Am I the only one...

InvestorMan you are not alone, and things have just started....

Of course you're not the only one. New Yorker is full of articles about this - great article about dude who thinks that more people will return to being "servants" for room and board because there just won't be jobs.

InvestorMan,
This is the big city, filled with pimps and hoes, cons and marks. It's what makes this town great. In transition there is opertunity. Stay positive! Things will be positivly crappy for a while, stay afloat, drink coffee(made at home) and keep an eye out. Luck is the residue of design. The action is intense but the rewards are intense too! Shit happens, scrape it off your shoe, keep you head up.

I should have worded that "Does anyone else..." I'm sure I'm not the only one that does find striking similarities. Just hadn't heard much about it here...

My husband received a resume recently from a law school grad, top 10% of class, moot court, honors, good work experience, needs to relocate to NYC for family reasons. Cover note indicates WILL WORK AS PARALEGAL, paid or unpaid internship, etc. One law firm just rescinded all offers made to last year's summer class, and cancelled this year's summer program. This cycle is nowhere near maturation.

"great article about dude who thinks that more people will return to being "servants" for room and board because there just won't be jobs."

which one? i want to read it. the retirees without enough savings could end up doing informal jobs to get extra cash. for example, i was thinking that it might become common for older housewives to provide informal domestic work (babysit, cleaning and cooking). i actually met a lady doing that, with great success, she was booked quickly. kind of like "americans stealing immigrant's jobs" (taking them back if you want).

Methinks the Atlas Shrugged comparison is off. In Rand's novel, it is the talented that exit the world in protest to the power of the untalented, leaving it to crumble, whereas in this debacle it was the talented and "free marketers" who crashed the bus. The gov't is stepping in the save the system from their greedy stupidity (greed was a virtue for Rand).

I think this is "Atlas Dropped the Friggin' Globe"

and oops, the globe was made of glass, a very dark glass.

And that dark glass was the crystal ball scrying future that no one can see because ALL IS DARK AND BLACK AND HORRIBLE.

Buck up, folks, we're just reverting to a type of economy that people lived with for centuries. We'll muddle through in the end.

"Buck up, folks, we're just reverting to a type of economy that people lived with for centuries."

great point! there's a reason why the old used to help raising the kids while their parents work. right now, i still hear some old ladies telling their daughters "pay me if you want me to babysit". crazy! i see a return of family safety net as the government/tax payer might not be able to keep providing as it's expected by the old.

"whereas in this debacle it was the talented and "free marketers" who crashed the bus"

I disagree with "talented". Also, in Atlas Shrugged, the provisions were about stopping individuals from being too successful. Can't start more than 1 business (equality of opportunity act or some BS). Those same individuals who were blocked then left the world stage in protest.

Here the primary ones affected are decidedly untalented (they destroyed themselves), and most certainly want lots and lots of government intervention.

"Here the primary ones affected are decidedly untalented (they destroyed themselves), and most certainly want lots and lots of government intervention."

By all metrics until 2008, they were talented. They made gobs of money, ran successful businesses, and followed their own desires not the greater good (that is a good Randian thing). Of course, it just shows you that in real life as opposed to novels things are never clear. That's the issue with Rand's silly idealizations - they have little to do with real life. That and her strange desire to be ravished by business tycoons....

well put, type3.

"By all metrics until 2008, they were talented"

Obviously those metrics were wrong :) The business transactions they entered into were based on lies, and Rand certainly doesn't support fraud as a virtue. See also: Bernie Madoff. I agree that things are never clear - we seem to be preaching to the choir with each other. I also agree that her views on sex are quite insane.

Bottom line is, this isn't the talented few hating what the government is doing and wanting to leave society. This is the untalented few begging for government to do more in order to not get thrown out of high society.

please don't tell me that ayn rand is taken for a serious intellectual on this board. ayn rand?!?! atlas shrugged is a superficial, mean-spririted, mildly entertaining book. it divides the world neatly and totally unrealistically into distinct castes of talented and untalented, and then proposes that the untalented somehow control everything and keep the talented down.

if you want insight into what is going on, read serious intellectual and artistic approaches to power, economics, and human nature: weber, marx, hobbes, niebuhr, burke, montaigne, shakespeare, melville, tolstoy, arendt, nietzsche, smith. those are folks that, love them or hate them, have deep, sophisticated, powerful analyses that you have to come to terms with. ayn rand is a schlock novelist.

