Rental Market in 2007

I think that because of the slowing housing market (less buyers, less inventory) the rental market will be a bit tighter than it was in 2006.

Still tight and still expensive out there. Your best bet--move earlier and see if you can rent your current place earlier. Your landlord will probably be happy you are vacating and will get a much higher rent so they may not care if you want to end your lease early.

My rent went up 8% last July, and I expect more of the same (if I'm still here). That has a lot to do with me wanting to buy.

I think it is hitting its peak - wouldn't expect to see rents increase too much this year

Rents will be way down in '07 (maybe 50%). Apartment prices for condos & coops will also be way down (something like 75/80%) in '07. Best thing to do is camp out in Central Park for now, or you will loose a lot of $$$$$$$$$$!

"Rents will be down...50%...sales down 75/80%" For the love of god, go away and type away on another site. That will never, ever, ever, ever happen. People will not listen to you when you say ridiculous and baseless things like that.

I beleive he is one of the poor homeless folks trying to find decent shelter at an affordable price. He feels that writng posts like that will help his cause.

C'mon guys that post had to be a joke. At least I thought it seemed funny. I mean the "Best thing to do is camp out in Central Park..." and 50% and 80% declines can't be serious.

???

The sticker shock this summer is going to be worse then anyone has seen even in NYC. Even worse that 2000. Law firms are hiring, financial firms are hiring, just about everyone in this city is aggressively perusing new graduates and new hires. Couple that with a very large amount of property no longer on the market as rental (b/c it was turned condo over the last 5 years), not a whole lot of new rental development, and you have a recipe for a very expensive rental market. Especially over the summer time which we all know to be the peak rental months. If you want to see how bad it has gotten, and keep an eye out for how bad it gets check this out....http://www.tregny.com/manhattan-apt-rental-report.jsp. The February report will be out in a couple of days. Sorry for the bad news, but my suggestion would be to either stay put, or the suggestion by poster #3 isn't bad. Try to get out of your lease now, and re-rent before the summer arrives.

We had a similar situation last year - our lease was up in June '06. When we resigned the year earlier we had a clause put in that we could get out earlier with 45 days notice, so I started looking at places around New Years '06. We wanted to move from a 1 bedroom to 2 and from midtown to Chelsea. I focused my search on rental buildings that were large
enough to have their own rental office so I didn't have to use a broker. Almost every high rise building on the 6th ave corridor from 24th to 28th street had vacancies for 2 bed/2ba rentals in the range of $4700-$5700. We decided to stay put to save $$ in our 1 bedroom, but I filed away all the floor plans. In June I called the exact same buildings. The EXACT floorplan apartments on lower floors were going for $1000 more per month than they were in early January. And there was a lot less inventory. June through Sept is the worst time to move into a rental, especially if you're going with a luxury high rise. I was told by a broker that the January-June rent differential is about a 5% increase. Last year, it was a 25% increase. I wouldn't have believed it if I didn't happen to me, but that's my story. As for my 2007 predictions, it would seem that it couldn't get any worse, and I've been a housing Bear for the last two years which is why I pay an obscene amount of money to rent instead of buy.
I thought the housing market would soften up this year in NYC, but I'm beginning to think that with Wall Street money and the weak dollar bringing in wealthy foreign buyers to the new disney-fied manhattan there is serious demand on the high end that will keep prices on 1.5MM and up apartments sky high and climbing.

My landlord just informed me that the rent on our West End Ave. apt. will be increased from $3,550/month to $4,100/month. We are not quite sure whether we will bite the bullet and pay the increase or bite the bullet and buy.

In just over 1.5 years, market cost for my rent stabilized one bedroom apartment is $3200; I pay $2450 now and just got my renewal for $2560. There are 650 units in the building and no available units. Since prices are driven by supply and demand, there you have it - no supply, big demand.

I moved in june '05 for 2895. Raised last year to 3095. Not looking forward to seeing what this next jump will be--they raised another tenant 20% from 5000 to 6000. Problem is there is nothing equivalent I can get for under 3600 at least, even not taking into account moving fees and pain-in-the-butt factor.

It's now March so the demand should start to pick up. I guess it depends where you want to rent. Anyone want to make estimates on rents for the upcoming months for one bedrooms in GV, W. Village, Tribeca with doorman.

From what I have been hearing, the demand has already picked up hugely, despite the fact that historically winter is a slow time of year.

My area is dealing not only with the demand of the rental market as a whole, but also with the fact that it has become far more desirable since I moved in.2 years ago there were numerous vacancies in those buildings on the bpc/tribeca cusp plus new ones being built and opening up. Landlords were offering free rent and/or broker's fees.The new conds in the area have generated a buzz which extend to the rentals. This is no doubt true of other areas as well--the new condos create buzz and awareness and the promise of new and improved services. When I moved in here the general reaction was "all the way over there--there's nothing over there!!!"

#17 makes a good point. If it is this hot now, what does the peak demand season portend?

