Top of Market Date

I think the Manhattan market peaked in early 2008.

And, generally speaking, I think the current market is approximately 30% off the highs.

Agree with YJBO.

I would actually say sometime around Q2-Q3 2007 for peak pricing. I believe volume started really dropping towards the end of that year.

Probably Q3 2007, maybe into early Q4. Just keep in mind the lag between contract and closing, especially for coops and new development. A lot of crazy-high deals closed in 2008 because of that delay.

If you want to know what a peak sale looked like in my neighborhood, here's a good one:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/96565-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

The same line two floors up can't draw interest in 2009, priced $1.7MM lower.

West81st,

Did you see the original ask on 333 CPW? $5.8m? Holy four-letter-word!

I may be mistaken, but I recall seeing quotes from Jonathan Miller pegging it in 1Q08. It depends on how you measure it. Average sales price peaked then at $1,722,991, however median sales price peaked in 2Q08 at $1,025,000. Of course the sales data reflects properties that went into contract 3- to 18-months prior, so peak trading could very well have been occuring in 2007.

Sometime in 2007, for sure. It was slowing in early 2008 in many segments.

Based upon Miller Samuel Manhattan coop/condo price-per-square foot data prices peaked at $1,322 in 2Q2008.

You can also run the numbers for any specific neighborhood as well.

http://www.millersamuel.com/data/

All in all, I'd conclude that Manhattan is very early on in the bear market while the rest of the country is much further along.

Thanks Topper. I got my data directly from Miller's quarterly reports, but it looks like he updated the 2Q08 ppsf figures for his data engine.

I would agree with late 2007/early 2008. It seems that trading peaked in late 2007, and a last few sellers were still able to get peak prices (meaning convince buyers to go into contract for peak prices) in early 2008 - but trading was starting to fall off. By mid- to late-2008, it seems that both demand and prices were really starting their downward trend. Like most others on this board, I agree that even with a 25-30% drop from peak today, Manhattan still has a ways to go down.