Hey SteveF!! Inventory is now over 10,800 - and climbing!!!

but wait, this just means all those sideline buyers are bursting at the seams waiting to get in!

Actually, if you include "no address" listings it's over 11,000:

Sales in Manhattan
We found 11,076 listings
Median price: $1,129,000 Median size: 1,116 ft� Median price per ft�: $1,078

And since there will be no "spring busy season" this year as the financial world gets worse and worse, my prediction is for 15,000 listings by the end of the summer - the most ever.

If streeteasy comes up with a way to calculate the "shadow inventory" of unlisted new development, then the figure is higher still.

Rents, of course, continue to tank, meaning property prices will have to fall ever farther to keep up with them.

15,000 by end of summer is a bold prediction, but one that i find hard to argue against. it will take years to work off that type of inventory.

"it will take years to work off that type of inventory"

At these prices.

This market will have to move to an auction model at some point (probably fairly soon).

Yeah, the inventory number is hard to refute. I was thinking 11,000 by June. Now ... wow.

> SteveF - remember the good old days? When inventory was 5,000? Less than half what it is now?

Yes, when he first started saying "now is the time to buy"

During the Carter administration NYC was sporting a 4 year inventory.
Remember the head lines that proceded that?
Ford to New York...Drop Dead!
The question you have to ask yourself is, are we in better or worse shape then the 1970's?
I would argue that we are in better shape on the way to worse shape.
The city is not bankrupt...yet.
The crime is not out of control...yet.
There is not a wholesale flight from the city...yet.
Unemployment is not as bad...yet.
All those things are coming and more. Try running this city without downtown dollars. Try running this state without downtown dollars. Where's Elliot Spitzer when you need him? We legalize 'Cash for Gash' tax the crap out of it, covince to do his fanageling locally and, Wallah! No more fiscal worries!

i got urbandigsauctions.com all set up! Now I just need a few mil in venture funding. Any givers out there?

UD, you need to talk to some sideliners!

But I say, why even buy at auction? It's still cheaper to rent.

Lots.

with this type of inventory brokers should stop using the words "rarely available" when they describe apartments... i crack a smile everytime i read that in a listing and it happens often!

The only 'rarely available' is the buyer of these properties LOL

HA! I was just tempted to start a separate thread listing the "rarely available" units. As I was planning my open house schedule for tomorrow I noticed at least 10 listings in the same hood that were all basically the same generic 2 bedroom apartment yet they all used that phrase.

MANHATTAN REAL ESTATE DATA
1-day 7-day 30-day
New Listings 115 585 2,389
Price Cuts 20 35 168
Contracts Signed 15 107 504
Total Inventory 10,900 10,701 10,402

Question for you guys. I put together the simplest model yet. It tells me based on my required after tax un-levered cash return and an assumed rate of maintenance per square foot and an assumed rent, what I should be willing to pay for an apartment. So basically, I am buying the cash flows that represent the difference between maintenance and rent. What do you think my required after-tax return should be? At 6% after tax return and $1.50/sqft in maintenance, I look at my current rental in Carnegie Hill. I pay $5,500 for about 1250 sqft. If I assume 31% federal, 7% city and 4% state tax, a 6% after tax return is roughly a 10% pre-tax return. This may be right...but the price/rent multiple that equates too seems too high relative to the 1990s...It comes out to like 11x rent. That may be a function of interest rates being low relative to that time...and/or my rent likely being 10% or so too high for the immediate market (lease signed in August before Lehman).

15,000 by end of summer?

Sounds like an exaggeration, but so far this trend has been in a straight line for how long? The trend would have to change directions just to stay flat. If the trend continues in a straight line, I suspect it would take more than 6 months to reach the 15,000 point.

Key to the trend is how many condo developers are holding units off the market... Holding off units has been typical.

where is SteveF anyway?

the next shoe to drop, though, might be owners who decide to sell not because they need to, but out of fear of future market drops, i.e., panic

how can we know how many units condo developers are keeping from the market??

Somebody could do the analysis... but just as a one offs, just look at how many apartments in specific buildings are already sold.

Building Trades council noted that most EVER apartments added to Manhattan market was 2008... and 2009 will be a close second.