Will I ever be able to buy a 3 BR in the UWS ?

it will happen for sure over the next 2 years. the economy is going to the hell, inner city people are moving out, less high paying jobs. NYC will go back to the early 80s. UWS will not be exception. fair price is annual rent X 18. currently, you can rent a decent 3b at UWS at about $5000 range, which means the fair price is $1,080,000.

There are a large # of posters who say yes. A smaller # who say no. Why is Bk better? Rent/buy ratios out of whack there too? Why not just rent.

In Brooklyn I would get something for 1M quite easily, even in a prime neighborhood. Kevin: I heard about the rent/price ratio. Was it ever 18 in Manhattan?
NYC10023: I feel pressured b/o kids moving out in 15 years. If I wait another 5 years renting (which would be fine in terms of quality of life) it makes almost no sense anymore to buy a 3 BR.

Then you've just answered your question - maybe it never makes sense for you to buy a 3br.

NYC10023: Well, plan be is to buy a 3BR that was converted by merging 2 units. Then, once kids left, we could sell or rent the smaller unit of the two. Makes sense? Or am I paying so much more tax/fees b/o combined unit, that it makes more sense to buy a real 3BR and sell it 10 years later and buy a smaller unit?

sorry : Plan B

"I am ready to buy a condo in the 1 million dollar range.... I would be able to buy a nice condo if prices come down 40% in the next 2 years."

Take Ariel East as an example. A modest 3BR with nice views would have cost you a little over $2MM two years ago. By last fall, it was down about 20%, to $1.6-1.7MM. A further drop of 40% would put it in your range. Possible? Yes, but I wouldn't recommend planning your life around it.

My advice would be to save more of your $380K income over the next two-three years, so buying is less of a stretch for you financially. Then, if the market moves in your favor, you'll be well-positioned to take advantage. If it doesn't, you'll have a lot of cash, which isn't a bad thing either.

Make the brats share! ;) I'd consider buying a classic 5 or 6 in a less full service building. There are a few smaller prewars that are really pretty in the 90s b/w WEA and Riverside. Buzzer doors. You could get a good bit of space.

Need: I've combined apts to make a 3br. It's oftentimes cheaper than buying a 3br, even after reno costs. Just don't expect to have it sell for the same $ as a classic 7 or an original 3br apt. The issue is to make the 3br flow, you often have to do substantial reconfiguration, so splitting again may be too much work. I am not going to go into splitting the apt legally (coop vs. condo) but it's not easy.

IMO, I would combine if and only if you're not paying a premium to pay 2 adjoining units; the combined unit will fulfil your needs for a long time; don't go overboard on reno costs and expect that 1+1=3; and if the combined units + reno are MUCH cheaper than buying an equiv. 3br.

You are the very reason prices will come down. If families earning a stable 380K cannot afford a reasonable, not "luxury, spa-like" apt, in Manhattan, prices will have to come down. Prices vs incomes are unsustainable.

"My advice would be to save more of your $380K income over the next two-three years, so buying is less of a stretch for you financially."

You didn't mention what you do for a living.

Unless you're a doctor, I would be very cautious about assuming you'll still be making that kind of income over the lifetime of a mortgage, in this day and age.

It seems to me someone earning $380,000 can easily afford to rent a three bedroom apartment in NYC, so I am not as concerned for the affordability of Manhattan prices. apt23, must everyone of high income be able to afford to buy in Manhattan before prices stabilize? What is wrong with stabilizing where people with high net worth can afford to buy? You know, where people with high income save substantially for three, four, five or more years?

pmg, that works for a certain subset, particularly those who marry relatively early and delay having children. and that's what we've been seeing. people waiting longer to buy, saving, and often buying something short of their "forever" apartment because they are afraid prices will escalate further and price them out.

but it takes an awful lot of time for the majority of people to save the amount necessary for a three bedroom condo. and on $380k with two little kids, not so easy. yes you can save, but for a $1.5mm condo i'm assuming you'd likely need $450k down now, no? at least $300k. and then closing costs and reserves. that's a chunk of change to save, particularly if you have two kids.

