Luxury dollar volume down

I very much respect your extremely thoughtful posts, but in this case I am going to poke at your analysis a bit. In my view, for data to be relevant, you need to look at broader sets of that data because there can be so many factors that impact blips. What you are saying might be true, but I tend to think that you need to look at it over the course of a longer period than just one week YoY.

On a largely unrelated note (but in support of your general theme), I think the Olshan report only gives a glimpse of the real picture because it doesn't have access to the actual contracted price (and even that is subject to manipulation). My sense from talking to people is that the situation is much more dire than those types of numbers might suggest. It seems that there is a bit of a stalemate going on between Buyers and those Sellers that don't really have to sell, and that for the most part Sellers are going to have to blink first.

I think top-end new developments priced more than $4k per sq ft still have a lot of room to go down before they can move it. They keep building them. However, I can’t say the same about non park block townhouses in upper east and upper west side which have already corrected 20 percent from the crazy asks. What helps the townhouse market is very little new supply.

What is some one rich in nyc with 3 kids and a live-in help or visitors to do? Townhouses or burbs and limited number of coops with real 5 bedrooms.

From the most recent Olshan report:
"Stat Geek Alert: In the past 2 weeks, there have been a flurry of townhouse contracts--11 in total, the most since January 2017. On average, the 11 houses dropped their prices by 19% from the original asking price to $1,808/sq.ft. before a contract was signed, and average days on the market was 265. The houses averaged 22 feet wide and 5,026 square feet."
So the market appears to be agreeing with you, but also note the $1,808/SF price which is a hell of a lot lower than ultra-luxury Coop/Condo pricing.

Thank you. My estimate of 20 percent happened to be correct out of sheer luck. I think townhouses should indeed be priced a lot lower than new condos with views due to significant wasted space in stairs, inefficient layout vs a large condo, inclusion of basement space in the statistics these days, and of course a lack of view which directly correlates with light. However, not at 40 percent of the top end new construction which has oversupply^2. Despite my grim view on the top-end priced at $4k which is driven by oversupply and execessively high pricing, I think there are many fair deals to be had in $1300-1600 nicely renovated apartments. In area like Turtle bay, even cheaper.

One can get resale with high-end new/ish reno in Turtle bay in a good doorman building for $1200-1400 per square ft with very nice light.

In a condo.