Reuters: Jobless Claims Showing Unemployment Trending Down

please this board is only for posts of bad news that fit into the "logic" of market timers who think that Manhattan RE will drop over 50% and that the studio dwelling renters will eventually be able to buy a brownstone on CPW for $250K

No, apparently, its just for morons who crapped their pants because they lost their shirts makign HUGE RE mistakes buying at the top of the bubble... and think that rising stocks will somehow fix that!

I love it!

if losing my shirt means making millions and having dolts like NYC pay my mortgages for me, then please call me a moron.

I guess in NYC10022's eyes genius is being a day trading market timer who gives 50% of his take home pay each month to a landlord to live in a craptastic studio with roaches and cooking noodles on an electric stove..... then NYC you are a genius!

nyc10022..yes and I know it hurts you to hear this but your last bastion of hope for price declines -continued job losses- is reversing. People are now getting hired. I know you hate to hear that but it's true people are going back to work. oh and inventory is dropping as contracts are being signed.

steve - can you explain that math to me. If Initial claims are 584k, and continuing claims went from 6251 to 6197 for a net addition in employment of 54k; that means there was a net DECREASE in employment of 530k.

Am I missing something?

...also, if things are getting better, why is the insiders buy/ sell ratio so bearish? I know the economic numbers are less bad (still not good), but you'd have to concede that the insider buy/ sell ratio might be one of the best leading indicators for the market.

http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/charts/WEEKLY/INSIDER_SCORE.htm

The interpretation of this data is very straightforward. When insiders are selling much more stock than they're buying (i.e. the blue indicator line on the chart goes outside of the red trading band), then we can assume that insiders aren't feeling particularly optimistic and more often than not it precedes weakness in equities.

Noah had a very interesting take on why jobs data seems to always get revised upward. You have got to tread carefully with the numbers.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/07/same_old_problem_will_likely_d.html

relevant bit:
"ever notice how the BLS issues 'negative revisions' to nonfarm payroll unemployment statistics almost every month? How could this be? How could they tell us for 9 straight months, AUG 2008 - APRIL 2009, that the data is 'x' yet one month later announce that the previously reported data was really 'x minus y'. How do they get away with it? Well, if they announced the real bad data at first, the markets may not like that - as markets move based on analyst estimates! Its easier to report better data today, and revise it lower later on. The reason is because markets look AHEAD, not behind, and as a future discounting mechanism it is easier to accept negative data when it was revised lower for a date that has already came and went! "

evnyc - at this stage, I think the BLS doesnt have to overestimate anymore. Naturally, I think nonfarm payroll stats will get better. I think its safe to say the worst of the wave is beyond us with 9 straight months of downward negative revisions already behind us

urbandigs - if the worst is behind us, I would expect heads of corporations to know better than most. Assuming that's a true, why are they dumping their stock? See my earlier post.

Is it possible that this trend of things not getting worse could revert? Might the insider selling and upcoming wave of ARM resets indicate that it's more likely than not?

"if losing my shirt means making millions"

Perfitz, we already know you don't know what "making" means. I'm sorry you made bad investments, but we told you so!

"I guess in NYC10022's eyes genius is being a day trading market timer who gives 50% of his take home pay each month to a landlord to live in a craptastic studio with roaches and cooking noodles on an electric stove..... then NYC you are a genius!"

I'm not sure that guy would be a genius... but he's certainly 100X smarter than you!

"nyc10022..yes and I know it hurts you to hear this but your last bastion of hope for price declines -continued job losses- is reversing."

In NYC? Really? Funny, the stats say you're wrong! (wouldn't be the first time)

> oh and inventory is dropping as contracts are being signed.

And prices are still declining! Q3 preliminary numbers are already shown to be lower than Q2. Who needs "hope"? Aready got 30% discounts, and the numbers are STILL GOING DOWN! WOO-HOO!
(all while my stocks go up)

SteveF, you're not quite as dumb as perfitz, so I'm not sure how you're missing this...

