At what price would you buy?

under 1000 psf across the board

600

500

440psf and i am there with a smile!!

I think this is helpful - now sellers know if they MUST sell, that is where the "buy it now" bid is ... if they need not sell, they can hold out for better.

Depends on geography, co-op vs condo, apt condition and amenities, but these sellers who think a co-op in a mid-century no amenities building that needs work is really still worth $900-$1000 psf are nuts. Oh, and they wonder why they aren't selling :-). I'm thinking $750-$800 for "it needs no real work", building has some nice offerings, etc.

i would buy prime manhattan at 450-500/sq ft.

It's easy to come on here and say "I will buy for 100 psft", but how many of you are serious buyers? I think buyers with a strong need/desire to buy will likely make deals in the 800-900 range for an average property. The level of snark on this board prevents a reasonable assessment to a question like this.

"800-900 range for an average property."

For a very good location or building, 800-900 sounds right. But for "an average property"? Average in Manhattan isn't all that great. Old and run down, or post-war white brick. Neither of which commanded 800-900psf until very recently.

650-700 older non doorman/nothing special needs updating
770-850- new building ...move in ready

These prices are of course below 90th street

If I were currently renting, I'd look to buy a place for no more than half my net worth or whatever number I feel happy to lose completely. Outlook is grim these days.

I think buying would be ok in two years from now....you never know..

another way of stating the question is, at what price are you willing to buy into the risk that your price is not the bottom?

In Brownstone Brooklyn, I would take that risk at $250/sf. I personally think Brooklyn is among the most inflated areas and has very far to fall.

In Manhattan, south of say 135th St., I would pay up it to $300/sf. I wouldn't buy east of Fifth simply because I don't know the eastside very well, but on the westside I would buy, also midtown or downtown.

I would add that I think both price levels are actually fairly risky. In other words, I think there is a good chance that prices will fall lower than that AND that it could take a very long time for prices to bounce back up.

Most people have no idea how bad things are in the economy. We no longer have a functioning financial system. We're living in the third world in terms of the availability of capital.

If that doesn't get cured by either the govt or the market, we're in for a very bad time, when $250/sf will look like a great deal of money.

OK, you are out of your mind...

OTNYC...800-900psf is not much lower than what we have been seeing for the past few years at the peak of the market...i'm sure you realize that psf is going to drop and much lower than it has been.

RE Sellers are a little like the banks that are holding troubled assets. While the banks have been holding onto their troubled assets (the gov't with its TARP is not allowing for price discovery of their troubled assets), the RE Sellers are listing their apts and the price discovery process is only beginning. You see sellers acting like banks as if they were to sell their troubled assets. They want a price that does not make sense, so you see these large offerings and other attempts to get the RE Seller's "mark price". But RE Buyers don't think the RE Sellers mark price is accruate.
Only after Price Discovery where we see the RE Seller being realistic will the process function.

streetview agreed.

Seriously, who would buy in this market? Things that I need to see pass b/f buying:
1) GM/Chrysler/Ford bankrupcty,
2) Unemployment hits 11%, and is starting to level off with job growth accelerating,
3) No asset mark downs in the insurance industry for 3 qtrs,
4) Nationalization of BOA/Citibank,
5) DJIA hit 6000 (in a final final freefall),
6) Jessica Simpson lose some weight.

And even then, NYC RE will lag all of the above for 6-12 months... and distress sales will set comps.... when I have a 51% chance market NYC RE may go up and rent to buy ratio works for my income... then I'll start looking seriously again....

But then you will be too late, w67thstreet. Once all these things have happened, the real estate market will already be in recovery mode and you will have missed the bottom. I don't think that real estate will go up soon but when it does, there are so many buyers that have been waiting for years to jump in.

Right now 0% chance of NYC RE going up...

That wasn't my point. Read again. I said that when all these things have happened, you have missed the bottom.

And plus many of you are quoting prices at which you can AFFORD to buy. I bet the reason most of you didn't buy is that you didn't have the money not because you thought the market is going to tank.

uppereast, I'd have to disagree. I read once that more "family unit" creations happened in the last 10 years than anytime in history. Meaning that as the "upside" of RE got to be 100%, single people, students, boyfriends/girlfriends, roomies, renters, (people that in a normally functioning market would've just rented, stayed wtth mom/dad, or roommated), bought leading to this crazy "family unit creation." Please don't even get me started with the nail salon worker who owned 6 homes in LA. These are not "sideliners," they are "DONE, NO MAS." And Jessica will never be skinny again :( OH well, she milked the system when she could.... good for her!

uppereast, this real estate down cycle will probably take at least 7 or so years to play out. You're going to have a whole generation of first-time buyers unable to do so due to credit restrictions, another generation of retiring/empty-nest baby boomers needing to downsize and/or cash out because the retirement fund was destroyed, etc.

The worst we bottom feeders will likely face is sideways movement. This will be a bottom for the ages. Oh, and I sold because I thought the market was going to tank. I haven't been able to afford what I'd like, what would compel me to buy instead of rent, for the last few years. I hardly feel that is an insult to me, or reflects poorly on my judgment.

RE is a slow moving beast.... it'll bounce around bottom for a year or two, and if I miss 10% upside, who cares... just avoid the 50% downside on a 5x leverage asset... that's all folks... gotta find my carrot..

uppereast, my wife and i lost a bid on a $2.5MM condo... had $1MM down... after that, I bought her an $80K tiffany ring and said we'll rent.... cheapest piece of jewelry ever bought :)

I'm curious - why are you such a bull, uppereast? Don't you rent? I'm a bear, and I own.

just a bump, for amusment........