Will civil unrest kill NYC real estate prices?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/business/retailers-election-protests.html

It certainly has Mrs George unsettled. She has been trying to train the dog to sh!t on the balcony so she doesn't have to deal with what happens on the street at night when I'm not home. She is a life-long New Yorker, mind you. But her conception of NY is what she grew up with: Giuliani and Bloomberg's New York. She would never live in the NY of Dinkins, Beame, or Lindsay. (I leave out Ed Koch because he redeemed himself on The People's Court.)

I don't think any one factor will kill NY real estate. It will require a combination of factors. And indeed there seem to be a combination of factors in place.

The NYT article conveniently managed to skip a discussion of what's going on in NYC, except to show an un-boarded up Saks. As of Sunday afternoon the side side windows were boarded up, and it looked like preparations were in place for the 5th Ave facade. Bloomingdales was boarded up on Saturday, as were the non-5th Ave sides of Bergdorfs, mens and womens buildings. Several Mad Ave shops above 57th were putting up boards as well over the weekend I overheard a salesperson at Saks say that they would be closing early on Tuesday (maybe only because they want their staff to go vote, but... ?)

I don't think 'unrest' per se is going to kill NYC real estate, as it's transitory, but it is a symptom of structural problems which the city has failed to address, and is unprepared for it getting worse.

Retail in our traditionally sleepy neighborhood in DC (home of the now infamous Comet Pizza) is boarding up as well. I don’t think anything is going to kill urban real estate, but current events are certainly giving it a cyclical jolt.

Lumber prices are insane. I wonder what happens with all the barely-used plywood.

https://gothamist.com/news/manhattan-retailers-condo-residents-fortifying-themselves-ahead-possible-election-unrest

https://pagesix.com/2020/10/31/celeb-packed-apartments-to-be-protected-by-armed-guards-on-election-day/

Not just election day... Twitter says there is a group of protesters yelling "burn it down" making their way to the Trump building by the UN, but blocked by police on Second Ave (and blocking 2nd Ave).

It certainly seems - so far at least - that things are more muted than expected. But we haven't seen worse shenanigans by certain parties than were expected - YET - either.

If violence ensues, my money is that it comes from the right rather than the left. Biden has the votes and the Electoral College (that will become clear in the next few days to anyone who is not dialed into county statistics and up-to-minute counts) as matters stand, but legal challenges need to be heard and FedSoc lawyers are not to be undersestimated. There are still potential “legal”
paths to a 2nd Term for the incumbent. Hopefully agitated parties on both sides will allow the processes to run their courses. I believe my team can hold it in check; less confident in the other team. To my team: Now it is more important than ever to watch for false flags.

And this is for Streetsmart: https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324078979775684608

A bunch of people marching in orderly fashion yelling “burn it down” does not mean the city is actually on fire. I observed protestors tonight in the Village and saw nothing that could be described as rioting.

MCR,
I think it depends on who perceives themselves as the aggrieved party. If DJT or proxies/minions/etc pull some shenanigans (or even win in any way at this point?) then it will be the left. If he/they don't or are thwarted then it will be the right. I'm kind of surprised things haven't started to boil yet so I may be wrong and we see nothing? But it's hard for me to believe he won't resort to his base instincts and do something horrible.

Indeed, when it's people supporting what you support, it's ok, right?

The W Village didn't erupt bc cops shut them down quickly by surrounding them and arresting the whole lot of them. Good for the NYPD.

@George - Where did anybody imply this: "Indeed, when it's people supporting what you support, it's ok, right?"

@30yrs - Yes, I agree both sides are ready to blow in general, but I do not believe there is organization on the left to the extent there is on the right. I think that violence from the left could/would be quashed fairly swiftly; not so sure about violence from the right. This is pure speculation because I have absolutely no idea, but I am thrilled that violence has not erupted and hopeful that it will stay that way.

MCR, my point exactly. You assert that your own side deserves less blame than the other side. Sounds like my 5 year old: "but he hit me harder!"

They are all either loonies or crooks. I don't pay enough attention to the loonies to know if they're far left or far right. I don't care. Lock 'em all up.

George, where did I assert that my side "deserves less blame than the other side?"

Come on George, pull it together - this is the first time I have seen you faltering in online debate. It will be no fun debating you if you let emotion get in the way.

Actually, it probably would be more fun, but that is not a side of myself I am proud of.

"I believe my team can hold it in check; less confident in the other team"

30 also picked up on the implication being made.

