Will a lack of Chinese $ the market?
Started by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9878
Member since: Mar 2009
Discussion about
https://therealdeal.com/2017/08/02/chinese-overseas-real-estate-investment-could-absolutely-nosedive-this-year-morgan-stanley/ https://therealdeal.com/2017/07/31/paydirt-china-is-trying-to-neuter-its-gray-rhinos-what-will-that-mean-for-manhattans-skyline/ 30% of Manhattan transactions last year were done with Chinese $. If that falls by 84%, it seems that represents 1/4 of all deals done. That is... [more]
https://therealdeal.com/2017/08/02/chinese-overseas-real-estate-investment-could-absolutely-nosedive-this-year-morgan-stanley/ https://therealdeal.com/2017/07/31/paydirt-china-is-trying-to-neuter-its-gray-rhinos-what-will-that-mean-for-manhattans-skyline/ 30% of Manhattan transactions last year were done with Chinese $. If that falls by 84%, it seems that represents 1/4 of all deals done. That is a significant reduction, What will this mean to the uber-pricey new developments like Extell's Central Park Tower which in the past have been fueled by Chinese buyers? [less]
The more you have capital controls, the more you will have people determined to evade them. Outside of notable projects like Anbangs, how successful will cap controls work ? .Cap controls have a checkered past. sometimes they are effective, many times its like trying to plug a sieve. Imho, outside of bigger projects , I expect a minimal effect. Unless the Chinese gov really excercise serious enforcement, this too shall pass. China's current move as with previous ones seem more to throw a spotlight and scare investors vs an actual determined effort to reign in capital.
On a sepearte note, PBOC is great at keeping its house of cards propped up. Totalitarian regimes are usually good at that. But there are a number of troubling signs that if they manifested in a country like the US, would have taken the countries financial system into a nose dive. For now , they are patching the holes and sweeping things under the rug. When the ballon goes pop though, then you'll see some real attempts at cap control.
30, I think Chinese clampdown has already impacted marquee commercial properties and uber luxury market which will continue to drift down - the profit of 50-100 percent is never sustainable for a 2-3 year investment. Resales at less than $2k per square ft in prime manhattan will continue to chug along as Manhattan despite increased taxes continues to be a desirable place to live.
http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/70060-chinese-buyer-snaps-up-second-manhattan-trophy-apartment
Capital controls in China work because banks are government controlled and these money transfers are recorded. There is a black market for such transfers but the transaction costs are very high. The withdrawal of Chinese money is getting replaced by other countries such as Singapore. Hope 300_Mercer is correct about the small negative impact on the sub-$2,000psf. I personally think its just a delayed impact plus we have other shorter-term concerns such as a very possible US recession. I would not ant to be long Manhattan real estate.
Ximon, the problem is where else would you deploy? If you sold now then what do you do? Buy US stocks at all time highs? At least in Manhattan real estate there will be some stability