When will pricess fall (further)?

lose the broker...spend a lot of time on SE....look at a lot of places....make sure you are extremely clear about your finances....remain patient....don't allow others to pressure you.

nostreet,

In general, I would advise patience here - wait til you find the right place at the right price. There is a lot of inventory in these areas, so it's definitely in your best interest to really explore the options and determine the best fit. Be aggressive in your bidding, negotiate as much as you can in terms of closing costs, parking/outdoor space, etc., and never let on that you're in any kind of rush (even if you think you are). I know it's frustrating staying in a rental (esp with a roommate) when you know you can be in your own brand new place right now, but if you rush it, you may end up regretting being so rash. You'll find the right place. FWIW, both of these areas have a lot going for them.

Yes, I know I have to be patient. It's very frustrating when you know prices are overpriced and the developer/seller is still holding out, just in case.

Would I be extremely out of line making an offer 22% below current ask and requesting the developer pay for most of closing costs (all transfer taxes)?

As for the broker, I do plan on keeping him. He did lead me to the area and has put it work. I do not hold a grude against him, I understand times are tough for them right now. He does tell me about timing the market, but is also not a broker with his head buried in the sand. He understands prices need to adjust further, so I would say he is a realist. Besides, I'm not paying him, he will get his money from the seller so it doesn't hurt me at all to have added help. I think when it comes to negotiating, it helps to have an ally on my side and an advocate for me.

My big question is, if given trends and expert predictions that I have studied, I still feel the particular unit I am looking at is about 25% overpriced given current market conditions and future conditions...should I bid 25% below now or wait until July/August when reality may be setting in more for the sellers to realize that they're not at market value?

If you really really like the place, there's nothing wrong with bidding your price right now. Developers are probably getting a good amount of lowball bids now.

"Would I be extremely out of line making an offer 22% below current ask and requesting the developer pay for most of closing costs (all transfer taxes)?"

I don't think it's out of line, no. The worst they can do is say no and not bother to counter-offer (which would be a mistake, but so be it). On the flipside, they could also accept, which would be (I assume) great for you. I wouldn't worry too much about the broker - you seem to understand his place, and to what extent he's able to help you. Way too many people on this site are paranoid about brokers and don't want anything to do with them, but there is a happy medium.

"should I bid 25% below now or wait until July/August when reality may be setting in more for the sellers to realize that they're not at market value?"

Why not try now? At least you've put your name in the hat early, and if they're still trying to sell months from now, I wouldn't be surprised if you heard from them right away. My point is, it doesn't hurt to maintain open lines of communication, even if you have no intention of buying at these prices.

Thanks for the opinion and advice, crescent and bjw.

Yes, I understand it's probably realistic that they won't counter now, that they may say it's too soon to accept a low ball offer after a fairly substantial price drop.

But from watching various shows on HGTV about real estate, etc., I have seen that sellers and developers too, are insulted with lowball offers and take it personally. Often times, they refuse even to deal with people like that. My biggest fear is that they will permanently ignore me, even say when they initiate a price drop a few months from now that is in line with my thinking of value now. I want to get a good deal but still want to be taken seriously.

I guess I will try to put in a low ball offer now and hope that I am not placed on their "Pay No Mind List" in case it is rejected for future consideration.

The desparity between buyers and sellers right now is very obvious. Sellers feel that they can make price drops from numbers that were never the current market value and expect that to be taken seriously. If the price didn't sell at the peak of the market, then it never was an accurate price, right?

It might actually help to start with your lowball bid now- it sets up for you to raise it a little in the summer and place that thought in their minds, "ok, he's compromised some".

> The desparity between buyers and sellers right now is very obvious.

It's thawing. Asks are dropping aggressively in the last 6 weeks.

That's a very good strategy, crescent. Good tip.

I consider this property to be especially challenging b/c it's been for sale for over 1 year and this is the first price drop. Obviously, their original asking price was not the market price otherwise it would have sold when the market was solid. So the price drop of 20% they recently did may have only brought it down to 15% true market value...I know my articulation may be confusing.

"Often times, they refuse even to deal with people like that. My biggest fear is that they will permanently ignore me, even say when they initiate a price drop a few months from now that is in line with my thinking of value now. I want to get a good deal but still want to be taken seriously."

nostreet, I hear you, there can be a bit of a fine line. Still, that's just bad business on their part. What you've got going for is that there are a lot of new construction projects to choose from, so unless you're in love with one in particular, you can rest a little easier knowing there's other sponsors who may not react so poorly to a bid. This is business, and taking things personally isn't really in anyone's best interest. Good luck!

PS - any developments/parts of PS or WB that you're looking at in particular?

