Post Memorial Day market

I have no idea (I'm not a pro) but I would speculate that the luxury market will be hit even harder as people with a lot of money leave the city for beach towns, while I would think that the rest of the market might remain relatively flat (pending some sort of economic/global event that changes the overall outlook). Given the number of stale luxury listings already on the market, I think it leaves sellers in a funny position of whether they pull off the market to wait until fall, cut the price to get attention or just ride it longer on the theory that once you are stale it is hard to get "staler"...

What about apartments in the $1-2M price range?

I keep thinking that the market is going to take a breather (my entire Xmas letter this year was full of doom and gloom) but the market, at least the nonluxury market, keeps not taking a breather.

Look down at the lower end -- just today I heard the story of 15 bids on a downtown studio with a view. I think under $2 mm, we're going to stay somewhat active with first-time buyers, at least till mid-July.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

I feel like things have slowed a bit, it's been easier getting to contract for sure. We have two recent accepted offers on a Tribeca loft, 2/2 condo (with killer views); both saw price cuts before we moved on them. Sometimes its hard to tell from where I am sitting as I am always busy, so try and keep perspective and not extrapolate what we are experiencing to the market.

We also just bid (accepted) on a village one bedroom under $1M. We bid, not accepted, waited 3 weeks, bid again and accepted after some negotiation.

So yes, I think the market is cooling a bit. Though for perspective, cooling from a strongish sellers market to a more balanced situation.

Keith Burkhardt
www.theburkhardtgroup.com

Any other thoughts from folks?

Extell should be putting Central Park Tower on the market imminently, but at an average unit price of $22 million it would seem the units are in the part of the market having the most issues:
https://ny.curbed.com/2017/6/1/15714666/central-park-tower-offering-plan-approval-sales-launch

Also this:
Billionaires’ Row staring at first foreclosure
https://therealdeal.com/2017/05/31/billionaires-row-staring-at-first-foreclosure/

No change in the Brooklyn townhouse market from what I can tell

https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/distressed-out/
Article mentions a multi family glut in Manhattan and Brooklyn

Market is getting ready to take a powder. Can't say exactly when but sooner rather than later. This means that would be investors, such as myself, need to prepare. Identifying soft spots and good long term investments is the key. Market changes also make this next cycle less predictable. Retail for the moment is dead. Commercial space is in abundance with more space on the way. The question is, where do small time RE investors set there sites?

Falco - I'm not saying your wrong (and in some segments I agree), but what do you see as the drivers/catalysts for this? Do you think some segments will get hit harder than others? When do you see it unfolding?

I think a number of small buildings on Avenues where the total income for the building is very heavily weighted from the retail space will get crushed and those will become opportunities for small investors.

Just curious if people have updated thinking now that some time has passed.