my first home

Oh great. Another shill for this craptastic building. Go sell it elsewhere.

"Extell began sales in late 2015 with an outreach to Asian buyers...."

Pretty clear why you go to Asia to get some sales under your belt. Its a remote location and when your in Asia buying based on a sellers model, pretty easy to say what you want. If your walking to fidi , your not walking along the river. Thats a storage facilty, salt pile and Smith houses your walking by. Be careful what hours your walking near the water. It is fairly remote. I would swing up to East broadway and walk south from there. its longer, but much safer and interesting

On the market for three years and how many out of 800 units have fully executed contracts? I think the last official announcement they made was that they had only sold 100.
And when you say "bought" you mean closed?
How much of a discount did you get off the listed asking price?

I fully expect another newly registered SE account to enter this discussion...

Take a look at the current listings - it looks like they are being manipulated to make it look like they are being sold within a couple of weeks of being placed on the market.

I think they sell first and then show not sold for a couple of weeks before showing in contract. Appx 150 in contract.

I know Extel accepted appx 20 percent below already significantly reduced ask for one of their large units in another building. I think they can move this 20 percent below current ask.

"Appx 150 in contract"
If that it the case - only 150 out of 800 in contract after ?30 months? Of marketing - then I think they are in trouble. Which would make "grasping at straws" a reasonable explanation for this latest behavior.

It looks like they finally added that $13 million penthouse which supposedly sold like 2 years ago and listed it as being on the market for 3 days?

They probably have to do a bulk sale and offer generous free transportation (every 10 minutes or so) for 5 years to City Hall/Fulton.

And they need to pay some money to a couple of famous chefs to open mid priced restaurants next to it. I am sure they know of all these options and in addition to lowering the prices by 20 percent.

I think they should have offered 500k to fix up the nearest subway station at East Broadway. That is one of the dankest smelliest subway stations I have ever been in. Granted the new development will generate some level of economic activity for the hood, and that s/b good. but it really looks more like an outpost with many resaons for residents to stay within its confins vs venturing out. The old Pathmark was great for the hood, lots of pedestrian traffic and purpose for the people living down there.

Here is an example of a common everyday occurrence: it's 10:15PM and there's something you need so you take a walk to your neighborhood store to get it.
If you live here, what store is that and what route do you take to get there?

Bodega/deli type store on Monroe, but at 10:15 at night, that is not a place to be, especially in the winter. You are walking past too many deserted areas with no pedestrians on that side of the bridge. Other choice is East Broadway or down near the East Broadway subway stop. Maybe OM will open a small convenience store in the lobby. The specific problem with OM location is that the surrounding areas are not going to change anytime soon. The projects on two sides. Sanitation salt station and DOT under the bridge will be there a long long time. River and highway overpass on the other side is not going to get any better.Unlike other developments where nearby blocks can pick up and gentrify, OM location does not have that type of set up. For that price, I would much rather be in a larger 1br co-op i.e 385 Grand Street @ $1,000 per sq ft vs OM $1,700 . Yes, diff quality, but much better location/neighborhood feel /walkability 24/7 (plus you get a balcony)

We largely agree but I think you are leaving out the possibility of NYCHA having developers build on the parking lots and the impact of the other supertalls coming to the neighborhood. However my point exactly about what it will be like to run out for a quart of milk at night - where else below 96th St would it be as sketchy an experience?

Knewbie, Great knowledge of the area. I think grocery store will come soon after closings start as China town businessmen are very entrepreneurial. One can't change the subway.

This project seemed designed entirely for the foreign market in particular the Asian market where most buyers want new construction with luxury amenities and great views. Water views in particular are very feng shui. In China, any apartment previously occupied, no matter how old, is considered "second-hand" and therefore less desirable.

Neighborhood probably means very little as few of these tenants will ever take the subway (which mainland Chinese think is extremely gross) and will have cars waiting for them downstairs, some with private chauffeurs which is a typical amenity for a Chinese businessman. Chinese cities have seen similar development in such older marginal locations and buyers don't seem to care as neighborhoods in Chinese cities have changed at an amazing pace.

As challenging as this neighborhood might be for locals who prefer homes that are close to work and public transportation, I can see many buyers liking the highway location which offers good access for weekend getaways. And good Chinatown food is only a phone call away. Of course, reality is often different as I suspect many of these foreign buyers bought without ever visiting.

Also the amenities package at this project is exceptional, even by modern standards. Jeez, a bowling alley, cigar room, full-court basketball court, spa with private treatment rooms, 75’ swimming pool, golf simulator, wine room, billiards room, theatre (karaoke anyone?) What is a Private Motor Court? Clearly the amenities were designed to keep people happy staying at home.

http://onemanhattansquare.com/amenities/

Unfortunately, this project hit the market far too late as many buyers probably thought they were getting a great deal and could resell at a profit in the not too distant future. Does anyone know of any resales at this project?

The first post was incredibly ham-fisted and poorly worded. Maybe an unhappy international investor trying their best to push sales?

The businesses that might benefit the most from this project could be: chauffeurs, food delivery services, personal trainers, personal shoppers, personal chefs, caretakers, butlers and ticket agents. The front desk would operate a lot like a hotel concierge. I have a feeling Extel has already thought of all this and will staff up to meet this demand.

Among the most unusual apt. amenities I saw in many upscale Chinese homes were second kitchens (one Western, one Asian) and rooms with karaoke stages and sound systems.

"This project seemed designed entirely for the foreign market in particular the Asian market"

Which is why they kicked off the marketing exclusively in Asia for over 6 months before opening their NY sales office. I think their hope was that they would be more than 50% sold, but as far as I know they only got 10% which was an indication that the Asian market wasn't going to eat this project up like they thought.

