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Dow below 8000

Started by Siggy98
over 17 years ago
Posts: 50
Member since: Nov 2008
Discussion about
thoughts?
Response by malraux
over 17 years ago
Posts: 809
Member since: Dec 2007

wow

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Response by ccdevi
over 17 years ago
Posts: 861
Member since: Apr 2007

not good

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Response by Siggy98
over 17 years ago
Posts: 50
Member since: Nov 2008

not good is right. Horrible for our investments.

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Response by serge07
over 17 years ago
Posts: 334
Member since: Aug 2008

One of the ugliest days I've seen in this entire melt down. The tech sector has bee basically in a free fall since late last week.

Huge concerns about commercial RE values & related debt totally slaughtered financial companies across the board. Treasury Paulson folding up the TARP until the new administration arrives, has not helped matters at all.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Horrible for our investments."

What investments?

This is worse than even 1929. This administration is incompetent. Folding up the TARP was just plain stupid. Grandstanding over the car companies is just plain stupid. I never thought I'd say this, but I think the Republicans are really wanting to drive the economy into a tailspin - we might be headed for a Depression.

Dow 6500 before Obama takes office, unless he starts taking over now.

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Response by Siggy98
over 17 years ago
Posts: 50
Member since: Nov 2008

There is no doubt the Repubs want to test obama's union loyalties early.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

I think the Republicans might not want to know what's coming, because with 58-60 seats in the Senate and a large majority in the House, you will see nationalized health care, unions signing cards, significant changes on Wall Street. This feels more and more like FDR is needed.

Was just talking to a neighbor in the elevator, who works for a CONSUMER PRODUCTS company - you know, detergent & stuff. They are SCARED.

Deflation is a serious, serious problem.

Bernake is so clued in that just in August they were talking about raising interest rates again.

OMG. Incompetence starts at the top.

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Response by Siggy98
over 17 years ago
Posts: 50
Member since: Nov 2008

Unreal

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Response by cleanslate
over 17 years ago
Posts: 346
Member since: Mar 2008

Whoah, I'm glad we sold 80% of our stocks early in the year. And we were even starting to regret that we pulled a little early, because the prices jumped another 15%. Now the prices are in the drain, almost 50% down. Can't do anything about the 401K though, the losses are just too steep.

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Response by happyrenter
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

Look, economic activity has gone off a cliff, no two ways about it. There has been a total breakdown in capital markets--what that basically means is that we no longer know how to get capital where it needs to go. Also, Americans are starting to save again. This is a good thing, in a way, but it adds to the dismal consumer outlook. It's just a shocking situation no question about it.

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Response by Siggy98
over 17 years ago
Posts: 50
Member since: Nov 2008

Is it unreasonable to assume that prime real estate prices in NYC will fall significantly in the next year? Am I smoking something?

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Response by lo888
over 17 years ago
Posts: 566
Member since: Jul 2008

Time to buy equities. Forget about getting back to where we were but at these prices, there are lots of attractive investments out there. It's time to invest shrewdly and make some money. Beware of the green bubble while you do it...

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Response by lo888
over 17 years ago
Posts: 566
Member since: Jul 2008

Prime RE is falling. There are already some things out there that you would have never seen coming 6 months ago. Question is, will you feel like an idiot 6 months from now even at these levels? My guess is yes...

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Time to buy equities."

I'd wait another 1500 points on the Dow if I were you. We broke through an important psychological barrier today on the Dow, and a support level on the S&P.

"Americans are starting to save again."

Save what? Unemployment checks? There is no money to save, the capital markets are crazy, Hank Paulson is incompetent.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

Im still niblin! I have faith in America. I have faith in the system. I have faith in bernanke. I have faith in Oban. I have faith in having faith!

I GOT IT! Lets legalize marijuana and use the taxes to help pay off our debts! At least we can all get a bit doozy in the meantime!

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Response by cleanslate
over 17 years ago
Posts: 346
Member since: Mar 2008

It will be buy one get one free on the real estate soon. LOL!

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Lets legalize marijuana and use the taxes to help pay off our debts!"

Can we vote on that?!

"It will be buy one get one free on the real estate soon."

