Is living in NY going to get worse?

Get out

I think it is going to be a challenge in the future.

I'm inclined to agree with DCO that the city will face major challenges in the next year or so, but I think problems will be marginal. It feels like we are in for a rough 18 months, but we're so strong at the core that I think the average person (ie, people who do not read StreetEasy) will barely notice.

As a transplant from another city, I've always been amazed at the resiliency of NYC, particularly Manhattan after 9-11, but I've also been amazed at the the clutter and dirt people tolerate. Particularly the subway: I mean, can't such a rich city have climate controlled, clean and secure subway stations that don't have so many "because of an earlier incident" incidents...? Nothing fancy, just something decent 20th Century plain.

hsw it isnt just the Wall Street downturn hitting the state and city budgets. The disasterous tax policies of the Bush administration significantly decreased the amount of federal funds supplied to NY city and State.

You can thank that $300 tax rebate for the decrease in funds NY has to fund services like schools, police, tranportation, etc

petrfitz, you got a $300 tax rebate?

There is no difference between a tax rebate and lowering tax rates.

While the feds have some responsibility for what's happening in NYC, the real problem lies in Albany and right here in NYC. Albany doling out benefits to unions that can never be rescinded (without bargaining), exorbitant pay for teachers, Medicaid benefits that far exceed any private plan, including podiatry, public housing that should be sold off and run as self-sufficient co-ops.

And yes, I said teachers are overpaid. Top salary $120,000, they work 9 months of the year (maybe), and have unrivaled benefit plans including health care and a defined-benefit retirement plan after 20 years worth about $2 million per teacher.

We run Medicaid like a jobs plan, which is why half the state and budgets are used for it.

Since they merged the regional transportation lines into the MTA, they're still run separately with no structural changes.

I could go on, but before we accuse the feds of anything, let's look at how we run our own ship: it's not pretty.

Steve the Log Cabin Republican.

While I feel there's going to be a few years of financial hardship for NYC gov't and residents, 2008-2010, I don't see street crime returning to the really scary levels of 1981-1982 (the last of the really "gritty" years). Having lived in Manhattan since the 80's, I can tell you vast swathes of the city used to be dark at night. Broadway below 14th street and Union Square was a no-go zone unless you were a junkie or hooker. Washnigton Square Park was anarchy now. 24/7, 7 days a week. Tompinks Square was a squatters camp. My girlfriend would call me from the pay phone on 7th ave so I could walk her to my apt on 22nd street. That NYC is never coming back.

What we will get is reduced services from the MTA, public schools, waste management and the parks dept. And there will be a lot of angry, bitter people who feel they missed on the the great real estate bull market that ended several years ago. Expect a lot more pushing and shoving on the subway, nasty looks and general irritableness. But, anarchy, chaos? No. Even if the police went on strike the Feds would send troops in like after 9/11. Things won't be pretty for a little bit but they won't be ugly either.

80's Man - there could be an interesting migration happening that could actually stave off a bit of the gloom for NYC.

There is a migration from suburbia back to the cities. Believe it or not the costs of heating/cooling, healthcare and gas are making suburban life much less affordable. There may be an incremental migration to NYC that staves off a substantial decrease in tax revenues and may give the city some cash.

I also feel that Wall Street firms will start to recover and hire in the next 12 months. I think that the rest of hte state is srewed but the city may fair well.

"Steve the Log Cabin Republican."

Absolutely not. The Mike Bloomberg Democrat.

I can't believe it, but I agree with steve. New York State's problems come from Albany and Shelly Silver's crowd, not DC. Unfortunately, NYC is tied to the State legislature for far too many things, particularly in the budget.

LICC you are obviously a Republican and it is expected that you would put the blame anywhere else besides that people who have actually been presiding over this mess.

petr, you obviously are a far-left (near socialist) and want to blame the Bush administration for every possible thing you can. You probably are one of the democrats that wished we would lose and fail in Iraq so that more democrats can get elected. The gains and progress made in Iraq in the past year (even acknowledged by Obama who is changing his prior opinion regarding a quick withdrawal) are probably eating at you.

Anyway, back to real estate. From the Observer:

New York was the only city outside of the southern United States to make the Census Bureau's annual estimate of the nation's top 10 fastest-growing cities. New York ranked sixth amid a top 10 speckled with familiar Sun Belt names like Phoenix, Atlanta, and (somewhat surprisingly) New Orleans.

New York also continued to be the nation's most populous city, gaining an estimated 23,960 people between July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2007, bringing the city's population to 8,274,527 million--more than twice the population of the next biggest city, Los Angeles, and roughly three times the population of Chicago, the nation's third-largest. From 2000 to 2007, New York added about 265,000 residents, more than any other U.S. city.

I guess none of these new arrivals will want to buy any homes. This won't affect demand at all . . .

