My outrageous 2019 Real Estate predictions

Interesting. Makes me what to short the resi market. Any ideas how to do that?

Short brokerage houses like Zillow or developers like Forest City?

You could short one of the REITs which is comprised of single family houses I guess.

3 and 7 are not far fetched at all given over supply of new condos.

And #6 as the over supply is truly in the largest units 3000 square ft or larger priced at $3k plus plus per sq ft.

This is interesting. Thank you. Would you be willing to elaborate on #2?

Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z) dropped 3.4% today and is now down over 50% in the past 6.5 months. Analysts considered it a hold until very recently due to its strong earnings but 4th Qtr Company estimates are now below analysts' forecasts.

You may be a little late on shorting, look at rlgy. Regarding the AG's office, I was interviewed twice by them about 5 years ago. They wanted to make sure no one was interfering with what they considered a very consumer-friendly model. Some other rather interesting things discussed, I wouldn't want to bring that out in a public forum. It was very interesting, and comforting to see how much they we're concerned with protecting consumers.

I wonder what kind of disruptive model you're talkin about? Models like purplebricks don't leave much room for brokers to make big bucks, you wouldn't see top talent migrating there. Compass may be a great company, however I wouldn't call them disruptive. And I'm not hiring ;) I will predict more buyers and sellers especially sellers migrating to The Burkhardt Group. We have another record year.

Many of your other predictions are probable. I think for the most part we will see continued buying, however very selectively.

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

2019 will be a light(ish) version of '09-'11. It is going to get very, very bad for sellers and sponsors. But that also means it could get bad for buyers in new developments because we will see all the same shady crap we saw when everything tanked 10 years ago.

Problem is, things could get even worse than my bearish sentiments above. Even if you support the current administration, it has--and will continue to--thrown the markets into chaos. Stability, which markets crave even amid volatility, will not be forthcoming until there is regime change of some kind.

So, 2019 will continue to crash for sellers, but frankly, it's bad news for all of us.

Looking at the data on UD the market started improving towards the end of 2019. All in all 2019 was a pretty stable market, then covid-19.

Could've been better , could've been worse
Around here, could've been a lot worse ! ! !