol/pending sales system does show us this). So the index will be exposed to slight distortions when Manhattan did its crazy falloff, bottom, and rebound off lows. I believe the index puts the bottom for Manhattan in Dec 2009 - Jan 2010..In reality, it was Feb-March 2009 and those that signed deals then that hit the bottom and have seen the highest % chg in repeat sales since.

Manhattan is a fast paced, hyperlocal and highly segmented type of market. Some buildings greatly outperform the broader trend and some buildings clearly under-perform, for whatever reason. Therefore, specific unit analysis should be kept in-bldg using relevant, same line comps. Aggregated data is too flawed to give us applicable interpretations on pure mkt movement. Use the SE index knowing what I mention above, and that its a few months behind the market, but rightfully so.

Manhattan's market has been operating long enough at a level above 15x annual rent, closer to 18-22x annual rent

oops accidentally hit post button. That ending should be: Manhattan's market has been operating long enough at a level above 15x annual rent, closer to 18-22x annual rent, that investors expecting that kind of pure math valuation are going to notice real quick that sales continue to happen at a higher level. We can only say for so long "yea, but the market is wrong". Its been trading this way for too long, so that figure needs to be adjusted I believe for Manhattan. Im not saying manhattan is immune, would never say that, only that we have had these discussions on rent multiples many times in years past and I always argued the same point -- those multiples need to be raised as the market continues to operate at a higher level than 15x annual rent.

Someone paying 3.5k a month for a smallish 850sft JR4 is in no way finding and buying that same apt for 630k.

steve, you expressed very strong negative opinions about buying in LIC in 2008/2009, and you were way off. The next time you are in NYC you should visit the waterfront area in Hunters Point. You will be shocked at how incredibly nice it is and how active it is, compared to what it was decades ago.

but USD devalue so much, engineered by those vrooks

We can only say for so long "yea, but the market is wrong". Its been trading this way for too long, so that figure needs to be adjusted I believe for Manhattan.-----well said

Why does everyone persist in arguing against one person who is an extremist and won't budge on their position irrespective of empirical facts? There are about ten threads exactly like this-----very well said

waiting for somewhereelse to rear her ugly head.

You know it's coming. She'll reprint certain parts of your post and then throw it into the biggest spin job ever. She's burrowing her way to the surface right now.

"you expressed very strong negative opinions about buying in LIC in 2008/2009"

I haven't changed my opinion about Long Island City, LIC - I merely said that I had said nothing about the prices there.

UD, while all of your points are valid, if the same flaws are inherent in all of the surveys, then the conclusion will likely be the same. And all the data point to the same thing. PS the figures I was using was aggregate co-op / condo, for all size apartments.

I do not think the SE index is exposed to the flaw of what types of properties close and when, as we try to come up with a interpretation for price action over time. The following price stats are: median $, avg $, median ppsf, avg ppsf, etc.

As the index only looks at repeat condo unit sales over time.

That is why the line chart of the index more closely jives with what I think the market has done over time, mainly the last 7 years or so. Median/Avg/PPSF will be all over the map - some qtrs will show huge bumps followed by other qtrs that are low; mainly due to lack of larger apts closing in that time period.

"PS the figures I was using was aggregate co-op / condo, for all size apartments." -- got it. Yes, I think that is why I am disagreeing then.

steve now come on you need to be the last one to post here don't let anyone beat you out.

steve was so wrong about the market he moved to Florida, doesn't that say it all? All the same old bull, 15x (at one time claimed 12x), LIC is a dump and poor investment, renting cheaper than buying, etc, etc, etc. blah, blah, blah

Steve is and has always been wrong and everyone on this board knows it.

SWE just has an agenda and will stop at nothing to promote it, not a shred of credibility.

Urbandigs does this for a living without agenda, has built and analyzed tools to make the market more transparent, and is with clients all the time. This is who you should pay attention to when looking for the truth or making a real estate decision in Manhattan. Pretty simple really.

Juice..agreed. I visit UD every day for market movement charts.

"steve was so wrong about the market he moved to Florida, doesn't that say it all?"

Um, Juicy, what does moving to FL have to do with it?

Nothing. It was a personal decision based on a lot of factors, & I'm very glad I made it.

UD, there is not that much of a difference between SE's index and Miller Samuel:

"Manhattan Condo Market Index for February 2013 rose by 0.2% since the previous month and by 4.8% since the prior year. Currently, the market is 8.6% below the 2008 peak"

"Median closing prices for the Manhattan overall market declined by 2.5% compared to year ago. Condo resale price rose 3.8% from the prior year while co-op median price decreased by 5.6%. New development median price increased by 27.9%."

I didn't make any figures up; merely quoted Miller Samuel, which is broadly in line with StreetEasy.

Sorry, Juicy: "Currently, the market is 8.6% below the 2008 peak"

-9% in prices -15% in transaction costs -6% inflation since 2008 = -30% since 2008.

That is from StreetEasy, 1Q2013:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/market/reports

Yes, the government and the Fed essentially rewrote many economic and financial fundamentals to bailout institutions and investors that committed all sorts of fraud during the bubble and some here claim to be great "investors" in a market that has been anything but conventional.

