Real Estate Market Predictions for 2015

I think you have to accept that you can't market time. I passed up some things a year ago that I'm kicking myself for as they appreciated by 20%. That said the stock market appreciated by more. They seem to go in tandem.

That said in the last month or so I've seen some over-aggressive pricing and apartments that a year ago sold at first open house have equivalents that don't. There is still a shortage of inventory.

Keep looking and increase your IQ - when it is time to buy it will either seem like the thing to do or not. Manhattan real estate never makes sense.

However rents in older established areas such as the UES are actually down about 3% and with so many investors maybe that's worth something

Regals advice seems spot on. Really depends on what you are looking for as well, as the market is very different for the type of unit you might look for. But what would you be looking at eventually?

a lot can happen over the course of 12 months..just saying. Not sure anyone can be confident in any idea of where asset classes might be that far out. As for Manhattan being down via Fox news, down from what? price action is down? that is not true. I can see median sales trends being down year over year, but price action is certainly higher from a year ago -- SE condo index is good for gauging price action, not deal volume or median price trends. Buy when it works for you and your confident in both the market and your personal situation, just use caution making a buy decision based on someones opinion of where the market might be in 12 months. As riegel says, follow the market and increase your product knowledge until its the right time. Who knows what event might come & when over the next 365 days and trigger credit to blow out, equities to change course, and buyers to lose confidence. As of now fear is non-existent in the manhattan marketplace. Nobody knows if/when that might change

Noah:

It seems to me that real estate markets in desirable NYC neighborhoods
are now poised for a sharp beginning of the year price spike, perhaps
in the 10-20% range

Not sure due to lagging nature of sales data. The peak of 2013 was in the April, May, June period. That was when deal vol was greatest and in my opinion the frenzy was most widespread. I think those sales closed and were recorded in Q3 and Q4 reports. I would think Q1 naturally dips a bit as the slow period of Oct-Dec populates that future report..but who knows. It seems as of now price action is still very strong, just not sure if it will pop as much as u mention.

Noah:

1. what strikes me is that today's market is characterized by many of the
same features which characterized the 2013 market at this time:

A. low and shrunken carry-over inventory
B. sharp asking price increases from the prior September-December period
C. reports of 75-100% short-term price increases, i.e., SE's current 15 W 11th thread
D. strong investor demand
E. a perceived need to "buy now or be priced out forever" (cant remember where I heard that phrase)
F. strong overseas interest in owning prime NYC real estate

2. today's frothy news climate is also more favorable for sharp short-term prices, with
its optimistic projections for real estate (Barron's last week +13& over three years),
and the stock and job markets and overall economy

3. you are correct that a transcendant event could stop the market on a dime

4. but that is always true,and always has been

Happy New Year and best wishes for it

I guess at least the one bedroom segment will retain strength?!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/realestate/a-scarcity-of-new-one-bedrooms.html

>1. what strikes me is that today's market is characterized by many of the
same features which characterized the 2013 market at this time:

You deserve the credit for calling the market's move, even if you called it stochastic.

RB, Welcome back. Your prediction of a large increase has certainly been true for many properties in desirable areas like village.

And thank goodness. 300 seriously stretched that he was up all night every concerned about what would happen if the market went the other way.

So we're projecting 2015 even though 2014 is barely under-way? Interesting.

Personally I think the real estate market , especially in Manhattan has gotten ahead of itself. If there's a surprise in store, I would think it would mean a pullback in prices. The market right now is totally driven by foreign money, at least in the new construction condo market.

Also Fed has begun pulling back on Q.E. A Fed tightening could derail the sail winds of real estate. My guess is the market 12 months out is flat to down a little.

Weakening demand by financial companies that have been snapping up thousands of US homes on the cheap could fuel a future fall in house prices, the chief economist of Fannie Mae has warned

Today's FT

You guys assume there will still be significant price increases across all neighborhoods or more in the hot areas?

Riversider:

1. the single family vulture home market does not materially
influence NYC prices because its business model is based
upon buying foreclosures in depressed but rising markets

2. the stock market's swoon might energize price escalation
in the near term because it will probably lead to capital
flight into real estate, and because it will encourage
some owners to refrain from selling theur apts because real
estate appears to be a stable and rising asset while stocks
appear risky and increasingly so