Not so LOL - it's happened before: buy a 2-bedroom, get a studio for free. And take my wife, please.

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Response by cleanslate
over 17 years ago
Posts: 346
Member since: Mar 2008

I think I read somewhere before someone was quoted saying something like "It's worse than a divorce because I still have a wife."

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Steve just said the stock market is about to go down, so clearly its time to buy.

He might have called RE right, but he's horrible at calling the stock market. In fact, I think he got the last 3 big moves called completely wrong...

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Response by flmd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 223
Member since: Feb 2008

people relax, its a bear market...what happened to all the bottom callers on this board just 3 weeks ago?

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Response by type3secretion
over 17 years ago
Posts: 281
Member since: Jun 2008

"I GOT IT! Lets legalize marijuana and use the taxes to help pay off our debts! At least we can all get a bit doozy in the meantime!"

First thing today I smiled at. I think lo888 is right - smart investing now is for big rewards later. But I also think Steve is right. I feel we are going a good bit lower over the next 6-9 months, and if you don't want to risk not being smart, bottom is still a bit off.

All we need now is some big disaster or other world trauma to bring everything down. We are on thin ice.

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Response by type3secretion
over 17 years ago
Posts: 281
Member since: Jun 2008

today's Tony Auth makes the point about Treasury:
http://www.uclick.com/client/nyt/ta/

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Thing is, thats how bottoms work.

If folks didn't think it could go lower, then we'd be up already. At EVERY bottom there was someone going "its going to get worse". If there wasn't someone saying "Dow could hit 5k" in 2001, Dow would never have gotten to 7k that year. If everyone thought that it couldn't go lower, then they would have all bought in.... who would turn down an investment with no downside and tons of upside...

I'm not guaranteeing it isn't.... but every bottom had its bears. And, given that it seems to be more of them than anyone else, perhaps that is capitulation. Hell, I don't see any genuine bulls anymore...

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

We need some smiles, Im putting it up on UD to spread the humor

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Response by aboutready
over 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

not to burst the smile bubble, but what the hell is happening at Citi? i've long suspected some propping up was going on, did someone pull the rug? i've got a fairly large amount of money being wired into my Citi account shortly that I can't redirect, i know it's foolish and perhaps (almost certainly)irrational but i'd be a lot happier if it were going to my Chase account.

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Response by mrsbuffet
over 17 years ago
Posts: 134
Member since: Nov 2006

And down and down goes the future downpayment... but perhaps apartments will be 40%+ lower, too?

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Response by malraux
over 17 years ago
Posts: 809
Member since: Dec 2007

wow

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Steve just said the stock market is about to go down, so clearly its time to buy."

Then buy real estate.

"He might have called RE right, but he's horrible at calling the stock market."

OH! I see, I'm good at some things, bad at others.

As we all are.

However, as I've repeatedly said, what caused this problem was what for me - as an economist and former banker & small business owner - was unthinkable: letting a bank (Lehman) go under.

Then - oh, the TARP! WE NEED $700 BILLION. IT'S THE RIGHT AMOUNT. WAIT, NO, $300 BILLION IS THE RIGHT AMOUNT. AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO INVEST IT IN ESTABLISHING A MARKET FOR TOXIC ASSETS. RATHER, WE'RE JUST GOING TO GIVE IT TO BANK OF AMERICA SO THEY CAN BUY MERRILL LYNCH.

Oh, by the way, WE DIDN'T ASK FOR THE AUTHORITY TO INVEST IN PREFERRED SHARES. BARNEY FRANK INSISTED ON IT.

Oh - WHO CARES IF THE LARGEST SINGLE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN AMERICA GOES BANKRUPT. IT'S GOOD FOR THE "right-to-work states."

Please.

"In fact, I think he got the last 3 big moves called completely wrong..."

Did I? If you had predicted that this administration would have been so incompetent, then you're in the wrong industry: you should be a psychic. Because never in the remotest universe anywhere would I have considered myself more competent than the former chairman of Goldman Sachs.

But I am.

