Number of Offering Plans Drops For 1st Time Since '99

And apartment starts in NYC are up. And sales have decreased *way* beyond this decrease, meaning inventory is STILL growing. If declining inventory is what you're clinging to, its gonna be a tough, tough year for you...

Is 4.5% really a significant decline? And how long does it take for a new offering plan to translate into actual inventory? Isn't the market still just starting to digest the inventory from plans submitted in 2005-2006?

I agree that the slowdown is worth watching; but if it's a bullish signal, it seems like a very long-term one.

I look at the RE market like this:

the credit crisis will sort out all the rabble in turn making those who can get loans much less riskier buyers, there are now 2 years of buyers on the sidelines, there is now a slightly larger amount of invenotry available, but all signs point to significantly less inventory in the next 3-5 years.

So lots of people going to jump back into the market, healthy less risky loans will be available, and near term inventory will start to decrease.

Looks good to me.

"So lots of people going to jump back into the market, healthy less risky loans will be available, and near term inventory will start to decrease. Looks good to me."

Sneaky, seems that you have read the first chapter, the last chapter, but forgot about the whole plot in the middle.

I met somebody once who was divorced. He said he had had a marvelous marriage, but it didn't work out. I said, "How can you have a marvelous marriage that didn't work out?" and he stopped talking to me.

It's called denial. Something must happen between the first and last chapters of this story, and you ignore it.

Steve - th emiddle happened already - the largest credit and RE crisis in the US - over the past year. Guess what it didnt effect NY and it now looks like if it does effect NY RE, it will be a minor decrease (less than 10%)

"Guess what it didnt effect NY and it now looks like if it does effect NY RE, it will be a minor decrease (less than 10%)"

Oh. I see. Just 6 months into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the price of illiquid assets haven't fallen more than 10%, and it's over.

Kewl. The Readers Digest version of economics.

> Guess what [the largest credit and RE estate crisis in the us] didnt effect NY

Wow, Stevem is this petrfitz guy really this dumb?

Petrputz, have you ever read a newspaper?

petrfitz: Were the rabble a factor in driving up the Manhattan market? I think you have said repeatedly that they weren't. If they helped drive prices up, then shaking them out would seem likely to drive prices down. If they were never a factor to begin with, then there's nothing to shake out.

petrfitz: Were the rabble a factor in driving up the Manhattan market? I think you have said repeatedly that they weren't. If they helped drive prices up, then shaking them out would seem likely to drive prices down. If they were never a factor to begin with, then there's nothing to shake out.

Eddie - i dont read about RE in newspapers. I actually own RE - 4 buildings in Manhattan - and I know what is happening with rents and property values.

How about you? Where does your knowledge come from? REading newspapers? What do you own? How many rental units do you have?

"Wow, Stevem is this petrfitz guy really this dumb?"

Yes.

Yes, perfitz is quite dumb. I have him on ignore so I don't see any of his comments, nor do I want to. I thought you had him on ignore too Steve?

West81st, the rabble factor definitely drove up Manhattan real estate. When I say rabble I mean people bought 5-10 years earlier than their finances warranted. But hey, with $0 down and no principal payments for 5 years at such a low rate...why not? Prices only go up. Worst case is we sell for a profit...or breakeven..right?

And, by the way, offering plans have dropped because of the sunset of the 421A tax abatement program.

He was on ignore, alpine, till two days ago. He's just gotten too entertaining.

Alpine - how is that plummeting suburban market holding up? I hear that there are ghettos forming in the suburbs and people in Alpine are just walking away from their homes.

Only going to go up due to MBS investors strike and inflation....should do wonders for the market

Mortgage rates spike
Inflation fears send 30-year rate up sharply; ARMs jump even more
By Steve Kerch & Deborah Levine, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage rates spiked this week on inflation fears, with the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate loan soaring more than a quarter percentage point to a national average 6.63%, its highest level in nearly a year, Freddie Mac said Thursday.

"He's just gotten too entertaining."

Somewhat reluctantly, I have to agree. He's really done a disservice to this board by turning half the discussions he participates in into anti-Republican diatribes/calling everyone a "partisan moron." Most of the rest of the time, he's disseminating bad information about healthcare or attempting to belittle others by asking them their net worth, etc. I'm not sure this board will ever be as useful as it once was, but the entertainment factor has certainly been upped.

to add credibility to BJW's bad mouthing of me - he thinks that the US Health Care industry is in just fine shape and Americans are tickled pink to have (or not have) the coverage we get here.

petrfitz, to add credibility to what you're saying, point to me exactly where I said these things. You're really just reinforcing my last post here.

Everybody needs a SuckerPete. SOMEBODY has to take the losses in a crash, right?