AR: I disagree about the cost of two young kids. Need_a_home mentioned that they attend public school. That removes one big-ticket item, probably the biggest by far.

at this point buy now, but if you wait any longer you will be stuck as an empty nester with a 3br you dont want or need. why dont you focus on loft space that can easily take an additional bedroom without sacraficing too much living space. Then simply blow out the wall as the kids leave. Move to westchester. Get 5 bed with a pool for 1.2MM

west81st, if they're in school already. but even so you have the cost of after-school care, etc. and i was speaking more theoretically, two people with two kids and a $380k annual income trying to save $500k.

everyone's situation is different of course. i'm just pointing out that life is expensive, and so are down payments.

10 years in a 3 BR with two kids is too short a time frame? Why?

Seems as if a number of people on this board (including myself) bought, then "traded up", possibly even more than once.

Not a lot of people (okay, except for all those hedge fund/investment bankers/trustafarians) have historically been able to buy their "forever" apartment right out of the gate. Ten years with children (ages 8-18?) in a larger apartment would make "no sense"? Why not?

need_a_home: Not a combo- but a coop on West side - combo of 2 units to make a 3BR for around $1M.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/495504-coop-25-west-54th-street-midtown-new-york

5thGen - I doubt you have kids. The location is dreadful for a family apt, hence the price.

No kids- used to work in the location and seemed pretty nice - i know the building and its nice.

But might not be suitable for kids. Not sure about schools either there.

need_a_home has "barely enough cash for downpayment." coop not an option.

since doesn't have enough cash for down payment, doesn't have enough for a combo either.

25W54 is a great pied-a-terre location. It's zoned for PS111 which has a sig. population of homeless kids. Just saying.

I'm in a similar situation, with 2 kids and looking just beginning to look around, but not only in manhattan, park slope, maybe jersey and yes even SI, folks are there.

We have a boy and girl, and its been hard thus far to find a place big enough in our price range for the long term (thinking teenage years) in manhattan for the long run. Unless, of course we start looking in LES, Chinatown, Harlem, or Financial District.

I've heard that a lot of co-ops require not only about 25% down, but also 25% or so in liquid reserves, which basically means you need half a mill in cash for a million dollar apt. Is this right?

5thGen: The other reason is maintenance $2,879

It ain't easy a_g.

I prefer condo so I can rent it out for a year if I want to take a sabbatical, leave the city for a while, or travel the world on a boat. Also, if it is a combined unit, it will be easier to split it. As far as saving money: I think we can save 50k/year without stretching too much.
5-Gen-NY: this is virtually a no-go-zone for families, thx for the link, looks nice. BTW the maintenance in 2800!

need a home, wanna bid on two 3-bedroom units in a new development, maybe we'll get a major discount?

a_g : Which building? WE get a discount?

oh, got it: 2 x 3 = 5 !

I was just kidding, I got no clue, but we're in a similar boat as far what we're looking for. I did check out a decent 3-bedroom in UWS, last friday, problem was the place needed 50% financing, and it also needed to a minor renovation.....I'll send the link, location was nice though.

Has that ever been done: a cooperative of buyers, that buys in "bulk" ?

Need: not really.

I could see a possible deal with in a new development with lots of 3 bedroom, my guess is it would be easier in Williamsburg, than manhattan.....
Anyways....I checked out 8D, easily converted to a 3 bedroom if you don't need the dining area. But the interesting thing is that there looks to be another apt, with the same layout that just dropped its price by 50k, and now its 50k below the price of 8D. See below.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/123-west-74-street-new_york

We could buy the 2 condos at 200 W 78th Street. The sellers are semi-delusional and are testing the waters with 1.5 M. Walk-up, loud corner, perfect terrace, apt. too small, weird windows, duplex, cheap upstairs.

Might want to check out the options in Morningside or the south part of central harlem. That is basically an extension of the UWS at this point (and in the same PS District 3) and have a number of 3 BD options under $1MM. Probably priced around the same as the areas of Brooklyn you would be looking at, but you are in Manhattan and would be close to Central Park, Columbia, etc.