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Response by BGaria
over 17 years ago
Posts: 131
Member since: Jul 2008

Steve 2 weeks ago: "Nope. Never. I said it would fall to 8,000, and it did. Up 50% after down 50% still means 25% down, in case you didn't realize. So let's say we were at 14,000, fell to 7,800, it would still only bring us to about 11,700, which is where we were in May. Which is where I think we'll be in a few months."

Steve today: "Dow 6500 before Obama takes office, unless he starts taking over now."

Any more self-contradictory "predictions" you care to share?

"This is worse than even 1929" and "we might be headed for a Depression."

Don't say that in a public forum. It creates panic. Remember the e-mail campaign to CNBC you started? You are being completely irresponsible.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

So, Bgaria, you expect me to make a prediction in 1966 and for it to hold forever, regardless of changing circumstances.

LMAO.

Yes - I remember the CNBC post. Did I mention they responded to me?

Dude - things change. Incompetence abounds. I stand by everything I say within the context of when I say it.

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Response by mh23
over 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007

I think we are definitely going to test 6500. I did not put any stops on any of my investments because they are long-term, but I sure jumped the gun on BAC. That being said, I think we are going to have to wait until Obama is actually the President before we see any real changes in sentiment or direction. Personally, I have not sold any of my positions, and I won't. I have not added to any in the last two weeks, but I am definitely thinking about adding to AA and MHP, but I am going to wait a while. I also will buy some DIS and some more FDX and V. I am investing for the long term, however it still stings a bit that I jumped when I did when I could have gotten a bigger discount. That being said, No one I know can time a bottom, so I am glad I started getting in at arounf the 8600 number rather than the 14000 number. My only real regret, which is too strong a word, is that I got too excited about BAC too early. However, I am not interested in taking the loss, so I am going to hold until it goes back up, or goes down to zero.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"but I sure jumped the gun on BAC."

I'll buy it at $10.

"That being said, I think we are going to have to wait until Obama is actually the President before we see any real changes in sentiment or direction."

Let's hear it for somebody who can speak in a sentence, unlike Hank Paulson!

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Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008

"However, I am not interested in taking the loss, so I am going to hold until it goes back up, or goes down to zero."

That doesn't make sense to me. You already have the loss in BAC. Maybe you haven't realized it for tax purposes, but who cares? You can use it to offset ST gains later. If you think it is going down then you should sell it. End of story. Anchoring psychologically to your purchase price is a sure way to lose money long term - it promotes selling your winners (anything above your basis) and holding onto your losers (below your basis) when in fact, you should do the opposite. Also, it's a completely arbitrary anchor point. Why not 3% above your purchase, or 10% below?

"I think we are definitely going to test 6500."

In that case, you should liquidate your portfolio and buy in at 6500. Maybe what you meant was you are worried it may hit 6500, but not really sure, so you bought some now and are prepared to buy more if it falls to that level. That would be more consistent with your behavior, but a completely different statement.

Since you gave us your stock picks, I'd like to give some feedback.
AA - too much leverage for a commodity play that could see earnings drop 70%+. Because of the leverage, it's one of those high risk/high return trades but I don't see commodities coming back anytime soon.
MHP - don't like the rating agency business. they are what got us into this whole mess to begin with and i believe the duopoly on credit ratings has seen its final days. plus the go-go growth in S&P came from structured products and levered loans, both of which are gone for a long time. I prefer it to MCO, but that ain't saying much.
DIS - why buy a company with theme park exposure at 9 P/E when you can pick up, say VIA/B for 6 P/E? CCO and CMCSK are both better values in media. If anything, I'd short DIS against those.
V - great company and great business. but it's expensive, though I don't disagree on buying.
BAC - I'd dump on a rally. Write-downs are going to be scary in 4Q (think about any asset value on their balance sheet and what likely happened since September to it). Buying MER for $50bn will haunt Lewis for a while yet. While I don't think BAC will be allowed to fail, doesn't mean equity holders are getting much in a bail out (e.g. AIG). You may like it long term, but as you know, ST you could see that stock fall another 30% easy. For crying out loud, C fell 20%+ today.

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Response by 33asdf
over 17 years ago
Posts: 10
Member since: Nov 2008

stevejhx
about 6 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse "Horrible for our investments."

What investments?