I object to your characterization of my words: Perceiving one side as more trigger happy or better prepared than the other does not imply blame. You are projecting your own judgments onto my words.

With respect to 30yrs comments, I do not take the same implication from them that you do.

I think both 30yrs and I have been consistent that we believe both sides are on edge such that the country is in a precarious state.

How long before DJT starts his scorched earth dismantling of the government, judicial system and economy?

As much as my former cronies have disappointed me, I don't see them going for that. Notice how nobody was standing with DJT at his press conference last night? And notice the radio silence from the establishment FedSec republicans? They will exhaust their legal challenges, and they will try to get state legislatures to seat new slates of electors, all of which is legal and their right under existing framework, but I do not think it will work. I think they will have DJT escorted out of the White House by the Secret Service if need be when the time comes. With that said, I am also the chump who never thought Brett Kavanaugh would lie in an official proceeding.

And with respect to that portion of the population that I fear is trigger happy and overly prepared, I know the FBI is all over them. That doesn't mean there might not be a skirmish here and there, but in my heart of hearts, I don't see the country catching fire at this point. Famous last words . . ..

Even FB is finally doing what I view as the "right" thing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-takes-down-group-organizing-protests-of-vote-counting-11604603908

DJT is done. The jig is up.

It's not that I don't thing he'll be out on January 21 (although there is little he could do to try and stop that which would shock me) it's that I think he will try and make it as hard as possible for the incoming administration even if that means doing serious damage to the country. So over the next 75 days I think he'll throw monkey wrenches like firing bunches of Federal employees, signing ludicrous Presidential Orders, etc because if he's not going to be President he wants whoever is next to look bad so he will look better in retrospect.

I also think there is a decent likelihood that he will come out with both dog whistles and perhaps outright calls for violence by his most lunatic fringe supporters and I'm not so sure they won't take him up on the proposition.

Don't forget this is the guy who encouraged his supporters at his campaign rallies to beat up dissenters promising he would pay for their defense.

Sounds like it would be best for the country to keep Trump's hopes high and he fixates himself on silly legal challenges and illusory fraud tweets. Then January 20 comes and he's done.

Will civil unrest kill NY real estate prices? At this moment unrest very unlikely from the election. But unrest from measures in the city budget? I think that depends on trust in the mayor, which is none, or hopefully with the next mayor. It definitely feels like the powder keg is building.

I think the perception of unrest is far greater than the reality.. but as they say, perception is reality.
If you spend anytime outside the 5 boroughs, its the first question on everyone’s mind when you mention you’ve come from the city... still.

COVID related travel restrictions and the fact that we still have very little control of it in this country likely reduces foreign buyers.

A Biden administration having to deal with Mitch also means no bailouts, so prepare for NYC austerity budgets, MTA service cuts and increases in taxes. Those also seem bearish for NYC real estate.

NYC always bounces back, but that doesn’t mean it can’t get worse for a while before it gets better.

As of now, the civil unrest on the Upper West Side is in the form of people ringing cowbells and honking car horns. And the current thinking I'm hearing is that even as the AK and NC senate races get called and we move to a 50R - 48D senate, if the two Georgia races go to runoffs, then McConnell will have to rein himself in a little.

I think it will be a long winter, but I am somewhat optimistic about the spring.

Indeed. My favorite tweet today - “I haven’t seen this much cheering on the UWS since they kicked the homeless out of the Lucerne”

Aren't the homeless still there?

I mean at Lucerne.

So how long until all the pointlessly boarded up stores get the plywood taken off?

Perhaps some feel the danger hasn't passed. Maybe NYPD has some info they aren't widely sharing.

I think they are waiting for another week to see if there is something real about the court challenge process. Thinking may be that you just paid for it. So why not keep it for a few more days.

I think the odds of continued civil unrest is relatively high. If there's another high profile killing by law enforcement - no matter where it happens - there's a group that will come out and try to use peaceful protesters as cover to do violence against property and the NYPD. These types have attempted to use the election to this end, but the law enforcement response was overwhelming. Will be much more difficult if/when the wine-moms and college kids are back in the streets.

As for real estate prices...I think the $50 B City/State budget hole will be a much bigger downward push on prices, and if you couple the resulting QOL issues with undermining law enforcement, you have a different type of product and lifestyle than most are used to, especially those who arrived after Giuliani and are used to a Bloomberg version of the city.

Jas, Are you leaving?

Haven't decided.

