where are all the idiots who made the 2007 doomsday predictions?!?

Except none of that stuff did happen by the end of 2007. I don't get your obsession with that thread.

Steve thinks that he is the only one who saw this crisis coming and still thinks that he is the only one who understands that our economy is in trouble

steve didn't see this crisis coming

"What is it that makes people STILL think - as so many (JuiceMan) do - that all of this will have little to no effect on Manhattan real estate prices."

You have no idea what I think but your obsession with me is flattering.

> Except none of that stuff did happen by the end of 2007.

Its why they call it a bubble... you're not sure when its gonna pop, but you know it is.

But is this the game you're really gonna play? "Yes, you called an unprecendeted global crisis, but you called it 6 months early, so its meaningless". Yet outdating housing numbers, you LOVE those.

Better to have gotten out of the dot com bubble 6 months early rather than 6 months late...

I am so tired to read stevejhx's postings.

He probably got tired of a lot of folks' postings a year ago.

Difference is, he wasn't wrong...

"Steve didn't see this crisis coming"

The housing crisis?

Please! I posted it over a year ago.

The market crisis? Not a year ago, but I was taken to task by someone when I said the Dow was HEADED TOWARD 6500.

It currently stands at 7336.

"Except none of that stuff did happen by the end of 2007."

No. It started in 1Q2008.

Big deal. One month.

Still didn't see Lehman coming.
But did see Citigroup. Inside information?

Actually, uppereast, steve's been very quiet this last few weeks, so much so that some regulars, I don't if seriously or tongue-in-cheek, claimed for his presence the other day. As for the other issue, the bulls are trying hard not to get crushed by the weight of the evidence, either arguing that steve was 6 months too early or that THEY actually predicted all this. Like the king of liars, LICComment, who just 2 days ago claimed to have predicted a 15-25% decline 9ms ago, whereas what he was aggressively predicting even in Dec was that NYC RE could only go up up up. Only 6 months ago EddieWilson got so sick of arguing with him and his posse that NYC RE was falling and will continue to fall, that he took a break saying "we'll see in Feb 09 who is right". Guess what?

"Still didn't see Lehman coming."

Last March I did predict Lehman was likely to fail. What I didn't think would happen was that the government would let it go bankrupt. That's what led to this current mess. Things would be bad, but nowhere near this bad, and we'd all be a lot richer.

"But did see Citigroup. Inside information?"

I did see Citigroup, as well, but I have no inside information on it and never owned it. Never understood what they were doing; never understood their business model.

"But is this the game you're really gonna play? "Yes, you called an unprecendeted global crisis, but you called it 6 months early, so its meaningless". Yet outdating housing numbers, you LOVE those."

Yeah, that's not what I'm saying. These earth-shattering predictions were made again and again for YEARS. All predicting it was right around the corner and always revising them, saying the same thing: it was just around the corner. Anyone paying any attention knew a bubble would deflate at some point. But just screaming it non-stop and eventually being right years later is not particularly impressive, just a bit annoying. Steve was actually much more accurate than most people. The doomsday thread wasn't really directed at him.

"Only 6 months ago EddieWilson got so sick of arguing with him and his posse that NYC RE was falling and will continue to fall, that he took a break saying "we'll see in Feb 09 who is right". Guess what?"

Trompiloco, you do realize he's been posting this whole time, right?

Letting Lehman fail was a bad mistake.

stevejhx was one of the earliest voices stressing how bad this crisis was. This goes back more than a year, like 13-15 months. I argued with him and we agreed on almost everything except that gold is money. Recall that Stevjhx?

Its hard to put yourself back into time & place now, after the destruction happened, as everyone I speak to now claims to have seen it coming. yea right. At the time almost everybody downplayed the specific arguments on how this crisis would unfold, how fed rate cuts wont help, how stimulus wont help, how subprime will spread to higher quality debt classes, how banks are technically insolvent, and how IBs are about to fail as they attempt to delever. I got emails like 15 months ago asking why I am choose to be so doomy, and if I had a plan to take down Manhattan real estate through media - urbandigs. Seriously, I did.