It helps A LOT to fall in love with a 2nd place - it helps your negotiating emotion (to prevent you from thinking you have to bid up to get your dream place); it helps create leverage against the other side as you can pound them with the "sell at my price or you will lose me directly to another place" line.

nostreet,

It's up to you on how you use your leverage. . .and you have it--the seller does not. If you really like the place, go with the 25 percent lower bid. You have absolutely nothing to lose; if it's been on the market for a year the odds are it will still be on the market when prices actually fall to your bid.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351578-condo-164-kent-avenue-williamsburg-brooklyn
Two Northside Piers
NV
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/239138-condo-101-n-5th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn
(No name condo)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/282-21-street-brooklyn

Nostreet:

Even if you wait 8-12 months to buy and the market has bottomed before that time I wouldn't be afraid to be left behind. This will be no V-shaped recovery. Everyone seems to agree prices have fallen 20-25%. Most brokerage firms are saying we have hit bottom while Goldman Sachs and others are predicting a 44-50% fall from the peak. Outerboroughs may fall further. Most likely there will be an overshoot to the downside and we will look back on that period as a great time to buy. We are not there yet. I am looking to buy as well in the W'burg/Greenpoint area but not yet. I just rented at the Viridian for one year. It is a former condo, gone bankrupt and now rental. We got an excellent deal.

If you want some historical perspective go back to 1987. The stock market crash that October had the ripple effect of a housing collapse here in NYC. I bought my first condo in August of 1987 and was underwater until 1992. There are big differences between now and 1987. The 1987 stock market crash was not as severe, housing was in no bubble, credit was still flowing and unemployment was low. 2009 compares very unfavorably to 1987. Does that mean recent buyers stay underwater longer than 5 years? I have no idea but I think we are heading down to 50%off peak highs.

Nostreet: Sorry to sound alarmist, but I think you are looking at buying into some of the riskiest real estate in the area -- new developments in Williamsburg. I am not generally in favor of buying in this market but I would be less concerned if you were linking to established buildings in Park Slope. Please go back and look through previous threads related to the market and buying in Williamsburg and buying in new developments.

Don't you want to buy in Kabul, too? I mean, just to add some safer assets to your mix.

Is the tax abatement solid? Is there any threat it will be reversed?

I think you should wait it out especially if you have really great credit and a solid job, you'll be able to buy at any time. Submit an offer of what you think the apartment is worth. There's no legal commitment in submitting an offer, and don't worry about getting on a developer's black list. When it comes right down to it, your money is going to look really good to a developer a few months down the line when their apartments haven't sold. I doubt they will hold a grudge against you. There's plenty of apartments to choose from, you're very lucky to be in today's market, although I understand the hassle of a having a broker on your back and spending every Sunday at open houses, oh and yeah the roommate.

GOOD LUCK!

Oh and your broker, and his speeches. Just ignore, or penalize him. I'd have a lighthearted, but serious talk with him to reassure him of your interest in continuing to work with him and what your needs are. Tell him you've heard the speech before, and he doesn't have to keep repeating himself. Tell him that you're going to fine him $5 every time he gives you the speech, payable immediately. Make money off of him. This offers the broker an incentive to make even more money because he will no longer have to pay you $5 every time he gives or begins to give the speech. Plus brings a lightness to the situation and shines light on this broker technique that is not going over so well with you, the buyer. The buyer who really, really wants to buy and is capable of closing the transaction. Brokers have to be flexible too, and hustle, and be on top of their game, but not at the cost of annoying the hell out of you or pressuring you.

I'm not kidding!

"As for the broker, I do plan on keeping him. He did lead me to the area and has put it work. I do not hold a grude against him, I understand times are tough for them right now. He does tell me about timing the market, but is also not a broker with his head buried in the sand. He understands prices need to adjust further, so I would say he is a realist. Besides, I'm not paying him, he will get his money from the seller so it doesn't hurt me at all to have added help. I think when it comes to negotiating, it helps to have an ally on my side and an advocate for me."

You're not paying him, right?

So, how and why is he on your side?

Unless you buy an apartment, he's not going to get paid, right?

So, does he want you to buy an apartment?

Don't kid yourself, his mere presence creates pressure on you. You think he's a good guy and he's put time in so you want to see him get paid. Right? You're going to feel bad if he doesn't get paid. Right?

How does having him around help you to be patient? It doesn't.

nostreet...I have a bridge to sell you, want it? It's in your best interest, I promise

jobs - jobs - jobs

as long as the urrent situation continues -600K per week no rush to buy.
Have you read about the Goldman employees which have to borrow money
just a sign of these times
More to come
De-leveraging has just started

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/business/17wall.html?_r=2&ref=business

If I were you, I would read the comments of columbiacountry & Trompiloco one more time before you make any decision.