The Future: New York in 2010

reads like a suicide note....you left out the goodbye at the end

You do realize that 2010 is only 14 months away, right? This is a bit extremist, to say the least. I don't see a massive return of the artistic community away from areas outside Manhattan where it's already established. Besides, there's plenty of art in Manhattan itself.

i agree with HimWhoKnows. Violent crime will be out of control in NYC by 2010. As revenues dry up due to the financial meltdown, the city will be forced to cut the police budget, and consequently, crime will go up.

I could write a post about how we will all be flying around in space ships like the Jetsons in NYC in 2010 and it would have as much basis in facts and logic as what you posted. I guess I don't get your point?

Are you posting something so somber and extreme so people can tell you how smart and proephetic you are and how they agree with you? It's well written yes, but believable enough to be a point of discussion? Not so much.

Just my two cents....

Don't forget all of the families who over the past 10 years have concluded that Manhattan is a great place to raise kids. Once they begin to feel the depreciating quality of life, they will be desperate to sell to move to the suburbs. This will further drive down prices in Manhattan, as well as drive up prices in the suburbs as people realize what they could have purchased in the burbs for the price of a 1.2 million dollar 1 bedroom in Manhattan.
The only hope for NYC is another 4 years of Bloomberg. If he gets another term, I believe he can at least keep the city from falling apart over the next four years, and he will do what he can to stimulate NYC's other main stream of revenue, tourism. If Bloomy is not in office, and instead we got some political hack like Quinn, or Weiner, watch out below.

HWK, you forgot to mention the radio active waste dump to be constructed in central park,the pedophilia petting zoo in Time Square, and MSG's plans to become worlds largest crack house.

mh23, you're absolutely correct. Quality of life is deteriorating rapidly, and families and young professionals will move out of the city in droves.

I am scared of what might happen... NYC might then look like Chicago. Well, Chicago before things got EVEN worse.

quick, catch the last train to chicago!!!

Sheesh Rufus I didn't know you were a criminologist and politician as well. Oh and you must run the budget for the NYPD eh? All from the basement of your house in Hammond?

"Quality of life is deteriorating rapidly, and families and young professionals will move out of the city in droves."

this is not necessarily true, as for those families with non wall street salaries enjoying the city will be more affordable.

Sizzlack, i'm not a criminologist, but unlike you guys, i understand the direct relationship between an economic downturn and rise in crime.

Do you? Explain away....

What happens to NYC when the Huns cross the Danube and enter the Eternal City?

Truth be told the fast money leaving New York is a good thing. The truly rich aren't going anywhere, in fact they're coming here. The guys with the debt and the margin calls who are going. Maybe we can get this town back to being a place of ideas, new thinking and other types of intellectual pursuits rather than a feeding trough for the wannabe new money set.

Send all the pork bellies (and faux-artistes) back to Chicago

Yes obviously cutting the Police budget would indeed lead to increased crime...but can you please direct me to some proof that the NYPD budget is about to be cut significantly, without simply saying it will because you say so.

"the pedophilia petting zoo in Time Square"

I almost choked on my lunch, JuiceMan. Quite the image!

My favorite observation was "...Return of culture and arts community..."

As if it left? As if there has been no culture (or financial support of it) in NYC for the past ten years?

It is so tiring to see how easy it is for rufus or himwhoknows to just keep baiting you guys into any discussion they choose to start or add to with extreme statements. They are Lucy pulling away the football and y'all are like Charlie Brown falling for it every single time. Are you honestly debating violent crime going berserk in the next 14 months or whether there are cultural activities in NYC? Another perfect example of the increasing pointlessness of the RE forum. You all let it be hi-jacked by these guys by constantly responding to them and cluttering the discussions with such crap that it isn't even worth sorting through it all to find the serious discussions anymore. I don't even care about rufus and himwhoknows and whoever else that starts these threads anymore. It's all of you who keep responding to them and keeping the stupid threads from just getting knocked off the screen in an hour for lack of activity.

kylewest - amen

ditto, kylewest... I'm trying harder to just ignore the trolls...

nyc10022, you're kidding, right? You've been unable to help yourself as much as anyone.

BJW, are you the troll police? The board ethics patroller?

I said I'm trying...

No, this is the troll police:
http://www.kookykitsch.com/kookykitsch/images/policetrollpuppet.jpg

nyc10022, try harder. So far you have been failing miserably. ;.)

Why a 1 BR should be more than 300K is just an illusion. In a multi-polar world, where NY no longer remains the world's financial capital this seems very justified. Yes there is a law of supply/demand, but in all reality it none more than wood, cement, and paint in the end.
Buying 500 square feet of wood, cement and paint in a city quickly deaccelerating seems outrageous. In 2010 people will be scratching their heads as to how this ever occurred in the first place.

HimWhoKnows, seems fairly reasonable. As I've mentioned before, it's tough to believe that a pocket of air space in a city at the center of this financial fiasco will be a decent investment. London isn't far behind as it also was a huge player in financial products boom of the past decade.

Folks seem to think in terms of a smallish percentage drops from the peak and don't realize the price from where these units came from only 8-10 years ago, when WS was not the huge deal it became.

serge07, i also expect prices to come down to what they were a decade ago. the whole "adjusted for inflation" i don't buy it. it's about disposable income, not consumer good inflation what matters.

we will have to see the capitulation of RE investors before we see the capitulation of owners though. how many of nyc owners are there for speculating versus long term 1st residency? i have no idea.

also, carrying costs (maintenance + taxes) are huge! how many will be willing to carry a depreciating asset at such high cost? assuming that renting will cover those for every single unit when unemployment goes up is a stretch.

admin, I have no idea where prices will ultimately settle. What I do know is that we are in the mist of a very serious global credit bust and bear markets in the global financial markets, currencies, commodities and all classes of leveraged assets (residential & commercial RE). Bear markets have a tendency to overshoot on the downside and can last longer than one's ability to remain solvent. In keeping with the title of this thread, we may have a better idea by 2010.

There will also be a tremendous amount of regulatory changes hitting the world economy in short order and those impacts cannot be quantified at this time and may take years to do so.

Unless a depression, we will see prices go back to 2000, if not the late 90's. This will depend on the area. Location location location is king in a down market (unless we go into a cataclysmic depression). NY will feel worse than the early 90's but better than the 70's, as then NY had 20 years of flight to deal with. If costs become more reasonable, the city will rebalance and remain a decent place to live. Heaven help the fringe areas that never gentrified.

Wall Street has always been a huge deal in NY. The difference is we had a much more vibrant garment center, a flower district, manufacturing downtown complete with factories. We had a "district" for everything it seemed even if they were just a block or two--even a toy district

In the 80's you couldn't walk on Sixth to Eighth Avenues in the 30's during the work day--wall to wall garment racks being pushed

I partially agree about the theater as most shows are grossly over priced, and don't take chances because if they're too succeed they need to be block busters. Even off-Broadway falls into that

NY does have more readings, but few independent book stores

NY has become a front office kind of town and that's great as long as corporations decide they need a presence in the city

Please don't assume I'm anti--New York. I think it the most wonderful city in the world