ok, so the nationla Case Shiller Index has had 5 consecutive months of price INCREASES and homes sales are up. Yet, the bloggers say that the bottom is not even close. I'm sorry, but sicne when are BLOGGERS housing experts? What happened, was Shiller unavailable? Just a few weeks ago Robert Shiller of Yale University (which is an ivy league university, NOT a blog, FYI) said that home prices are... [more]
ok, so the nationla Case Shiller Index has had 5 consecutive months of price INCREASES and homes sales are up. Yet, the bloggers say that the bottom is not even close. I'm sorry, but sicne when are BLOGGERS housing experts? What happened, was Shiller unavailable? Just a few weeks ago Robert Shiller of Yale University (which is an ivy league university, NOT a blog, FYI) said that home prices are leveling off and he even sees the possibility of significant price INCREASES despite high unemployment. But, as usual, the know it all bloggers continue to preach doom, which I am not surpirsed since he more doom they preach, the more hits they get on their site, and the more hits they get, the more $$$ they get too.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/25/home-prices-not-even-clos_n_370830.html[less]
Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9881
Member since: Mar 2009
It just shows that any idiot can post stuff on the internet. People no longer have as much ... I don't know if "branding" is the right word, but it's a credibility issue. Most people don't even know that Wikipedia is just a set of articles submitted by outside people and may or may not contain accurate info. Look at the various "virus myth" websites. The internet has become the unfortunate EQUALIZER: I say 2 plus 2 equals 4, some idiot says two plus two equal sixteen and in the end it just ends up with "well, we'll just have to agree to disagree".
However, being a professor at an Ivy league University doesn't not make one immune from being wrong (or even being an idiot in some cases)
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by w67thstreet
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
que?
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Sunday
about 16 years ago
Posts: 1607
Member since: Sep 2009
"Double dip" You either agree or disagree. Only time will tell who's right.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Post87deflation
about 16 years ago
Posts: 314
Member since: Jul 2009
No one is arguing with Case Shiller, in so far as it goes.
After the 1987 crash, there were several up-ticks along the way down. Bottom in NYC Real Estate was not hit until until 1995. The highs of 2008 were even more extreme than the highs of 1987, and I don't think the economy was proportionally better. It's perfectly reasonable (and not ignorant or stupid) to think the current crash will follow a similar pattern, with several upticks along the way down to a bottom several years from now at prices much lower than anything we have seen yet. You may disagree, but you don't have to dismiss those you disagree with as "any idiot posting stuff on the internet".
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by Post87deflation
about 16 years ago
Posts: 314
Member since: Jul 2009
Also, keep in mind that this board focuses on NYC. The Case-Shiller index referred to is national. National prices started declining much sooner, and have declined much more substantially, than NYC to date, so it's entirely possible that the national market has hit bottom but NYC has not yet.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by evnyc
about 16 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
"I'm sorry, but sicne [sic] when are BLOGGERS housing experts?"
uh...since the "real" " experts" were claiming that real estate was based on solid fundamentals while the bloggers were screaming that there was a bubble - and the bloggers wound up being correct?
"But, as usual, the know it all bloggers continue to preach doom, which I am not surpirsed since he more doom they preach, the more hits they get on their site, and the more hits they get, the more $$$ they get too."
Very few bloggers make more than enough money to cover their web fees. They may be wrong, they may be doing it for fame and glory, they may be hoping for pennies to accumulate into millions someday, but the significant majority are doing it for love, not money.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by apt23
about 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
When Schiller predicted the looming housing crisis in 2006, NYC RE was going up. When the crisis came to pass in many cities across the nation in 06-08, NYC RE was still going up. It would be extraordinary if NYC RE only went down between October 08 and May 09 and then rebounded permanently. It would defy the trend line of every RE bubble city in America and every bubble economy in history. If commercial developers can not service their debt and default on a significant amount of new construction, then prices are heading down from here in double digits ( if comparisons with other cities where commercial developers bailed on projects are viable). If foreign investors prop up the market, prices might stabilize. But no one knows. There is huge risk in the market. Time will tell. Post87 is correct about the patterns. Miami and Las Vegas hit their highs in late 2006 and it took three years to hit 50% down in both markets. If that pattern held here, we wouldn't hit 50% down until 2011. Perhaps unlikely since NYC is a very different market. But to think this is the end of a downward trend --after only a year-- goes against all historical norms.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by aboutready
about 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
shiller's straddling the fence right now, even about the national situation. might go up, might go down, etc. the "economists" are all over the place on the issue. many believe that the early bubble areas that were allowed to experience high levels of foreclosure have bottomed or come close to doing so. but even in those areas there has recently been a false reduction in the REO market, manipulating supply.
time will tell. in the meantime i wouldn't want to be part of the experiment. alpie already is and can't help but wish for increased prices in ... new jersey.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9881
Member since: Mar 2009
"Very few bloggers make more than enough money to cover their web fees. They may be wrong, they may be doing it for fame and glory, they may be hoping for pennies to accumulate into millions someday, but the significant majority are doing it for love, not money."