There have been bulk sales of co-ops in new failing conversions. But never heard of end-user buyers coming together to do this - problem is financing and being able to close the deal quickly.

need_a_home, i'll check out 200 w 78th online, but it doesn't sound like you seem too excited about the apt.
About 123 W. 74th, it's interesting what those 2 units will close at, decent layout and seems like a fair price given the location.

major problem is the 50% financing, would make it hard to resell too.

I just took a look at the two apts on the 5th floor at 200 w 78th. Looks like 5d sold for 1.31M back in '07. Does it make sense that's the asking is 255k more?

Re: 200 W 78th - One of them is nicely renovated, the other cheaply renovated. The nicer one is FSBO, the owner being his own broker at Halstead. It looks like the apartment is being flipped, just by talking to owner/agent. Absolutely perfect staging: clutter free, but not obvious that nobody lives there. Little children books left with the magazines and so on. My prediction: 1.2 M for the nicer one, 1.1 for the other.

How about this one ?:
$995,000
749 West End Avenue #4W

FSBO (which I like), weird layout, third bedroom only accessible through other bedrooms, otherwise no obvious hooks.

need-a-home . . . if that qualifies as a 3BR for your purposes, why not buy any decent-sized 2BR and carve an extra room out of the second bedroom?

How about this one?

$849K

1610 square feet

3 beds, 2 baths

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/471821-condo-412-kings-highway-bensonhurst-brooklyn

NYCMatt, I know that area, there's no way it would sell for that much unless it's being used to "store" money made overseas.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/472252-townhouse-96-father-capodano-blvd-staten-island

Beachfront house for $450K, close to the bridge - 3.5bedroom! I think there is a mosquito problem in that area and the kids would wind up stars on the Jersey Shore.

"currently, you can rent a decent 3b at UWS at about $5000 range"

Really? Where can you find a decent 3 bedroom in the UWS for $5000? 900 sqft 3 beds and apartments in Midtown West don't count

Juice, id like to know too. Where are all these $5000 3BR rentals on the UWS?
Not seeing them either lol. Minimum 8k for a real 3BR

There is an entire thread started by joedavis highlighting his many month quest to find a real 3 bed in the UWS for $1-1.2M. I said then "not a chance" and was ambushed by a bunch of idiots predicting 50% off real estate in Manhattan. Well, the end of the story is that joedavis bought in Harlem, we just experienced the worst recession in history, and we STILL don't have real 3 beds in the UWS for $1-1.2M (not even close). I think someone refreshed the thread recently based on a 750 sqft 3 bedroom in an attempt to prove me wrong. That was pretty funny.

bfgross, I agree.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/467992-coop-425-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

The original joedavis thread, now a streeteasy classic

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3732-where-is-my-3br2ba-for-1-to-1249-million-on-the-uws

stevejhx's lame ass attempt at proving nothing by posting a 750 sqft 3 bed for under $1M

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/17654-three-bedrooms-yours-for-under-1-million

AR, #5A two floors up sold for the same price in 2006.

JM, i was really responding to your comment that you couldn't come close to a three bedroom now for $1.2mm.

The listing for 5A has no discussion of any renovation. 4A sold for $1.25mm 06/05, and 2A sold for $1.25mm 04/05.

4A just went into contract last week with an ask of $1.45mm.

Granted, it looks reno'd. But unclear when.

Juicy? Your point being? How about if I told you that 2006 was a relative 'bargain'? That makes ar's unit in line with 2004-2005 prices and a largish 3bdrm for under $1.2mm.

Flmao. And u do understand that rates are rising, which will further drop NYC re stock. It's inevitable......

Congrats AR, you found one, this is obviously not not the norm. Need West81st to explain what is going on with this building.

"It's inevitable."

Yeah, yeah, yeah w67th. Just like it was inevitable it would happen in 2007, then in 2008, then in 2009, now it is interest rates! Why don't people accept that there are some sub markets, UWS 3 beds being one of them, that are stronger than others? That is not a bullish statement, it is just reality. You will never see average UWS 3 beds price points at $1-1.2M ever again. Sorry, it won't happen.