The rental market has been less than 2% in inventory over the winter - all time low availability. Summer time is peak season and will seem harder than last year. I would start looking before Summer to know where to watch out for new rental listings and which buildings would seem to have your budget and monitor new listings every morning and go see the place on the same day with all your paperwork ready to commit to it there and then it you like it enough. If you budget allows find a broker to whom you feel you can trust - best to ask for a referral from a friend of colleagues, working with a broker will only help you find other buildings you would not know otherwise.

Don't rent...buy. For same caost as some rentals, you could buy int eh amazing Maison East - the best deal in town. Great school district. Best nabe in the city!!!

Maison East has too many idle brokers hanging out on this site. 80s built crap is not new construction to me-period.

I thought #21 was being facetious.(I hope #21 was being facetious...)

I have been thinking about buying but every place I have looked at online and looked at the estimated monthly payment, the payment has been (at a minimum) several hundred dollars more than rents in the neighborhood.

poster #24:

That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. SOoyou buy a place, and now you have a FIXED payment for the next 30 YEARS which will never increase, while the rents continue to go up.

How much do you think it cost to buy a place 30 years ago in 1976? And how much do think it cost to rent a place 30 years ago? The only difference there is that the person who bought 30 years ago is paying the EXACT SAME mortgage payment that they were paying 30 YEARS AGO. Is the renter paying the same amount now that they were 30 years ago? Oh, I don't think so.

On a doorman condo unit if you buy you are looking at least a 50% higher monthly payment if you buy as opposed to rent excluding tax benefits of course. This is with a 20% downpayment and financing the rest.. Therfore on a short term basis 1-2 years probably less expensive to rent even at these prices.

Spunky - 1-2 years, I totally agree with you, hands down. But long term? 10, 15 or more years? If you're not buying to flip, but it's your home? Buy, definitely.

Looks like one Bedrooms with door in GV and Tribeca are renting for 3500 per month now and wouldn't be suprised by spring time it will be up to 4000

It should prove to be a very interesting, and telling, early late spring/early summer.

Does the market tend to slow down towards the end of the summer/September? Better to look then if you have a choice?

note that you can still find classic small 2BR 1Bath with outdoor space in WV for the same price as they were last year (up to 4500/mo).

I highly doubt that you can find a 2 Bedroom in the WV with a 24 hour doorman in an elevator building for 4500 per month. Who wants to deall with walking up and down a flight of steps and having to look behind you when you open the door to your building.

#31 to #32 - not a doorman building. i leave in such an apt right now since 2005. and quite honestly i am not afraid at any time in this neighborhood and i dont know anyone who is!!!

Our current rental building (one of the highrise rental buildings in midtown) raised rent by 10% again this year-3rd year in a row. The 2BR unit here is total crap (@5000+rent)compared to what we have bought and will be moving to shortly-bad appliances, no washer/dryer in apt, poor quality bath and kitchen fixtures that break all the time etc. etc.

To number #25. I should clarify my post a bit. My current apartment is rent stabalized. There were two places I considered buying. Figuring a 4% increase each year (which is about what it has averaged since 2000) it would take my 11 years for my rent payment to be the same as the mortgage + maintainence fee. And the maintainence feel would probably go up each year, to it could take 15 years or more for me to catch up to my mortgage payment.

Without a doorman I would not want my wife or daughter walking down the street in the eveining and opening a locked building to enter. I'd rather pay the premium but for the single male the doorman is not an issue.

#25, do you plan to stay in your apt for the next 30 years?

the funny thing about renting is that NYC must be the only place in the U.S. where adults (over the age of say, 30) consider it OK to rent; everywhere else you go if you are not a homeowner by the age of 30, you're either on COPS or sweeping up streets . . . I guess that stigma still sits with me . . .

I'm moving out of my place because I bought a condo. The new rent is 20% more.

#38 I agree. This is also a city where it is not uncommon for a 30yo/40yo/50yo! living with roommate(s).

Oy, in those tiny apartments........

We're paying $3000 for 900 sq ft + 100 sq ft deck in a very good location in midtown. The place is probably worth $1.4MM and to top things off, it's legally live/work so I can run my office (not home office) from here.

My point? just bragging.

$1.4M for 900 square feet sounds really high for midtown unless the place is gorgeous - maybe it is.

i know it is not very scientific, but i used the ratio between median sales price and monthly rent for a given neighborhood found on streeteasy for a quick rule of thumb. For midtown the factor today is 322 times. Which gives us $966k for this $3000 a month 900 sqft apartment or $1073 / sqft which is consistent with what is seen in that neighborhood right now. I am just amazed at this 322 times factor. conventional wisdom used to say it should be like 200-250. Chelsea has a 412 times (but a lot of new construction with higher prices) and WV 341 times.

#44 what are you talking about?

just to reinstate the facts about rental... no one ever consider breaking down the broker's fee to rent an apartment. most charge 15% fee... that's 1.8% of the rent. if you get a $2000 apt, you're actually paying $2300/mth if you include the broker's fee. If you are cheap like me, you would negotiate the broker's fee. Be aware that most idiotic small firms are now wirting in a small clause stating you're responsible for their 15% broker's fee. A few even charge more if it is their exclusive listing. To go around this shitty illegal crap, try negotiating the price. If they refuse to negotiate and a "set broker's fee." Report the broker and their firm to the Department of State immediately. It is call "PRICE FIXING..." and it is ILLEGAL.