But this is AWESOME for me. My stocks are going up, and Manhattan rents and prices are still going down!

"if the worst is behind us, I would expect heads of corporations to know better than most. Assuming that's a true, why are they dumping their stock?"

They were heavy buyers in December 08. If you haven't noticed, some of these stocks are up over 100-500%.
For example, a giant like BAC is up over 400% from the lows. It's always prudent to take some cash off the table after a big run up.

johngalt1945 - well I meant the worst NFP data is likely behind us, a model, and a very flawed one at that given birth/death assumptions. even as bad as revisions were to jobs data, stocks soared. stocks are not rational and the fed has engineered a bank recapitlization environment with heavy stimulus and stocks have soared from lows. as ericho says, dumping stock now or issuing stock to raise capital, seems like a prudent move given where we came from.

yes it could revert BUT here is the thing, REVERT FROM WHERE? I think the process of slower deterioration is here for a while and lets say this market gets used to -250,000 for a while at some point. Then, when the assumption is for -100,000, we can revert to -350,000 and shock the markets; depending where we are. So lets see, a healthy US economy should add 150,000 jobs every month, we are still losing jobs but not as bad and data likely will improve from here sending optimism higher. But is it great that we are still deteriorating and losing jobs? No, but its not as bad as losing 600,000 jobs a month. All this you know. So, if you ask me, do I see a reversion to months of losing 650,000 and 700,000 jobs, probably not. But certainly we can have a few shocks left in the system and this jobs market will remain weak for a while. Talk about confusing times.

Agreed..... I've shaved off some of the profits off the SSOs bought in the 6s, 7s, and 8s.

Granted, thats partially because I recognize that there could easily be another dip. Historically, its more likely than not, the latest calculation I saw said that big runups off of severe recession bottoms average a 14% haircut (about half the gain). There is a significant pull back more times than now.

If I thought things were hunky Dori, I'd keep it all in (still buying well off highs). But it does say something that the folks who called it right by buying are taking stuff off the table (and being replaced by the buyers who were the ones who sold at the bottom).

http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/17/layoff-tracker-unemployement-lead-cx_kk_1118tracker.html

UD, evnyc

Forbes does this layoff tracker of the top 500 or so companies. I am sure it is fairly accurate. What I am concerned about is that the small business environment is brutal right now. All the money is flowing to the large companies who probably cut their overhead proportionate to the downturn and are right-sized for now. But it is the small businesses across America that seem to be the real spilloff effect on this summer. If next week's numbers are bad, which I think they will be as expectations have gotten ahead of themselves, I think we will have another "jobs related reality check" in the equity markets. I think this would be our 5th or 6th one since the market has rallied off lows in Nov and March. Thoughts on my theory and how to play it?

I think you're right. I've heard about more small company decimations than big company problems in NYC. Crain's covers a lot of it. I think that non-public companies are having some major problems.

I have actually heard some small companies complaining about losing credit lines due to CIT. Not sure if they were getting ahead of themselves.

Steve - do u actually understand what "the number of people collecting unemployment insurance" means? Could it MAYBE be that people have exhausted their unemployment insurance? So the decline in continuing claims is actually a bad thing in light of the new claims?

In the end, its pretty simple... you're talking about 2 folks who were wrong and simply won't admit it.

Perfitz claimed Manhattan would go up 15%, and its down 20-30% since he said it.
SteveF claimed there would a stampede and prices would go up in Manhattan, right before it went down 20-30%.

They'll post and post and post about unemployment numbers and the stock market doing great and how perfitz has a magic house in las vegas that flies to New York, but its still really simple.

They were WRONG. PAINFULLY wrong. (and, since prices are still declining in Manhattan, getting even more wrong).