And everyone argued how Manhattan was different, shielded, powered by foreigners, will be cushioned, and was full of sideline buyers waiting to buy if we fall 5%. They argued these points very emotionally. Its not easy to put yourself back into time & place, when the first warning signs were explained in detail.

Yes I recall all of that, urbandigs, except that "gold isn't money." I said it's not a good investment, and is no more valuable as "money" than a fiat currency - it's worth what people think it's worth - which is why I wouldn't invest in it. Or anything else, for that matter, right now, except for what I have (not worth very much anymore!) - keeping the rest in good old-fashioned cash.

Fortunately, except for December my business has remained very strong. That blindsided me a little bit about the seriousness of the downturn, which my mother (in Florida) insisted was very bad. She was right; I was wrong.

I'm glad you finally admit to being the cause of this, UD, through your posts. I accept my responsibility as well.

Housing in Manhattan has a long, long way to fall still. The stock market may recover once the bank mess is sorted out in the next few weeks, but on the whole housing prices are still 100% more than equivalent rents. That cannot last.

"Like the king of liars, LICComment, who just 2 days ago claimed to have predicted a 15-25% decline 9ms ago, whereas what he was aggressively predicting even in Dec was that NYC RE could only go up up up."

Trompiloco, do you want to start your apology to LICC or proclaim your total ignorance?

LICComment
about 6 months ago
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Eddie, for all that you and I disagree, we have a fairly similar view on this. My guess would be 10%-20% off the peak in Manhattan, with lots of variance based on neighborhood, type of building, etc.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4465-how-much-will-nyc-decline

My favorite was LICComment. Talk about someone who was in complete and utter denial! Listen, I'm not saying that I take any pleasure in this downturn. I'm just pointing out how annoying it was to read the non-sense he/she was dishing out for so long.

Stevejhx showed up towards the end of 2007...there were poeple other than him on the board...but he was certainly the most strident of the bears. he probably saved a some people a fair amount of money...which is more than I can say for the 2007 vintage real estate bulls

kudos to you Steve

But please stop it with Lehman already...what we are seeing now is destiny...Lehman or not

Stevejhx - in regards to gold as money, or as you say, isn't money:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5195-cramer-says-to-buy-gold

stevejhx
about 3 months ago
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"Good to have some gold in your portfolio anyway."

Why? It doesn't pay a dividend, and has virtually no industrial uses not equally served with copper at a much lower price. If paper money is fiat, gold is worse.

stevejhx
about 3 months ago
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"I view gold as money."

That's the problem. It's not money. It pays no interest or dividend, it does not have the backing of the government, its supply can't be controlled. It's nothing at all like the modern concept of money.

In fact, adjusted for inflation, gold has not recovered to the 1969 price, when the gold standard was abandoned.

http://66.38.218.33/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

These predictions are lame.

How about this prediction? Things will get worse then better, then housing and the stock market will recover. I'm not going to say when, because according to posters, it doesn't matter when, just that your predictions come true.

Another prediction - it will be 80 degrees in New York. When doesn't matter. Maybe June, maybe August.
Yet another obvious prediction - gas prices will rise to be at levels we saw 5 months ago, $4.00+ a barrel. When, I don't know.

Absolutely ridiculousness. Some people just have to remnd themselves that they are right. But it is the timing that is important, not the prediction.

UD, I know all the arguments for gold. I just don't believe them. Other people do - then they should invest in them.

This thread is one of my first posts:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2874-any-weekend-open-house-anecdotes-29-210

I stand by it.

oldbuyers - just doesnt get it. never will.

Stevejhx - thats fine. But these are the reasons why money is pouring into gold. Im afraid it will get silly though, and that is my out. I worry what the world will be like if gold hits 1500, or at least the state of the global financial system. So far gold has proven to be an excellent excellent investment since mid 2007 for me, and I have 60% of my original position still on. Nobody can hit the top, so Ill sell in pieces as it goes. Better than listening to all the bottom callers on CNBC who expect a stock to rise because it fell from 80 to 30; with no other fundamentals beyond a lower price. Investments like that are foolish, and make people less wealthy. This is a lack of faith in paper money situation, and that is why I like gold. Period.