Not totally true: there are MANY bloggers that are in it for the money, just not in Real Estate. In "adult", consumer electronics, and just about any area where there are websites which have "affiliate programs", bloggers link to sites which pay them commissions on any sales generated. One of the reasons for this is that for some reason which I could never figure out, Google's algorithm seems to WAAYYYY over-weight blog entries in terms of SE ranking.
It just shows that any idiot can post stuff on the internet. People no longer have as much ... I don't know if "branding" is the right word, but it's a credibility issue. Most people don't even know that Wikipedia is just a set of articles submitted by outside people and may or may not contain accurate info. Look at the various "virus myth" websites. The internet has become the unfortunate EQUALIZER: I say 2 plus 2 equals 4, some idiot says two plus two equal sixteen and in the end it just ends up with "well, we'll just have to agree to disagree".
However, being a professor at an Ivy league University doesn't not make one immune from being wrong (or even being an idiot in some cases)
que?
"Double dip" You either agree or disagree. Only time will tell who's right.
No one is arguing with Case Shiller, in so far as it goes.
After the 1987 crash, there were several up-ticks along the way down. Bottom in NYC Real Estate was not hit until until 1995. The highs of 2008 were even more extreme than the highs of 1987, and I don't think the economy was proportionally better. It's perfectly reasonable (and not ignorant or stupid) to think the current crash will follow a similar pattern, with several upticks along the way down to a bottom several years from now at prices much lower than anything we have seen yet. You may disagree, but you don't have to dismiss those you disagree with as "any idiot posting stuff on the internet".
Also, keep in mind that this board focuses on NYC. The Case-Shiller index referred to is national. National prices started declining much sooner, and have declined much more substantially, than NYC to date, so it's entirely possible that the national market has hit bottom but NYC has not yet.
"I'm sorry, but sicne [sic] when are BLOGGERS housing experts?"
uh...since the "real" " experts" were claiming that real estate was based on solid fundamentals while the bloggers were screaming that there was a bubble - and the bloggers wound up being correct?
"But, as usual, the know it all bloggers continue to preach doom, which I am not surpirsed since he more doom they preach, the more hits they get on their site, and the more hits they get, the more $$$ they get too."
Very few bloggers make more than enough money to cover their web fees. They may be wrong, they may be doing it for fame and glory, they may be hoping for pennies to accumulate into millions someday, but the significant majority are doing it for love, not money.
When Schiller predicted the looming housing crisis in 2006, NYC RE was going up. When the crisis came to pass in many cities across the nation in 06-08, NYC RE was still going up. It would be extraordinary if NYC RE only went down between October 08 and May 09 and then rebounded permanently. It would defy the trend line of every RE bubble city in America and every bubble economy in history. If commercial developers can not service their debt and default on a significant amount of new construction, then prices are heading down from here in double digits ( if comparisons with other cities where commercial developers bailed on projects are viable). If foreign investors prop up the market, prices might stabilize. But no one knows. There is huge risk in the market. Time will tell. Post87 is correct about the patterns. Miami and Las Vegas hit their highs in late 2006 and it took three years to hit 50% down in both markets. If that pattern held here, we wouldn't hit 50% down until 2011. Perhaps unlikely since NYC is a very different market. But to think this is the end of a downward trend --after only a year-- goes against all historical norms.
shiller's straddling the fence right now, even about the national situation. might go up, might go down, etc. the "economists" are all over the place on the issue. many believe that the early bubble areas that were allowed to experience high levels of foreclosure have bottomed or come close to doing so. but even in those areas there has recently been a false reduction in the REO market, manipulating supply.
time will tell. in the meantime i wouldn't want to be part of the experiment. alpie already is and can't help but wish for increased prices in ... new jersey.
"Very few bloggers make more than enough money to cover their web fees. They may be wrong, they may be doing it for fame and glory, they may be hoping for pennies to accumulate into millions someday, but the significant majority are doing it for love, not money."
Not totally true: there are MANY bloggers that are in it for the money, just not in Real Estate. In "adult", consumer electronics, and just about any area where there are websites which have "affiliate programs", bloggers link to sites which pay them commissions on any sales generated. One of the reasons for this is that for some reason which I could never figure out, Google's algorithm seems to WAAYYYY over-weight blog entries in terms of SE ranking.
____________________
David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty