One Manhattan Square

Certainly bad pictures. These one are better but the floor does not seem to be clean.
https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/rental/2701369?context%5Bcontroller%5D=%23%3CBuildingController%3A0x000055f3537b2220%3E&context%5Bcurrent_user%5D=1004028&hide_if_empty=true&section=rentals

I wonder how soundproof those windows are?

My best guess is noise will not be an issue as high noise has a lot of room to dissipate.

My best guess is noise will not be an issue as highway noise has a lot of room to dissipate.

Was checking how many apartments have closed on Property Shark and counted 36 closings and many of them still show up on Streeteasy in contract but not in recorded sale.

18A as an example closed for 2.306mm.

Unit 8B "Sun, Yi
Fu, Han" 3/4/2019 $1,404,094
Unit 8C "Xie, Henry X
Huang, Charlene Z" 3/5/2019 $1,295,397
Unit 8D "Ulahannan, Netha
Ulahannan, Mathew J" 4/1/2019 $2,315,428
Unit 8G "Karanam, Naren,
C/O Andrew L Sokol Esq" 3/7/2019 $1,073,163
Unit 8N "Yeo, Bernard Seow Bing,
C/O Yi Lin Esq" 3/20/2019 $1,239,586
Unit 8P "Sun, Celina
Wang, Yan
Sun, Faliang" 4/29/2019 $1,246,063
Unit 9D "Chen, Yao,
C/O Susan Ly Esq" 3/27/2019 $2,340,907
Unit 9N "Quan, Xuanmei
Yan, Wenji
Quan, Wenzhe" 3/29/2019 $1,419,368
Unit 9P Kim, Hyo Min 3/18/2019 $1,342,999
Unit 10D "Decastro, Rafique
Gunasekaran, Gayathri" 4/18/2019 $2,315,428
Unit 10G "Lu, Teng,
C/O Susan Ly Esq" 3/26/2019 $1,206,535
Unit 10J Ocean Diamond 10j LLC 4/24/2019 $1,221,422
Unit 10K One Manhattan Square 10k LLC 3/20/2019 $1,267,649
Unit 10P "Ye, Ling,
C/O Susan Ly Esq" 4/8/2019 $1,395,135
Unit 11J "Tian, Zhen,
C/O Brett Wexler Esq Wexler & Kaufman PLLC" 4/3/2019 $1,196,576
Unit 12G "Lu, Teng,
C/O Susan Ly Esq" 3/26/2019 $1,213,639
Unit 12N "Tsang, Paul,
C/O Bruce Cohen Esq Cohen & Frankel LLP" 3/29/2019 $1,250,338
Unit 15C Jay Natchelle LLC 3/28/2019 $1,282,821
Unit 15G "Choi, Kwangmin
Park, Yoon Jin" 3/27/2019 $1,154,623
Unit 18A Joshi, Komal, C/Omatthew B Lehrer Esq Gitter & Lehrer PLLC 4/15/2019 $2,306,259
Unit 18B Nguyen, Ha Linh Dan 3/5/2019 $1,530,357
Unit 18G "Xu, Yuting
Wen, Danny" 4/24/2019 $1,150,296
Unit 18J "So, Yat Ling
Tseng, Hsiang-Wei" 4/4/2019 $1,266,630
Unit 19F "Feng, Hongping,
C/O Yinghui He Esq" 4/8/2019 $1,215,718
Unit 20C Oak Tree Ventures, LLC 4/18/2019 $1,431,792
Unit 21G "Liu, Ran,
C/O Xiaoyue (Cynthia) Li Esq Mt Law LLC
Chen, Yulian,
C/O Xiaoyue (Cynthia) Li Esq Mt Law LLC" 4/24/2019 $1,231,716
Unit 21J Ruby M LLC 4/23/2019 $1,271,722
Unit 21N "New York 252-21 LLC,
C/O Yi Lin Esq" 4/30/2019 $1,293,095
Unit 23J "Guo, Chenjian
Fang, Liping" 5/3/2019 $1,321,596
Unit 24B Jun Property Group LLC 4/22/2019 $1,416,313
Unit 25J Yu, Jingmei, C/Omarisa (Yuanting) Yang Esq Dai & Associates 4/30/2019 $1,306,038
Unit 26G Strong Investments LLC 3/7/2019 $1,249,357
Unit 26N "Han, Yingxu,
C/O Yan Fu Esq Jun Wang & Associates" 5/2/2019 $1,530,714
Unit 34E Yusupova, Tatyana 4/22/2019 $1,360,565
Unit 38K "F. Home Nyc Corp,
C/O Cinotti LLP" 4/25/2019 $2,545,625