LIC - I am a Civilian Board member of the Armed Services appointed by Bush himself.

I believe that I have a good understanding of what is actually happening in Iraq unlike you.

I also put forth apersonal effort into the cause. How about you?

Why, petrfitz, can a Democrat not favor fiscal responsibility without being called a Republican? I don't support the bridge-to-nowhere, nor do I support agricultural subsidies, I do support free trade, and I believe in the Kudlow Creed without being a supply-sider.

In fact, I even found myself agreeing with Pat Buchanan this morning on Obama: he talks up individual responsibility instead of state benefits, "we need more money for this, more money for that."

No we don't. We need to look at what we're doing and, where feasible, restructure it to work better. The NYC police department proved it can be done: crime is lower than ever before, and there are fewer police officers than there used to be. It can be done in schools - when I was in Catholic school there were 50 kids in the class, and you better damned learn what you're supposed to learn, because the consequences were painful.

It's all in the attitude. In my family there was never a conversation about whether we were going to college. It wasn't debated. For New York to improve we have to change how we think about things. By restructuring you could cut taxes in half, and everything would be the same. Just look at how many school districts there are on Long Island. I think you need 2: Nassau and Suffolk.

New York was the only city outside of the southern United States to make the Census Bureau's annual estimate of the nation's top 10 fastest-growing cities. New York ranked sixth amid a top 10 speckled with familiar Sun Belt names like Phoenix, Atlanta, and (somewhat surprisingly) New Orleans.

New York also continued to be the nation's most populous city, gaining an estimated 23,960 people between July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2007, bringing the city's population to 8,274,527 million--more than twice the population of the next biggest city, Los Angeles, and roughly three times the population of Chicago, the nation's third-largest. From 2000 to 2007, New York added about 265,000 residents, more than any other U.S. city.

"Why, petrfitz, can a Democrat not favor fiscal responsibility without being called a Republican? I don't support the bridge-to-nowhere, nor do I support agricultural subsidies, I do support free trade, and I believe in the Kudlow Creed without being a supply-sider."

Which means you are a Libertarian and that politically, you are screwed because you have little representation in Washington.

"when I was in Catholic school there were 50 kids in the class, and you better damned learn what you're supposed to learn, because the consequences were painful."

I went to Catholic school, it taught me not to be Catholic.

Steve - Republicans are not the party of fiscal responsibility. The last President to balance the budget and bring about a surplus was a Democrat.

The last 8 years of Republican Administration brought in the era of complete fiscal irresponsibility, huge deficits, pork barrel spending, unfunded initiatives, war funding off the books etc etc etc

petrfitz, my only question to you is...can you explain why the Democratic congress has a 9% approval rating? And please don't tell me it's Bush's fault. Or that the Rasmussen poll is secretly run by Republicans.

Because of the obstructionist Republican minority:

The 49-member Senate Republican minority has done something no Senate minority in American history has ever done: they’ve filibustered more bills than any Congress ever has — and they broke the record with a full year to spare.

The latest came this morning, when the Senate GOP filibustered an omnibus budget bill, the 62nd Republican filibuster since the 110th Congress began in January.

“In just one session, a minority in Congress has prevented a mind-blowing 62 pieces of legislation from going to the floor for an up or down vote,” said Campaign for America’s Future co-director Roger Hickey. “Our report shows how over and over again, the uncompromising minority has thwarted the will of majorities in Congress and of the American people, holding the Senate floor hostage to a radical right-wing agenda.” […]

Eric Lotke, Campaign for America’s Future research director and lead author of the new report, calls the obstruction a “deliberate strategy.” He observes that the congressional Republicans block legislation, then blame the Democrats for getting nothing done. “It’s like mugging the postman and then complaining that the mail isn’t delivered on time.”

Brian Young, noting the historic quality of the achievement, added, “Only a group with a near-pathological disregard for the actual health of our democracy, only a group with a single-minded focus on the cynical political strategies of their consultants, only a group with an imperious disdain for the people of the country could’ve pulled off such a feat.”

Quite right. This was a record that wasn’t meant to be broken. The “Roadblock Republican” label is not meant as a compliment.

Back in April, Trent Lott conceded publicly, “The strategy of being obstructionist can work or fail … and so far it’s working for us.”

Bill Scher reminds us that it may be working for the GOP, but it’s failing for everyone else.

What have conservatives obstructed this year? Here’s just a partial list:

– Ending the disastrous occupation of Iraq.
– Providing health insurance to millions more kids.
– Empowering Medicare to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices.
– Taking away handouts to Big Oil so we can invest in renewable energy.
– Repealing the effective ban on embryonic stem cell research.
– Investing more in health research.
– Making it easier for workers to join unions.
– Investing more in fighting poverty and training workers.

