is this the bottom? Let's hope right guys!!

Good grief. Bottom? Who the hell knows? If you listen to Cramer he has called a bottom four times.

I would like to take this time to say no comment.

I think this week's news ensured that - even in the national market - the bottom got pushed at least a few months further back. Credit isn't going to get any easier this week.

The stock market is all about *expectations* of future news. Credit is an issue - yawn. If the news turns out to be bad, but not as bad as expected, the stock market will react positively. Judging by everybody's current expectations, I can't imagine actual news being much worse, so I think we're nearing a bottom.

Historically, the stock market hits a bottom when the recession is only half over.

well thats great news because we're not yet in a recession unless it just began this quarter. so that says if we are in a recession, its over by year end.

CNBC says Fed circle jerking over throwing help at AIG. If they just relaxed the mark to market rules on a temprary basis this all goes away.

I agree that the stock market might very well go up... because it is down 27% already.

But I'm not sure how that applies to NYC real estate. The new factors are not yet priced in.... Manhattan prices are already down 6-7% pre-news, and I can only imagine what September numbers will look like...

> so that says if we are in a recession, its over by year end.

What says that?

nope.

"If they just relaxed the mark to market rules on a temporary basis this all goes away."

While in the short term there might be some relief, you actually you prolong it since as house prices continue to drop and you don't mark your positions to market, the discrepancy widens between what the position really is and what you think it is (due to not having to MTM)...and then it basically catches up to you at some point when you think your position is worth 100 cents on the dollar and everyone laughs you out of the room (see Lehman...they had their MBS portfolio only marked down 85 cents on the dollar in some cases)...

Had no problem Marking to Market on the way up, time to take the pain on the way down

Good grief.

Here we go again... the monkeys are back.

Monkeys are just infatuated with picking bottoms.

These are the same monkeys who said there was no housing bubble. Then they said that there would be a soft landing. Now they're calling bottoms every couple of months or so.

LMAO. Don't be a lemming and listen to these monkeys.

steve pulled out of stocks last week - sure sign of capitulation.. aig bailed out.. lehman partially saved by barclay's.. market is going back up

> lehman partially saved by barclay's

That's called picking at the bones.

But I do think we might be heading up...

"Manhattan prices are already down 6-7% pre-news,"

nyc10022, how many threads can you post this on? Didn't that figure include apartments in Harlem that were not previously counted? Anyway, to use one of steve's favorite lines, "it's most likely a mix issue"

> nyc10022, how many threads can you post this on?

Any one where relevant.

> Didn't that figure include apartments in Harlem that were not previously counted?

No, you're thinking of the observer rental stat, which had the Harlem factor.
This one is apples to apples...

> Anyway, to use one of steve's favorite lines, "it's most likely a mix issue"

Well, if nobody bought that one on the way up, then not sure why you'd expect 'em to do it on the way down. But, if anything, the "mix" showing a lot less higher $$ apartment sales.... well, thats not exactly good news, is it?

And, as I pointed out, that is only throught August. Gotta see what the numbers will look like post this weekend...

"But, if anything, the "mix" showing a lot less higher $$ apartment sales.... well, thats not exactly good news, is it?"

So is it a mix issue or not?

I figure some mix, and some actual decline...

For me, the telling number was the 40% drop in co-op sales. Whoever can sell, sold for less... but the bigger issue is that a lot of folks just couldn't sell. When sales do pop up, it will be at much lower prices.

Which, of course, might mean that we've actually been declining all year, just covered up by the mix...

Thousands of jobs will be saved...

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLsMT_psdKqk&refer=home

No it's not the bottom. There are others to work through - WaMu, Wachovia.

I thought I'd bail everything today, but didn't. Still bailing real estate, riskier assets. They will sink a time or two more, then if I think it's right I'll buy back in.

Don't discount Dow 9,000. When WaMu fails, that's where we'll be.