Condo Sales Likely to Drop 75% to 80%?
Started by Topper
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Discussion about
Does this article in New York Magazine make sense? Does the chart point really mean condo sales are likely to drop sharply because of the difference between new contracts and sales? http://nymag.com/realestate/features/48912/ Thanks for your thoughts.
Topper, I take anything Robledo posts with a heavy grain of salt. She tends to use flimsy/bad data and draws questionable conclusions from them. See the article she posted on "prime Brooklyn" recently (there's a thread on this here from a week or two ago as well), where she cited Streeteasy data on townhouses in Brooklyn dropping prices. I checked the data here, found a small sample size (55 total), with the majority of townhouses in areas like Clinton Hill, Bed-Stuy, Crown Heights, East New York, etc. As for this piece, she does state that she isn't working with a lot of data (it's not available), and while the logic isn't necessarily bad, I'd say it's sloppy to report this with so little to go on. Condo sales are dropping, but what this means for the future (near or otherwise) is unclear. Just my .02.
As noted in the comments there, enough data is provided that the drop suggested by the author should already be witnessed to some extent (assuming average contract to close of less than 6 months).
I have to agree with bjw2103. I've heard from people in the industry that NY Magazine is known for sloppy reporting. I actually know someone who was quoted in an article written by Robledo; the 'interview' was rushed because the writer had to get the story in that day. And the quote was taken out of context.
Thanks for comments, folks.