Is obstructing all of that popular legislation “working” for Republicans?

If Congress’ approval rating is any indication, the answer is no.

But it’s the speed with which the Republicans broke the record that really amazes me. The previous record took two years to accomplish; these guys broke the record in half the time. That’s like breaking the single-season home-run record before the All-Star break.

And by the way, just for good measure, let’s answer the trivia question. When was the previous record set? That would be the 107th Congress — the last time Republicans were in the minority.

was that a copy and paste from DKos?? I appreciate the response nonetheless.

"The last President to balance the budget and bring about a surplus was a Democrat."

and how exactly did that occur? Let's be honest now, did Clinton do this or the economic stars align at the right time? Lot's of reasons for a surplus at that time and little had to do with Clinton's policies.

Sizzlack - please supply any data to the contrary from any source.

Juiceman - seems like you are on the RNC line - nothing good that happened uner Clinton was due to him, everything bad that happend was a direct result of his policies, and conversely nothing bad that happened under Bush was his fault and anything good (if you can think of something) that happened under Bush was directly a result of his policies.

Petrfitz, according to the same poll only 13% of Dems think Congress is doing a good job. I'm not saying anything you said is untrue, it just never ceases to amaze me that in your mind everything that ills this country is due to these evil evil republicans, while the innocent pure and decent Democrats are just the victims of those very evil evil Republicans. Perhaps both parties are to blame? Or is that just not possible...

both parties are disgusting...plain and simple.

i think that there are people in both parties that work against the betterment of the American People.

Its very clear from the past 8 years that the Republicans have done a lot more intentional damage to the American people than the previous Democratic administration.

yes but the Republicans have been much more disgusting than the Dems recently and under the 1st Bush, and Reagan.

"nothing bad that happened under Bush was his fault"

Petrfitz, there are at least 100 million people in this country that would disagree with that statement

i agree with you 100 percent.

Since when was Street Easy purchased by Moveon.org? I'm sorry, but I did not get the memo.

alpine please provide any data to the contrary.

The city is not going to get worse. NYC will never turn into another Newark or Detroit.

And as far as crime being up, that likely has to do with the low NYPD salaries. The top pay is $65,000, while the top pay is $100,000 + on Long Island and in New Jersey.

"...And yes, I said teachers are overpaid..."

Truly spoken like a man with no children.

Teachers are most assuredly NOT overpaid.

When I entrust my child to a person who will basically oversee a significant part of their development for approximately 36 weeks annually, approximately six hours a day (or about 1000 hours per year) in a public school, and that teacher has (let's say on average) 25 kids in an average class, that works out to (at most) $120,000 annual pay (at most)/25 kids on average = $4,800 per child for the entire school year. $4,800 annually per student/1000 hours in the school year = $4.80 per hour per student pay.

For the job teachers do (and that doesn't include all the extra time spent in the late afternoons and evenings reviewing work and planning for the next day, or any summer continuing ed, or anything else for that matter), the abuse that some teachers are exposed to, and the fact that good teachers can have an incredibly meaningful effect on a child's development, I say not only are they worth every penny of that $120,000 annually plus benefits and pension (in a best case scenario), but WAY, WAY more. $4.80 per hour per pupil (maximum!) plus health care and other benefits is absolute chicken feed for the job and effect a good teacher can have in the life of a young human being. Fourteen year old babysitters make more on an hourly basis per kid in the midwest. And we're talking about potentially major direct educational and psychological input into a child's life at a significant level here.

Trust me steve, if you don't have children, you would be best to discuss only factual issues like nybits.com

Clinton did one good thing - welfare reform. Otherwise, he didn't do much at all. Maybe that also was good, government couldn't screw things up if it isn't doing anything. He also weakened national security and let Bin Laden go when we had him dead to rights. He let our enemies hit us again and again with no adequate response, which emboldened them. He also left office in the middle of a recession that the Bush tax cuts helped us get out of. The current administration's, and the several recent Congress', biggest domestic failures have been the inability to control spending, and the inability to implement an intelligent energy policy. Reagan brought this country back from the abyss using the principles of this country's success - individual responsibility and freedom. petr, didn't the Democrats obstruct everything by filibusters when they were the minority? What about the judicial nominations? Social Security reform? Increased domestic oil drilling? Stop being a political hack and trying to blame Republicans for everything. If you want big government socialism, go move to Europe.

Malraux - i agree 100% that teachers should be compensated at levels much higher than they are!

80sMan how can you be so sure that NYC won't return to the state of the early 80s? Stagflation is potentially on the way. It seems all we need is a new drug epidemic to create a perfect storm.

"can't believe it, but I agree with steve. New York State's problems come from Albany and Shelly Silver's crowd, not DC. Unfortunately, NYC is tied to the State legislature for far too many things, particularly in the budget."