Ignore or join? Towel-snappers are racing past your locker.

steve, that thread was a blast from the past. I guess some things never change. How about that 12% YOY return?

JuiceMan
about 12 months ago
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steve - "There is a tax benefit to owning, but also an opportunity cost on the $235,000 down payment. If you make the historical stock-market average of 12% on $235,000, that's $28,200 in lost income per year, or 53% of the rent at Chelsea Landmark. If you're in the 33% (net, not marginal) tax bracket, you would save $20,294.19 in taxes based on the mortgage shown on the website, decreasing over time, whereas the income on $235,000 would compound over time."

JuiceMan - Who makes 12% YOY? Especially in this market! Not many. There is a significant amount of risk that you haven’t adjusted for on that 12% (you could lose 20% one year), the tax deduction is risk free. Also, you are neglecting the fact that ~14% of your first mortgage payment goes to principal (using the $1.175M example), increasing over time. Assuming zero appreciation, that principal payment "goes in the bank". What part of your rental payment "goes in the bank"? Doesn't an owner’s interest payment get smaller over time whereas a rent payment gets larger? Shouldn’t you be comparing interest payments vs. rent payments? Also, property tax is deductible, have you figured that in?

That said, I feel you are bringing up some very useful and valid points for new buyers to consider, especially for new developments. Some of these new devs are going to require significant market appreciation over the next few years to become viable investments. Where you lost me is applying a general 25% correction across the board. I think it depends on the situation, the neighborhood, and type of product. If you look at the rent vs. buy thread, there is an article about rent vs. buy spreads that in my opinion, would favor buying. You can’t generalize an entire market based upon two Chelsea properties that you think are comparable, when they may not really be.

Finally, are you saying that over the next five years we will see a correction in Manhattan real estate of 25%? Or are you saying that for a subset of the market?

"The market crisis? Not a year ago, but I was taken to task by someone when I said the Dow was HEADED TOWARD 6500."

Yes, right after you then said "I never said we were going to 6500".

You weren't taking to task for the prediction, you were taken to task for then claiming you didn't do it, and saying the dow would then be going up.

Tsk, tsk, Steve...

The major issue right now is bank toxic assets, and what to value them at. With luck we will have a resolution to that shortly. Unfortunately, it is taking so long that it is doing serious damage to the economy. Investors want to pay 5 cents on the dollar, banks think they're worth 95 cents (and they probably are) but have them marked to 50 cents, and therein lies the stalemate.

You'd better have a trailing stop on your gold - you might wake up one day and find it worth nothing. It's happened before.

> Anyone paying any attention knew a bubble would deflate at some point.

ROTFL. Funny to be saying that NOW.

Well, then I guess most of this board and this planet were not paying attention.... because the majority were certainly saying the opposite.... hell, consider the exact thread Steve is talking about.

My favorite is 13 months ago:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2651-where-are-all-the-idiots-who-made-the-2007-doomsday-predictions

urbandigs
about 13 months ago
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Also, put me down for:

1. foreigners having to sell new devs at a loss
2. new dev closings be pressured by changed lending environment, appraisals not coming in, and/or buyers cant get loan commitment.

I think its naive to think 15,000-20,000 units will close smoothly with no problems at all, and only few being resold on open market. Sure, these guys are in contract and off market now, but we still have worry about banks lending for properties purchased at over $1,400+ a sft AFTER a credit crunch began

And, of course, its time to give kudos to the few who WERE paying attention.

steve, take your bow (just not on the 6500 thing)

Remember Spunky's comment, he believed so deeply that this crisis was not going to be severe or affect Manhattan in JAN 2008 - I hope sellers didnt listen:

spunky
about 13 months ago
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Urbandigs is recommending any potential buyer to hold off buying in Manhattan and I'm recommending any potential seller in Manhattan hold off selling

Found it!

