nearing the peak?

Houser, New condo oversupply is a well known fact. The problem is that there are very few priced at less than $2500 per s

Thanks for posting the link to the articles.

New high-end manhattan condo oversupply is old news. Hudson Yards will add further to the issues. Many have taken price reduction and the others need to lower their expectations. In my opinion, marginal areas like 1 Manhattan on lower east side will need to take a 20%+ price cut to move their inventory. Any condo in prime area with no views will need to come down close to $2000 per sq ft. Unsold units in top-end developments like 157 West 57th will need to come down around another $1000 per sq ft on top of $1000 per sq ft they have come down from their ridiculous ask of $5-6k per sq ft. They still will make a healthy profit. Meanwhile $1500-$1700 per sq ft range in good areas, good light but no special views, and full finished resale condos keep moving and slowly increasing in price as people realize that a new condo becomes resale condo in 3-5 years and the real estate taxes for old condos are much lower.

What do other people think? Keith?

Virtually all assets in the US are fully priced right now, so it's understandable that we've seen some cooling especially in the case of the ambitions/expensive new development segment of the market. Pockets of value still do exist, it's just that they are harder to find!

I think that it's going to depend a lot on the segment of the market. For real trophy properties (and I don't mean expensive properties that just claim that status), I can imagine the market still going up. For lower-price housing and gentrifying neighborhoods, I can imagine the prices still going up.

For most other segments, I think that there are a lot more reasons for property prices to go down than to go up, and in some cases I think prices could go down pretty significantly or the transactions will essentially halt if there are wealthy owners who don't have to sell.

I know I am not looking at a prime segment of the market, but prices have already dropped vs. past comps on units in FiDi. Values are already dropping.

thoth, Would love some examples of actual trades except Cipriani where common charges are out of control. Thanks.

A lot will be dependent on interest rates, which have not gone up as anticipated.

Sales seem to be very fast in this building and it is still 1 year from completion. 33 or 52 units in contract already and price is not cheap.

http://streeteasy.com/building/21-east-12-street-new_york

300 - that's an interesting example - is information available on when those apartments went into contract? My rough non-scientific sense is that things started to really slow down at the high end about 8-9 months ago (but that could be completely misguided), but perhaps that's only in certain more narrow segments that I've been focusing on.

Thats a pretty nice building, design and location. I love that every unit is a corner unit.

sipplemc, Location and building are very nice but the 2 bed room apts selling for $4-5mm are tiny. There is a lot of wasted sq footage in the structural elements.

Sipple, This is an example of what I am talking.
http://streeteasy.com/building/21-east-12-street-new_york/6b

Do brokers move listings to "in contract" without an actual buyer in large, new buildings to generate the perception of interest?

NY_Houser, no they don't. Or at least I assume they don't because even though RLS isn't known for being the most strict in terms of enforcing listing updates, as that would be really really bad and punishable by fines.

No they don't, that would be way to unethical, and punishable by severe REBNY fines. Also, it'd generally be against their interest, why wld they turn away buyers?

300, thanks for sharing - you are right. That 6B is nice but I could certainly do better (at least for my needs) with 4.4 million!

NY Houser...no way would brokers do this. The unethical ones do the exact opposite they delay as long as possible in posting "under contract" so as to possibly get more buyer leads

Brooklyn is still hot! There is still very little inventory and frenzied land grab for townhouses, detached homes, and brownstones. Further out neighborhoods like Greenwood, Lefferts, Kensington, and Midwood are selling high. B. Heights, Cobble HIll and Park Slope are still rising.

http://www.brownstoner.com/real-estate-market/brooklyn-real-estate-second-quarter-market-report-corcoran-douglas-elliman/

What do people think of Park Slope and Bk heights townhouse prices? I think they are somewhat soft and below 2015 peak but would love to hear from others.

What do people think of Park Slope and Bk heights townhouse prices? I think they are somewhat soft and below 2015 peak but would love to hear from others.

There have been some pretty large price cuts on houses in Park Slope
https://ny.curbed.com/2017/7/17/15985326/park-slope-carroll-street-lavish-brownstone

I think Brooklyn town house prices keep rising and are not slowing down anytime soon. Seem to be approaching $1,200 / sq foot and higher. Value proposition versus Manhattan is starting to get out of whack.