I am in favor of separating NYC from NY state.

hsw - in the 80s you had a migration from the cities to the suburbs. You also had urban decay which is not present now.

Its different. The trend is now for people to leave the suburbs and come to the cities - the costs of feul is driving them to the cities and New York is in great shape infrastruture and housing wise.

petrfitz: "Its very clear from the past 8 years that the Republicans have done a lot more intentional damage to the American people than the previous Democratic administration."

"intentional damage" is precisely correct, vis a vis the "starve the beast" scorched-America strategy that right-wing ideologues have implemented.

petrfitz, it seems to me that the a large portion of people migrating to NYC are 5-10 years away from helping the economy. Most are young and aimless. Perhaps in a few years when they stop playing "High School forever" we can get this economy moving again. Then you've got the "get money" crew, they work in real estate/mortgage. That ride is over. So, a lot of sad faces for a few years.

The good news is that tons of formerly bleak industrial/slum neighborhoods have been converted to middle or high end residential. So while there will be some urban decay, it's won't fall as far as it did in the 70's/80's. I don't think drug dealers will be working Bryant park anytime soon.

"Which means you are a Libertarian and that politically, you are screwed because you have little representation in Washington."

You are arguing that I should change my views to align them more with people who are in power. It should work the other way around.

"I went to Catholic school, it taught me not to be Catholic."

Me, too.

"For the job teachers do (and that doesn't include all the extra time spent in the late afternoons and evenings reviewing work and planning for the next day, or any summer continuing ed, or anything else for that matter), the abuse that some teachers are exposed to,"

Substitute any other profession for "teacher."

"and the fact that good teachers can have an incredibly meaningful effect on a child's development, I say not only are they worth every penny of that $120,000 annually plus benefits and pension (in a best case scenario), but WAY, WAY more."

And the bad ones?

I happen to know lots about the subject - there is no job accountability, it's written into their contract. They get "tenure" - aka unfireable - for showing up. Why do they need tenure, when its purpose is to protect university professors from political retaliation for doing research. So far as I know kindergarten teachers don't do a lot of research or publishing.

"And we're talking about potentially major direct educational and psychological input into a child's life at a significant level here."

And there are as many bad teachers locked into tenured positions that you can't get rid of. If you want to pay them performance bonuses, I'm all for that. But paying a gym teacher the same as a math teach is ridiculous.

I happen to know lots of public school teachers and administrators. They have PLENTY of free time on their hands. They teach the same subject year after year. There is no planning for that.

80sman - i think that you are wrong. Its not post college kids moving into the city.

Whos moving to and staying in the city? Families with kids and median incomes of over $280K per year.

80s - did you just pull that demographic out of thin air? How do you know the type of people migrating to NYC?

Teachers do have a great deal, between pay and benefits. I'm not saying they do or don't deserve (as steve implies, I'm sure that some do and some don't), but in general they do have it good.

"The trend is now for people to leave the suburbs and come to the cities - the costs of feul is driving them to the cities and New York is in great shape infrastruture and housing wise."

I certainly agree that if trends continue (oil going up, increase in "green" etc) that we will continue to see an increase push towards urban living. But, I think New York is one of the few cities in the country in which you can take mass transit easily to the suburbs.

Purchase power and total cost of ownership certainly account for something as well. I don't think you are going to see people trading in family size houses in Bergen Co or Westchester Co for 2 bedroom condos in Manhattan unless they simply do not need a space that big (empty nesters). I don't disagree with what you are saying (rather I agree with it) but there are many limiting factors and I don't think it is as cut-and-dry as you make it out to be.

The Fed - its not aonly a matter of gas costs. Do you know how much it now costs to heat and cool one of those "family Sized Houses" in suburbia? Last year a home cost about $300-400 per month to heat and cool. This year that same house costs about $1000 - 1200 per mont to heat and cool. Add thoe costs to increased gasoline costs, increased local taxes, increased food costs. There are a lot of people who cant afford those homes anymore and have to move to the city.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/24/business/exurbs.php

petrfitz, starter families move to Brooklyn. Growing families move out of NYC altogether. It's too expensive. $280K does not support a family in Manhattan.

who is living and moving to NYC

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/28/census-new-york-region-has-widest-income-gap/

I agree TheFed. Unlike other metro areas, like Los Angeles, the NYC area has an excellent mass transit system connecting Manhattan to Long Island, upstate, northern New Jersey, and Connecticut. So if gas prices go up, people will downsize their cars (not so much their houses) or they will keep the car home and take the train or bus. In contrast, areas like LA and Phoenix might see their suburban hosuing markets collapse because trains and buses there are virtually unheard of. If you can't drive, then you are stranded.

And lets not forget that a good portion of young families living in the suburbs in blue ribbon school districts will not send their kids to school in the city unless hell freezes over.