This is worse than even 1929.

oh, because you were around then and you are a financial historian in addition to being a translator. Didn't you figure out all of the fraud at Bank of America back in the 1980s with your brilliant forensic wisdom? But why not now? How come you didn't figure out any of this? All you can do is post after the fact all this incompetence. As moronic as these people are, you are even more untrustworthy

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Response by newbuyer99
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008

"I think I read somewhere before someone was quoted saying something like "It's worse than a divorce because I still have a wife.""

For the record, the quote was alternately attributed to a trader or a hedge fund manager on one of those way down days a few weeks ago, and the quote was "this is worse than divorce, I lost half of my net worth but I have to keep my wife"

As for nibbling, I am tempted to put a bit more $$ in at these levels. Haven't decided for sure, probably need to given the swings. Definitely keeping a lot of powder dry in case markets do keep going down.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

me: "This is worse than even 1929."

"oh, because you were around then and you are a financial historian in addition to being a translator."

Actually, look at the decline in the stock market in the first year after 1929, and in this last year. You will see that this year's decline has been worse.

"Didn't you figure out all of the fraud at Bank of America back in the 1980s with your brilliant forensic wisdom?"

The problem with Bank of America in the 1980's was not "fraud." In fact, we did investigate fraud but didn't find any. The problem lay with bad agricultural loans in California, if you need to know.

"All you can do is post after the fact all this incompetence. As moronic as these people are, you are even more untrustworthy."

Thank you, but I posted all of this before and during, as well.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

give it 6 months...the purging will be over.

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Response by mh23
over 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007

Special-K, thanks for your opinions. As for the 6500 comment, you are correct when you say that that is where I think it will go. I will probably buy more stocks today or tomorrow if we see another huge sell-off, and not just wait until it hits 6500. Obviously, I have no idea what the bottom is. As for selling my positions, I realize that from a trading standpoint you are correct, but I don't really trade or actively manage my account in such an aggressive way on a day to day basis. I bought BAC with a long-term horizon, and since I am long on the stock, I may as well hold it. Since I bought it at 27 and 22, I certainly would have bought it at 13, so I have no interest in selling it at these prices. If it does rally back up to 22, I will sell some of my position to limit my exposure.
As for your views on my picks, I appreciate you viewpoint, but I obviously disagree. As for AA, at some point people will need aluminum again, and when they do AA will be the major player. Also, in an Obama administration I believe there will be more of an emphasis on recycling and other environmental projects and development which should play into AA's hands. I have a multi-year time horizon and, like with BAC and my other stocks, if I bought them at a higher price I certainly have no interest in selling them at a lower price after owning them for less than 60 days. Clearly I did not buy in at the absolute bottom, but I did not expect to, but rather my plan was and is to use the next 12-18 months to build positions over time, and then wait for the investments to perform. MHP dominates the textbook market and with the economy as it is, more people will be going back to school, and I am sure that Obama will be offering incentives for more people to be able to afford school, which will also improve enrollment. I bought V at 48, and will definitely buy more if it hits 48 or goes below it.

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Response by faustus
over 17 years ago
Posts: 230
Member since: Nov 2007

mh23 - I generally agree that this is a time to buy in. Will AA survive long-term? Yep. Will DD survive long-term? Yep. BAC? Probably.

I looked at some industrial companies yesterday that had <1.0x net debt/EBITDA, >3% div yields and ~3-4x EV/ forward EBITDA. Valuations I've never seen before.

But it will go lower. Simply because of the liquidations. This quarter is the all-time-rock-your-world climax for hedge fund liquidations. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6,000, but I would be surprised if we're still at 6,000 one year from now.

I'm not a day trader (I couldn't do what Noah does), but agree that a decent strategy is to pick up these low debt, low multiple, high dividend companies and put them in the safe and forget about them for 2 years.

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Response by faustus
over 17 years ago
Posts: 230
Member since: Nov 2007

Weird - streeteasy glitch. The companies I looked at yesterday also had less than 1x net debt/EBITDA.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"Simply because of the liquidations."

It's the only way to get cash, just about. Overnight LIBOR is back up to 0.4%; it should be at 0.1% more or less. Banks were given money; they are not lending. Canceling the TARP made it worse.