The only real argument for investing in NYC RE is that just about every gov't worldwide is printing money and the US has no qualms allowing corrupt and stolen money to be laundered via real estate (a la London) and that supply is presently low.

Real incomes aren't going up and these policies are driving blind yield-demand driven speculation thanks to the Fed adding $3 TRILLION + to its balance sheet. The problem is that this isn't sustainable.

Gloat all you want but suggesting that people should put down a significant amount of their life savings into an illiquid asset in the middle of rather wacky economic experimentation by world central banks isn't good advice. It is self-serving drivel that is trying to push people to make a risky financial decision - just so you can benefit. Thanks for that tip!

Given that few if any discuss these factors (which have been the real drivers of RE in NYC and DC) makes me believe that most don't understand the macro picture we are experiencing. If they did, buying the 2009 dip in NYC RE was one of the last things you should have done with your money in May 2009 as many other investments FAR out performed RE.

bravo memito

"-9% in prices -15% in transaction costs -6% inflation since 2008 = -30% since 2008"

So here is a real life example from a 2007 purchase

+40% in price (based on same line recent sale comp), -10% transaction costs (if you include 6% on the sale), +30% on average rents (in the same building)

As usual, steve uses a blended number for price, an overinflated transaction cost number, and an irrelevant inflation number without talking about movement in rents.

Stick to FL steve. NYC real estate is very complicated for you.

"Urbandigs does this for a living without agenda, has built and analyzed tools to make the market more transparent, and is with clients all the time.."

+1
Love the site and content.

Re: Stick to FL steve. NYC real estate is very complicated for you.

And absent the 85 BILLION (A MONTH!) the Fed has been and continues to inject into the banking system, aka wholly artificial support of the real estate market, where would you knukleheads be? A yeah, your brilliant investor minds saw that coming. bwahahahahah

QE1 was announced on November 25th 2008.

So, yes 'some' of us here saw this coming. Don't make me dig them up.

"So here is a real life example from a 2007 purchase"

Yup. Which is why Miller Samuel and Streeteasy show nothing of the kind.

Unquestionably there will be cases of specific buildings or specific apartments or specific blocks that vary from the average, and perhaps significantly, but they don't make a market, Juicy.

And Streeteasy and Miller Samuel all say the same thing about the market.

Unless you can show that they don't.

Here is what I used for transaction costs:

Real estate commission = 6%
Mortgage tax / flip tax = 2%
Transfer tax = 2%
Mansion tax = 1%
Other (lawyer, points, fees, etc.) = 2%

Which obviously excludes income tax on gains made, taxed as regular income in NY.

I 'absolutely' LOVE hearing these folks blame the government for them 'missing' the boat in 2009.

Oh, one thing to consider is the whole "foreigners" aspect of the market, given the collapse of emerging markets. That pool of potential buyers - if they ever existed - is greatly reduced.

Re: I 'absolutely' LOVE hearing these folks blame the government for them 'missing' the boat in 2009.

I 'absolutely' love hearing folks confuse a government bailout with their own investing prowess.

(and ericho I bought in 2000 -- which makes me real smart super genius investor!)

All this chatter about LIC, when it is likely the most under-performing sub-market in the city.

And the LIC cheerleaders, as always, speak of their incredible profits--but cant provide any sensible comps that illustrate.

So it goes............(kv)

steve, your numbers don't add up to 15%

I 'absolutely' love hearing folks confuse a government bailout with their own investing prowess.

West34 How does the government bailout have anything to do with RE prices in Manhattan rising?

JM: what were the transaction costs attendant to your purchase? what will they be when you sell?

Re: West34 How does the government bailout have anything to do with RE prices in Manhattan rising?

that's a joke, right?

clearly luck is a huge part of any successful investment, but to anticipate a highly accommodative fed and, in connection, that financial instrument (especially stocks) will significantly outperform real estate asset classes would be all about investing prowess.

just want to make sure you're not confusing the Federal reserve with the government.

i think i may be confused. pls explain.

"your numbers don't add up to 15%"

13%. My bad, but same difference, Juicy.

As I said, I don't doubt what you say for individual buildings, or even for individual apartments. Just like the stock market could fall but VZ might rise - it happens all the time.

But - as a whole - the market is down from the peak, flat from 2006, down in real terms and very far down taking transaction costs into account. That is, by all accounts, what is keeping inventory low.

yikes - renter is a Fed conspiracy Gold is Good theorist. Better not to engage.

juice, steve has some form of aspergers where he always has to get the last word in. Unless you want to go back and forth with him forever it's best to just ignore him.

renter, me & Juicy go back YEARS, long before you ever showed up in this incarnation of whoever you are. He knows my opinions and where I get my facts from - Reliable Sources. He knows that I considered buying a dumb decision from 2008 onwards, though now, given rising rents and stagnant prices and the lowest mortgage rates in history, I'm not sure that buying would be so dumb.

That doesn't change the fact that his anecdotal example, while quite probably true, doesn't hold up for the market as a whole. If it did, then all prices would be up 40% since 2007, which they're plainly not.

