Guess what everyone? Prices are still above 4Q:2006 levels...

After the 1987 stock market crash, it took 2 years to affect the real estate market.

I see lots of predictions of doom from all the people that missed the real estate boom, but no evidence. Please, someone show me ONE apartment that is selling for less than it did in 4Q:2006.

kspeak, I suppose your comment is based on extensive research and analysis, right? Imbecile.

the panic didn't even touch Q3 numbers.... so its tought to talk about where sales prices are without Q4 numbers.

That being said, if you are talking about ASKING prices, well, there are many below Q4 levels already. Hell, the Plaza already had an apartment sell for a loss.

I agree with both...it's going to take more than 3 months of gloom to change people's perception. I owned property in florida and sold in '05...there were people who until recently would not lower their price because they wanted '05 prices. Someone I know just sold at less than what he paid for it in '04 because he finally realized it's over. That took him three years.

Not even going to comment beyond saying, if you believe in Kool-Aid, drink it.

lots of imbeciles on this site stewing in their own poverty

There needs to be a NYC realestate index to start shorting.

anonymouss, can you please site your source?

You have to compare closing prices to get true figures, and there is a lag btw when apts go into contract and when they close (esp w coops).

Asking prices are an indicator, but there's a chance some places are underpriced to promote bidding wars (I know it seems unlikely today but it's important to compare apples to apples).

Look at ANY building. That's my source.

Already a bunch of imbeciles in this discussion and NOT one has met my challenge. SHOW ME ONE APT!

Don't feed the troll. There's a 300-plus post thread with abundant examples.

Not a single example. Not a one. West 81st...imbecile.

There's a lot of poor people on this site, wishing and praying they could live the NY life they want.

>>> kspeak, I suppose your comment is based on extensive research and analysis, right? Imbecile

Wow, a lot of anger issues.

Actually, just historical data. I also am not making any conclusions from that - not saying it definitely applies to today. Just pointing out that historically real estate markets lag the economy, and that even if you are right that an example cannot be found (although can be found) MAY not mean anything yet if history is guide.

denial is not just a river in Egypt. anonymouss, there is a large discussion on comps and many examples of units listed for less than the last sale price in that thread. keep in mind that up until last year there was never a nationwide year on year decline in home prices. this is largely due to the fact the people who were underwater on their house chose not to sell. they just kept living there.

so many of the purchases in the last 2 or 3 years were speculative flippers who never intended to live in the house and never intended to be landlords. They had another residence where they lived. They cannot simply just live in the flipper unit and not sell. This is where the panic comes from.

it takes time to move though the stages of grief. from denial (prices are not going down), to anger (buyers are stupid or our broker s*cks), to guilt (maybe I should have sold when I had the chance), to bargaining (if only someone bids within 5% of my ask I will sell), to depression ( no one cars about my apartment) to aceptance ( I will lower the price until it sells). but eventaully all have to go through it.

> There's a lot of poor people on this site, wishing and praying they could live the NY life they want.

Yes, I wish I could live the life of a leverage condo owner in this market...

I'll play. Here's one. You can respond with your irrational reasoning now, why this is so different and doesnt apply to your challenge:

ASKING NOW $1,025M
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/357797-condo-1641-third-avenue-yorkville-new-york

CLOSED 9/2006 for $975,000
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/5671

Clearly the chances are VERY HIGH that this unit that is 4 floors higher and should demand a bit of a premium for that, will close for less than 31K did 2 years ago.

besides, do you even take into account transaction costs for these condo purchases on buy or sell side? The buyer of 31K likely paid about $40,000 in closing costs to buy the unit. When they sell, they will have to pay about 6-8% of the selling price in fees/commissions/transfer taxes/atty fees/mgmt fees/etc..

If your point is to prove that real estate is ALWAYS a great investment, you cannot discount the costs to buy and sell!

Me too. The reason I haven't bought a place is because I can't afford it. Specifically, I really wish I'd paid $850k for a 1 BR with granite countertops in one of those glass towers in either Harlem, LES, the Financial District, or Long Island City. I know I couldn't get those places for less than $1.2 million now. But, I just didn't have the money to buy the $800k 1BR and an up-and-coming neighborhood then.