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."

- Steve

who then went on to explain how "heading" is not thats where we were going, its just directional, or something where he didn't have intercourse with that woman or something.

steve is THE MAN of streeteasy... time for you sheeple to recognize

I guess this is the gloating thread.

UD, Steve... spotlight is yours.

And whee is Spunky anyway?

I like this line from the old thread:

"But you can buy some pretty good interest rates with preferred stock from Bank of America." Today...not so much. How times have changed.

It also looks like Steve was saying, at one point, that 20X rent was a reasonable estimation.

JM - some arguments never die or change, huh?

"It also looks like Steve was saying, at one point, that 20X rent was a reasonable estimation."

I said that 20x rent makes sense if you use imputed rent - quite different from the other things we were discussing. On a price-to-rent ratio, the figure is 12x, and I've always said that.

And NYC, I did say that we were headed toward 6500, not that we would reach it, however the Dow is currently below 7300, so don't discount the possibility. Once we broke through the technical level yesterday, ANYTHING is possible.

It seemed the bottom would hold - I thought it would - but the lack of a clear bank plan ruined that.

"But you can buy some pretty good interest rates with preferred stock from Bank of America."

Actually, you can get 30% interest on BofA preferred today. People think it will be nationalized. It won't.

> And NYC, I did say that we were headed toward 6500, not that we would reach

Yes, thats what I said. I just pointed it out because it does contradict your asking for credit here:

"The market crisis? Not a year ago, but I was taken to task by someone when I said the Dow was HEADED TOWARD 6500."

Particularly when you changed course and said it would not happen because of stimulus, etc. That was not one you should be bragging about.

Just keeping you honest...

stevejhx: investors want to pay 5 cents on the dollar, banks think they are worth 95 cents (which they probably are) ...WTF?

There are no CMOs,CDOs etc. that the banks have that are worth 95 cents...you always have to push it don't you?

its bad enough you are gloating on an anonymous internet board...

"Just keeping you honest..."

nyc10022, since you are in the mood to keep people honest, would you say that EddieWilson still feels the same way as he did 6 months ago regarding correction %?

EddieWilson
about 6 months ago
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Cool, now we're getting there.

BTW, sorry, in my post, I meant to say 16% Manhattan, 23% Brooklyn, and I'll add in 21% for other 3 boros...

"Particularly when you changed course and said it would not happen because of stimulus, etc. That was not one you should be bragging about."

Not the stimulus - I said the TARP, which Paulsen reversed. But I also said at the time that you shouldn't gloat because the future was uncertain, and that we might reach that level - I said the fat lady hadn't sung yet, figuratively speaking.

flmd, I'm talking MBS's, for which there is no market. If 95% of borrowers are current on their mortgages, all things being equal those securities should be worth 95 cents on the dollar or more, since once a foreclosed property is sold, part of the loan is recovered.

The problem is that no one knows how to value them, because each individual security is unique. Like Argentine bonds, however, someday someone is going to make a lot of money on this.

On a lighter note, this is really funny:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVQZ3gMfsdQ

"Even interracial families can enjoy them" LMAO

Whatever became of anoone3? When not pumping RE, he and malraux (same person) were classic Hirst diamond-encrusted-jock sniffers:

Jerkstore
about 15 months ago
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report abuse CUT TO: anoone3, sweaty, alone and seething with self-hatred, desperately hitting "refresh" on streeteasy while navigating auction websites in other open windows.

INSERT: Post-It stuck to computer monitor:

"Mondays: spunky
Tuesdays: pseudonym
Wednesdays: anoone3
Thursdays..."

I liked, "What is that? Cat food?"

"ROTFL. Funny to be saying that NOW.

Well, then I guess most of this board and this planet were not paying attention.... because the majority were certainly saying the opposite...."