80sman - read this post http://www.brownstoner.com/forum/archives/2008/07/leaving_brookly.php

people arent leaving - they are coming back to Brooklyn - its cheaper now - taxes, transportation, and the schools are better

LICComment, I specifically used the phrase "it seems to me" to make sure everyone understand this is simply my opinion.

alpine - the schools are much better in the city these days than in suburbia - both public and private. Where have you been?

You mean Stuvyestant, Bronx Science, and Brooklyn Tech? Yes, those are good schools, especially since they are very selective. In suburbia, the schools don't have metal detectors.

I don't forsee families with kids giving up their McMansions in Greenwich and Upper Saddle River and trading them in for 2 bedroom apartments anytime soon. Maybe they will once their kids go off to college and they have 4 empty bedrooms they don't know what to do with.

"Last year a home cost about $300-400 per month to heat and cool. This year that same house costs about $1000 - 1200 per mont to heat and cool. Add thoe costs to increased gasoline costs, increased local taxes, increased food costs."

While heating oil and natural gas have gone up a lot, they haven't quadrupled in the past year. But that is really splitting hairs. You still have to pay for HVAC in the city don't you? Landlords in the city have been crying the tears of infinite sadness about how their heating bills have gone up. Sure if you trade your old drafty farmhouse in for something smaller and more efficient you are going to save money. But you really need to be comparing apples to apples. Yes, city taxes are lower. But then you have to contend with the city income tax. Schools? Well a lot of the best public schools in the country are in the burbs, or you could factor in sending them to private school. This isn't Dallas, people do have transportation options other than the car.

I wasn't talking about the exurbs. You can't compare Pike County, PA with Scarsdale.

In the city, higher fuel costs will translate into higher electric bills and higher maintenacne fees, so your not going to dodge these costs unless you have a house with solar panels on the roof, or your renting in the Helena.

alpine, if you live in a condo or co-op building, economies of scale will result in your not being effected by higher gas and electric costs nearly as much as someone living in a detached one-family home. Not even close.

$120,000 annually plus benefits and pension and holidays/vacation and 2-3 months off paid for by you and me, not shareholders....to even fathom that this is underpaid is compromising anyone's credibility who thinks this...

If you think this is underpaid, get ready for the next 2-3 years when city/state/federal budget cuts are enacted...the damage that has been to the revenues of the government is crushing/drastic and will only start showing up in the budgeting processes now....a raise for gov't workers? it will be all hands on deck just to try and keep jobs around....im not happy about it, but its the way it is...corporate, sales and property taxes are all down sharply and it will only get worse with layoffs, consumer spedning cut and housing spiraling downward...do the math to see what comes next...

Paying $1800/month (just an average figure) in CC/Taxes is, $21,600/year. That's way more then taxes and utilities for the average single family home in the TRI-state area. To say that living in a condo or co-op cheaper to maintain is just nonsense.

dco, you really are off the wall. What world are you living in? How much do you think yearly taxes are for a good house in the suburbs? Common charges also include the labor that upkeeps the building. How much to single-family homeowners pay for landscaping, repairs, etc. Why do you insist on coming up with wacky arguments to knock NYC real estate all the time?

"$120,000 annually plus benefits and pension and holidays/vacation and 2-3 months off paid for by you and me, not shareholders....to even fathom that this is underpaid is compromising anyone's credibility who thinks this..."

Would you care to show me how NYPD cops make this much when the max salary is $65,000?

petrfitz- "There is a migration from suburbia back to the cities."

You got it.

"Believe it or not the costs of heating/cooling, healthcare and gas are making suburban life much less affordable."

I've stated that before and was laughed at because "everyone knows the cost of private schools is so much worse."

"There may be an incremental migration to NYC that staves off a substantial decrease in tax revenues and may give the city some cash."

The city/suburbs relationship was opposite 30 years ago -- anyone who could moved to the suburbs. There has not been an obvious linear process, because of course there are always young families who move out to homes from Manhattan apartments, but look at the overall picture in the 5 boros -- what used to be "bad" neighborhoods are now "hip." Just when you think there's noplace left to fix up, another rundown area gets fixed up.

"I also feel that Wall Street firms will start to recover and hire in the next 12 months."

I wouldn't be surprised. Right now all anyone can see is the bad news. That may well be a sign that the bottom is reached or is very near. And when those firms start rehiring, people don't start screaming "Hey, look! Wall Street is booming again!" It's another delayed-effect phenomenon. No one realize it has happened until it's old hat.

A single person has a bargain if s/he pays Manhattan rent -- no car, no upkeep, lower property taxes. A family can make it work if they don't need a yard and huge indoor spaces. There are some decent public schools in the 5 boros, and there are parochial schools. Private schools are outrageous, and difficult to get into, but I wouldn't be surprised if that cost starts to look different as suburbia gets more difficult.