Something is wrong with AR's building, prices are artificially low compared with comps. That is also not a bullish statement, it is reality. So flmao w67th, do so research wilz ya?

This NYT article from January is decent and highlights the 3 BD options out there under $1 MM. Basic conclusion is that you may need to make a few compromises, but you can now get a pretty good 3 BD apartment for that price.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/realestate/10cov.html?pagewanted=1&sq=Eismann&st=cse&scp=4

The short answer here is "no".

Given his income restrictions and low down payment, he'd do better looking to buy a house in Brooklyn or Queens.

-melody, Mick Jagger.
'i've got time..... On my side, yes it is......'

melody - jim croce

"If I could save time in a bottle...
if words could make wishes come true"

Right now, when I do a search for 3BRs under $1.5mm on all UWS that are not in contract, I come up with 28. And these are all the places that *say* they're 3BRs. Who knows how many actually are what most humans would consider comfortable 3BRs.

Which means that even if asking prices fell another 30%, it would still be pretty slim pickings for the OP.

Fortunately, there are other terrific places to live with a family.

JuiceMan: The interesting thing about 425 WEA is how sellers in the building managed to miss the top the market. Basically, there was one strong sale of a unique, top-floor apartment with substantial outdoor space. That deal went to the heads of owners in #4A/B, who wasted precious months seeking outlandish prices while the market froze up. #6A came to market too late AND too high. It's hard to say what those apartments would have fetched in mid-2007; mid-high $1MMs, perhaps? At any rate, the opportunity was fleeting.

As for the current prices, I think they are in line with the going rate for a CNV3 in a non-doorman coop with no amenities. I do like the round LR in the "A" line. Unfortunately, it has no real view.

Love the battle of lyrics! Thanks for making me LOL.

To the OP. If you are willing to compromise a bit. Non-doorman, no view, etc., you may be able to find something on the UWS. Problem is, there are a TON of people with kids like you. Two incomes in NYC can push 400K with more frequency than most on here would admit. If you are not wedded to the UWS, you have a little more flexibility. I personally lament not buying in Brooklyn when we bought on the UWS. Would have gotten a lot more for my money, and probably would like it as much, although lose my proximity to my Manhattan friends. Work not a huge issue as I work downtown.

I think we've hashed this out before, but if you can swing the mtge on a multi-fam in Bk, good school zone, I'd go for that. You have control over mtce costs, taxes are low, and you can ratchet up and down your use of the space in the property.

need_a_home
1 day ago
ignore this person
report abuse I am ready to buy a condo in the 1 million dollar range, have 2 little kids. I would be able to buy a nice condo if prices come down 40% in the next 2 years. If that price drop does not happen, I do not know what to do. Is this a pipe dream? Should I just fuhgettaboutit and move to Brooklyn ASAP? Stable income around 380k, public schools, barely enough cash for downpayment.

I cant believe you would listen to these wannabe's. you will NOT be able to buy a three bedroom condo in prime UWS for less than a million dollars. anyone who thinks prices are going to drop another 40% has rocks in their heads.

How about 20% since, I see plenty at $1.2MM... Oh yeah that's right, last year it was less than $1.8MM, no fking way. FLMAO.

YOU are lozing it Jimmy.. keep track of all the logins and passwords okay?

If 11 = "plenty" of UWS purported 3BRs at $1.2mm or below (not counting a handful of HDFC units), you are absobloominglutely right, w67th.

people always see "plenty" of apartments that fit their criteria (mostly price) until its time for them to rent/buy one. then they realize "holy shit, i DO need someone who does this for a living to help me find a place that i'll actually want to live in"

and thats why website like streeteasy aren't really worth a damn, you have to get off your lazy ass and go see property

Last year, I saw a C6 listed at 950k on the UWS, WEA. Upper stretch (but below 96). Can't remember the address, W81 - can you help? So need-y is not necessarily dreaming.

