Lets's talk about oil....

Happy holidays to everyone! Another year of NYC real estate almost under our belts. 2014? Started hot and heavy though certainly less so than 2014. The current quarter has shown some softening for sure (after a 5+ year run, it's time). This is not just my anecdotal experience, Noah at Urbandigs charts show a significant decline in contracts 8/14 v. 8/15 (have not peaked at others yet, maybe Noah... [more]

Happy holidays to everyone! Another year of NYC real estate almost under our belts. 2014? Started hot and heavy though certainly less so than 2014. The current quarter has shown some softening for sure (after a 5+ year run, it's time). This is not just my anecdotal experience, Noah at Urbandigs charts show a significant decline in contracts 8/14 v. 8/15 (have not peaked at others yet, maybe Noah can chime in?) My take; traditional seasonality and some good old fashioned market slowdown. Does it last into 2016? I think it does, to what extent I have no idea. Oil and energy companies are looking like banks did in 2008; lot's of selling. Is this a 'once in a lifetime opportunity' to get long? Seems big players are still shorting oil big time. Has to reverse sometime, no? I'm thinking maybe time for uso or usl? Contango risk make these unattarctive? Just mixing things up here as we waltz into a new year? Keith Burkhardt tbg [less]