That's less than one per business day by my calculations - seems like an awfully slow pace for a building this size. For example 56 Leonard St (a building with less than 20% of the number of units and each transaction about 4 times as large - and while it's not proportional, larger dollar volume closings tend to take a little longer for whatever reason) closed 32 sales between 5/5/2016 and 7/5/2016.
At The Orion (a building with about 2/3 as many units) they closed 94 units between 4/10/2006 and 6/9/2006. At the Atelier (about 5/8 as many units) they closed 69 units over the exact same calendar period in 2007.

It's been over 2 years and 2 months since they announced the had inked their first hundred. Do we know how many more since then? I would think if it were a good number they would be announcing it.
PS does anyone know for sure how they are handling the huge CC rebate? I'm guessing that it's with a lump sum at closing, and that it's with a check rather than reducing the transfer price. So, if that is the case, are the lenders being looped in? Or are buyers really financing a higher percentage? (Looks like the rebate ends up about 3% of purchase price?)

Also, according to SE there are at least 18 rentals out of those closed already (and a very good chance SE doesn't have all rentals accounted for). Add whatever amount of the remainder which will be used for pied

A-terre or simply "banked."
Doesn't seem like there are many truly owner occupants.

Most important information in the closed units is that many still appear “under contract” in Streeteasy which means that Extel is trying to show more units in contract than there actually are. I suspect once the existing units in contract close, they will step up discounts as if they do that now, people in contract may walk away from their deposit.

Correction: on the 3 BR units it looks like 7.5% in rebate.

What are you thoughts on the current asking rents here? According to SE, looks like only one unit was truly rented out, and it was for $3,667 net effective rent. All of the other listings are asking for $4k +. Some of the current listings have been available for a few weeks now. Maybe $4k is a bit too high to stomach after considering the area it's in? Or are people just waiting for the building to be fully complete, with the amenities and all, before renting?

While nowhere near the quality of building/amenities, look what you get in that area in a perfectly decent building/renovation:
https://streeteasy.com/building/275-south-street-new_york?semAdgid=32799107055&semMaTy=b&semAdid=217767275269&semKwid=aud-297227069668:dsa-403798688598&k_clickid=_kenshoo_clickid_&gclid=CjwKCAjwq-TmBRBdEiwAaO1en20-WLot-hJ7-B-s_NT8IfpOyPYx10pzdZ_O7jK2jr-VHEsVMLcFfhoCo10QAvD_BwE

Wow.. relatively speaking, that's a huge premium at OMS just for the amenities, higher quality finishes and in-unit washer/dryer. Judging from the photos, 275 South Street looks pretty nice as well. I would totally live there if it were not for its location. It would be interesting to see how this plays out for OMS. Not sure how much higher the incentives can be besides cutting prices. I'm thinking Brooklyn Point is stealing a lot of the potential buyers from OMS due to its better location, proximity to transportation and more creative floorplans.

I know a few friends and friends of friends who live in Two Bridges. Majority of them view Two Bridges as a place to help them get by for the first few years out of college due to the lower rents. None of them want to stay there since it's out of the way from a lot of things they want to do. Also lots of complains about the East Broadway F train station there as well.

