You think the inventory number is at 1 year supply, think again
Started by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
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Does anyone know what the actual inventory numbers. How many units have not been released for sale? If the units are not released then they are not counted. If a building has 300 units and show 30 sold and 20 for sale, that would leave 250 units not counted in the inventory numbers. So the question remains, what is the real number? Chelsea (45), Tribeca (30), Wall Street (20), East Village (18),... [more]
Does anyone know what the actual inventory numbers. How many units have not been released for sale? If the units are not released then they are not counted. If a building has 300 units and show 30 sold and 20 for sale, that would leave 250 units not counted in the inventory numbers. So the question remains, what is the real number?
Chelsea (45), Tribeca (30), Wall Street (20), East Village (18), Greenwich Village (10)
Midtown: Midtown West (17), Midtown East (14), Clinton (14), Midtown South (7), Sutton Place (6)
Upper West Side: Upper West Side (17), Lincoln Square (7), Manhattan Valley (6)
Upper East Side: Upper East Side (15), Yorkville (9), Lenox Hill (7), Carnegie Hill (3)
Upper Manhattan: Central Harlem (59), East Harlem (17), Hamilton Heights (4), Washington Heights (4), Inwood (1)
Brooklyn: Williamsburg (85), Clinton Hill (30), Downtown Brooklyn (21), Greenpoint (19), Prospect Heights (15)
Queens: Long Island City (25), Rockaway All (6), Astoria (4), Rockaway Park (3), Whitestone (3)
This is a total of 541 new developments. Lets assume a very low numbers of 20 units in each that still have not been released. That's 10,820 units hidden from the inventory numbers. And that's a conservative number. Feel free to weight in, however I'm convinced more then ever that inventory numbers will be 13-15,000 this time next year.
Opinions or perhaps some one has a more concrete number.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
This market is going to be a lot of pain this time next year. Look at Wlliamsburg alone. 85 new developments. Can you say inventory disaster. WOW, it's actually going to be worse then I previous thought.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
I guess facing the truth is painful. Every potential buyer should pay attention to these numbers.
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Response by dmag2020
over 17 years ago
Posts: 430
Member since: Feb 2007
Fail.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
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dmag2020- What?
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Response by 80sMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 633
Member since: Jun 2008
dco, department of building permits, which I have posted her before, were more then 31,000 for 2007. That was the 3rd year in a row of more than 30,000 permits issued. Back of the envelope, estimate what percent of issued permits are built (close to 100%), estimate what percentage of sales are new units vs. existing units 2005-2007, add another 30,000 units for 2008 and that is your supply number. So, out of 100,000-120,000 units built (or being built) since 2005, how many do you think have sold or will sell by 2009?
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
I don't realy have a clue, I wouldn't even feel comfortable taking a guess. Do you have a figure?
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Response by surdy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 121
Member since: May 2008
80sMan
Don't forget to add all those completed sales that will be coming back on the market as resales where investors bought only to flip it for a profit/loss.
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Response by 80sMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 633
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dco, I would be interested to know what percentage of apartment sales are re-sales as opposed to new construction/conversion. I suspect this is a question for Johnathon Miller, Urbandigs or Case/Shiller.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
80sMan- Where do you see the inventory numbers say 6, 12, or 18 months from now?
Perhaps I'm looking at things wrong. These seem like astronomical numbers even in a great market.
Soon the house of cards will come crashing down and will take many people with it.
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Response by 80sMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 633
Member since: Jun 2008
dco, the NYC real estate game is a game of "Fuck you. Pay me". It's an insiders game and a strongman's game. I hate to sound mercenary but the last person holding the hot potato gets burned.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
That would be very interesting. I still believe that many of these new developments had very high amounts of flippers. To say that NYC didn't have flippers is just being ignorant. So buildings probably had people buying multiple units. It would be interesting to know. New lending standards will prevent such behavior in the future. This is just another contributing factor to the rising inventory and the decreasing demand.