Urbandigs...Am I reading correctly but did you show me an apt that is asking now 50K higher than it did 2 years ago? Are you kidding me? And in 2005 it sold for $850K...so this is the bust?

Can anyone bring an example or just a STRETCH like Mr. Urbandigs?

Imbeciles!

Troll food:

418 Central Park West #22. Just sold 13% below its 2005 price:
--------Recorded Sales----------|--------Previous Listings----------
10/10/2008 #22 $860,000 -4.3% | ↓$899,000 2 beds 1 baths 850 ft²
05/26/2005 #22 $975,000 ......... |

Does anyone think the market dropped between early 2005 and Q4 2006?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/418-central-park-west-manhattan

you can get a 2br 2bth bargaining in the financial district now - why would anyone spend that amount of money on a 1 br?

See everyone! This is the best the resident expert can do! The imbecile-in-chief!

anonymouss is obviously just trying to rile some people up here. There are DEFINITELY apts selling for lower prices than a year or two ago. The real question is with what frequency? You can always find instances where this is true (even during a bubble), for a multitude of reasons - seller overpaid, needs to unload urgently, etc. I think we're starting to see a move towards price declines, but we're not quite there yet.

So SHOW ME ONE!!!!

hahahahhaha, I forgot asking prices are as good as selling prices in todays market MY BAD!

...lets talk in 12 months

Real estate acts with a very long lag. That is investing 101. During Japan's bubble, real estate peaked 2 years after the Nikkei (1991) and is STILL far below 1991 levels. We may not see 2006/07 price levels again for 20 years.

More PREDICTIONS....

This weekend, restaurants will be full, clubs will be full. Girls will be weeding out guys on the basis of where they live. People will look at the new condos with envy. There's no panic in the streets.

and santa claus is coming to town!

So you'd rather own a new condo than rent the same apartment and invest in the highly depressed stock market? Selling shares at a steep discount in order to purchase real estate is crazy. Taking on leverage to buy into a depreciating market is even dumber. If you own an apartment and can afford to your monthly payments, then great, hold onto it for ten years at least. But if you bought in the last five years it will prove to be a terrible investment.

please show me examples....evidence not wishes...

You've been shown examples.

Oh, Julia, yay! Have you come around?

Why is it that some people have to insult everyone? People are just expressing opinions. If you don't like them, politely reply but keep your insults to yourself.

I used to enjoy the StreetEasy blogs but am beginning to get a little (a lot actually) tired of the contentious bickering and name calling. There are a lot of smart people on this site with interesting opinions (with various levels of usefulness).

Nobody is getting paid to post here or claiming to be a professional real estate analyst so if you make your decisions solely upon statistics/statements offered up here, it’s your mistake. We can read the news, exchange ideas, study the markets and make our own decisions without slamming each other. Right?

Of course if you are looking for 100% accuracy, just call your broker… (sorry – that was uncalled for!)

anonymouss, why are you so desperate? your posts reek with fear; lick your wounds, go home; sometimes the party really is over

Check out 45 Christopher Street: http://www.djkresidential.com/listing_view.aspx?WebID=379632

Streeteasy still has it at 2.995 but it has been reduced a further 400k according to the website. This apartment is a very rare 3 bedroom in the prime village, in a doorman building, in mint condition, with empire state views. Went on the market for 3.995m in May.

I sold my one bedroom in another Bing and Bing in the prime village 18 months ago for an obscene price, and now rent a two bedroom in the neighborhood. If a 3 bedroom, doorman, prewar, open view apartment in the village is now asking $2.6m, the entire village is in for a major correction.

anonymouss = steveF?

lo888, totally agree. The back and forth can be in good fun once in a while, but recently, it's been on a completely different level here. There's actually an interesting article about this in the WSJ today. Lots of people wishing harm on developers, owners, etc. have come out of the woodwork to vent their frustrations on RE blogs/boards, so maybe it's not surprising that some have found their way here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122481699525965769.html

Ooof - you know it's bad when the Bing & Bing and Emery Roth buildings are cutting. The prices are obscene - check out 59 West 12th for some crazy asking price on a 500sqft studio.

actually if you look at the two boards anonymous started, sort of strange that SteveF hasn't commented on either. why? because they are one and the same person

"Girls will be weeding out guys on the basis of where they live."