Has anyone else seen the OMS advertisement on TV? I can't remember the last time I saw a commercial for condos on television.

Wow, is this real? As per this article, out of 815 units, Extell has only sold 173 units till date!!
I am shocked they would release such information...

https://commercialobserver.com/2019/08/blackstone-to-lend-692m-to-extell-for-one-manhattan-square/?fbclid=IwAR1I5F2Fk491r9OQHxgnEIOOli8V5zF_xyY5SJs1Dy_-YJaYSfrswACDwi4

And 96 past+current rentals on SE. Obviously not all rentals show up on SE. Percentage of owner occupancy is minimal.

https://ny.curbed.com/2019/9/26/20884997/extell-one-manhattan-square-sales-lower-east-side

Only 20% sold apparently. Now they are trying "rent to buy."

Appx 30 percent now including the ones in contract

Rent to buy is positive for the market as it will reduce unsold inventory.

I suspect those "in contract" numbers are including units "rented to own" and if that's the case then I say those don't really count.

That does not seem to be the case. Is there an example listing for which you think “in contract” is suspect? Rental listings are separate. I think the in contract data is reasonably clean now.

252 South St gives a good opportunity to do a rent vs. buy comparison. I took 46G, for rent at $8077 no fee, vs. 47G for sale at $2.6M.

Assume 30% down so a $1.8M mortgage with a 10/1 ARM from Chase at the no-point rate they quoted me online = 7881/mo mortgage + 23 tax + 1467 commons + 100 for insurance, minor repairs, etc. I assume that 55% of the mortgage is interest and the rest principal. Total costs $9471/mo.

The mortgage gives a federal tax shield up to $750K and a state/city tax shield for the total interest. I assumed 30% Federal rate and 12% state/city rate. The total tax benefit is $1075/month, bringing total costs to around $8400/mo or $4877 net of repaying mortgage principal.

However, my downpayment $$ are tied up, so if I assume I could earn a 4% return on that cash, I need to charge myself $2587/mo for tying up that capital, or total costs of $7464. This is a critical variable - if you consider that you could put the down payment into a 20% hedge fund, your conclusion may be different.

Then there are transaction costs. Title $6700, recording fees $500, mansion tax $26000, mortgage tax $35000, and 8% of the sale price when I sell. I assume the sponsor pays their own damn transfer tax (will never fall for that one again). Amortized over 10 years, the transfer costs add $2291 to the monthly bill, bringing it to $9755, compared to renting at $8077.

There are several assumptions here. I assume the buyer pays asking price, there is no commission rebate, rent doesn't go up, there is no common charge abatement, common charges don't go up (and they usually do once the sponsor relinquishes control), no assessments, the tax abatement keeps taxes fixed, and the looming increase in property tax when going to sell doesn't cause any problems.

So the question is whether one is willing to pay $1700/month or $40K a year more for the privilege of owning - i.e. not suffering a rent increase and getting a capital gain (maybe). Simplistically, if you could sell for $400K more than you paid and assume no rent increases, then owning makes sense. If, however, you're like me and are bearish on prices for the short to medium term, then you get a 421g rent-stabilized apartment to wait it out... the rent may be too damn high, but at least it's stabilized.

Ha. If you assume cost of capital but no return on capital why torture yourself with doing the calculation. You would be an idiot to buy.

Also much easier to do the calculations with interest rate only and no one in Manhattan pays online quoted rates. You can get 2.6-2.7 10/1 ARM with interest only easily.

Separately, I do believe the prices here should be 20 percent lower. Some of that reduction is already there in form of common charge rebate.

Any if you are really going to torture yourself, why not assume a broker rebate when buying? I am not even taking about selling yourself.

4 percent post tax return with zero risk?

Selling cost with non-rebate broker, 5 percent plus appx 2 percent rather that 8 percent.

That guy Ken Griffin is so dumb!! He is sinking his money in 220 CPS rather than renting in the same building 2 years at a time. Some one should tell him that he is better off investing in his fund.