My current disposition is that I'd like to visit NYC on very regular basis (galleries! museums! street life! restaurants...not so much), but as for living here, not in the short/medium-term. It's like a constant defensive crouch to insulate against all the daily hassles that existed even pre-COVID, and when I look at the current leadership and the general response by elected officials to large scale and sustained looting ...not impressed. (Happy to own long-term and not selling.)

Glad you are staying. I believe rioting will be much better as rioters have no excuses with Biden in power. A few days back was perfect example that once police is authorized to act, they know how to contain the bad elements.

"I believe rioting will be much better as rioters have no excuses with Biden in power."

Um okay, because all the rioters voted for Biden? Only those on the left were unhappy before the election? Somebody needs to get out more.

oh, oops, I forgot which city chat I was in. New Yorkers have no idea what the rest of the country is like and where the violence is likely to come from. Mercifully the FBI does. To all those who have only lived in other countries and in NYC, I suggest you get to know America by crossing a river or two.

Stop stalking.

I have told you a couple of times before to stop cyber-stalking me.

Here's the great thing: In the United States, women are allowed to speak freely and those who are threatened by that can seek redress in a court of law. I have no idea to whom 300_mercer is speaking, but if he feels somebody is stalking him, by all means, he should hire a lawyer and seek redress. Cyber stalking is not cool. We should all make sure we shut that down.

Here is some free legal advice for anyone who feels they are being stalked: Call the DA or any attorney and make sure to lay the facts out for them, such as I said "X . . ." and this person who is STALKING me responded "Y . . ." Can you believe that? Outrageous. Help me, please!!!!

I am sure all resources will be martialed to make you feel safe. With everyone that is going on in the world, we are all here for you. Seriously, this is outrageous!

Mcr, you are cyber stalking me.

oh, I did not realize you were speaking to me. I was actually trying to help you out. If you interpret my disagreeing with you as cyberstalking, I suggest you not participate in online chat forums. In case you have not noticed, very few on here sympathize or agree with your point of view. a the quarantine is hard on everyone, but broadening each of our horizons is good for each of us.

MCR, Stop referring or answering to what I say. I am not interested in engaging with you.

Does that little flag icon not work anymore?

@30yrs - Right? It looks like somebody is pretty interested in engaging with me otherwise they would just hit “ignore.” I get it that some of us don’t like to be humiliated by others shining a light on our ignorance, but we all are free to ignore or sign off if we find disagreement too threatening to our self esteem.

Again, apologies to all for being short: I will endeavor to be more patient with all posters whenever I sign on next, regardless of how next-level-ignorant or absurd I personally find any comment to be. It is not my place to judge, and I support everyone's right to express their opinions/conclusions. Note, however, that while I will endeavor to be more patient, I am never going to let stand an assertion that I find inflammatory or unfounded. It is not any poster's place to post such a remark and then dictate who is allowed to respond to it.

So, there you have it. Not sure when I will sign on again. I had been off for a few days as it was because some issues in the real world require attention. Streeteasy has historically been a great water cooler break for me, but these days I am too short of patience to be a productive member of this forum. So, best regards to all until whenever, and, in the interim, here is just one article that might enlighten some on the many threats we face internally. The election of Joe Biden is not going to end those threats by a long shot. https://www.wsj.com/articles/extremists-pose-a-violent-threat-fbi-and-dhs-officials-say-11600998139

So when does DJT actually come out and tell them "start shooting"?

Call me crazy but isn't stalking when someone follows another on different forums/websites?

Yes, stache, it is. I barely follow 300_mercer on this website let alone any other. I have concluded that he’s got some real issues that have nothing to do with me, and I ignore him except when he posts something that is inflammatory or not grounded in reality. Apparently he does not like being challenged. His problem, not mine, but he is treading on dangerous territory accusing someone of a crime when there is zero evidence anywhere to support the allegation. Let this be the warning to him; I trust he will cease and desist.

And while I am generally signing off streateasy forum, I am continuing to monitor both this thread and the George Floyd thread to see them through to their conclusions. My patience is at an end.

This behavior reminds me of someone else that is not getting his way and is resorting to fabrications in order to appease his ego.

Yep. Good times. Pretty outrageous. Mercifully I am well equipped to defend myself. I am less confident in our system’s ability to sustain, but I plan on continuing to do my part, which includes calling out those who spread falsehoods or parrot tropes not grounded in fact.

I must have missed something, bc this all seems like garden variety political debate that ended as arguments on the internet often do.

