Does Manhattan real estate not appreciate anymore?

Some of you may find this article interesting, especially the comments on buying versus renting.

https://housingnotes.com/wednesday-housings-problem-as-a-sport-without-play/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=wednesday-housings-problem-as-a-sport-without-play

To add to the middle-class tale of woe, I'll add 50 E 79th, 14D: 2 BR 2 BA, last sale October 2017 for either 2,125,000 or $2,300,000. Current ask: 2,295,000.

The Bloomberg OddLots podcast had a recent episode on the very high end global real estate market. The tl;dr: It is totally unmoored from financial reality. The decision making seems to be mostly about 'comparing schnitzels', as they euphemized.

The market for very high end global real estate market is like the market for fine art. Practical real estate financial analysis is not part of the equation for determining price.

My SE feed of possible upgrade apts is just full of UES units w/ no price appreciation. The most recent: 300 E 64th St, #24A: 2BR 2BA
Last sale: Feb/Mar 2016: $2,195,000. Current ask: $2,195,000. On the market for 274 days.

300 East 64th - kitchen and bath are dated enough that they need to be redone soon enough (even the toilet is crooked), floors are not attractive and should be replaced. The living room is too crowded with the sofa and entertainment, kitchen table (awful), and office / desk all in that small space - someone should have decluttered before photos and showing. No laundry which is wholly unacceptable today. Low ceiling heights, corner columns, PTAC units, building built in the mid 90s in a bad market. Dumb pricing strategy, listed last August they should have known better and after 2 months the first price chop should have a full 10%.

I missed the washer & dryer.

I'm going to be bringing a UES one-bedroom to market later this year -- the seller is someone who bought to be close to work (Sinai) and then got a higher-paying job somewhere else a few years later.

If the market doesn't change, then the investment in a co-op asset (which, FWIW, I wasn't the buyer's broker on) is going to look like it was a bad idea.

But the investment in "housing near work, to be able to better concentrate on work" seems to have turned out well overall.

Hi everyone. Really great conversation here as I get educated as a new potential buyer. It appears that I'm going to be in NYC for a long time (work in midtown) and am considering buying a 1 bedroom Co-Op on Grand street in LES. I'm getting a 30yr mortage right now slightly above 7%. It's not in the middle of the all the "cool" stuff so hoping there's some HPA there as the area develops. I'm trying to get my head wrapped around the economics vs. the qualitative considerations.

Ultimately, is it really just a comparison of the return of my down payment (HPA) vs. the opportunity cost of a portfolio return (stocks/bonds) over let's say 20-30 years? My desire to purchase really is because I don't see wages keeping up with rent increases so will I have to eventually keep moving further out when my life revolves around living in Manhattan?

When I run the math including transaction costs (entry & exit) and basically using some of my portfolio returns to subsidize my rental payments, I keep getting a breakeven outcome. As in, I could buy or rent from a quant perspective. So why give away the flexbility?

I'd appreciate any insight or advice. Obviously, biggest financial decision of my life so trying to be eyes wide open here. Thank you in advance.

Anyone care to estimate price appreciation on this unit 10 years from now?

https://streeteasy.com/building/237-east-17-street-new_york/520?placement=&utm_campaign=Consumer_Update_Saved_Search_Instant&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Iterable

The only logical buyer for that apartment is an owner underneath, who would combine units. If that owner doesn't want to buy it, including especially if they can't afford to buy it, then you shouldn't either.