The common charge rebate ended a few months ago.
How do you account for listings like 30M which show as "in contract" but have no updates since 2017, and that update is not "in contract"? (If something has been in contract for >6 months and hasn't closed I'd bet it's not going to).
Or listings like 63D which say "sold" but are still listed as "in contract"?

In my calculations of 30 percent sold, I account for 63D which seems to be the only one which sold but still showing up in contract. Btw, did you see that they got 15 percent off from list?

300, I guess I touched a nerve there.

1. My model solves for required capital appreciation, not assumes it.

2. I'm not Ken Griffin. But yes, this is one of the problems with buying highly illiquid assets - there is an opportunity cost that one must assess.

3. If you find a realtor who works for 5% selling a 2m condo, let me know. My experience is no less than 5.5% and that's only if there's no buyer's broker.

4. On the mortgage rate, while it is possible to reduce the price with things like having a million bucks with their firm post-loan and maybe paying a point or two, your numbers are IO while my quote was fully amortizing.

5. A commission rebate when amortized over 10 years doesn't make much difference. A 2% rebate is 20 basis points a year... close to a rounding error.

No nerve touched but I do enjoy checking sanity of people’s assumption for real estate. It gives me insight into the reasons for their bullishness or bearishness. There was some one on these threads who was assuming they have to pay flip tax as buyer for a coop, who only imposes it on seller, which is the case with majority of the coops.
2. I/O are more expensive than amortizing by 10-20 bps.
3. Almost every broker will work for 5 percent in over $2mm category condo. Call Keith Burkhardt. He will do it for 3.75 percent with full service. But you have not bought yet nor are you going to buy in Manhattan or any other nice suburb with 4 percent down payment capital cost assumption.

"Btw, did you see that they got 15 percent off from list?"
Yes, as I'm sure everyone who is allegedly in contract did, and if they got less of a discount probably will be trying to renegotiate.

If I were to be in contract, I for sure would try to re-negotiate.

300,

A) What would you suggest as a more reasonable range for capital cost assumptions for George or others?
B) Is your answer to A more, equally, or less conservative than what you believe the average NYC broker would suggest to a potential buyer?

Capital cost and expected returns go hand in hand in an objective analysis. If you put capital cost based on some long historical returns, you need to put historical returns as well in buy vs rent. More objective buy vs rent is zero capital cost and zero return.

Otherwise, it just depends on the individual - how much “freedom premium” they are willing to pay, how much uninvested money you have, your forward return view of the asset you are going to sell to buy real estate, and of course your forward view on the returns of what you are buying. If you assume zero return on real estate and some capital cost say 4 percent, there is no need to do buy vs rent for Manhattan. Renting will always be better as cap rate in Manhattan is between 1.5 to 3 percent. Higher cap rate on less expensive basic renovation needing but still very livable coop apartments.

Geek alert: In a more complex portfolio analysis like Bridgewater may do, you would input capital cost / return target, portfolio volatility target, risk of each asset class (at the money as well tail risk), historical returns, correlations, your expected returns, and potentially liquidity related factors, before you optimize for portfolio allocation. You can’t take one part without the others. Correlations less than 1 level will suggest you diversify. With real estate you may get .5 correlation to equities.

There is an opportunity cost for all capital. Instead of having capital tied up in an illiquid real asset, I could have it invested in Treasurys or stocks or pork bellies. A 4% personal cost of capital seems extremely aggressive towards buying. Further, in running an analysis like this, I'm not always coming to a rent decision. With condos, I am always finding rent is better. With townhouses, it's more complicated and depends on rents vs. taxes and how overpriced the place is. I have found a few where the model says absolutely to buy but my valuation of the property says its 15-20% overpriced. And since my offers have been around what others are offering, I don't think I'm crazy.

Perhaps you should consider Hard Money lending.

