Buyer activity is increasing as is open house attendance according to one top broker

Really? I guess the fact that inventory cracked 10,000 and threatens to go up much higher takes a back seat to this one broker's hope.

Just because people are looking at properties, does not directly translate to them actually buying properties...

A lot of those people going to open houses are other people in the building or in nearby buildings looking to comp their own apartment before they put it on the market as well

Yeah, but what the brokers aren't mentioning is that OH activity always slows considerably during the busy holiday season; a comparative uptick in the first weeks of the year is typical.

Every open house I've been to recently has been quiet as a tomb; at many I've seen no one at all, and never more than 4 or 5 names on the sheet.

Sure Abat and SpecialK, these could all be explanations OR it could be that people are sensing that the time to buy is now. According to the blog contracts are being signed. Rememeber, the credit crunch started in July 07 and it usually takes 2 years to erect a building from paperwork to completion. We are approaching the 2 year time frame when credit available for new development froze up. So that means no new inventory for 2nd half 2009. I wouldn't want to take that chance. Obviously these buyers aren't.

I love when vultures circling is a "good sign."

"The fear that the media is hoping to induce is just not there. People are buying and living without fear. That is just what we need to revive the economy which the media doesn't want to happen. As FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

I think this is a great over simplification of a very complex set of problems that the "world" economy is now facing, from Iceland to Russia and the US. I have focused on the rental side of things since last March 1) I could not recommend buying last summer, 2) I can not afford to go 3 or 4 months with no income.

At least three friends in the biz one of whom is a top 1% broker in the country all tell me the same thing. The sales market is all but frozen, that they are working twice as hard for half the money and hating having to do rentals.

My feelings are we're just rounding 2nd base in regards to how bad things are going to get. When the market came unhinged in the late 80's we had no where near the kind of economic troubles we are seeing now. There is a hell of a lot more unwinding to take place and we have not seen panic yet, but if it does set in we are in for a wild ride.

"Rememeber, the credit crunch started in July 07 and it usually takes 2 years to erect a building from paperwork to completion. We are approaching the 2 year time frame when credit available for new development froze up. "

Credit was available well after that for real estate in nyc. In july of 2008, when 421a tax abatement was expiring, a record 30,000+ units were breaking ground or applying for last minute approval (with financing) to qualify in NYC. we are going to see a lot of supply of new condos for a long time. and many will be in such distress with partially filled buildings that they will keep resale prices down for quite a while.

"The fear that the media is hoping to induce is just not there. People are buying and living without fear."

steveF, there is a lot of palpable fear. Sure, there are people out there buying and some able to negotiate pretty good deals, but this is not at all the norm right now. Even people who are trying to buy now are finding it more difficult than ever - a friend of mine is trying to close but the mortgage company won't budge unless the co-op changes its insurance policy. These things didn't happen so much not that long ago. I think you're grasping at straws, and your agenda here is as obvious as nyc10022's, albeit in the opposite direction.

>So that means no new inventory for 2nd half 2009. I wouldn't want to take that chance. Obviously these buyers aren't. <

Soooooooooo,

Once upon a time was "buy or be priced out forever." Okay, that one turned out to be darn good advise. Yikes!

More recently,

Buy now so you don't have to move & save on those VERY expensive moving costs. This one is really good and I'm sure it will bring on the herds.

and now,

Buy now before inventory runs out. I must say, this one is very creative.....too bad I'm not in the advertisement business. As good as it is, I think I'll take my chances.

"Sure Abat and SpecialK, these could all be explanations OR it could be that people are sensing that the time to buy is now."

OR Steve is saying the exact same thing he's been saying for a year. Meaning its probably still wrong....

If you think the fear is past, why do you think we're a hair off the decade low for the stock market?

Oh, yeah, cause a broker said so.

Wasn't that the stupidity that got us into this mess in the first place?

I would be more interested in hearing how traffic at OH's now compares to OH's at this time in '08 and '07. I don;t really care that more people are showing up now compared to the last week in December. That is just a silly statement to make. Give me apples to apples so I can understand.

Any brokers want to chime in with the numbers?

I'm going to open houses about once a month. Cheap entertainment. I think, if I buy, it will be in 2011 at the earliest. Hope they're counting me.

You know the funny thing about this? We stopped going to open houses and we are actually seriously considering renting now. Our circumstances did not change, but our attitude changed. Before, we're looking specifically in prime Brooklyn, now we'd like to rent somewhere in Tribeca or BPC.

"I would be more interested in hearing how traffic at OH's now compares to OH's at this time in '08 and '07. I don;t really care that more people are showing up now compared to the last week in December. That is just a silly statement to make. Give me apples to apples so I can understand."

