there are so many sideline buyers commenting on Streeteasy

luckily that time is far away

at Dow 6500 i don't think so....

of manhattan real estate? it seems like most people on her are saying they are waiting until 2010.

forget 2010..as soon as perception changes it'll be every man for himself and we are getting close to a bottom. The equity market tells me so.

If this is the bottom then I'm not a sideline buyer. Not a buyer at all.

steveF (aka the ponzi guy), the ponzi scheme not quite working out for you anymore? or are you still hoping you can find teh next generation of suckers?

even if and it's a big if but even if we are getting close to the bottom of the stock market, i don't think anyone would agree that we are even near the bottom of the manhattan real estate market yet.

not even close

Steve - it takes b@lls to say what you're saying at this moment, when the tide is clearly monumentally bearish. But no one on here predicting 50% drops would be wasting their time if they weren't actually interested in buying at some point. When that point comes, and at what price is open for debate, but I for one agree with you that at some time in the future, the flood gates will open, and there will be a swarm of buyers descending on inventory. Again, don't think it is this month or even this year, but I do see it happening at some point in the next 3 years. Unless we hit 20% unemployment and stay there - then all bets are off and we are seriously f'ed.

How did I know it was steveF!

And eric_cartman - welcome back!

non seasonally-adjusted U-6 rate is 16%, 14.8% for seasonally adjusted.

Good grief, not another "buyers on the sidelines" argument/thread.

Didn't we kill that along with the "foreigners will save us" argument/threads?

Guess not. yet.

As Noah has correctly states at his very informative blog UrbanDigs.com:

"buyer confidence has not only declined, but has been shattered; as prices fall and fundamentals deteriorate, more buyers have rushed to the sidelines rather than jump into the market to take advantage of deals. The sideline money theory (the argument, mostly by brokers, that there will be a floor on prices because buyers will flock to pick up deals from the sidelines on even the most minuscule of price adjustments) was proven wrong once again"

How many times will we have to prove this theory wrong again? The horse is dead already. Stop beating it people.

SteveF warned this sideline buyer about the imminent 'stampede' of other sideline buyers that would run me over in a rush to buy all the great deals out there.

That was four months ago. Still waiting for the rumble ...

I'm beginning to think that SteveF is actually a housing bear engaged in a type of reverse psychology. By starting threads that are so ridiculous that they cry out for a response, he gets 15-20 people to say over and over that we are nowhere near the bottom. Very clever SteveF! With the overwhelming responses you have received nobody will ever believe we are approaching a bottom!

The keyword is I-N-D-E-F-I-N-I-T-E-L-Y. I think the sideliners are actually waiting for the prices to really go down. I am for sure, it's not like I did not lose money with the 401K and the stocks, so...

malthus, sort of like Rufus made us feel good about being New Yorkers, stevef makes us feel good about not buying.

I also suspect that unfortunately by the time prices make sense, a lot of us sideliners may no longer be in a position to buy. Layoffs are a very real threat and compensation in many fields (at least banking and related) is coming down even if you are still employed.

"I also suspect that unfortunately by the time prices make sense, a lot of us sideliners may no longer be in a position to buy. "

or relocated to another place in the country with nicer weather and lower taxes.

If we're no longer in a position to buy, then it certainly will be a good thing that we didn't do so. I'm with admin, if I finally have to be pushed out of here, let there at least be an improvement in the weather.

Malthus: That has been my suspicion for some time. Dumb like a fox.

Actions speak louder than words steveF, are you currently buying/hoarding as many properties as possible so you can laugh in our faces when we all rush in to purchase your properties during this Adam Sandler movie? Surely you must be doing that if you think the worst is over right.... RIGHT? If so, which one? I would like to add them to my saved sales and keep track of the plummeting prices so then during your open houses, I can tell you how ridiculously you have priced the apartments, have a chuckle and leave.

Unemployment rate is 8.1% and climbing, there is a 90 min wait for a 3 min interview at job fair (in NYC no less), for every positive news the market sends out, it is dwarfs by 15 other bad news, the world economy is plummeting fast and furious, and you are alluding the worst is over and people should buy? You sound more like either of the main characters from Dumb and Dumber, take your pick.

"man what a pile up we're gonna have when the time is right to buy....it's gonna look like an Adam Sandler movie."

Uh, yeah, thats not how real estate works. Folks will spend YEARS fearing real estate. And the few that are bold might not have the cash to do it anyway.

Again, took FOUR YEARS after the stock market bottomed in 87 for housing prices to recover in NYC.

And isn't this the same SteveF who called the bottom like 10 times before?

"admin, if I finally have to be pushed out of here, let there at least be an improvement in the weather."

Let's move to French Riviera. Nice weather, laid-back lifestyle. :)

cleanslate, exactly. i'd go live amongst those damn european socialists in a second.

JuiceMan (come out, come out, wherever you are!) also predicted that these significant price falls would be a signal for people to come rushing in.

Not.