George,

You are missing the point. It is perfectly fine to have an objective cost of capital (say based on historical returns adjusted for asset volatility) but not without historical return as expected return in buy vs rent.

For un-renovated but livable manhattan townhouses, if you are going to rent out part of it and not factor in your time for rental management, loss of privacy due to renters, vacancy, and capex expenses over time, you can make you calculations work 15% down from current prices. Otherwise you will keep renting if you strictly go by your calculator. When there is recession, the rents will come down and so will be the price you are willing to pay as your cost of capital will go up in addition to rents going down. There is nothing wrong in renting based on subjective inputs.

I guess the question is whether you want to pay your own mortgage, or pay someone else's. These units, and those at Brooklyn Point and other buildings with tax abatements, offer a great opportunity, in that you are not paying any property tax for a long time, only maintenance. One also has to take into account what these units will be worth 15-20 years from now, and what the rents will be at that time, which no one knows. I know there are a lot of models out there that advise on rent vs. buy, but there is something that you cannot put a price on with regard to owning your own unit, paying it off, and either renting it out, or living in it free and clear.

<$37,000 per year income to $44,000.
(And before telling me you'd get an adjustable mortgage, don't do analysis where your costs aren't fixed for your proposed holding period because then I get to talk about what happens when your rate resets).

<$37,000 per year income to $44,000.
(And before telling me you'd get an adjustable mortgage, don't do analysis where your costs aren't fixed for your proposed holding period because then I get to talk about what happens when your rate resets).

Of course that assumes you won't have any problem carrying the unit at potentially -$30k or more a year (non-tax deductible) for perhaps extended periods of time.

Example unit 51J
Sold $1,497,863
80% financing 30 yr fixed =$5,666 + CC/RET $900 plus whatever yields approx $79,000 expenses.
Rent less than $3,700 -vacancy -broker/leasing expenses yields <$37,000 per year income to $44,000.
(And before telling me you'd get an adjustable mortgage, don't do analysis where your costs aren't fixed for your proposed holding period because then I get to talk about what happens when your rate resets).

The idea of owning a home "free and clear" strikes me as a 1950s ideal pushed by the real estate industry to sell more of their products and services. Real estate is just another asset class and product to be consumed. And it has an extraordinary powerful lobby selling the idea that we should own it because they make more money that way.

Absent the extensive tax subsidies for being tied down to a particular home, why is it better to spend 30 years paying off a home than to rent and move to the home that best suits one's life at the time?

Why is it better to end up owning a $3m home "free and clear" instead of having $3m in a bank account?

Who cares if I pay someone else's mortgage? When a 2br costs $3m, maybe it's better that the landlord suffer the risk of people finally saying "this is nuts!".

Personally I expect that universal rent control will soon become real in NYC in part bc young people simply cannot afford to live. The reforms in June were just the start. They will swing the pendulum far back towards renting.

Owning in cities like NY has to be viewed as consumption rather than investing. We own because what we live in does not exist on the rental market for us. The higher premium one places on customizing their home and having a say in its management, the more one is willing to pay a premium for owning over renting. If you don’t value these two elements, then renting will remain the right call in cities like NY and SF for the indefinite future.

Buy vs rent certainly does not work for One Manhattan Square even if you include “Freedom / Ownership” premium” which is bigger the more you earn. Probably nothing if you make less than $200k in NYC as a couple or family. Perhaps 20-40 percent if you are worth $25mm or more.

Many people will not have the discipline to save unless they have a goal like paying off the mortgage. Some will not have the stomach for stock market volatility and will sell at the low. This is much more of a reason for people who make less money - say less than $200k in NYC and lower rent apartments are higher cap rates (smaller rentals are higher $ per sq ft after various adjustments).