Well, one thing I heard often from mainland Chinese was that they did not want to live in Chinese neighborhoods like Chinatown or Flushing. Such traditional Cantonese areas were not considered upscale enough for rich Mandarin speakers. And there is a language barrier. China is a big country and people from Canton (Guangzhou), Shanghai and Hong Kong have not traditionally mixed well with Northern (e.g. Beijing) people. Same with Western Chinese but most of them are not rich. I also suspect many of them would prefer not to live in the same building with so many Chinese. But things are changing.

The idea of marketing a residential project in Asia is now of course far from new. The time to do it was maybe 6-7 years ago until maybe 2 years ago. So much competition now and Asians know the market is soft. Marketing in Asia is also expensive with commissions, travel and event costs. When I saw my first international property show in CHina, I was amazed at the pageantry of it all - fashion models, celebrities, standing room only presentations. The New York City developers were competing with places like London, Portugal, Spain, The Caribbean, Cyprus, and Malta where citizenship by investment programs were part and parcel with the property markets. Still a lot of money coming out of Singapore though.

So, empirical shows they missed the boat on the Asian market. They also look like they missed the boat on the local market. And the market as a whole and especially new construction appears to be receding. You've got a mostly unsold 800 unit building in a marginal locatio

What would you do?

One answer is addressing the deficiencies of the area - grocery store, sponsor a few mid-priced hip restaurants, free transportation to the nearest big subway stop. Did I mention prices cuts to closer to all-in cost plus a few percent per year equity return? Turn some into corporate rentals.

Get a Shake Shack, nice bakery/coffee shop - people in New York do not want to be holed in to the building despite all the amenities. They want a neighborhood.

Extel is pretty smart despite this particular project. I am sure they are considering these options.

I know they promised a supermarket but as of yet have not announced who. I know the neighborhood is expecting a "budget" place, and I think whoever they pick there will be some pushback.
However, I don't think they allocated any space for Restaurants.

None of those options will get them out the hole they appear to be in except for conversion to rentals. I would add a plan for a partial hotel conversion and maybe a bulk sale strategy like they tried at One57. But these are also not great options as the hotel and rental markets are also suffering. I suggest they start talking to their banks and look for other sources of capital to bail them out. I agree Extel is pretty smart so I wonder how they got themselves into this position. I am guessing they have already been trying for a recap possibly with their sources in the Middle East and Asia. One57 has only 94 condo units. One Manhattan Square has 815. Yikes!

Just spitballing but what about a hotel condo? Fractionals?

I think they have a lot of room to cut prices. I just do know why they have not cut prices so far. Perhaps they are discounting individually not to turn off original buyers who may walk away from their 10% deposit if they cut prices by 20%.

300, I agree and hope they have patient money in place. But I wonder how low prices would have to go to attract local buyers. And Extel will never be able to spend enough money to make dramatic improvements to public transit. East Broadway station is already overcrowded. Would a Goldman Sachs employee ever live here? Well, maybe an executive who could take a cab to and from work every day. That actually might be pretty quick.

If I am an American Chinese who likes grocery shopping at Chinatown - vegetable variety in Chinatown can not be beat - sure. Citybike, walk or cab to work. It is no different from West Chelsea in that regard for transportation.

They can get local buyers for high floors around $1800-2000 per square ft which is 25 percent down from current asks.

This one at low $3mm in my opinion is a good deal. Still $2k per sq ft. Personally, I will buy a resale at $1300-1500 per sq ft with high end new renovation in Turtle Bay but without such views and amenities.
https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/62a?context%5Bcontroller%5D=%23%3CBuildingController%3A0x0000558c490c3a70%3E&context%5Bcurrent_user%5D=1004028&hide_if_empty=true&section=sales

I just don't see rich Chinese biking to Chinatown and local Chinese-Americans are not generally rich. This project was designed for a luxury type of tenant wanting a full menu of luxury services that the neighborhood cannot offer. Other luxury buildings to follow could have created a critical mass of demand for services outside of these buildings but that now seems like a pipe dream. Reminds me of residential projects in the Financial District which suffered and continue to suffer from a lack of amenities and sales prices reflect that problem.

West Chelsea is indeed similar in a few respects most notably distance from the subways but it's a lot safer (at least from what I think and offers amenities like the High Line, Chelsea Piers, Hudson River Park plus excellent restaurants, art galleries and night clubs. And projects like The XI aren't selling either albeit at higher prices psf.

I think if you are ABC and can afford these numbers the last place you want to buy is here even if you want to take a weekly trip to CT for grocery shopping.
I also think the market values West Chelsea WAY higher than here - while there are a few buildings where you might have to walk past a public housing building, there's none where you have to walk through blocks of them. And you'd be hard pressed to still find blocks where the average New Yorker fealt unsafe in West Chelsea, where I think it's exactly the opposite here.
At $4 million+ for a 3 br, I just don't see the buyer who can afford that wanting to have their family in this location no matter how nice the building is.

It seems every Manhattan neighborhood gets better with time. I can remember when West Chelsea was a pretty scary place. But Extell does not have 10+ years to wait for the area to get better. Just can't quite get why they did this project. Maybe their breakeven is crazy low.

I think many/most of these foreign buyers were looking to park money in the States and look to flip or give to their kids down the road while in the meantime enjoying their fantastic Manhattan pied a terre when they are in town. Buy low, sell high must have been the pirch in Asia. In just a couple of years, this is has all changed.

https://www.boweryboogie.com/2019/11/four-arrested-after-knifing-attack-in-east-broadway-station/

PS I miss ximon.

30, Are the new bearish poster not bearish enough for you?

I miss ximon too.

I hadn't noticed he was gone but I always appreciated his posts.