DCO - the taxes on a 3800 sq ft Brownstone in a prime Brooklyn nabe with a great school is about $3-5K per year. The taxes on a same sized house in NJ in a good school district is $50K per year.

Alpine - you could also point to NEST as a prime example of a new charter school that has become one of the nations top schools. Also many of the Manhattan and Brooklyn public schools have become much more compeitive and now offer better eductions that most suburban public schools.

Alpine - in regards to your higher fuel costs in the city. It doesnt translate as directly as it does in suburbia. First off you are benefint from economies of scale - buildings buy in bulk and get discounts a homeowner doesnt get.

You also use far less electric and heat in a multi unit building. I live in a 2500 sq ft apartment and my electric is about $200 per month. In the suburbs it would be $500-700 per month for the same size.

Also heating is included in common charges and units benefit from the heating and cooling of the units above and below. you dont get that in surburia.

petrfitz- Your out of your mind if you think that the average Taxes in the burbs is $50,000. Most people are paying about $10,000 and living in very good school district. Oh, by the way, has anyone else noticed that everyone tells you they live in the best school district. Just find it funny. Actually I think that the costs (relating to maintenance) for a single family home and a condo or co-op are probably about the same. Some more, some less.

$50,000 a year in taxes on a 3800 square foot house? Are you out of your mind? My house is 4,000 square feet and the taxes are just under $14,000!

"Oh, by the way, has anyone else noticed that everyone tells you they live in the best school district. Just find it funny."

You will have to exclude me from that statement since I Live in one of the worst school districts in the area.

dco - here are links

Montclair, NJ house for $2.4 million yearly taxes $76K

http://www.burgdorff.com/Property/propertydetails.aspx?SearchID=544154&PropertyID=128456056&RowNum=1

Boerun Hill Brownstone listing for $2.45 million yearly taxes $4K

http://corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&ListingID=1013834

alpine you are paying triple what a person who owns a $2.45 million brooklyn brownstone pays in taxes. Oh yeah the public schools there are great.

$10,000/yr in taxes in a nice house in a top area with a good school district in the suburbs is very low. Alpine lives in a bad school district and pays $14,000.

nothing like real data to shut people up

"Would you care to show me how NYPD cops make this much when the max salary is $65,000?"

This was about teachers if you followed the thread above...

Taxes are more than $10,000 in good school districts... at least $12,000 a year.

perfitz,

how could you possibly compare that HUGE mansion in Montclair with a townhouse in Brooklyn? They are apples and oranges.

"nothing like real data to shut people up"

Well, when you cherry pick your data those things happen. You are comparing a house in montlclair that is about 8k square feet with a townhouse in boring hill that isn't even half that size.

Here's a townhouse that is closer in size (8100sq ft) to the house. Taxes for the 08/09 year are a cool ~$80k

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/226848-townhouse-58-e-66th-st-lenox-hill-manhattan

The Fed and Alpine you are both morons. PRICE POINT both cost $2.4 million.

TheFed you are comparing a $18 million house to a $2.4 million house and you say that is fair?

C'mon. Losers.

"I also feel that Wall Street firms will start to recover and hire in the next 12 months."

"I wouldn't be surprised. Right now all anyone can see is the bad news. That may well be a sign that the bottom is reached or is very near. And when those firms start rehiring, people don't start screaming "Hey, look! Wall Street is booming again!" It's another delayed-effect phenomenon. No one realize it has happened until it's old hat."

Guys - Its a bloodbath on Wall Street and not a simple retenchment...whole product / business lines have been decimated...and they are not coming back and there is nothing in sight that will spark these places to hire...tack on new regulations that is to surely come and it will restrict the firms even more to build out businesses...we are looking at a multi-year contraction in jobs on Wall Street as this mess sorts out (i hate to say cause we all have friends who will have to watch out)...lastly, the compensation packages will look very different in the future which who knows how that will impact

Most $2.4 million houses in NJ do not pay $76,000 a year in taxes. That is an EXTREME example due to the oversized lot.

"PRICE POINT both cost $2.4 million.

TheFed you are comparing a $18 million house to a $2.4 million house and you say that is fair?"

Never said it was. You were comparing two properties of vastly different size (both land and size of the improvements). What does price have to do with it? This isn't Florida where property taxes are assessed based on the last recording sale price for the property. You can choose to distort facts to "prove" your point, but don't act like a hypocrite when other people cherry pick their data to "prove" their point.

Not to mention that 99% of $2.4 million houses don't have indoor swimming pools. I am sure that pool adds a ton to the taxes. Maybe if you let the tax assessor use it on weekends, he will give you a discount. LOL

Like most things on this site, this has moved onto a ridiculous discussion. I do take some of the blame. Sorry.