Really? Why do you flat out twist the truth? To make yourself feel good? Many of us saw what was going on and were reading urbandigs and others. No, not everyone, but not everyone is a petrfitz (thank God). You don't have to believe me, but here. Get over yourself:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3445-shiller-housing-slump-may-exceed-depression

Get a grip, bjw. Noting a couple of exceptions doesn't change the fact... most people did NOT see the bubble as a bubble.

Hell, dco got run off the board for saying things would crash. And, hell, this board is relatively progressive. Check out the rest of the world at large.

Hell, if most people knew it was a bubble, IT WOULD NOT BE A BUBBLE.

> Why do you flat out twist the truth? To make yourself feel good?

Why do you come up with nonsense claims just to disagree? Does it make you feel better?

Saying most folks knew this was going to happen is just ridiculous.

And, btw, that is QUITE a backpedal from...

"Anyone paying any attention knew"

then to

"Many of us saw what was going on"

Fact is, the majority of the world had no idea. Streeteasy had guys like dco and steve saying it early, and perhaps that informed a few more people than usual. But they were the clear exception.

"Hell, dco got run off the board for saying things would crash."

Uh, no. Nobody was "run off." dco was over the top, that's all. I don't think "most" people were convinced we'd hit a peak in '07, but many people here certainly recognized that real estate would not go up forever. That's not the same thing as saying "70%! Crash!" but if that's what makes you happy, so be it. To me, those people were just as hysterical as those proclaiming up 15% for '09.

I guess nyc10022 is interested in keeping everyone honest but himself

> To me, those people were just as hysterical as those proclaiming up 15% for '09.

Given that the stock market is down 50%, saying down 70% has now been proven MUCH less hysterical than predicting up 15%...

> but many people here certainly recognized that real estate would not go up forever.

Still quite a far cry from your initial claim.

But, glad to see you've backpedalled away from it. It was not accurate.

"Given that the stock market is down 50%, saying down 70% has now been proven MUCH less hysterical than predicting up 15%..."

No, we're talking about real estate. I still think it's just as nuts. Sorry.

"Still quite a far cry from your initial claim.
But, glad to see you've backpedalled away from it. It was not accurate."

No, this was my initial claim: "Anyone paying any attention knew a bubble would deflate at some point." How is that not "accurate" again?

"I guess nyc10022 is interested in keeping everyone honest but himself"

Took the words right out of my mouth.

> No, we're talking about real estate. I still think it's just as nuts. Sorry.

Same way some folks felt about any major decline just a few months back.

> Took the words right out of my mouth.

Yes, irony of the week!

.. coming from the guy with the funniest claims of all time (short of spunky and perfitz)

nyc, I don't recall you posting under that name when the spunkster was active. Who were you back then?

I do miss spunky, however. And so, so many others!

I was not around for spunky, that I recall... I've just read a lot of his posts in these flashbacks.

"I guess nyc10022 is interested in keeping everyone honest but himself"

Not to mention... we're ONLY talking about the folks who just tried to brag about the accuracy of the accuracy of their own predictions... Steve and Juiceman.

Juiceman wouldn't have been so funny if he hadn't claimed he was more accurate than just about anyone yesterday...

I think I've been relatively accurate.

stevie & ud: good to see ya both back.

Steve: cnbc was talking about dow 6500 today; I thought of you & fancy feast.

"nyc, I don't recall you posting under that name when the spunkster was active. Who were you back then?"

LMAO

"coming from the guy with the funniest claims of all time (short of spunky and perfitz)"

still dancing around the truth aren't we? Poor nyc10022, he is dying to come out of the EddieWilson closet but can't. Note nyc10022’s use of the symbol “>” above when quoting another poster. Check out this post from EddieWilson 6 months ago. Coincidence?

EddieWilson
about 6 months ago
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> 40% over 10 years doesn't beat inflation (let alone opportunity cost
> and all that), but I can't imagine how someone can own in Manhattan
> be up only 40% between 1998 and 2008

You didn't understand the post. Noone said that. Read it again...

> If you had a 100% increase, a 30% decline now means you have a 40% total increase.

