Another delusional seller

Is this seller delusional? What's a fair price?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356135-condo-157-east-72nd-street-upper-east-side-new-york

$1,825 per ft²

Hilarious! Worth about $600 psf.

BTW $1,825 per ft² = $12.67 per square inch.

Gold leaf is cheaper than that, even at today's price of gold.

I could see the one Steve linked selling for around $650k-700 right now.

As for Minna's link, that's not really what I follow but I find it hard to believe it could go for more than $1500/sf.

$400,000 puts that apartment at a bit under $500/psf. In terms of location, that's almost prime UWS (as far as I'm concerned). Steve, do you think that's where the UWS is generally headed? (And, if so, do you think it'll get there in 1 year, 2 years, etc?)

$1,825 per ft²

Hilarious! Worth about $600 psf.

Interesting, Steve... how do you arrive at that? Is it because it's barely west of Third? I figured it was hugely inflated but I was thinking more along the lines of $1000 psf or more (talljay's estimate of $1500 being the ceiling), mostly b/c it's a condo and not a co-op.

That was my first post, but I'm a long-time lurker, and I appreciate what you bring to the discussion here.

Another example of another so-so building where someone appears to have delusions of grandeur. It's in Brooklyn Heights and I am not an insider so I can't see what the 2006 closing price was, but assuming they closed for ask, this seller is trying to double his money in 2 years in a middle-class co-op complex. Ridiculous.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349590-coop-230-jay-street-downtown-brooklyn-brooklyn
11/28/2006
Previously listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran for $170,000
05/09/2007
Previous sale closed for (insiders only)
09/17/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $385,000
10/25/2008
Price decreased to $369,000
11/11/2008
Price decreased to $349,000

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/424547-coop-150-west-79th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
given that there's a roughly equivalent rental nearby (although a ground floor) at 3100/mo- using a conservative ratio (skewed towards buyers) of 18x, I get a price of about 670k, still almost 120k less than asking OR 15% lower, and would put the apt close to $700 sq/ft. If you use a historical ratio of 12x (skewed towards renters), you'd find a 450k intrinsic with roughly $500 sq/ft costs.

I'm a bit of a jay street expert. From the nytimes site (http://realestate.nytimes.com/comparables/)

No 8B sale listed.

1 230 JAY STREET, 5A Brooklyn 7/29/2008 $410,000
2 230 JAY STREET, 15D Brooklyn 7/7/2008 $289,000
3 230 JAY STREET, 2J Brooklyn 4/21/2008 $475,000
4 230 JAY STREET, 2B Brooklyn 2/4/2008 $335,000
5 230 JAY STREET, 16A Brooklyn 9/11/2007 $450,000
6 230 JAY STREET, 16E Brooklyn 7/11/2007 $325,000
7 230 JAY STREET, 9D Brooklyn 7/11/2007 $220,000
8 230 JAY STREET, 8A Brooklyn 6/12/2007 $399,000
9 230 JAY STREET, 12D Brooklyn 3/6/2007 $227,500
10 230 JAY STREET, 12F Brooklyn 3/1/2007 $283,000
11 230 JAY STREET, 2E Brooklyn 1/10/2007 $295,000
12 230 JAY STREET, 5F Brooklyn 9/18/2006 $320,000
13 230 JAY STREET, 3H Brooklyn 8/22/2006 $345,000
14 230 JAY STREET, 17-C Brooklyn 5/22/2006 $490,000
15 230 JAY STREET, 4F Brooklyn 4/12/2006 $316,500

"how do you arrive at that?"

Because I think prices will fall to 2003 levels, or below.

don't be such a bull steve... 1999 prices... now we're talking :)

no sleep till $500psf.. prime baby... prime...

The place on west 79th is on the 2nd floor (bad) and looks to be about 800SF. Calling the dining alcove "easily convertible to a second bedroom" is a joke - it looks about 7x7. I wouldn't be surprised if drops to $400K, although the likelier scenario is that someone (foolishly) buys it before it drops that far.