Lets also not forget that corporate bankruptcies in NYC - per Crains - have TRIPLED this year.

Its not just Wall Street that is getting hit... I wonder how many small business owners are going to get pushed out as well...

"I also feel that Wall Street firms will start to recover and hire in the next 12 months."

Even the fed has said we're going to see paid through 2009, and Wall Street has double double-screw in that we're going to see a couple years of legislation aimed at "curbing their excesses". Plus a lot of their money making activities simply won't come back. M&A could bounce back, but mortgage stuff will never be the business it was.

Add it all together, I think Wall Street and NYC have YEARS to go. We started after the rest of the country, which means we'll finish way after...

What have conservatives obstructed this year? Here%u2019s just a partial list:

- Ending the disastrous occupation of Iraq.
30 million Iraqis freed from tyranny, Hussein (Saddam I mean) and his sons dead, 2/3 of the country under Iraqi military control, US casualties in the last 2 weeks down to 2, tens of thousands of Al Qaeda terrorists eliminated... give me more of this disaster.
- Providing health insurance to millions more kids.
Many of whom have parents who send them to private school and own multiple homes and could easily afford health insurance.
- Empowering Medicare to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices.
How do you empower someone to negotiate? are they deaf mutes? You mean impose price controls, thanks that worked well for Nixon.
- Taking away handouts to Big Oil so we can invest in renewable energy.
Useless expensive environmentally idiotic things like wind farms and millions of miles of solar panels? DRILL IN ANWR, build nuclear power plants that democrats have opposed for decades.
- Repealing the effective ban on embryonic stem cell research.
Denying federal funding for torturing human embryos, does not prevent private funding - hey you just said the drug companies have too much money because they charge such "high prices", don't you think they could fund some embryo torture if they thought it would work?
- Investing more in health research.
see above
- Making it easier for workers to join unions.
I have no idea what this means. Provide a limo service to the union meetings?
- Investing more in fighting poverty and training workers.
i.e raising taxes and throwing the money away, been there, done that...

Best President of the 21st Century, George W. Bush. And a decent man as well.

hey Brodie - it was horrible when Democrats filibustered but good when Republicans do it and do it more frequently?

Partisan moron.

petrfitz...this is a real estate blog, not a Obama for President blog...

Wow, did I call it or what....

> Even the fed has said we're going to see paid through 2009, and Wall Street has double double-screw
> in that we're going to see a couple years of legislation aimed at "curbing their excesses".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080710/bs_nm/usa_economy_regulation_dc_4;_ylt=AiNjj02qMxxaecDSBxUwN_UE1vAI

Translation... Wall Street has a good 3-5 years before it can even think of openly stealing like it did the past few years...

Real world example:

4800 sq ft house -- 7200 if you include the walk-out basement -- in Monmouth County. Easy commute to Wall St. by ferry, or Penn St. by train. Six bedrooms, five baths. An acre of land with a swimming pool, hot tub, etc.. Public schools among the highest rated in NJ. Property taxes were just over $20k/yr.. Mom, Dad, two kids (ages 8 and 6) and a nanny.

Sold the house a year ago. Got rid of the nanny. Sold the [4] cars. Moved to 1800 sq ft (2/2) in Malraux's neighborhood. Sending the kids to public school. Couldn't be happier. Wish we 'd done it years ago.

And I know two other families (from our NJ nabe) that have done the same.

And the teachers union sucks. And teachers are grossly underpaid. DFER has the right ideas.

garelj - "Its a bloodbath on Wall Street and not a simple retenchment." Yes, I appreciate that. Every so often there's a debacle of one sort of another -- the implosion of Drexel and the end of junkbond fever and the end of a period of M&R frenzy -- the periodic stock market crashes -- now this one -- I'm not disputing anything you say, but I feel jaded and keep remembering articles after each debacle in which people always say the same thing (paraphrasing) "every so often there's another debacle, each time in a different sector of finance, and each time people say that changes will fix this and it will not happen again -- then people forget it and it happens again -- then people say the same thing when there's another debacle -- then the same but this will fix it sentiments -- then another"

I don't mean to argue with anyone about how awful this is. I just have been much more "wait and see" about things. To give you another example -- in the year after 9/11/01 everyone I knew talked about how the whole country would band together and rebuild the greatest skryscraper known to man. I always said in response, "On 9/11/2011 there will still be a big hole in the ground at the old WTC. In these 10 years people could enjoy a nice park if they'd fill it in."

We have another three years and two months to go. I still see a big hole in the ground, don't you?

It is completely normal. Things have moved at lightning pace for New York City. Remember the Second Avenue Subway. It was old news when I first came to this area in 1976. Real New Yorkers would roll their eyes and say, "Oh, yeah, building the Second Avenue Subway.... sure, kid!"

