Housing markets weakens again

I think we're officially at the "worst housing decline since the depression" stage...

then why can't I still afford a 2 bedroom in Manahttan???

Because in any efficient market, everyone shouldn't be able to afford anything they want. Just because prices get cut in half doesn't mean you can afford the new price...

The prices in Manhattan have not decreased...stevejhx can sprout all his bs but the bottom line is prices are still going up and people are still buying.

"changes the psychology of thinking of owner-occupied real estate as an "investment" when, in fact, it is not. It is a capitalized expense."

Thanks steve, but I'm already in that camp and hope more people can realize this. Buying just needs to be better than renting for it to be a good “investment”, everything else is gravy.

Hey Eddie, have you officially become part of steve's ass or are your lips just there temporarily?

Facts are stubborn things: it is simply incorrect as a factual matter to say that the prices in Manhattan have not decreased. If you check the "price changed" data on this very website you will see that prices have changed and are trending downward. Now, you can argue that the number of decreases in Manhattan prices is not statistically significant, that the percentage of the decreases is not material, or that the price changes have occurred only for less desirable prices in less desirable areas, or that the reported decreases are erroneous. What you cannot say is that the prices in Manhattan have not decreased.

Just watched Sens. Dodd and Shelby interviewed on NewsHour. I have to say, having seen the goddawful monster Barney Frank in previous interviews, I was sick to my stomach knowing that this new housing bill was a complete abortion borne from the worst, most misguided of political motives. Paul Gigot's editorial yesterday hammered that feeling home.

But watching Dodd and Shelby left me thinking that maybe we really didn't have much of a choice on this one. And that is not good news. Watch the segment online.

correction: meant "...complete abortion born..." which is one spectacular mixed metaphor if I say so myself.

prices do not seem to fall for large apartments on upper west side. 4 brokers told me that there is no way we can buy a 3 bed for under 2MM. demand is still high and choices are few and poor

bela..I hear you..don't listen to stevejhx and his "followers" prices are rising and will continue to rise. talking about lower prices are not making it happen.

"stevejhx can sprout all his bs but the bottom line is prices are still going up and people are still buying."

Oh really? Do a search on "price increase" and "price decrease" and tell me what you come up with.

"this new housing bill was a complete abortion borne from the worst, most misguided of political motives. Paul Gigot's editorial yesterday hammered that feeling home."

Agreed. The Freddie / Fannie thing is unconscionable: increase the credit risk (by raising the guaranty limit) of two companies that are in trouble precisely because they didn't know how to manage risk.

The only solution that was needed was to allow owner-occupied real estate to be protected by bankruptcy law, which would force a workout. The rest of it is cr*p.

stevejhx prices are coming down when sellers were asking absurd prices to begin with. as soon as prices come down things sell check for yourself 3-4 bed prewar on upper west side under 3.2MM very few and all the apts for 2.75 are in contract rather quickly i would say

Interesting point made by someone on another thread:

Kudlow: Media has missed the market bottom.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25835877

"Oh really? Do a search on "price increase" and "price decrease" and tell me what you come up with."

steve, instead of basing your research on streeteasy price declines, why don't you go out and look at some apartments and then report back to us all of the great deals you are finding. What motive do folks like bela have to say prices aren’t decreasing? I believe that people who are actually out in the market looking to buy something have a tad bit more credibility than someone who has been banging the crash, crash, crash drum based on internet research and a 7 year old flawed Fed paper written about the state of the Albany housing market.

"Just watched Sens. Dodd and Shelby interviewed on NewsHour. I have to say, having seen the goddawful monster Barney Frank in previous interviews, I was sick to my stomach knowing that this new housing bill was a complete abortion borne from the worst, most misguided of political motives. Paul Gigot's editorial yesterday hammered that feeling home.

But watching Dodd and Shelby left me thinking that maybe we really didn't have much of a choice on this one. And that is not good news. Watch the segment online."--Faustus

Normally Faustus I think you're a jerk but I have to agree with you 100% on this one.

I like Kudlow and I think he is a very smart guy. But at its base this is a story about supply and demand. Months supply of new homes is 11 and of exisitng homes is also 11. These numbers averaged 5 in most of this decade and you have to go back to the early 1980s to see double digits in these series.

Mortgage rates are sharply higher today than when the fed started cutting rates last summer. And credit conditions are much tighter today. Manhattan is a jumbo loan market and it is significantly more expensive to borrow today than it was a year ago. And we have eliminated a large source of housing demand by eliminating 10% down and liar loans.

We are told by new developments that they are "85% sold". Yet when I look at the numbers even for reputable developers like Related and Extell the numbers do not add up. The Brompton by Related says they are 90% sold. This development will have over 100 units. According to Streeteasy there are 17 active listings and only 13 listings are in contract. How is that 85% sold?

Supply is everywhere on the upper east side with new developments recently coming on line and numerous others coming on line soon. Add the condo conversions, and the supply from flippers who bought into the new developments only to find they can only rent these places for a fraction of their monthly payments. I see boarded up tenaments also where you have to know there is another new condo project on the drawing board.

I think Manhattan has had the benefit of rationale coop boards who required common sense down payments and also made it hard for flippers and speculators. But make no mistake, Manhattan is facing the same supply and demand trends that most of the country is facing. On top of that Manhattan has a much less robust jobs and personal income picture due to the layoffs on Wall Street.

It may take more time but I have seen prices start to come down. Most sellers are still in denial. Many who own larger apartements have the financial flexibility to not have to sell unless they can get top bid. But there are plenty of others who have over extended themselves and will need to sell. Particularly those who purchased with low money down and never intended to live in their unit or to become a landlord. There are others who no longer have jobs or will no longer have jobs that pay the vast sums that they saw in the past.

It will take time but Bela and Julia you will have plenty of opportunity to take advantage. And what is the rush to put your hard earned cash into a depreciating asset?

"steve, instead of basing your research on streeteasy price declines, why don't you go out and look at some apartments and then report back to us all of the great deals you are finding."

There's an entire other thread dedicated to that, JuiceMan, which you conveniently ignore, which shows LOTS of people either losing money top line, or bottom line after transaction costs.

Get real.

And that's the problem, there are no "great deals" to be had. Property is still overpriced.

> Media has missed the market bottom.

How is it a bottom if its still going down? Amusingly enough, check today's stats....

> People who say that waterfront condos with Manhattan skyline views, a 5-minute subway ride to Grand
> Central, at 60% of comparable Manhattan prices, are overpriced or not "worth the money," are people
> who can't afford to buy there and are bitter

Who needs facts when you can just whine like a 3rd grader...

Best part is, this is the putz telling OTHER people they're whining and have no facts...

BTW, that same description also basically applies to Jersey City, and I don't think thats worth 60% either. Not to mention, being 60% of manhattan values means you're declining...

> LIC doesn't want the haters anyway

Yes, I definitely remember kids telling kids who negged them in 3rd grade going "well, I didn't want you to be my friend anyway, stupid"