Homeownership and wealth correlation. For what it is worth. Naturally, you have to be able to afford the payments rather than have a sub prime disaster.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/are-germans-poorer-than-italians-spaniards/a-16695404

I own my primary residence free and clear and it's a relatively small part of my total net worth, say 25%. I have about 50% in the stock market and 25% in a savings account (Marcus). I also have an investment property that pays for itself through a seasonal rental. Personally I've done very well with my real estate purchases and I very much enjoy owning my own home for various reasons.

I can say all of the clients I've assisted with purchasing a home have a well-balanced portfolio of cash, stocks and real estate. These are successful, well educated people who prefer to own rather than rent for many of the reasons 300 mentions. For many, whatever you want to call the rest of those outside of the big, expensive coastal cities, buying is certainly a no-brainer in my opinion. especially if you're going to be in the same place for 20 plus years raising a family.

And before you slam me as being a broker with an agenda, first you have to understand my business model. One, I don't advertise, we're 100% word of mouth. Clients call me up after they already have decided they want to buy. Two, we don't get involved with search for clients, they bring apartments to us they are interested in viewing and potentially bidding on. Three, we never try to sell anybody anything, we provide a detailed opinion about the property after one decides they'd like to bid on it. And we do that before asking them what they want to pay or what they think about the property. And of course we offer 100% transparency, meaning we share all communication with listing agents with our clients. And then we give them a sizeable rebate check. this model has worked well for both me and my clients over the last 11 years! There's some more to it as well, but I don't want to give it all away! We're also in no rush, I've been working with some clients for many years....

All that said, if you'd rather rent you should rent! Whatever is going to make you happier and perhaps makes better financial sense for your particular situation.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

Having a 3 million dollar apartment is completely different than having 3 million dollars in the bank. For one thing, you can rent it out for income, or you can live in it and not pay rent. If you have a 3 million dollar bank account, you are giving rent to someone else, and I am sure you are not getting a great yield on your savings account. Plus, your 3 million dollar bank account is only insured up to 250,000 by the FDIC so if the bank goes under, I guess that might be a problem.

Maybe NYC real estate doesn't make financial sense for you if you have to take 30 years to pay off a mortgage or can only put down 20% or even less. I get it. Maybe you never expect to pay off anything and live without a mortgage. That may also not make sense. But, there is no comparison between having a three million dollar apartment paid off and 3 million dollars in the bank!

$3m in the bank or in some other low-risk, liquid asset like muni bonds allows one to do whatever he wants with the money. You could even invest in a residential REIT if you really like housing. $3m tied up in a house limits you to... well, living there, being a landlord, vacating the property, or paying an 8% transaction fee to sell the property. The illiquidity and transaction costs of residential real estate are killers.

Oh, and owning housing comes with the obligation to pay property taxes of 2% or 3% of the market value every year. Along with maintenance fees and assessments if you're in a multifamily. You might have paid the mortgage, but you still have to pay the govt and the Board or you will get foreclosed.

@George: I love your posts. You remind me of one of my long-time friends who moved his family back to Dallas, Texas because it made financial sense to raise their kids their. He was surprised that I sided with his wife in their disconnect over buying in NY because he had always found me smart and sensible. Your points are all well-taken and respresent a mindset shared my many. Different strokes and all that, but I will leave you with this: "Happy wife, happy life!" My friend and his wife in Dallas are on the brink, and her biggest complaint is that with all the money they have (a significant portion of which comes from her), he was too cheap to buy an apartment in NY, where they had met and happily lived for 20 years before he insisted on moving them to a place where the spreadsheet made sense. Totally agree that it is hared to make the spreadsheet made sense in NY, but NY is a moveable feast.

Sounds like his wife made a mistake.

https://streeteasy.com/sale/1365844

https://streeteasy.com/closing/10722303

Sold at ask. I would have thought that the buyer negotiated 10-20% discount.

Data point: Full price purchasers appear to be married physicians in their early 40’s originally from India who have settled in NJ after prestigious US residency and fellowships.