Because it's still not possible to buy an apartment and make money (or break even) by renting it out to an unrelated third party.

That is the threshold. We have a long way to go.

is someone calling me from outside the bomb shelter... GO away...

I've been saying this for a while... whatever "sideline" buyers there were will be VASTLY outnumbered by folks trying to LEAVE this market. That doesn't do anything positive for prices.

Also, as long as we keep having people saying things like "man what a pile up we're gonna have", we'll just keep declining.

A lot of buyers?
Compared to what? Compared to the sales that will close this week? Compared to this week in 2006?
No one is buying because everyone is sure that the market is being crushed.
No one is buying because the number of qualified buyers is tiny.
The chance at a Jumbo or Super Jumbo is slim.
The chance of selling and trading up is non-exsistant.
So who are the buyers?
Rich dumb europeans and russians? Not any more!
Renters with deep pockets,superb credit scores and, very secure professions.
That might be your dentist.
How many do you really think there are compared to the inventory?
Me and the other 4 buyers will get back to you.

Nobody is a forced buyer. There is no loaded gun at any buyers head demanding they sign a contract.

Everyone on the sidelines who was thinking of buying is watching in slow motion the Manhattan real estate train careens off the tracks. They are all thinking "boy am I glad I am not on that train" at the same time the sellers are thinking "This can't possibly be another Vegas or Miami? or can it?" As the saga unfolds we all start to realize yes it can. Yes it can.

Nobody has to buy. And just because something is on sale does not mean you need to buy it. Everyone who is thinking of buying currently lives somewhere else. There are no homeless space aliens parachuting into Central Park in desperate need of a classic 6 before dark. For the buyer, time is on your side. Yes it is.

Are there sellers who have to sell? Are there sellers who must hit the bid and sell? Will moving vans be clogging the bridges and tunnels leaving Manhattan? Will supply overwhelming demand send prices lower? Rhetorical question Farley, no need to answer a rhetorical question. Set of 10!

Principal: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

not a sandler fan but this gets a huge laugh from me every time:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA

Jake - I actually saw a homeless space alien in the Park. What do you think it was?

lo888,

When did you see the homeless space alien in the Park? Was it before or after dark? Could have been my daughter in her snow suit with her plastic lime green space craft, er, sled. gonna get a big cup of hot chocolate. (sounds like a take on a Warren Zevon song - aahhwwoooo....space aliens of Central Park)
But she also is not in the market for a classic 6.

I'm thinking quality apartments will be higher, yes, higher Q1-2 2010 than Q1-2 2009.

You heard it here first!!!

As a sideline buyer I think it is silly, just plain silly, to posit or worry about a buying rush. I won't buy until levels become sane, which to me means 600psf or lower for a nice area. Also, in a severe downturn I would think that as deals become better and better over time that selective buyers will trickle in; and I don't see what could trigger a sudden rush.

Steve always seems to be predicting a rush..
"Looks like we've got a house full of bears...well then it's time to buy. The fed has pumped 1 TRILLION dollars into the market already. What does that mean a year from now...inflation. Which in turn means assets become more valuable. It's not rocket science here, it's all been done before, this time is no different."

Oh yeah, this was... A YEAR AGO...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3181-poll-whats-going-to-happen-to-re-market-in-ny

Only when Steve stops calling a bottom can there be an actual bottom.

steveF, I think I'll continue to enjoy the freedom & flexibility of a US Treasury saturated balance sheet and zero debt. Where this economy ultimately goes, is any ones guess. Indicators I track continue to suck regardless of how much lip stick I try to put on them. For the time being and I suspect for quite sometime, incurring debt will not not be an attractive option.

Besides, the recovery from this down cycle will in all probability be anemic at best given the wholesale destruction of wealth & a challenging demographic picture. There is no rush.

I think that with very meager returns on your capital and prospects of appreciation, these sideliners may stay there and not jump in any time soon... the price has nothing to do with it.. stop thinking in terms of bottom.. the next bottom is going to be tomorrow's floor.. rats don't fly

I was a sideline buyer, waiting for real estate in Manhattan to finally burst. Unfortunately, when it finally burst (more like a slow deflation), my net worth had already gone down about 40% with the stock market so now I'll be stuck a sideline buyer, or more likely, a buyer in the brooklyn or jersey. I know I'm not the only one in my position too.

RE market could rally or tank, I'm not making any guesses. Just giving some perspective on potential buyers. For every person that was willing to buy during the boom, there's probably another than lost a chunk of his down payment, got laid off, etc. Don't think the country is full of people just itching to buy in Manhattan. More like people in worse financial shape than before, with available finances decreasing faster than RE prices which have held up relatively well.

"RE market could rally or tank, I'm not making any guesses."

Let me guess for you.
What would make the RE market rally?
Cheap easy money to non-credit worthy buyers.
Huge increase in employment and wage earning.
Tremendous influx in population.
Monsters (Japanese movie size monsters) attack New York and destroy many many residential buildings.

Personally, I'm rooting for the Monsters