"Obviously those metrics were wrong :)"

Sure, but with that knowledge, one would need to look at ANY success with skepticism, knowing how ephemeral such things can be, and never knowing what they were based on. The general consensus (spectacularly wrong in the lead up to this crisis) is a very poor guide.

I agree that Rand saw honesty as a virtue. The only thing she never got was that there can be motivated, greedy, successful people who also violate many of her other beliefs. Well, she likely knew that from real life, but choose to present an abstract idealization in her books, of course.

From wikipedia:

During the 1950s, Greenspan was one of the members of Ayn Rand's inner circle, the Ayn Rand Collective, who read Atlas Shrugged while it was being written. Rand nicknamed Greenspan "the undertaker" because of his penchant for dark clothing and reserved demeanor. Although Greenspan was once recognized as a proponent of laissez-faire capitalism, some Objectivists find his support for a gold standard somewhat incongruous or dubious,[citation needed] given the Federal Reserve's role in America's fiat money system and endogenous inflation. He has come under criticism from Harry Binswanger,[25] who believes his actions while at work for the Federal Reserve and his publicly expressed opinions on other issues show abandonment of Objectivist and free market principles. However, when questioned in relation to this, he has said that in a democratic society individuals have to make compromises with each other over conflicting ideas of how money should be handled. He said he himself had to make such compromises, because he believes that "we did extremely well" without a central bank and with a gold standard.[26] Greenspan and Rand maintained a close relationship until her death in 1982.[15]

Right wing loonies and their Rand, Greenspan fantasies. BARF.

The 82-year-old Mr. Greenspan said he made "a mistake" in his hands-off regulatory philosophy, which many now blame in part for sparking the global economic troubles. He quoted something he had written in March: "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief."

He conceded that he has "found a flaw" in his ideology and said he was "distressed by that."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122476545437862295.html

(In case its not clear, previous post is 100% a quotation from the article, not my own writing. I forgot to add quotation marks)

indeed. i mean, can't the right-wing loonies at least glom on to serious right-wing thinkers? it's not like there aren't any. go read harvey mansfield or robert nozick or milton friedman or samuel huntington.

ayn rand?!!?

I guess Clinton shared those right wing fantasies...

bill clinton is a fan of ayn rand? i don't think so.

Also, she couldn't write worth a damn. Her characters are walking cardborad cutouts. I can't believe anyone with anything better to do spends time reading those atrocious novels. It's nice to know that there are other literary critics of discernment on this board.

wow, jake, that's really weird stuff; the world really IS a small place sometimes

> bill clinton is a fan of ayn rand? i don't think so.

Clinton (re)appointed Greenspan.

Wow, do you really need to brush up on your politics....

this thread is about greenspan? i know who appointed greenspan and i know who reappointed him. by the time clinton reappointed greenspan he was no longer known primarily as an ayn rand acolyte. he was a central banker, obviously far removed from her anti-government mumbo jumbo. clinton reappointing greenspan has less than nothing to do with ayn rand.

"My husband received a resume recently from a law school grad, top 10% of class, moot court, honors, good work experience, needs to relocate to NYC for family reasons. Cover note indicates WILL WORK AS PARALEGAL, paid or unpaid internship, etc. One law firm just rescinded all offers made to last year's summer class, and cancelled this year's summer program. This cycle is nowhere near maturation."

This might be a true story, but VERY different from what I am seeing. Sure, tons of people are losing their jobs, sure compensation is way down (as it should be). In general, I am very bearish, but I have yet to see any desperation approaching that described above. I am seeing job postings in finance (gasp, I know). Most are not very attractive, and there are certainly fewer of them than 1-2 years ago, but they exist. I have a friend laid off from a buyside firm 2-3 months ago, and he has several firms very interested. Most of my newly unemployed friends are still being very selective about what they want, and choosing not to pursue "back-up" jobs.

More specifically, I know tons of lawyers, but the only one I know that lost her job found another within weeks.

I guess this is becoming a rant, but I hate hearing all the superlatives to describe the current situation - crisis, catastrophe, etc. Crisis is people starving to death, or dying in wars. What we are facing is the inevitable consequence of a massive bubble, a consequence that manifests itself in the decline in the standard of living from unsustainable highs. But that's far, far from a crisis or a
catastrophe.