you can eliminate a lot of places, just by looking at floorplans. Also, you can x out the ones with crazy maintenance. I think the web, especially streeteasy, allows to filter your choices well.
Other day I called a broker and asked him what's wrong with this place, why is it so low, a "3 bedroom" in the UWS, a block and half from the park. He said "nothing", I checked it out, it was a nice 1 bedroom that could be converted to a 3. Listings descriptions are questionable, but floorplans help.

a_g
6 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse you can eliminate a lot of places, just by looking at floorplans. Also, you can x out the ones with crazy maintenance. I think the web, especially streeteasy, allows to filter your choices well.
Other day I called a broker and asked him what's wrong with this place, why is it so low, a "3 bedroom" in the UWS, a block and half from the park. He said "nothing", I checked it out, it was a nice 1 bedroom that could be converted to a 3. Listings descriptions are questionable, but floorplans help.

75 comments

so, now to prove that the real estate market is in a total, unrecoverable tail spin we are going to show the op one bedrooms that he can chop up to make three bedrooms?

These deal were out there in mid 09, haven't seen much lately tho. This one, a second floor C6 at an Amsterdam bus stop with unobstructed project views.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385648-coop-175-w-93rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Wow. What a difference an elevation can make. A C6 in the same line and apparently in estate condition, but on the 14th floor, just sold for $1.45, 2% above ask.

jim_hones10
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse you see plenty of shitholes near the project you mean. do you ever go out and see the apartments, or just stare at your computer with your pants arond your ankles waiting for the world to end all day?

i'll just repeat myself, thanks. and note, in my orignal comment, i said "prime uws". if you are willing to expose your children to gunfire and drugdealing, im sure a mill goes along way. if not, as stated, you aren't getting anything liveable anytime soon with three bedrooms at that price point

Are you talking to me? I'm not even disagreeing with you. Now go away.

no miette you go away....FUCK OFF as our British cousins like to say.

i was responding to spinner anyway, not you

need_a_home
1 day ago
ignore this person
report abuse I am ready to buy a condo in the 1 million dollar range, have 2 little kids. I would be able to buy a nice condo if prices come down 40% in the next 2 years. If that price drop does not happen, I do not know what to do. Is this a pipe dream? Should I just fuhgettaboutit and move to Brooklyn ASAP? Stable income around 380k, public schools, barely enough cash for downpayment.

"i'd be able to buy a condo if the moon was made of green cheese. is there anyone here who will help me believe that to be true? please?"

need_a_home I am in the same boat as you. I have two kids and would like a three bedroom for the same price range. The problem is I need to sell my 2 bed first. I have enough for a good size downpayment so I am not worried about that. I guess my fear is that I won't find something reasonably priced. The prices need to come down... America have we not learned anything yet from the recent recession....

nyc10023: "listed at $950K" sounds like this one:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/447307-coop-317-west-93rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

But "C6... WEA" describes 522 WEA #6A, which sold for $950K:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368360-coop-522-west-end-ave-upper-west-side-new-york

It was a wreck, with maintenance a bit on the high side, but certainly one of the notable buys of 2009. I think that was the trade that elicited 30yrs's sage remark about estate wrecks looking like bargains only until the rest of the market catches up.

I guess the bottom line for people like me is to wait a year or two and then either buy in Brooklyn or proof that the moon is indeed made of green cheese.

need a home: i'm pretty sure if you look hard enough you can find an UWS 3 br rental (or at least a 2br + maids room) for much less than $8k. good luck.

West81st
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse nyc10023: "listed at $950K" sounds like this one:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/447307-coop-317-west-93rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york

But "C6... WEA" describes 522 WEA #6A, which sold for $950K:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368360-coop-522-west-end-ave-upper-west-side-new-york

It was a wreck, with maintenance a bit on the high side, but certainly one of the notable buys of 2009. I think that was the trade that elicited 30yrs's sage remark about estate wrecks looking like bargains only until the rest of the market catches up.

COOPS arent CONDOS

but don't worry once all of the "shadow inventory" hits the market (any day now!) you'll have your pick of property anywhere in the city at any price.
and if you stay on this board long enough, you won't want to buy if for fear of the the city going to shit

jim_hones10: I was answering nyc10023's question about a 2009 listing. No coop/condo confusion here, but thanks for your input.

spin, who's still rockin'?

