Historical Perspective

why would we not slide to 1999 levels? why not slide to 1990 levels? anyone have clear understanding what Stag-Deflation means? What Dow 5000=to Manhattan real estate...

but the dow is not at 5000. look, i am very bearish on nyc real estate and on the economy in general, but both of these comments represent the problem with this board. first, the question just asserts an opinion that we won't reach 1999 levels by someone who clearly doesn't know what those levels were. do you have an actual reason for targeting 2002-2004 prices? or that just appeals to your gut?

then then next comment posits a connection between the dow at 5000 and manhattan real estate without providing any reason to expect the dow at 5000. the economy is weak and looks to stay weak, but just as goesaround says "why not 1990 levels," i could reply "why not dow 2000? or dow 200?" simply throwing these dramatic numbers around is just silly.

www.millersamuel.com/data

will let you run your own historicals for different time frames and different neighborhoods.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

I think we're already at 2004 prices, and that took just a couple of months.... so I think we'll pass 2002...

thx for the link front_porch
so if you look at coops and condos in the UWS, we get the following

for 3br 3Q 2008 is just about back to 4Q 2007 which is consistent with my personal observation
similar for the other categories
It would be great to see the 1999-2000 numbers since then I could actually afford something nice!
However we are about 2x from there

Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4+Bedroom All
3Q, 2008 1,098 973 1,383 1,925 3,027 1,267
2Q, 2008 982 1,166 1,694 2,289 2,925 1,476
1Q, 2008 1,116 1,129 1,632 2,418 4,209 1,534
4Q, 2007 939 1,008 1,387 1,967 1,547 1,221
3Q, 2007 963 1,001 1,280 1,722 2,938 1,176
2Q, 2007 940 1,007 1,255 1,855 1,547 1,166
1Q, 2007 977 964 1,123 1,561 3,130 1,098
4Q, 2006 830 864 1,147 1,366 2,624 1,054
3Q, 2006 817 980 1,208 1,702 2,375 1,137
2Q, 2006 1,020 912 1,155 1,639 2,286 1,124
1Q, 2006 863 925 1,071 1,265 1,658 1,032
4Q, 2005 852 963 1,203 1,309 1,755 1,084
3Q, 2005 956 955 1,090 1,368 1,552 1,041
2Q, 2005 826 906 1,237 1,447 2,639 1,105
1Q, 2005 703 775 1,126 1,688 2,081 1,005
4Q, 2004 679 754 929 1,233 2,135 834
3Q, 2004 698 777 969 1,226 1,306 889
2Q, 2004 782 732 1,004 1,177 1,539 899
1Q, 2004 578 676 886 1,115 1,762 811
4Q, 2003 565 621 866 1,005 1,527 772
3Q, 2003 638 659 746 1,073 1,518 731
2Q, 2003 501 632 742 1,035 1,532 697
1Q, 2003 541 628 692 1,103 1,360 687
4Q, 2002 589 667 773 897 1,858 723
3Q, 2002 636 613 771 1,039 1,590 747
2Q, 2002 494 641 703 1,064 1,325 700
1Q, 2002 461 573 733 992 1,225 670
4Q, 2001 463 578 697 995 1,219 629
3Q, 2001 469 533 709 1,134 1,249 647
2Q, 2001 481 567 717 946 1,165 644
1Q, 2001 441 573 686 1,062 1,374 638
4Q, 2000 428 505 614 1,072 983 566
3Q, 2000 435 515 634 1,009 1,547 589
2Q, 2000 397 520 669 872 1,043 598
1Q, 2000 362 451 588 921 1,270 531
4Q, 1999 360 406 561 671 717 479
3Q, 1999 338 410 523 735 1,091 464
2Q, 1999 318 391 529 646 1,099 462
1Q, 1999 351 351 502 650 1,034 445
4Q, 1998 272 355 466 571 1,005 406
3Q, 1998 276 350 480 638 1,068 408
2Q, 1998 260 327 432 651 757 381
1Q, 1998 286 321 436 537 629 381