"and ericho I bought in 2000 -- which makes me real smart super genius investor!"

But not smart enough to sell in 2007 and buy back in 2009.

Government has always been in the economic/investment/real estate picture. Nothing's changed.
You're just all sour grap'n to me.

Re: But not smart enough to sell in 2007 and buy back in 2009.

Ericho -- newsflash - it's my home not a friggin' mutual fund.

"renter, me & Juicy go back YEARS"

Yes we do, over 5 years. Where has the time gone?

"I get my facts from - Reliable Sources"

That may be true, it's the interpretation of those "facts" that sometimes gets you into trouble.

"now, given rising rents and stagnant prices and the lowest mortgage rates in history, I'm not sure that buying would be so dumb."

Interesting.

Don't know where time's gone, JMan: the Juicelet must be in college already!

I think my interpretation of the facts has been pretty good - and where I've been wrong, I've said so.

You've also known that for a while I've been saying that the Manhattan market is closer to equilibrium than before, but still has a ways to go.

" the Manhattan market is closer to equilibrium than before, but still has a ways to go."

Tons of room to the UPSIDE.
Manhattan isn't even in the top 5 globally in regards to pricing on a square foot basis.

"Ericho -- newsflash - it's my home not a friggin' mutual fund. "

blah blah blah.
You were one of the knuckleheads defending the BEARS here in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to NOT buy.

Hypocrite.

Oh I was a bear then Ericho and I'm still a proud bear. I just find it hysterical that you're still crowing about some day trader paper profits you may or may not have made on a LIC place where 99% of NYers don't want to live.

This is really quite hysterical! A bubble gets reinflated too quickly, with no sensible fundamentals behind it, closer than ever to popping (instead of merely deflating a little) ... and epooro75 thinks that's a GOOD, bullish thing!

It's just like my favorite-named board game, Don't Tip The Waiter! http://amzn.com/B0019O30LM

Although epooro75 also reminds me of http://amzn.com/B000Y922NA

the chinese, indian and russian oligarchs will soon see that studios in LIC are gold!
Look at the $psf value compared to Paris, Hong Kong, London, Moscow!

They'll be lined up to buy erichoooooooooo's studio. He's gonna be rich!

ericho, you were going to provide some comps---should be easy enough, given your claim of huge profits on the studio you snatched. bring em!

Yikes,
Post LIC comps?
You don't even have 10 dollar to buy an account with Streeteasy to check for yourself? WTF!
It's all over these boards and streeteasy.

No wonder 'majority' of the bears here are 'grayed' OUT!!!

'bottoms, I too doubt the veracity of these LIC comps, but let's be honest, even if they did exist, you'd disappear in no time.

Manhattan rents per square foot, unadjusted for inflation, are flat - FLAT with q42006/1Q2007

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/manhattan-quarterly-rental-price-indicators

Price to rent ratio is still well above long term average:

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/manhattan-rental-to-sales-price-ratio-median-annualized-infl-adj

Data point:

I bought my condo in 2010. The lady who sold it to me bought in 2006. It is a 2 bed in a 2000's era high rise lux bldg.

I paid 90% of what she paid.

Discounting for floor the price a unit just closed 3 weeks on the market at the offer. I am up 26% since mid 2010.

That is real. The market is up a little from the peak that the lady paid ahead of me and 26% from what I paid for 2 beds in lux hi-rise in my neighborhood.

I still think it is expensive relative to rents or past history and if my condo goes up more, I'm selling and moving with my wife to Brussels.

Good luck.

Is Brussels a relative value discussion?

Re: I'm selling and moving with my wife to Brussels.

fried stuff, beer and waffles, yum.

Do people think the increasing interest rates will cause a reduction in home prices?

bjw- you question that LIC condo prices are up since 2008-2009?

the entire nyc market is up since 2008-09--LIC and the UES are the two most under-performing submarkets.

as usual with erichooooo, all anecdotal flatulence, combined with posturing about his "pair".

no comps. for someone with so much expertise re LIC, whose biggest asset is his studio apt there, it's somewhat shocking he cant produce comps that illustrate his wild claims.

budda--where's the data?

You want comp?
Here you go.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-view-at-east-coast

All recent closings ABOVE the 2008 price closings. I know, it sucks to be you renting all these years.

"cant produce comps that illustrate his wild claims."

whateverssss.....

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/property/1090209-the-view-at-east-coast-301
sold at 995K on October 2010
sold at 1.190 million on October 2012 (20% gain)
Listed now at 1.275!

I know, it sucks to be "YIKES".

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/property/1161299-10-50-jackson-12b

Here's another that was purchased and close BEFORE the bottom fell out in Spring 2009.
Sold at 868K on Jan 2009
Sold at 985K on Jun 2013

Oh jezz ericho! That's 2 2-3 bedroom comps in 2 different buildings showing price appreciation.

DON'T STOP THERE!

How bout 5SL's recent closing:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/property/1160919-5th-street-lofts-5sl-509-48th-avenue-3c
sold at 760K on July 2008 (HOUSING PEAK)
sold at 865K on June 2013 (14% above the housing bubble peak)