Considering it was "Listed at $13.178 million"
https://ny.curbed.com/2016/12/13/13939954/extell-one-manhattan-square-penthouse-sold
and
LAST PRICE CHANGE
↓ $658,900 (5.0%) About 4 Weeks Ago
I'm not sure how it "Sold at ask"

That is more or less ask. I am talking about a lack of ultra-luxury type of discounts. 10-30% at this $ and $ per sq ft price point in this location.

Also, since it went into contract over 3 years ago I'm not sure how it pertains to current negotiability.

1y and a few months back. I am still very surprised that the buyers didn’t negotiate a bigger discount.

Sorry I see that the contract was signed 3 years back as per curbed article from 2016. That explains a lack of discount.

https://www.boweryboogie.com/2020/01/safety-lapses-and-homeless-in-the-hallways-of-extells-cherry-street-affordable-complex/

the winner of ryan serhant's "1 year free rent in nyc" was offered an apartment in this building. some climate activist.

are all climate activist psycho?

I wonder how much the 3 internet (expletive deleted) actually came out of pocket for that.

Up to 20% discounts now. Should have been done two years ago. Even sophisticated developers can chase the market down.

https://therealdeal.com/2020/04/30/extell-announces-covid-inspired-price-cuts-at-one-manhattan-square/

How would you like to be trying to sell something surrounded by NYCHA and Chinatown before CV is totally solved? How do you even answer any of the inevitable questions which are going to come from buyers?

Do you think they are in a better position post COVID-19 at 20% off than they were pre-COVID-19 giving back things like 10 years of common charges? As far as I can tell in the almost 3 years prior (March 2017 to January 2020) they were inking less than 5 deals a month on average.

I am sure that the people who have signed contracts but have not yet closed are really upset about this, as are the people who have already closed, or closed recently, and now everyone is being offered a huge discount.

It seems that smaller apartments have been selling but not larger apartments. They probably need to take 30 percent cut for larger apartments priced more than $3mm and sponsor a top private school branch near by along with shuttle bus to city hall. However, I am sure that they are aware of this but must have some factors which prevent them from doing it.

Like lack of cash?

Private schools sponsorship (call it a large $25-50mm donation for a building some where in two bridges location) would have been paid several times over by the carry cost and price cuts they have to endure. But it would have required that they acknowledge the pricing problem in the beginning.

Perhaps it was just an ill-conceived project in a not very accessible part of Manhattan. The Faraway shot of the building tells the whole story...

300,
I'm not sure I agree with that assessment: the are selling more 1 BRs but that's because more exist. But those aren't really "selling" either.

Keith, I love to explore the city on foot (not just where I live). Never thought of going to that area. One time I walked from sea port north on the waterfront to understand for myself why East side below 34th will never be west side. That is pretty much it.

There are very few Public Housing Projects on the West Side. The East Side has tons. How many years and how many times have I called the location here a mistake?

30, I wanted to see for myself why they couldn’t have park and nice bike path - basically there is not enough room and there are no unused piers like west side and East River is not that wide. Public housing - I knew about, which is why I do not walk around in that area.

See second post in this thread - talk about being bearish.

Bump. This is another thread I plan to check in 10yrs. We have some friends who bet on and lived through the Rushmore fiasco and ended up coming out well ahead (in their preference scheme . They had to live in the location, which did not bother them and was actually a plus for them given primary bread winner’s office location). I know some for whom daily proximity to Chinatown markets make this am ideal location. And with what they are experiencing in terms of racism fueled by Trump rhetoric, they are feeling less inclined to assimilate.

17 units went from "available" to "past sales" today. I see 9 actual closings for April 2020. And likely those were pre-COVID sales.

Playing the long game, I am placing my money on the Chinese.

And I'm not so sure that isn't the last place I'd want to be in a time of class struggle given how vocal a large percentage of the neighborhood has been about their feelings regarding this project.

@30yrs - I think what we are experiencing is a class warfare, but others view it as racial warfare. With all the destructive forces at play, not sure anywhere is safe.