Guys, just admit it already.

unless stocks push over 10,000 and stay there for a while supported by sustainably better data - which actually is quite possible over the next 3-4 quarters, Manhattan simply will muddle around the comfort zone reached with this first wave down. Anyone expecting prices to start going back to 20% appreciation a year, because stocks are up, will be disappointed if they actually try to sell and get those types of gains.

i claimed 15% YOY gains by this fall. NYC either you need someone to explain that to you or you are lying about what I said. Or you are both dumb and a liar. I believe that latter.

UD - this year only 8% of the stimulous has been spent and we are seeing stabilization. Next year 4x's that amount will be spent in stimulous. Do you think that amount will have little effect on the economy and housing???

Also by saying 15% YOY by this fall does not mean I think 20% increases every year are returning. I am looking at a 15% YOY increase from last years lows. More of an adjusting then a sustained increased. Similar to what we are seeing in the stock market this year.

"There are signs the decline in unemployment is over," says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura International, reflecting the general view of half a dozen economists. "Sometime between now and the end of the year, we'll see the first positive increase in payrolls."

Proponents of the a job boom say the current recession — deep, long and nasty — closely resembles those of the 1970s and 1980s, whose recoveries pumped out jobs quickly and amply. For instance, payroll losses bottomed out one month after the recession of 1982 ended in November and were 3 million higher a year later.

> i claimed 15% YOY gains by this fall.

Well, you didn't actually, and we've pasted your quotes... but even pretend you did... it just means you only need a 65% increase in the next few months to be right!!!

Once again, you look like the moron you are.

> I am looking at a 15% YOY increase from last years lows.

Now THAT is a lie.

You said it before we declined! You are the moron who said 15% up right before we went 25-30% down!

Now you want to claim you said 15% off a decrease that you denied would ever happen?!?!

You are a liar and a moron!

""There are signs the decline in unemployment is over,""

SteveF, you get that that is a bad thing, right?

A decline in unemployment is generally good, and end to that means, well, MORE unemmployment?

No wonder you are so confused.

Regulator: GSEs Unlikely to Fully Repay Bailout

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/regulator-gses-unlikely-to-fully-repay.html

ehh who cares right? We got the bailout/rescue we needed and stocks are flying! Who cares if backstop isnt repaid! MORE FOR BANKERS AND FOR REAL ESTATE!

"Anyone expecting prices to start going back to 20% appreciation a year, because stocks are up, will be disappointed if they actually try to sell and get those types of gains."

Agree digs, but I think we are done with the drastic corrections as well. You have said before that the market will probably bop around current price levels for the foreseeable future and I think that’s a good way to look at it. For those looking to buy, there is no rush. However, I think Manhattan real estate is all about quality of inventory meaning, good stuff doesn't come around that often. If I was in the market and found something of quality, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. That said, I think people can now spend the time to find what they like without fear that the market is running away from them.

I am so in the wrong industry. Anyone think the banking industry needs another analyst?

my exact words "10-15% increace YOY by late fall" NYC10022 do you need someone to explain that to you? do you now what YOY in late fall means? do you know what YOY means?

"my exact words "10-15% increace YOY by late fall" NYC10022 do you need someone to explain that to you? do you now what YOY in late fall means?"

Except you left out that whole part where it was said before LAST fall.

whoooooooooooops.

Moron.

> Agree digs, but I think we are done with the drastic corrections as well.

I love it!

How come its always the folks who said there would be no correction who now suddenly "know" its the end of it?

"I love it!
How come its always the folks who said there would be no correction who now suddenly "know" its the end of it?"

Really? You're going to bag on someone for expressing an opinion? Pretty hard to argue with anything in JuiceMan's post. What's your beef? Or did someone die and appoint you Chief of all Correction Statements?

Wait, did you just write a post complaining about complaints in a post?
OMG, hypocrisy much?

> You're going to bag on someone for expressing an opinion?
Yes, because you're certainly not allowed to do THAT on a message board?

> Pretty hard to argue with anything in JuiceMan's post.