No one said the increase was only 40%. We're just pointing out here what happens to a 100% increase after a 30% decline sets in... it means you don't beat inflation over 10 years... (really 12 years, because we've got at least a couple years of shakeout).

"still dancing around the truth aren't we? Poor nyc10022, he is dying to come out of the EddieWilson closet but can't. Note nyc10022’s use of the symbol “>” above when quoting another poster. Check out this post from EddieWilson 6 months ago. Coincidence?"

Hilarious. And he avoids the question each time - and he's been asked quite a few times now. It's just bizarre.

wow, did I hit a nerve! Funny to see how quick the wonder twins respond!

> I think I've been relatively accurate.

On RE, you've definitely been up there. Equity, I wouldn't talk about that one too much.

"wow, did I hit a nerve!"

Standard nyc10022 response instead of answering the question. Is that your shiny object?

Hit a nerve? What spin! And still avoiding the issue. It is to laugh.

I might have been mistaken but I'm not terribly ready to apologize. There's a difference between 10-20% and 15-25%, and there's a difference between admitting the downturn of NYC RE before sept. 08 and after. I mean, we're already 3 months away from mid Nov. and the DJIA is surpassing those terrifying lows, so at that point it was very clear all hell was breaking loose. "About 6 ms ago" as the streeteasy thread marks LICC statement may well be 4 ms ago, and that's really late to present yourself as a visionary. Or to quote McCain "the fundamentals of our economy are sound, my friends", and that was probably Sept. and it was laughable already.

> And still avoiding the issue.

ROTFLMAO.

Both of you clearly trying to take attention away from the actual point of the thread.

My hypocrisy meter just went through the roof!

> It is to laugh.

You can say that again...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVQZ3gMfsdQ

Steve, is the economy so bad that you can't afford fancy feast burgers?

lmao

"Both of you clearly trying to take attention away from the actual point of the thread."

And you have the gall to accuse others of "hall-monitoring." And still avoiding the issue. Ok, enough feeding the troll for one day.

> And you have the gall to accuse others of "hall-monitoring."

And, yes, you're doing THAT too.

Outside of cursing, there is little much else you can do wrong on this thread. I'd expect better of the teacher's pet.

"I might have been mistaken but I'm not terribly ready to apologize. There's a difference between 10-20% and 15-25%, and there's a difference between admitting the downturn of NYC RE before sept. 08 and after. I mean, we're already 3 months away from mid Nov. and the DJIA is surpassing those terrifying lows, so at that point it was very clear all hell was breaking loose. "About 6 ms ago" as the streeteasy thread marks LICC statement may well be 4 ms ago, and that's really late to present yourself as a visionary. Or to quote McCain "the fundamentals of our economy are sound, my friends", and that was probably Sept. and it was laughable already."

Agreed...

"I thought of you & fancy feast."

LMAO.

dwell, the vid link was sent to me by a San Diego client - no one who shares my predilection. :0

"Equity, I wouldn't talk about that one too much."

I don't think anybody's been too accurate on that one, nyc. I was accurate enough to keep a lot of cash.

> I don't think anybody's been too accurate on that one, nyc.

True... but I don't think anybody else tried to brag about their accuracy....

> I was accurate enough to keep a lot of cash.

And bet big on China...

(I did warn you about China, didn't I...)

stevejhx is one of the best posters on the site..i'm always learning and appreciate his insight, others are ali and west81st.. they're terrific.

Here is another one steve. Hilarious.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQssF0v8_I4&feature=channel_page

I thought I was your favorite julia :(

good one, juice: ruff sex on the couch?

"And bet big on China..."

Actually, I sold China in February, and repurchased it after Lehman. I'm still down since then (what isn't?) but not in the way you think.

Julia, nothing personal, but you'll live a better life with JuiceMan than with me. I make better posts, but could not satisfy you otherwise.

JM - hilarious! "Fucking mend those fucking ugly clothes."

Whenever I see this commercial I wonder - what's the difference between a "bonding agent" and glue? Because best as I can tell....