In a time of social unrest, it's better to be on the edges. Be on 116th St at Morningside, not 125th and Lenox. Cherry St, not Union Sq. Red Hook, not the Barclay's Centre.

https://www.boweryboogie.com/2020/06/on-cherry-street-extell-dumps-its-mountain-of-garbage-next-door/

https://newyorkyimby.com/2020/10/extell-reveals-new-york-citys-largest-private-outdoor-garden-at-one-manhattan-square-in-two-bridges.html

And is any of this acre of space actually open to anyone, or is it all firmly shut like at my building?

Re garbage, why doesn't the city require these large buildings to have loading docks where containers can come and go? In Chicago you never see such giant trash mounds there because every major building has a loading dock or at least a hidden dumpster.

Your private serene outdoor garden, with an elevated subway screeching by every 5-10 minutes at all hours of the day.

George, Loading dock will make too much sense.

The price chopper has finally arrived

https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/59j

Or you could rent a different 3br, 66c, for $10k. The owner of 66c paid 4.06m last year and presumably $237k of closing costs at an 80% mortgage. So the owner is at least $1m in and will have to rent it out for nearly 3 years just to pay the closing costs and rental broker fee.

Two resales units sold significantly below what the sellers paid for them, a big loss plus their transaction expenses and transfer taxes. I don't know how anyone is comfortable paying the listing prices Extell is offering. How long do you think it'll take before resales in this building will break even or make a profit?

Seller paid $1,249,356 and sold for $1,125,000
https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/26g

Seller paid $1,215,000 and sold for $1,080,000
https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/21f

The project is great, but I don't think the neighborhood's amenities and restaurants are a match for the tenants who would buy there

kpp6837, I think they likely break even, when them bought it , the developer paid transfer tax and probably two years of monthly

Based on these numbers it looks like the sellout period for 1 Manhattan Square will be over 11 years.
https://www.amny.com/news/nycs-biggest-condo-developments-are-top-sellers/

Any word on the status of their loan? They took out $692M in 2019 at LIBOR + 4%, and it seems to be due right about now.

https://rew-online.com/blackstone-funds-692m-loan-to-extell/

Ah, they get to extend for a year:

https://irei.com/news/blackstone-provides-692m-in-financing-for-extells-one-manhattan-square/

Rate was ~6% when inked, dropped to ~4% shortly thereafter, and is looking like 9-10% over the next year. That’s gotta create a bit of sales pressure.

Extell continues to throw new sales incentives at this and other projects:
https://therealdeal.com/2022/11/15/extell-lures-buyers-with-condo-towers-mortgage-rate-perk/

I would have posted this in the Brooklyn Point thread but I didn't feel like have to read nonsense from the building shill (who still refuses to acknowledge it's not a "land lease condo" even though those can't exist outside of Battery Park City or Roosevelt Island) and another idiot who relentlessly refuse to admit when they are dead wrong lecture me when I've actually been in the right for years.

"The larger loan covers 242 unsold condo units and a garage unit. The smaller one is secured by 113 unsold condo units. Together, that’s 44 percent of the apartments in the 847-foot luxury development."
Only 56% sold? Not including commercial spaces.
https://therealdeal.com/2022/12/13/extell-refinances-355-unsold-units-at-one-manhattan-square-for-266m/amp/

At what point does the developer owning so many units in a high amenities building become a risk..
The incentives for keeping maintenance low vs amenities functioning, etc.

Looking at some of the units that have been listed for 5.5 years and only have 7% price cut..

steve123,
You mean you don't trust Extell? Is it because after making a commitment to replace the Pathmark formerly on the site with "an affordable supermarket"
https://www.amny.com/news/new-extell-building-is-wrecking-the-hood-in-many-ways-locals/

This is what they announced instead?
https://onemanhattansquare.com/upscale-gourmet-market-to-open-its-largest-location-at-extells-one-manhattan-square/