Fwiw, I agree that just having Biden in the White House isn't going to make anyone appeased. While it is true that it wasn't Trump voters rioting in NYC (since there are no Trump voters here), people may be even more emboldened to riot with Dems up and down the chain of command and their lots not improving. The fiscal pain of the pandemic is yet to come, and it won't really fall on the rich since we can move easily.

George - What you apparently missed is 300_mercer’s accusing me of cyber-stalking him because I had the audacity to call out the absurdity of a comment he made. Not cool. When someone disagrees with you, you don’t accuse them of stalking, particularly not in the manner that 300_mercer made the accusation against me, implying that there were additional facts beyond what everyone on here can see. Again, not cool. I have been patient with him, but he has crossed a line here that he would be well advised to retreat from. I trust he will not do so again; he has been warned.

Mcr, I have told you several times that I do not want to engage with you. Why the focus on me? There are plenty of people on WSJ etc who will make comments different from your political ideology. I will leave it here.

300_mercer - I have no focus on you; only what you say in discussion. You seem to be so focused on yourself that you miss the fact that I push back on every falsehood and inflammatory comment that comes up in these discussions. You are not special. You do not get to say stupid things on the Internet without any push back. You have now made clear to everyone on here what you are, and if you have any doubts, I suggest you go back and read the earlier George Floyd thread where a number of posts critical of your racism showed up after much delay. I am going to call out the likes of you everywhere you cross my path.

MCR, I am the only one who told you several times that I do not want to engage with you. There are plenty of people on WSJ for you to disagree with who will engage with you. Try converting them. I sign off here.

Bye 300_mercer. You don’t get to decide who responds to you in a public discussion. If you don’t want push back, keep your thoughts to yourself.

Bye is what I want and told you several times that I do not want to engage with you.

Anyway, how 'bout them Mets?

And yet has everyone noticed that 300_mercer continues to engage me? Go back to how this started - I commented on what he said and then he went out of his way to engage me personally.

@George - Forget about the Mets; how about Marlins new hire?

Unfortunately it appears the declines in NYC real estate asset values is wearing on people’s minds, causing them to lash out. Based on continued asset pricing trajectory, I project tempers will grow ever shorter.

@ToRenoOrNot - That was funny. What has me personally short-tempered has nothing to do with NYC or real estate but rather some old friends in current positions of power who are willfully misleading the public. But, on a happy karma note, another of my old cronies who was in a different kind of position of influence (Fox News Anchor) has recently parted ways with Fox News after alleging discrimination based on gender. It is too awesome because this is a woman who changed her whole physical appearance to try to resemble Barbi and for years has denied that discrimination based on gender was a thing. Poetic justice. A bit like a person of color who denies denying systemic racism for decades and then suddenly asks for sympathy when they themselves are finally mistreated on a routine traffic stop for no reason other than the color of their skin.

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900762/tony-blair-concerned-future/

On the topic of civil unrest, please do not be naive that it is over. It is in the wings and waiting. Hopefully we get a federal response that matches the need, because we're in a combustible environment and living in the epicenter of wealth inequality.

The one action we've taken is to have a locksmith review all of our locks and reinforce where there are weaknesses. You'd be surprised at how easy it is to break into your average NYC apartment. And your doorman will not be able to help when the mob rushes past them.

Years ago a locksmith told me the criminal goes for the easiest apartment to be broken into. If it reaches the point that my building is invaded I figure everything is over anyway and I will be standing by with my crowbar.
On a side note, the /ignore function is a great tool and I would hate to see multi leave. She can get carried away, which she freely admits but she adds great flavor to our forum.

Who do you think is going to break into your apartment? Is there been any precedent for this based on what has happened over the summer? Civil unrest seemed to be very much focused on commercial storefronts.

I remember a few news stories about protestors attempting to enter residential buildings here in NYC.

The commercial storefronts in my neighborhood all have residences above them. Like in Soho. Do not think that the same people who will bust into a commercial space (repeatedly!) wouldn't also opportunistically go into a residence. Civil unrest is one category of crime, and then there are the opportunistic criminals. Two different groups who sometimes melt into one another. I'm not indulging in any sort of magical thinking (sorry 300) that somehow the violence and damage that is being tolerated in our city goes away because Biden won. Very difficult to put it back into the bottle once it has been unleashed.

It's going to be interesting to see how Soho moves forward as a neighborhood. Time to rewatch After Hours?

@stache-thx; I’ll be back on a regular basis in a bit. And when I am back, I will endeavor to tread more lightly when I come across a comment by any poster that strikes me as . . . less than astute.

