The Biggest Loser 2020 predictions

That whole building is suffering. Good example of the dangers of buying in a 421a.

Put down all new developments >$4k per sq ft.

I think some of the "older" new developments will have trouble too. There are a lot of rather ordinary white boxes at 15 CPW for example. It's no longer the cool building, and it faces a lot of much better properties around the corner. Some of the listings are even using words like "renovated" and "pre-war".

Example: https://streeteasy.com/sale/1431839

While this unit might end up being break-even on paper, someone who bought in 2010 could have put that $10m into the S&P 500 and today have quadrupled his money while always being fully liquid.

Basically $7k per sq ft in 2015-16 has become $5k at the end of 2019 guessing without causing any losses to the developers and it will become $4k over time causing losses to Extels and Related.

300,
Are you willing to concede that part of the market is down close to 30% at this point?

I was calling for 30 percent down in that segment a couple of years back. I think I was commenting on 157 West 57th. From the initial asks, actual sales indeed for the most part are down 20-30 percent.

Here is the old thread.

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/43143-price-prediction-for-ultra-luxury

Some excerpt. However, I do not believe in throwing baby with the bath water and differentiate between product at different $ per sq ft. I am pretty consistent in my bearish prediction about ultra luxury segment.

Response by 300_mercer
about 2 years ago
Posts: 6323
I think 40 percent discount is certainly possible for apartments priced at $5k+ per sq ft and over $15mm absolute price as that segment has 10 years worth of supply.

But it's not solely off "initial asks," is it?

https://streeteasy.com/closing/10310497
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1399293

Perhaps that qualified for one of the biggest losers of 2019:
Including closing costs, designer upgrade, etc they probably lost over $10 million on $28 million purchase.

Sam did pretty well when he sold 25b at 15 Central Park West. Bought $4.25M sold for $8.5M.

Sam did pretty well when he sold 25b at 15 Central Park West. Bought $4.25M sold for $8.5M.

I agree with 300's sentiment regarding pricing some of these buildings. This was simply based on demand of the ultra-wealthy. Buildings trading at 5 to $7,000 a square foot never appeared to be based on anything tangible, other than appealing to a buyer's ego regarding living at a particular address.

That said, the most recent higher end deal we've done, $13M, client had a 50 million dollar plus net worth. Their main concern was finding a home that they loved and their family would be happy in. The rest of his cash was invested in a more mindful manner.

Re Sam, I am sure he had plenty of money left to be invested in the market if liked.

https://streeteasy.com/sale/1265873
We have spoken about this listing before. I'm sure it will be back in the new year. Last asking $10 million, but that's what they paid and then did an extensive/gut renovation. They are losing millions here.

This is one where the taxes went through the roof.

420 West Broadway, PH
5/15 sold $17 million
https://streeteasy.com/sale/1083677

Currently asking $10 million.
https://streeteasy.com/building/94-thompson-street-new_york/phb
Losing at least $8 million.

This is how frustrated Keith is at not being able to control the narrative:
He's reaching back for a 2010 sale to show someone making money. Go back to explaining how not losing too much money is a "positive result" today.

Can we keep this one to market predictions? George posted that link.

I think the NY Post might be following me.
https://nypost.com/2019/12/24/the-biggest-losers-in-new-york-real-estate-of-2019/

Maybe not the biggest loser, but at this rate looks like is will be >20% defying everything being said about where the problems in the market are (i.e. Prime Village location, condo, good building, designer renovation,etc)
https://streeteasy.com/building/59-west-12-street-new_york/5e

Seeing this listing in this week's Olshan Report (where there are only eight contracts even though each of the last two years there have been 12) I was surprised to find a price drop of over 25% in what had been previously talked as one of the hottest new developments.
https://www.corcoran.com/nyc-real-estate/for-sale/greenwich%20village/21-East-12th-Street/5274859