SPX 2180 vs Manhattan Real Estate (SE condo index)

Two years for financial markets is essentially impossible to predict. However, 10 yrs out, I don't expect SPX to make much movement:

http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php

http://www.gurufocus.com/buffett_assets_allocations.php

http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

I will be happy if it compounds at 2-4% from now over the next 5-10 yrs. After interest, I expect it to essentially break-even or gain 1-2% in real terms.

In 2 yrs, I could see SPX being anywhere from 1200-2800 lol (if you want a 90% confidence interval)! Sounds crazy but a market crash of 40% would still leave the SPX healthily valued.

Bonds tend to mimic their actual rates so expecting to see about 3% growth over next decade. If rates go up, this will affect the scenario in the short-term, but in the long-term, I don't see any way out of deleveraging so even if we get a couple of rate hikes, I don't think the economy or markets will withstand it.

On a per square foot basis, I think we could see a 10% decline in the next two years in the $2-$5m market, greater than 20% decline in $5m+ market, and 5% down under $2m. I'm talking about closed sales and using $/sqft medians. 90% confidence interval, I could see market going up 10% or down 20%. Also, I am discussing Manhattan below 96th st. Have not paid enough attention to other markets to have any clue. For real estate, I am using trends on Urban Digs to get me to these numbers as well as historical data on prior real estate markets.

What do you forecast?

1. I think SPX is likely end up within a 100 point range in 2 years (say 2100-2300). Naturally, it is hard to predict a precise date and level. Events like further slow down in China can take it down 20% or more but it is hard to predict events.
2. For real estate, I like to think in $ per sq ft. $2500+ sq ft will be flattish to down 10% driven by New Development resales and reduction in dirty money flow to NYC real estate.
3. Average condo market flat to small up (5%) over the next 2 years.
4. Coops will continue to chug along at 3% growth per year as people realize that monthly maintenance in coops relative to condo maintenance and taxes is a good deal.