But on the greater point of civil unrest, my inner circle is distressed at all those who think our national nightmare is over. Not by a long shot, regardless of whether the transition ultimately goes more smoothly than it is going right now.

30, will need to watch After Hours for the first time. Adding to my watch list.

No idea where Soho is headed but plenty would like to see it go UP.

They're going to need a lot of balloons.
https://youtu.be/ffrPb4kG20I

Lol. And a lot of screaming YIMBYs.

For many years I parked at the lot on the NorthEast corner of Lafayette and Great Jones. If the Soho/Noho Rezoning goes through I wonder how many seconds before they file their redevelopment plans.

Know that lot well. Some would say that is the driving reason for the entire rezone, but there's a lot of hysteria on the subject, as one would expect.

jas, it's a wonderful movie. Really sums up the essence of NYC especially during that time frame.

That lot lost over half its capacity not too long ago after a serious injury related to the car stacking equipment.

Call me crazy, I loved New York City in the 80's...

When I read all the comments about people being afraid and leaving New York because of crime ticking up, I can only think these are definitely the people that moved in during the post-Bloomberg years. This is what I think of as the suburbanization period of the city.

In the seventies and rough and tumble eighties, this city was still very diverse, certainly much more interesting, yet still had enclaves of people with significant wealth and everything in between. They didn't all get up and move because the subways were covered in graffiti, schools questionable at best and crime stats were significantly higher than in the suburbs. These were New Yorkers, people like my in-laws who'd been living here since the fifties along with all their friends and acquaintances that would never consider leaving. It's the same way I felt about the city after I moved here in early 1982, it took some grit, but it was a magical place to live. Now all it takes to live here is a lot of money... Can you imagine when I moved here in 1982, I had half a floor on E 6th st for about 250 a month, and worked making pizzas on 14th Street and 3rd avenue. And I lived quite comfortably doing just what I dreamed about doing. No trust fund needed.

That said, I still work with, meet and know plenty of people that are still invested in New York City, and aren't going to run because of a story in the New York Post about somebody getting shot. The city's not for everybody, but it's always been a magical place to live, a place people have written books about, songs about and millions have dreamed about living in.

From what all you finance people are saying, it sounds like the great migration that took place post Giuliani might be the undoing of us. The great boom in development and population might not be sustainable under the current duress. I think more than anything we need a competent and capable leader in the State House and in the city to get us through this next chapter.

For an interesting read on the Koch era, check out"City for sale".

I worked in a building near the corner of Crosby Street and Howard when After Hours was being filmed. Got soaked in a fake rainstorm and got really pissed at the crew. Little did I know that they were shooting a future favorite film, and sure didn't think the area was crime ridden and dangerous.

flarf,
When I started parking there they had none of those stackers and by the time I left only a handful of the 2 cars one's and those made me nervous. I hadn't heard anything about an accident. By the time I left they were charging about $200 monthly.

Keith,
Koch era political joke:
What do Rock Hudson and Donald Manes have in common?
(I won't be posting the answer so you'll have to look it up)

Ha! I forgot about that joke. it's a little racy but it could be posted here. Though these days many people have lost their sense of humor. Don Rickles wouldn't have a career these days!

They've had five-level stackers for years, but nothing goes above the second level now. Prices are about 3x higher since you left.

They both made hearts throb.

Keith: I'm Giuliani-era NYer married to a fourth generation Manhattan native, attempting to raise the 5th. It may be that we know too much! When spouse talks about 80s era downtown Manhattan we might as well be a different planet. I just keep coming back to the fact that we're living through a period of historic wealth inequality, and this is the epicenter of it all. Has its pros and cons, doesn't it?

I think wealth inequality is a very complicated subject. Certainly not one I would want to tackle on a streeteasy forum. I save that discussion for friends and family...

Meanwhile, in front of Pennsylvania Station

https://nypost.com/2020/11/22/man-stabbed-in-nyc-hours-after-two-other-nearby-knife-attacks/

At some point, NYers are going to wake up to the state of public safety and readjust their view that its all part and parcel of city living. Like the guy pulled over with a car arsenal in the Bronx? Out on bail. A guy was slashed in the face at High St stop in Brooklyn Heights this weekend. Seemed like normal guy traveling at prime travel time. We've let the genie out of the bottle, and will not be easy in this political climate, with this set of leaders, to stop the violence from getting worse. Just one seasoned NYers opinion!