A friend of a friend has a nice two bedroom (bought in '93), a home in Mexico and a home in the Hamptons I bumped into her on the bus and she told me she is coloring and cutting her hair herself (it looks it). I think people who don't need to be are very nervous about the economy

oh no happyrenter say it's not so...I a fan of yours and also of ayn rand..not he politics but her writing.

"I guess this is becoming a rant, but I hate hearing all the superlatives to describe the current situation - crisis, catastrophe, etc."

I'm with you. Obviously news is bad, but there's an added layer of emoting over it, speculating that i only gets worse from here, that it's "the worst since....." In the Great Depression people starved. However, specific to NYC real estate, while keeping an open mind, so far I see only the worst-case scenarios beginning to play out.

And to think that, just a short time ago, newbuyer99 likely loved hearing all the superlatives to describe the [then]current situation -- like "they're not making any more land!" and "buy now or be priced out forever!"

people did starve in the great depression, but guess what? people are starving right now, all over the world. there is plenty of crisis and catastrophe happening right now. a lawyer working as a paralegal (which i find unlikely) is not a crisis.

hr, where did I say this one example is a crisis, it is but a sign of the times. it was specifically in response to the remarks that people would be demoting themselves to obtain employment. he is not employed (as a paralegal or otherwise), has not been employed, and does not have great prospects for being employed in a career path that rarely has such occurrences. he is young, and probably has relatives to help, although I guess I shouldn't assume that. it is just symptomatic. yes, i feel far more for those with three kids and no income, and if you think with the U6 at around 13% there aren't plenty of those situations, then I don't really know what to say. unemployment may not be a crisis, but it's not pretty, and at large enough numbers, it's downright ugly. lowery, sorry for the emoting, that's just the kind of gal I am.

Read AboveTheLaw, Thursday over a thousand attorneys received pink slips, and they've been receiving them in fairly significant numbers since the beginning of the year. A new site just to tally them, lawshucks.

aboutready,

i wasn't criticizing your comments at all, i only think it is unlikely that lawyers are really going to be working as paralegals. the legal profession is for the most part quite insulated from downturns (most lawyers don't do securities law). i was trying to add some nuance to what lowery wrote about people starving in the depression--its true, but there is also starvation now all over the world. as for unemployment, i actually think it can be a crisis. for the vast majority of people it is a crisis. if you have much savings or a strong support network; if your kids get their health insurance through your job etc. etc. unemployment can lead to severe crisis very quickly.

happyrenter, my husband is managing partner at a law firm. you're quite right, lawyers are for the most part insulated from the downturns. that's one of the many reasons this is both fascinating and scary, law firms are shedding 5, 10%, and MORE importantly they're getting rid of future hiring as well. That to me bodes not so well as a general measure of how things are going.

Already over 50 million people don't have health insurance. Being a lawyer without a job may portend some not so pleasant things for the economy, but being one of the 50 million without health insurance may portend something far worse for your family. I think we agree, I meant unemployment today might not meet some people's definition of crisis. It does mine, but I am a nattering nabob of negativity.

"Read AboveTheLaw, Thursday over a thousand attorneys received pink slips, and they've been receiving them in fairly significant numbers since the beginning of the year." - Uggh, this was tonight's topic at the dinner table.

uwsmom - indigestion.

My husband is a partner in a boutique firm in the south. He placed an ad for an associate with several years of experience in Lawyers Weekly last week. He brought home a THICK stack of resumes. Most of the lawyers were let go some time since October. Many of them had strong resumes (some not so strong). The disturbing part of the story is that he had run a simlar ad last year (or the year before I can't remember exactly) and got NO response and had to hire a headhunter at that time to find an associate! "The Times they are a changin"

simlar=similar dropped a letter in my haste

jerkstore - why on earth would you think that? I hate overstatements in both directions, have been bearish on Manhattan RE for as long as I've paid serious attention (i.e. since 2007), and certainly never bought into the bubble. I will not be at all surprised at drops of 50% or more from peak, although who knows, as usual. What I take issue with is people saying those drops would be a catastrophe. There's a difference.