Then of course, everything this administration has done made it worse.

Notice how 1st-time unemployment claims went up to a record in October. The world as we know it ended with the bankruptcy of Lehman.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

well I timed nibbling too early this time, and gave back about 40% of my gains. This market is tough! I sold my ultrashorts way too early, and I cant pull the trigger on srs at 235 and skf at 230...If I did, they would fall 70, I know it.

This market is extremely tough. Every rally is sold into. I wonder if/when this changes and a rally actually lasts. That would be quite a surprise to many traders I keep in touch with. I will tell you that most of the guys I talk to are about throw in the towel, which to me is kind of a contrarian indicator. Im almost at that point to, and when I get this feeling, usually the market bounces, at least a bit.

Who knows. You just dont know when you will wake up and GM declares bankruptcy, and we are limit down.

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Response by streakeasy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 323
Member since: Jul 2008

UD, its called capitulation. I'm waiting for it and I think the rest of the small investor community is as well.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

UD, I'm not making any more market moves because I'm convinced that whatever I do, the opposite will be the right thing. There is no way to invest or trade with volatility at these levels, disarray in Washington, constant policy changes, no leadership on any front, banks refusing to lend despite having been given the money - and they keep on paying dividends!

My advice is if you have anything, hold onto it, don't buy anything else, hoard cash, get lots of credit cards just in case. That's exactly what I've done. This does not feel like anything I've ever felt before; Dow 6,500 would not surprise me.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

Yea, I agree, this is unlike anything I have felt before as well. This is way worse than dot com mania and bust.

Im holding my longs. I nibbled, I didnt load up. Honestly, this down 200 here down 300 there, is killing me. Lets open down 900, purge, and get it over with!

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Response by serge07
over 17 years ago
Posts: 334
Member since: Aug 2008

>Who knows. You just dont know when you will wake up and GM declares bankruptcy, and we are limit down.<

UB, I agree with the GM situation. The ripple effects of a GM bankruptcy on the general economy and the banking system would be ugly in my view. Who knows the far reaching effects of it would be.

There is also a lot of smoke coming out of the Citi building. Whatever the issues are with the bank need to be cleared up ASAP. The capital injections aren't working & management has zero credibility.

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> So, Bgaria, you expect me to make a prediction in 1966 and for it to hold forever, regardless of
> changing circumstances.

Circumstances change every day. Thats why they are called PREDICTIONS. And why you weren't any less wrong.

What you are doing is akin to saying "yes, I said the Patriots would win, but the circumstances have changed, as the Jets have scored more points".

Yes, the circumstances changed... but you were still wrong.

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> UD, I'm not making any more market moves because I'm convinced that whatever I do, the opposite will
> be the right thing.

Smartest thing you've said on this board..

;-)

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> I will tell you that most of the guys I talk to are about throw in the towel, which to me is kind of
> a contrarian indicator.

Absolutely. But each time I feel that, somehow "its the end of the world" turns into "its even worse than the end of the world".

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Response by faustus
over 17 years ago
Posts: 230
Member since: Nov 2007

"I'm convinced that whatever I do, the opposite will be the right thing"

My sentiments exactly. I've actually sold stocks along the way not because I thought the market would go lower, but because in my self-distrusting manner I thought I'd put the voodoo on the market and fix the low at the precise moment I sold. My thinking - if I sell, it must be the low. I'm tempted to do that again.

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Response by streakeasy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 323
Member since: Jul 2008

S&P 500 falls to 2002 levels. WTF are people going to realize that they'll need to lower their prices and eat losses on RE? Wake Up People!

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

RE is the largest asset for many. If people are in trouble, its the last hope to get as much money as possible, especially if they got real hurt in stock markets.

So, they cling to hope, so to speak, that the perfect buyer will come tomorrow, or the next OH. This 'anchoring' to previous price comps is the psychology that explains why most listings are still overpriced PLUS why there is very little sales volume right now and a highly illiquid market.

This is the period when those that must sell are exposed.