Absolutely. If we went from 10,000 people looking for apartments to 3... a bounce to 10 doesn't really mean a whole lot. Its what we call a "dead cat bounce".

Cleanslate: That is precisely what posting threads like this are intended to stop -- people coming to the conclusion that they should just sit it out another year until they can get better places in more desirable locations next year while building up more savings in the mean time.

Which would be the right move...

Posts like this are designed to hide the truth about a market in crisis.

Don't forget that this is peak bonus season. Some people still got paid, and this is all the activity that brokers can hope for this year. The professional vultures are not buying manhattan residential right now, maybe you're seeing some crows.

There are some folks who bought stock with the dow went from 14k to 12k, too...

My one data point is that a couple who visited me at my last open house told me that they were bidding on a two bedroom. I do not know why they spent so much time looking at my one bedroom if they wanted a two bedroom, but I guess they figured out they would need more space. ;-) Remember, I said this was only one data point.

A couple of days ago I was at a meeting of a non-profit board that I'm on. Of the seven people there, four were in senior positions with NYC companies (2 services, 1 fashion/garment industry, 1 technology) that were just about to announce layoffs. New York has just begun to feel the pain of the economic problems and traffic at open houses is only a sign of traffic at open houses. Real estate always fascinates and going to open houses is almost as anonymous as posting on StreetEasy.

Completely right. I've been to a number of OH over the last few months. At some point down the road I will buy something, but right now, I like knowing what is going on and windown shopping. And brokers all lie about this stuff anyway, so who cares what they say. It worked for a long time, but no longer.

sales activity is "directionally" proportional to visits to Las Vegas strip..... cause if you were buying in the last 4 years.... you were just gambling (leveraged 20x). Because the you believed the odds were in your favor... now we just found out the house odds are 99%... who wants to roll the dice now... do you feel lucky punk, well do ya?

"There are some folks who bought stock with the dow went from 14k to 12k, too..."

absolutely. Urban has made this point as well. People are buying and selling at every level. Anytime price drops, you will have increased activity as people with that demand price point purchase. But months of inventory is by far the #1 predictor of future prices. and that says prices will fall another 30% or more to me.

steveF, seriously, why don't you just put your studio(s) up for sale and get out while you can? holding on and then posting on this board will not change this titanic-level downward momentum on price.

Doug Heddings has explained his strategy pretty clearly: Price at 20-30% below peak, generate traffic, sell fast before the market falls farther. Smart approach.

But here's the thing: If this strategy works for Heddings and few other influential sell-side brokers, guess what everyone else will do to chase the scarce buy-side cash. Looks like a vicious circle to me.

99% of the people going to the open houses will not be able to secure a loan...

"99% of the people going to the open houses will not be able to secure a loan..."

1) How does a seller figure out if he has found someone in the lucky 1%?
2) If buyers can't buy, and sellers can't sell, who has the advantage?

407PAS... ever own a boat? The guy who's got insurance, mooring fees, mortgage, and a depreciating asset maybe be at a disadvantage?

I can keep going to you and saying I can't get mortgage can you lower price? OH Shoot... I forgot, the gov't is gonna pay 50% of your mortgage... carry on :)

Nope, no boats, never, no thanks. I don't need a depreciating asset like one of those. I'll work hard at picking a buyer who can get financing. There is no lower price for deadbeats.

There are buyers out there, but they are setting the price. Sellers need to adjust or wait out the next couple of years.

When did they admit that they were not being attended????

ha

SpecialK posts this..titanic-level downward momentum on price.

ya see it's this stupid, media like rhetoric that most bears post. it's so easy to yell out that the sky is falling. I luv how the increased traffic and contracts being signed is ignored. Typical lawyer scam "No here look over here forget about that over there" You guys are so blinded. Odds are the economy is going to get better and the worst is behind us. The Dow(which attracts the most buyer eyeballs) is pretty compressed right now and most likely will be higher rather than lower. The buying public is waiting for that positve news momentum to start. Do you think they are going to wait once positive economic news starts? hell no! they will be out in force. the smart ones out there now are scoring deals from those have to sell sellers while the news is still negative. While you guys spend time here...shaking head

BTW, SpecialK the only way i would sell one of my studios is to unlock the equity within and buy every beaten down bank stock out there. That Dow spring is pushed down to the max.

According to one broker, the market is up 20% this month.

We can go home now.

> Do you think they are going to wait once positive economic news starts?

Nope... they'll wait about 3 years (based on how other RE crashes work).