Happyrenter - yes, people are starving to death all over the world, and unfortunately always have. Very, very different story than the US. I have no idea what's going to happen in the future (deflation, hyperinflation, devaluation, depression, recovery, who knows), but what's happening in the US now (yes, today, AFTER the downturn began) is probably equivalent to an overall standard of living that's higher than at any time in our history with the exception of a few bubbles, including the recent one. My checkout clerk at the grocery store the other day had an iphone. Pretty sure she indicative, rather than the exception. Comparable to the Great Depression? Really?

newbuyer, your checkout clerk obviously still has a job. those iphones won't do any good when one can't pay the service charges. the mcmansion won't provide shelter when the bank forecloses. the whole foods won't provide organic produce when the wallet is empty. etc.

we see the people with jobs every day. we don't always see or notice those who are hurting until someone airs a documentary, whereupon a good percentage of people will call it exaggeration. i hope you're right. i hope this is the peak of the problems. but i don't think so.

"lowery, sorry for the emoting, that's just the kind of gal I am."

I wasn't referring to you, or to anyone in specific, only expressing a feeling many people have who are bombarded every day with bad news, and then it gets commented upon by talking heads who give their opinions, which are always along the lines of "not since the 1930s...." and then this working its way down into casual conversation and message boards, in which people are focused on what is admittedly grim, and it all becomes a feedback loop.

I came out of college in a dismal time, the late '70s, and most people who landed jobs were over qualified for them. Law schools grads doing paralegal work? Nothing new there. And yes, bubbles have popped and crashed before, and recessions are hideous, and the last one we felt was in the early '90s, when 20-somethings were in elementary school. No one is suggesting we look at this with rose-tinted glasses.

newbuyer,

i certainly do not think that conditions in the united states today are comparable to the conditions in the great depression--not even close. but i think you should be careful to extrapolate too much from an iphone. we live in a strange time. an iphone now costs $200--not nothing, but certainly nothing compared to the cost of health insurance. i'm sure there are plenty of people who have iphones and no health insurance. in this country a lot of so-called luxury goods are pretty inexpensive, but a lot of actual necessities are out of reach for many people.

Blossom16 and aboutready I agree, I work in a law firm, I get the emails of resumes from lawyers looking for openings, we are not hiring, but in the last 2 months, every week, then day by day the amount of resumes from over-qualified attorneys (and under) are increasing, Newbuyer your cashier has an iphone probably because she bought it on credit that she can't afford.

lowery, I started college in the early '80s. I remember my first summer not even being able to get a job selling produce at a local fruit stand because over 100 unemployed men wanted the minimum-wage seasonal work. McDonalds, same thing. People who had had stable, well-paying jobs were willing to do almost anything. It was dismal. The late '80s-early '90s weren't, as you point out, pretty either.

The only reason I mentioned the law firm aspect is because it IS a bit new. I don't know about the depression, but law firms have remained relatively stable during recessions. Perhaps more difficult to find jobs, but certainly not rescinding offers for an entire class nor handing out over 100 pink slips (some firms over 200) in a couple of months.

happyrenter, you make a very good point. the flat-screen tv has become cheap as a relative expense over time, but certain fixed expenses have become very high.

aboutready, I agree with you that this Big Law pare-down is nearly unprecedented. It's supposed to be a steady business that does fairly well in any kind of business climate. BUT........ in the early '90s there were layoffs in law firms. It hurt. I remember that people moved from law firm associate jobs to government lawyer jobs and felt grateful to be making $65,000. I've been watching the developments with a pit in my stomach, fighting off the fear and panic and the memories of my transition. I don't mean in any way to make light of things. I wonder if there may be a post-Internet groupthink, though. It's more than simply everyone plugging into the news via Internet all day long - we get TV updates throughout the day at coffee shops, in elevators, in waiting rooms. At some point someone needs to be a leader here and remind us all that we have nothing to fear but fear itself. But by this I am not intending to imply that Manhattan real estate is immune or is close to bottoming out or is a safe investment or anything else. I do believe it's naive for us to think that the silver lining in this cloud is more affordable housing for the middle classes. We all get clobbered. That's why home prices go down, because we're all clobbered. For example, if someone had all their money tied up in equity funds to wait for the day when coops are 50% off the peak, and their downpayment money is nuked, then they don't get their more affordable home. Just one example.