You're attracted to gold diggers? That's even sadder than the diggers themselves. I do own, but if a girl asked me that in our first conversation, it'll be our last conversation.

happyrenter great move! congrats.

anonymouss: your disrespect for West81st is disturbing. why cannot you just simply disagree without insulting? it might take practice to be more open minded, but it's a good investment.

I thought "imbecile-in-chief" was an honorific. The Europeans have been calling our President that (and worse) for at least five years. "Resident expert", on the other hand... them's fightin' words.

anonymouss = petrfitz.

Anonymouss: aren't you late for a tanning salon appointment? And don't forget the Lexus lease payment. One last thing: your Glamour Shots appointment has been pushed back to next Tuesday. You should let Gristede's know that your shopping-cart-photo ad buy will be delayed.

anonymouss: why can't you make your point without engaging in name-calling? Calling those who disagree with you imbeciles reflects only on you, not them, and it is not a pretty reflection. This leads me to conclude that your posts are driven by anger and hate and that you are unable to articluate thoughts in sensible, rational way. Please stay silent until you can present your views in a civilized manner.

"Gazing up into the darkness I saw myself as a creature driven and derided by vanity, and my eyes burned with anguish and anger."

Check out 136 E 64th - Apt 10-F: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/136-east-64-street-manhattan

It is currently listed at $1,295,000:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/353217-136-east-64th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

It was previously listed at 1,575,000 on May 7, 2008:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/232077-coop-136-east-64th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

The apartment sold for $1,300,000 on July 6, 2005.

So current listing is $5,000 below 2005 sales price - and what are the chances it will sell at asking?

I think steve has it right. anonymouss is petrfitz. Hey anonymouss, how many software companies have you owned? :-)

Hey people! I said 4Q:2006...not the bubble summer of 2005. My point is prices are still at their all time high!!!!

NYC real estate remains the best investments...ahead of gold, stocks, cash, ect.

so now there was a "bubble" in the "summer of 2005"? go ahead and step out on the plank son.

I take that back. As dumb as petrfitz is, he wasn't *that* dumb as to utter what anonymouss most recently posted.

anonymouss: If "prices are still at their all-time high", it shouldn't make any difference whether the prior sale was in 2005 or 2006. If your point is that Q4 2006 was the top of the market, then an apartment selling below its 2005 price is MORE persuasive, not less.

What exactly are you looking for? An apartment on the market today (or perhaps recently closed) with priced below the value at which it closed in October-December 2006? What's so special about those months that sets them apart from Q3 2006 or Q1 2007, or any part of 2005 for that matter? Why should anyone waste time looking for an example that exactly matches your parameters, other than to make you crawl back into your hole?

Ha, this is getting funny. We're running out of rationalizations...

> My point is prices are still at their all time high!!!!

How can prived be at their all time high if they are lower now than before?

Not so keen on the math thing, I guess...

"My point is prices are still at their all time high!!!!"

So your recommendation, sneaky, is to invest at an all-time high?

Good advice!

Please - do not feed the trolls.

So many of you are riled up when I speak the truth. Just face facts: Your NY living dreams will never be realized!!!!

How do we end this post?

"How do we end this post?"

I vote we all just agree with anonymouss. I'll start: You're right anonymouss! NYC real estate is never going down, the best time to buy is now, and that's what I'll be doing this weekend. Thanks for the advice!

lo888: With silence.

Not a single poster agrees with me then? Is the issue so clear to all?

(not saying anything)

- not nyc10022

"Your NY living dreams will never be realized!!!!"

Absolutely not. LIVE IN MANHATTAN FOR HALF THE COST!

RENT! RENT! RENT!

- The End.

it is in poor taste to call people imbeciles...if you feel you are correct why not let history prove you right...no need to get angry and attack...it only shows how desperate you are.