Except for the, uh, part I pointed at....

bjw, can you just give me a list of what I'm allowed to post about? That will be much easier. I know you have other hallways to roam.

I didn't see the merit in attacking the post. JuiceMan expressed an opinion, and a more than reasonable one at that, and you throw yet another strawman ("said there would be no correction") out there to bash anything he says? Instead of doing that, maybe you could shed a little light as to why you think more drastic corrections are due. Otherwise, just comes off as spite.

I don't care if you see merit, merry, or madonna in my posts.

Get over yourself.

Your self-righteous (and hypocritical) posturing is nothing but a joke.

> and you throw yet another strawman ("said there would be no correction")

Juice's predictions are well established, and have been posted and reposted.

Seriously, get a life.

nyc10022..would you please take your toxic soul and just leave already. You are a name calling freakazoid that offers nothing worthwhile but hate.

700 companies received TARP money - this thing is much deeper and broader than people will admit.
Plus, commercial lenders/hedge funds/mezz funds etc will get crushed once their loans expire and they are forced to face reality. We go lower from here, this is just a head fake up.

JM's post was perfectly reasonable. As stated above nothing to "attack" at all.

"nyc10022..would you please take your toxic soul and just leave already. You are a name calling freakazoid that offers nothing worthwhile but hate."

Yes, better I should tell people "BUY NOW" right before the market crashes. Or give them bad information.
That would be so worthwhile!

Do you realize that if anyone took you seriously, you could have hurt someone?

And you talk about what is "worthwhile".

oh my lord!

nyc, chill out - you jump down people's throats without a flinch, and though sometimes you back it up with reasonable arguments, you didn't exactly do that here. Excuse me for wanting to understand why, but if you think that's too much to ask, you're really just adding nothing here beyond petty attacks. Self-righteous? No. I just suspect you think your sh!t doesn't stink.

SteveF, I'm still waiting for you to admit you were wrong. We have you on record.

When are you gonna finally admit it?

admit what freak?

> nyc, chill out

dude, I've been saying the same to you for a week.
go get laid or something.

> though sometimes you back it up with reasonable arguments, you didn't exactly do that here.

Its not my claim to back up, its Juiceman's.... and he didn't back it up.

> Excuse me for wanting to understand why

I don't care if you want to know why, you can play hall monitor, but I don't really care.

> Self-righteous? No.

Yes.

btw, anyone notice that the headline notes "higher than forecast"?

"dude, I've been saying the same to you for a week."

Maybe you were projecting (nah, impossible)? You don't exactly come off as relaxed when you type in all caps so frequently, not to mention have to respond to every last one of alpine, petrfitz, or steveF's posts.

"Its not my claim to back up, its Juiceman's.... and he didn't back it up."

Actually he did, then you attacked it with nothing behind that. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, just that it would be nice to get a little substance beyond the bashing.

"I don't care if you want to know why"

So, why are you on a message board again?

My opinion is that we are going to be stagnant for a while. I happened to read Urbandigs' blog and saw that he mentioned something similar so I mentioned it. It is really pretty simple and I don't need data to back up an opinion. I especially don't need anything to prove to nyc10022 who has yet to post defensible data of any sort on this board, ever. At least he has stopped repurposing the daily news, exaggerating numbers, and claiming the world was going to end.

What is your problem nyc10022? What's got you in a huff?

realtors are saying they're swamped with showings, contracts, closings...is it bs or are things going back up (even though they weren't down very much)?

Julia - real estate brokerage companies are going out of business left and right. If realtors were really as busy as they say then why would all of these agencies be closing shop. Sure they are busier than before, but it's a very low bar to improve upon. Wait until the fall, prices will be lower going into next spring; it's a certainty.

(as an aside -The best brokers will always do well and arguably the best brokers should do better in a down market as it's their rolodex that is really needed in these times -in good times if I needed to sell I'd go FSBO, but in times like these I'd go to the best broker willing to take my listing and I'd gladly pay him/her a full commission).