Those people were not cynical, and I am not cynical about Ground Zero's reconstruction, and I am not doubting how bad the financial services industry is. I would just soften the edges off the superlatives. This too will pass. The mortgage-backed paper and derivatives thereof have self-destructed. The world's banking system as we know it has not. Peace.

The thing a lot of folks miss is that this one is going to be a double whammy of a recession/crash/etc.

2001 was technically a recession, but it was not the true correction the market cycle needed. When the dotcom bubble popped, it was partially offset by the beginning of the RE bubble fueled by low interest rates. While we had the stock market movements and high profile losses and tech job falloff, we didn't see most of the really bad stuff that normally accompanies recessions - including SEVERE government (particularly local) cutbacks, international implications, etc. We've ALREADY had a city go bankrupt in California, and thats just the first.

The big point here is that we might be seeing the effect of TWO recessions really hitting at once, the subprime crisis, and the delayed full correction from 2001. We never really got the real aftershock last time... that might mean its going to be exponentially worse this time.

"2001 was technically a recession, but it was not the true correction the market cycle needed. When the dotcom bubble popped, it was partially offset by the beginning of the RE bubble fueled by low interest rates."

Exactly.

You can thank the Fed for that. How many times do we need to re-iterate that recessions are absolutely normal and an essential part of the business cycle? It cleans out market inefficiencies, usually caused by greed and speculative activity so that we can move back on track to expansion.

It's like taking a dump- you have to clear out. Keep bottling it in, it doesn't go away... it just builds and builds until PeptoBismol time. We've got a LOT bottled up.

EddieWilson & MMafia - I agree - lowering interest rates to nothing in 2001/2002 was a big mistake. "Oh, we simply MUST avoid a recession at all costs!" So we got lots of funny money flooding the system instead.

lowery, after 9/11, lowering rates wasn't that bad of an idea. The major problems came because of lax standards of the lending industry and poor regulatory and risk management of the securitization process. If buyers weren't out there buying up all this subprime-backed debt assuming it to be investment grade, with the lenders having no skin in the game once the loan was packaged, the excess liquidity wouldn't have been there.

Spilt Milk. Now we need to find a way to clean it up. Because this may prove to be the worst financial crisis this country has ever seen. Not to mention it's a world problem. This is going to take years. It's only a matter of time before you see developers and developments going under in this city. New Construction projects are at great risk of failure. Keep you eye on new development projects being changed over to rentals. The next step will be to scale back the size of projects and then abandonment. The banks will just cut the funding because they can't meet pre-construction sale goals. It's ugly people. Hang in there it will get better in a few years ( at least 5 years ).

The police presence in the city is pretty strong. That should keep the rabble in check, for now. Yesterday I saw undercover cops ticketing fare beaters at two different subway entrances. I know they're doing this for revenue since they raised the fare-beating fine to $100 (I suspect there are additional court fees as well) but still, it's not like the 70's/80's when we called the underground passageway between 6th ave and 7th ave on 14th street "the murder tunnel".

dco, please educate yourself with some economic and financial history before you make such crazy statements. Try reading about something called "The Great Depression." Free market economies go through cycles, bubbles, and deflating bubbles. You are just in over your head from an economic understanding point of view. Yes, this could be a rough cycle with economic difficulties ahead, but is it "the worst financial crisis this country has ever seen"? Please . . .

LICComment- Thanks for the advise. I know you are all knowing. So let me ask you a question. How is heating oil this winter going to effect the consumer. You think filling you gas tank hurts, just wait until you fill you heating tank. It's going to cost about $1200/month to heat a modest house this year. And lets not forget this is not just going to effect single family homes. CC's at co-ops and condos are going soar. It's not just the financial LICC. it's a much bigger picture. You just have a difficult time seeing past your own arrogance.

> Yes, this could be a rough cycle with economic difficulties ahead, but is it "the worst financial
> crisis this country has ever seen"?

No, just since the depression. If it were depression levels, you'd be talking about 80% declines in real estate, not the 20-30% (and occasionaly 50%) numbers being thrown about.

But, I have to tell you, if all the RE bulls can come up with is "this is only the **second** worst financial crists of all time", then all I can say is maybe the sky is actually falling...

Man, this think is hillarious. I think it deserves its own thread....

The city certainly has it's hidden expenses but the costs on a million dollar home in Westchester include around $20,000 in taxes, plus utilities, upkeep, lawn maintenance, a car (or two) plus fuel, plus train pass or passes if there are two commuters in the family. It adds up.

kgg- Now factor in $2,000/month to heat your house and the result is a dead consumer. Which translates into terrible earnings and then.....................

dco, you missed the point. kgg is pointing out how expensive it is to maintain a nice big home in the suburbs, which is why more people are staying in or moving to the cities.