Miller - Excluding Apts. over $3MM, Manhattan Flat for Past 2 Years

NYC - It is interesting, but how is that possible without it showing up in the numbers previously? I am not sure I understand. Can you flesh that out for me?

I've never seen anyone take out the top 10% before. I've seen the Plaza and 15 CPW removed as outliers, but nothing more extensive. I'm not sure what numbers he's using, though. If I recall the Elliman/Miller Samuel numbers they have parsed out the luxury market, and the other markets, if I recall, have been showing gains over the last couple of years. Is he talking simple average or median price per apartment?

I know market stats are always interpreted with hindsight but it seems a little late to be reading tea leaves for '07 over '06.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

"NYC - It is interesting, but how is that possible without it showing up in the numbers previously?"

Not sure what you mean wasn't showing up in the numbers. It was in the numbers for anyone that looked.... pull off the expensive transactions, and the medians weren't growing. Meaning the top was driving the gains.

I definitely heard that case made for years, when medians were going up, but those were the go-go years with tons of rationalizations. Only when folks realize past mistakes do they go and look back. People just didn't want to hear things like that a year ago (just see what happened to folks that claimed things like this on the board).

This happens after every crash... all the "wasn't it obvious" stuff. I guess it wasn't.... either that, or most of the world was insane.

"I know market stats are always interpreted with hindsight but it seems a little late to be reading tea leaves for '07 over '06."

This isn't reading tea leaves 2 years after the fact, this is...
Remember when we read you those tea leaves and you laughed?"

It might be hindsight for folks in delusion until now, but there were many who made this clear a while back...