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Response by mh23
over 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007

I agree with the recent posts. All of the companies I started nibbling on are down since I started 5 weeks ago or so. The only one that troubles me is BAC because the drop has been so substantial. Based upon my time horizon and strategy, I would normally do some more buying today as I am hardly anywhere close to being fully invested. However, I lack the confidence in the underlying financial structure to invest any more cash. I have no problem averaging into a bear market and starting the process too early. I do have a problem participating in a system that may have substantial structural flaws. That being said, I hope that a large part of what we are seeing is more forced liquidations, because that will, over time, lead to opportunities to by companies for a good price. However, if we are back to square one of the credit crisis, then we have a major problem that is being exacerbated by the lack of leadership from Treasury. I love V at these prices, but I am not going to buy any more until my overall confidence level improves, even if it means buying at a somewhat higher price. Obviously the reward is contingent upon the risk, and my appetite for risk is nil today.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

we need to puke at the open! That will be a better nibbling spot to add to positions if that is your thing. Downside risk during trading day is just too great and every rally is sold into. As long as that lasts, we need an event to occur (GM bankruptcy, for example) and a limit down open to purge this market and I think that will be a good spot to buy. Im with you mh23...been nibblin and about 50% invested in the funds I put to invest/day trade stocks; which is only 50% of my wealth. Rest in cash, short term CDs.

Its painful for those that try to get in before the bounce. Watching things go against them and so much uncertainty out there. Man, the real-life after effects of this crisis are going to be awful.

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Response by Special_K
over 17 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008

mh23 - btw, i appreciate your open and honest attitude about what you buy and what you like. i wanted to give you my honest feedback on your picks as well. look, anyone who says they know the bottom is just full of it. your strategy of starting to buy not so long ago is one that seems very sound to me. i don't think many could have anticipated just how quickly and severely things went south. i also agree with your strategy of just keep buying as it falls, especially at these levels. which quite frankly in my mind are ridiculous (i just don't agree with all your picks - but hey, that's what makes a market!)

here's some food for thought:
1) S&P sub 800 in end of 2002 was a fantastic opportunity to buy.
2) S&P is now sub 800.
3) Since YE02, GDP grew over 30%. Corporate earnings grew 100% to YE07. However, we are facing a deep recession. Even under a draconian scenario of 8-10% GDP contraction (the worst GDP contraction since great depression was 3.7% peak to trough), we would still have a higher GDP now than in 02. As for earnings, they have taken a 25%+ hit in 08, primarily because of hundreds of billions of financial write-offs which typically go to the bottom line. Excluding financials, earnings are up over 100% since then. Excluding financials, even if they were to fall 50% (very unlikely IMHO) they would still be 50% higher than 2002.
4) This explains these historically low multiples. But if things were a good buy then, they are an even better value now.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"And why you weren't any less wrong."

That's ridiculous. If the weatherman predicts tomorrow will be sunny, and a meteor hits Kansas City and spits up a tad of dust, he can't alter his prediction?

Sure he was wrong - he didn't predict the unpredictable.

As I've said before, people here will tell me I'm wrong if I say it will occur at noon and it occurs at 12:01.

"I thought I'd put the voodoo on the market"

That's exactly how I feel. I'm keeping my comfortable cash position just in case I actually will need to spend it.

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Response by streakeasy
over 17 years ago
Posts: 323
Member since: Jul 2008

JPM Cuts 3000 jobs in Investment Banking.

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Response by mh23
over 17 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Dec 2007

Special-K, I appreciate your thoughts and feedback. I have been thinking about buying some SPY for a while, and other than V and maybe FDX, there are not any specific companies that I feel compelled to buy right now. My sense is that there are definitely opportunities, and from my vantage point, I am only putting to work money that I know I may have to wait several years to access. I definitely did my initial nibbling based upon the thinking that valuations had gotten totally out of whack based upon forced liquidations and panic selling. While I believe that there is still some of that going on, I now feel that the downward movement on stocks is being driven, in part, by concerns over future economic conditions. Whether those predictions are correct or not, the change in thinking has had an impact on stock prices. That being said, I am probably over thinking things, and trying to do what I know is impossible, which is time a bottom. I will force myself to add to some of my positions, and probably start building positions in some ETFs, on the next big down day.