By the way, you should not assume that everyone who believes that Manhattan real estate will go down is poor...that just isn't true

Anyone who uses "poor" as an insult is poor themselves. I've never heard of Bill Gates laughing at beggars on the street. I'm positive Warren Buffet doesn't loathe the lower class. That level of hatred for a mostly uncontrollable trait can only come from those who have severe self confidence issues, and take it out on others. See also, gay-bashing closet homosexuals - exact same concept at work here.

300 West End Avenue, Apartment 5A

STREETEASY HISTORY
10/23/2006
Previous sale closed for $5,562,500
04/11/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $6,950,000
07/10/2008
Price decreased to $5,975,000
10/22/2008
Price decreased to $5,475,000

This is actually one half of the full-floor apartment previously owned by Harry Belafonte. The whole floor is also available for $10.95 million. Abigail Disney (yes, of the Disneys) is trying to unload it.

Wow, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. Pick a building, any building (only slight hyperbole) and there are comparable units available for less than closings in 06--not counting frictional costs, obviously.

30 Beekman Place 10D
STREETEASY HISTORY
09/30/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,495,000
10/14/2008
Price decreased to $1,270,000

Recorded Sale:
05/12/2006 #4D $1,300,000

And here's a great one--it seems nearly ALL the apartments in this line have sold for more than the current listing is asking. And they are on lower floors.

317 Eat 18th #4C
STREETEASY HISTORY
05/29/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Bellmarc at $585,000
06/11/2008
Price decreased to $569,000
08/26/2008
Price decreased to $559,000
09/09/2008
Price decreased to $549,500
09/17/2008
Price decreased to $525,500
09/25/2008
Price decreased to $519,000
09/28/2008
Price decreased to $499,000
10/09/2008
Price decreased to $450,000

Recorded sales:

01/19/2006 #2C $510,000
5/03/2006 #1C $485,000 (Yes, that's correct. A 1st floor unit in the same line sold for more than this now asks. In 2006.)
05/31/2007 #5C $515,000

For some icing on the cake, another unit in the same building.

317 East 18th 6B
09/30/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Bellmarc at $285,000
10/09/2008
Price decreased to $250,000

Recorded Sales:
02/22/2008 #5B $310,000 +8.8%

RENT! RENT! RENT!

well, that might be a solution for the short term

but really, think where you'd be in real estate if you bought in 1995 or in 1998 or 2003, or even going back to 1987 or 1974.

Always better to put some of your money in your own real estate.

Renting is good medium term or short term only. Clearly also, not stable family can be renting unless it is rent controlled.

Timmy, that comment only makes sense if you consider alternative uses of capital. If my choice was between owning since 1974 or pissing the money away on drugs and booze, then yes, I would have done better owning. If my choice was between owning and investing in equities, it's not clear owning would have put me ahead.

There is nothing wrong with owning, it often makes sense. But the silly notion that it is always financially advantageous to own should have disappeared some time in the last two years of epic real estate collapse. These are financial decisions. When it is cheaper to own, you should own. When it is cheaper to rent, you should rent.

Beware anyone saying "always..."

HEY ANONASS -

245 E 93rd

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/72009
753 sft SOLD FOR $630,000 NOV 2006

Now look at this unit:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348549-condo-245-east-93rd-street-yorkville-new-york
773 (20 sft LARGER), ASKING $619,000

So, the asking price is now 11,000 LOWER than a smaller unit that sold in 2006! And thats asking price! It will prob sell for 575K or around there. Maybe less.

HOW MANY MORE DO YOU NEED TO WAKE THE F**K UP????

ud, relax... the guy is clearly a troll. Anyone who actually wanted the info would have seen the 100 other examples on the site, including a thread on exactly that...

ehh, couldnt resist

thanks to all for proving once again that ny real estate is the BEST investment out there!

Interesting article on national housing situation.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/a_turn_in_the_housing_market.html

So you agree with the crack about Mr. Obama, Will? There was a time he wouldn't have been my kind of Democrat, but times change.

Well I think Sen. Obama would support a little bit of optimism. What's good for America is good for Manhattan.

Obama is bad for NYC..and the whole country.