No one can answer whether or not this will happen... But given how low rents are...why not sign a two year lease and give it that much time to find out.

There is certainly scope for this to happen... I think 'half off' - peak that is - will attract buyers. I also think people like you are going to be necessary to help the market find its cyclical bottom. I could see $1.1mm 3-beds reversing the rate of exodus that I expect to gain momentum over the next couple of years. Why do I think the exodus is only starting to take hold?...because it takes a couple of years for people to make major lifestyle decisions. Its anecdotal, and I've been made fun of for saying it...but many of my wife's friends who seemed to be die hard Manhattanites have left, or plan to leave...as with my friends as well...Because spending sensibilities have changed. They haven't changed like the Depression era generation...but the events have impacted people. Of course I am talking my book.

PS: Show me a decent 3 bedroom on the UWS for $5000. I see $6500+.

And original poster: the market is currently 18x rent for coops.... I can duplicate my $5000 rental for $1.1mm easily. In Manhattan it got as low at 8x in the 1990s...And its never been any higher than currently, as rents and values moved down in roughly the same proportion.

AR - it's me of course! I got my deal and I'm set. I'm immensely enjoying the fruits of ownership and customizing my environment. We are developing long term relationships in a community of like minded people. My peanut has her schooling set. My mortgage is low enough that we can handle it on one (guaranteed) income. Best of all, I'm out of the crystal ball game and can focus on living life within known parameters. As a responsible father and provider, that is my job and I have done it well.

So kiss my ass ; )

Out of the crystal ball game and focused full time on self congratulations. Didn't you get that out of your system with the thread you started with a treatise?

spin, i think we're pretty much in the same position. except many of the residents here tend to stay even longer. and i'm not tied to an illiquid asset. i'm no longer looking in the crystal ball for personal reasons.

but i was talking croce vs. jagger, as i'm sure you're aware.

so right back at you.

In a city of primarily renters, apparently its a huge quality of life compromise not to own. I think what is very interesting, is that when men buy...somehow they are doing their children a great service by having the flexibility to renovate their apartments to taste....And apparently by risking a down payment to lock in a monthly payment, they have managed to avoid unknowns...ironically, and especially today, exposing themselves to far greater unknowns. If you understand intrinsic value, you know what is reasonable and what is not. A crystal ball isn't actually required, only patience. Ask Buffett.

Rhino, as much as I despise anyone with a hint of conceit and self congratulatory tendency, it is important for people to understand there is life beyond the dour, expletive laden, postings of those who focus on the hole rather than the doughnut. You are far more vociferous than the voices of the thousands of people who saw opportunity and are now peacefully enjoying a life beyond SE and I make no apologies for taking a stand here and allowing myself to be a poster child for those you seem to despise (or envy.) I embraced the market correction, rather than get pissed off that it wasn't more, and I bought last year when the the bearish postings were at a fever pitch. The mob smelled blood and it was a clear sign for me to move in the opposite direction. And I found exactly what I wanted. Didn't over extend, didn't sweat my decision, was comfortable with discount to comps, all that crap we live and die for.

BTW, I asked Buffett and he said he said his head hurts, his feet stink and he don't love jesus. So I interpreted that as a strong buy. He's like a gawd to me.

"Rhino, as much as I despise anyone with a hint of conceit and self congratulatory tendency"

How could this be possible?

"it is important for people to understand there is life beyond the dour, expletive laden, postings of those who focus on the hole rather than the doughnut"

Right, by enjoying your shameless masturbations.

no

" I bought last year when the the bearish postings were at a fever pitch"

Again, when prices rise, you can take a bow. I am perplexed by how proud of yourself you are. You should be at one with your decision. I just don't get why you declare that it makes you a great Dad or a savvy contrarian. You talk as if youre Sam Zell, buying a rental building at 50% on the peak 2007 Macklowe dollar. Do you understand the difference? Apparently not.