The price on east 72nd is either funny or offensive. $1800psf? $1500psf? For what, exactly? My new rule for family sized apartments is that if it's over $1000psf, there's got to be a very, very good reason. Don't see one here.

Site now says in contract...

"Site now says in contract..."

but, but, but.. how can that be? Doesn't every buyer know they should wait till prices fall 50%? How could the great prognosticators be wrong?

w67th - "no sleep till $500psf.. prime baby... prime..."
steve - "Given the size and carrying costs, it won't sell for more than $400,000."
talljay - "I could see the one Steve linked selling for around $650k-700 right now."

East 72nd is a joke. If you look back at the sales history for the building, 9H and 9I were sold separately to the same owner for a total of $1.325M (555 and 770). The 100%+ appreciation being asked for seems very aspirational (even taking account of the cost of combining. While the $400k price chop may turn heads, I'm with those who still see this apt as $1M overpriced (if not more).

Anyone want to guess at the contract price for W. 79th? I'm guessing $650k.

Concord Village sellers are delusional. But I think I understand the phenom.

That's a decent old cooperative complex that was originally full of folks we might now wistfully describe as middle-class New Yorkers -- ie people with college degrees who made modest salaries but often also had decent pensions, like teachers, cops, social workers, etc.

Now a lot of those people saw the value of their apartments rise astronomically over the past 5 or 7 years. Many of them probaly paid 80k bucks for a one-bedroom in Concord Village ten or 15 years ago, and then boom, all of a sudden similar floorplans in the complex were selling for $350k or $400k.

Now the thing is, these people never made a lot of money, and they definitely never made a lot of money that FAST before.

So I think what we'll see is this: those folks are going to be the diehards when it comes to adjusting to the current market. They are going to cling to that runup in value like nobody's business. They won't negotiate and they won't sell for less than what they think they are entitled to, no matter what.

It's a different psychology than you get more sophisticated sellers, many of whom are in Manhattan. They see that the market moves in cycles and that value fluctuates with time, and they understand that appreciation is not permanent.

But not so much with the middle-class (or more accurately, educated lower middle class) in Brooklyn. They're tenacious and stubborn. They won't budge.

Concord Village? Is that in New York?

JohnDoe, I'll guess $729k. And the seller is damn lucky! Stevejhx predicts $400k, but I highly doubt that.

lycra, it's brooklyn. Whether or not that's in New York, I leave for you to decide. ;-)

Happy New Year to all. gg

buster, I think seller is damn luck at either 650 or 729. This seems like the sort of apartment that could very easily go for under $500k once the market hits its bottom.

GG, you are spot on, and that has been my experience when looking there (since last summer, before the crisis). It actually seems like a nice community, but the prices they are asking require DINK income for what is a one-bedroom in a decent but not luxury complex. The only reason they were getting those prices was because of the bubble, with anyone of "moderate" income - basically, not an i-banker - who actually wanted to have enough room to start a family priced out of nicer areas. The owners who sold and cashed out got lucky, but those prices are eventually going to fall hard because they are going to be competing with a ton of new development. There's already a lot of apartments in that complex that haven't sold going rental, and the rental prices are substantially below what it would cost to buy the same apartment. Without the amenities and location, I think they will eventually return to their roots.

Lycra, the website is: http://concordvillageny.com/

Happy New Year to all!

"buster, I think seller is damn luck at either 650 or 729. This seems like the sort of apartment that could very easily go for under $500k once the market hits its bottom."

Yet it sold at a price probably significantly higher than $500K, let alone steve's prediction.. how can that be?

I will go in the middle and guess $690K.

jsmith, you ask how can that be? Because declines take time. Using Nasdaq as a proxy for the tech/internet bubble, the 5000 nasdaq in march of 2000 was a bubble, and when it popped, it went all the way to below 1500. But it took 2.5 years to bottom. So someone who held the nasdaq index could've gotten out at, say 3400 in fall 2000, and yes, would've been damn lucky to do so.

FYI .. 157 West 79th shows that it is now in contract