As far as getting away with broker's fee... check out rental management properties. Most do not charge broker's fee. You just need the time and patience to check out their websites and do your "homework" to save money. For example, Rose Associates is one of many rental management agencies. Your broker takes you to see their apartments and charges you 15% fee for a $2000 studio, which is $3600... HMMMM... you could have saved $3600 (15%) by renting it directly from Rose Associates (rosenyc.com). You could have bought yourself a brand new 60" plasma tv with that $3600! Other rental managements with no fee could be found in a book called, "No Fee Apartments," which is published annually.

other highly rated rental management companies include:

equity residential apts - www eqr.com
rose associates - www rosenyc.com
related rentals www relatedrentals.com
archstone apts - www archstoneapartments.com

if you know of anymore... add to the list

the tate located at 535 w 23rd is a no-fee rental property >> www.thetatenyc.com

add Glenwood to the no fee list - www.glenwoodnyc.com
We rent from them, nice building at 10 Liberty.

Rochrose also, and pretty much any doorman building can be rented no fee.Just familiarize yourself with their requirements, and have things ready ahead of time, and if you like a space, secure it in a timely fashion. (have employment or cpa letter, pay stubs xeroxed and ready to go. Brin personal checkbook when viewing a building as many buildins will take it off the market for you once you fill out an app and put down credit check money.)
And by the way, I am a broker (though not a rental broker) and setting an individuals company commission at 15% is not price fixing. And not illegal.If you don't have time to do it yourself, and opt to use a broker, negotiate upfront fee due for any "open" listing.(On cobroke listings, they really have to charge 15% as the fee is split between 2 agencies"
If you go direct to a broker's exclusive listing, unless it is tremendously undervalued, you can generally neotiate the fee, as they don't have tpo split with another firm. Having said all that, being upfront and polite will get you farther with brokers than acting rude, resentful and distasteful. This is pretty good rule generall in life. Many years ago when I was a rental broker I would negotiate the fee way down for people who were nice, polite, respectful and prompt--even on my exclusives. May not always do the trick but it makes for a more pleasant situation for all involved.

blah blah blah ... setting a price fixed without any room for negotiations is price fixing! simple as 1...2...3.

no it is not.You just happen to be wrong.Having a bunch of companies decide to set the price w/o negotiation is price fixing. Laws against price fixing are intended to protect the consumer by preserving an open market. If Halstead decides to charge 30% fee, the consumer will just opt to go elsewhere.

#44, did you just go from guessing your rental was worth $1.4M to $966K?

sorry about the confusion - i am #44 and NOT #42 - should have said : "I know it is not very scientific, but if i use..." etc.

aside from paying the broker's fees is the process of renting a condo different from a rental building?

renting from a rental building gives you fast and quick response. Most will go through your application and perform a credit check right on the spot. A few will even give you an answer right there if they accept you. Others will let you know the following day. Lastly, you have "honest" and "up-front" answers to all of your questions. As for myself, I got an answer immediately on the spot. Just have all of your documents ready: last 2 years of tax return or an accepted job offer with base salary, social security number, government issued photo ID, and previous landlord references, if available. Another thing that's a +++ to me is the fact that I am not handing over all of my financial information to a broker. Most broker's must keep a file of their client for 3 years. Their brokerage firm will also have a copy of your information, as well. Thus, it creates a security risk if you have a dishonest or disorganized broker. Most condos are very different from co-ops in which you are not subjected to a co-op board approval, which could take anywhere from 1 week to several months. And I mean it!!! It's for rentals... they (the co-op board) subject you as if you were purchasing the property. I like rental property management condos as they have people on site to resolve your issues 24/7. My building has their own maintenance workers, handyman, etc. So, if I forget my keys or my toilet is clogged at 2am... there's always someone to respond.

There are relatively "exclusive" listings by brokers who have contracts to rent out an apt for their client. All of these apts are privately own - with a higher percentage being co-ops.

Another advantage is the lies by brokers. They intentionally lists rental ads that are not available. Since most rental properties are "open-listings..." you're basically stuck with a bunch of brokerage firms competing for your business. So, security is another issue. I know first hand that a few actually make copies of the apt keys. Thus, you must go through the hassle of asking your future landlord to change the locks.

The only advantage of using a broker is if you're lazy or do not have the time to find apartments and schedule appointments. A few, not all, will know the market well... as in location, price range, and the private landlord's history of tenancy - slumlord or not.

Rental properties are managed by large firms so you will have the so-called "unexpected." If you're paying 15% broker's fee... divide that by 12 (12 months in a year) and added to your monthly rent. You would be able to compare if you're paying more or less or the rental.

If a broker takes you to a "rental property," you're actually paying more to rent that property.