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Response by bjw2103
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
dco, the "new developments" listed through Streeteasy aren't all really "new." Many of those buildings listed are largely sold, so it's not a real accurate picture of what's new. Do a little more digging and you'll see that it's not a particularly useful gauge of inventory.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
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bjw2103- Point taken and I'm aware, however I would imagine that there are some developments that are also not listed.
What is your feeling on the true inventory number?
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
bjw2103- Point taken and I'm aware, however I would imagine that there are some developments that are also not listed.
What is your feeling on the true inventory number?
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Response by bjw2103
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
dco, I really have no idea on the actual inventory number. It's surely pretty high, as developers are probably holding back a lot of units at this point, but it's very tough to know much for sure. I'm going by Urbandigs' widget as a gauge of the trends. Those may be more important anyway.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
bjw2103- Even if you consider half my number, that's still 5,000 more. Which would bring the inventory number today to about 13,000. That's almost a 2 year supply in the worst housing market since the great depression. Perhaps I'm wrong and prices will stabilize and then increase by the end of the year, after all this is NYC. All this and the JOB cuts haven't even started.
This market is going to be a lot of pain this time next year. Look at Wlliamsburg alone. 85 new developments. Can you say inventory disaster. WOW, it's actually going to be worse then I previous thought.
I guess facing the truth is painful. Every potential buyer should pay attention to these numbers.
Fail.
dmag2020- What?
dco, department of building permits, which I have posted her before, were more then 31,000 for 2007. That was the 3rd year in a row of more than 30,000 permits issued. Back of the envelope, estimate what percent of issued permits are built (close to 100%), estimate what percentage of sales are new units vs. existing units 2005-2007, add another 30,000 units for 2008 and that is your supply number. So, out of 100,000-120,000 units built (or being built) since 2005, how many do you think have sold or will sell by 2009?
I don't realy have a clue, I wouldn't even feel comfortable taking a guess. Do you have a figure?
80sMan
Don't forget to add all those completed sales that will be coming back on the market as resales where investors bought only to flip it for a profit/loss.
dco, I would be interested to know what percentage of apartment sales are re-sales as opposed to new construction/conversion. I suspect this is a question for Johnathon Miller, Urbandigs or Case/Shiller.
80sMan- Where do you see the inventory numbers say 6, 12, or 18 months from now?
Perhaps I'm looking at things wrong. These seem like astronomical numbers even in a great market.
Soon the house of cards will come crashing down and will take many people with it.
dco, the NYC real estate game is a game of "Fuck you. Pay me". It's an insiders game and a strongman's game. I hate to sound mercenary but the last person holding the hot potato gets burned.
That would be very interesting. I still believe that many of these new developments had very high amounts of flippers. To say that NYC didn't have flippers is just being ignorant. So buildings probably had people buying multiple units. It would be interesting to know. New lending standards will prevent such behavior in the future. This is just another contributing factor to the rising inventory and the decreasing demand.
dco, the "new developments" listed through Streeteasy aren't all really "new." Many of those buildings listed are largely sold, so it's not a real accurate picture of what's new. Do a little more digging and you'll see that it's not a particularly useful gauge of inventory.
bjw2103- Point taken and I'm aware, however I would imagine that there are some developments that are also not listed.
What is your feeling on the true inventory number?
bjw2103- Point taken and I'm aware, however I would imagine that there are some developments that are also not listed.
What is your feeling on the true inventory number?
dco, I really have no idea on the actual inventory number. It's surely pretty high, as developers are probably holding back a lot of units at this point, but it's very tough to know much for sure. I'm going by Urbandigs' widget as a gauge of the trends. Those may be more important anyway.
bjw2103- Even if you consider half my number, that's still 5,000 more. Which would bring the inventory number today to about 13,000. That's almost a 2 year supply in the worst housing market since the great depression. Perhaps I'm wrong and prices will stabilize and then increase by the end of the year, after all this is NYC. All this and the JOB cuts haven't even started.
Inventory is going down.