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Special K, I absolutely agree with you on the logic. I think that a DEEP recession is already priced in and then some.

Only thing is, history shows us that undervalued doesn't mean it isn't going to go down more. Thats what happens in panics. I agree that fundamentals and logic would point at this being a good time to buy, but markets don't always follow logic, and its usually worst at the absolute tops and bottoms.

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Response by cccharley
over 17 years ago
Posts: 903
Member since: Sep 2008

I jumped in today with a little MET and C. Time will tell but they shouldn't be going bankrupt.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

Citigroup's stock is trading around the $5 mark—a 13-year low—and the banking giant's troubles may be just beginning.

Mary Altaffer / AP

Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock maintains below that level--it briefly dropped under $5 during Thursday trading--it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower.

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

interesting... apparently there is some bi-partisan agreement on an auto bailout...

and the market liked that, and then went back to where it was.

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

BTW, if you own C and it falls below $5 a share, you can't use it for margin collateral, either, which will also cause it to fall further.

Boy I'd be careful with that one.

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Response by cccharley
over 17 years ago
Posts: 903
Member since: Sep 2008

Well Steve since I only owe 100 shares I don't think that will be a problem. I actually would add all the way down to zero and stash it away. It's not going bankrupt

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

exactly 46% off peak now...

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

"It's not going bankrupt"..OR the govt wont allow it to go bankrupt? Their balance sheet is a complete mess.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

ok, honestly. This is getting real scary. Down 415 now. Doesnt matter the price, they just want OUT

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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"It's not going bankrupt"

Hey, if it's just $500, cool. But you might want US Bank, JPM, BAC (also risk this) as better than C.

UD - it's not their "balance sheet." It's their off-balance sheet that's an opaque mess.

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

hit 47% then bounced (for now).

BTW, anybody think the pieces of C will be worth a lot more than C....

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

meant that too

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> Doesnt matter the price, they just want OUT

If thats everyone, thats capitulation.

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Response by malraux
over 17 years ago
Posts: 809
Member since: Dec 2007

wow

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

47.5%

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Response by type3secretion
over 17 years ago
Posts: 281
Member since: Jun 2008

capitulation: The sale of a security at a loss for the specific purpose of moving funds from the sale into a less risky investment. Capitulation refers to investors "giving up" on a particular security. Value investors often review such sales of securities, since the value of the underlying security could be inherently higher than what the share price currently is. Technical traders might view the low price as a potential bottom of a cycle.

So, there may be capitulation on a subset of stocks, but have we reach that for the market as a whole? when total panic sets in, is anything safe?

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

market is trading on:

a) emotion, fear, panic
b) margin calls, forced sales
c) deleveraging, forced sales

and any other terms you want to add to this list. As long as this fear is here, who knows how low we go. I hit out half my stuff when we were down 260. Holding rest. Ideally we can purge, open limit down, say down 800 points, hit Dow 6800 or so, and then maybe we can call a temp bottom.

At this stage, who the heck knows when something real bad may wake us all up in the morning. Ugh, when I look at where SRS, SKF is, I get sick! If only I went on a 4 month vacation to Hawaii, first class everything, life would be very good right now!

anyone here hold these ultrashorts to this level?

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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

ca·pit·u·la·tion (k-pch-lshn)
n.
1. The act of surrendering or giving up. See Synonyms at surrender.

there is no untouched sector. Most investors I know at this point don't want to be in anything. The S&P has been cut in half.

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Response by urbandigs
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

gold has held up very well through all this

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Response by newbuyer99
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008

I am staying the hell away from financials, because there (1) I don't understand their balance sheets, earnings, etc, and I don't think anyone does, including their execs - I don't want to invest in something I don't understand and (2) it's a bet on/against specific government actions, which is something else I don't want to be investing in.

Someone may make incredible money buying financials now, but it will be someone a lot smarter and/or a lot luckier than me.

I bought some GE at a bit below $19, thinking it was more of a "real" company than a financial. Beginning to regret it, between the substantial movement since and the further rumor swirling due to the finance unit and more $$ they may need.

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Response by ddue
about 17 years ago
Posts: 1
Member since: Mar 2009

whats the latest with GE?

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