WSJ rental market is back to "normal"

oh bigapple, don't you realize that the WSJ is just a shill for the real estate brokerage industry? (unless they post bad news, in which case they are top notch investigative journalists). And how is it possible that NYC has such a low vacancy rate compared to the rest of the country? Please don't try and tell me that 'New York is different'

"And how is it possible that NYC has such a low vacancy rate compared to the rest of the country? Please don't try and tell me that 'New York is different'"

Its not NYC, its MANHATTAN. And its because city-wide we have so many rent controlled, HUD, and co-op bldgs. Basic. Duh. All big cities have lower vacancies, the denser ones (LA, Boston) more so. NYC has all this plus what I said above, and Manhattan has it in spades. The city-wide vacancy rate is higher than average, but not as high as JUST Manhattan.

don't forget crains, and bloomberg....

Hey printer have you actually gone out and looked for an apartment in the last month? Have you tried to go around and see property in desirable neighborhoods where the landlord is paying the broker fee , tried to negotiate the rent. The WSJ is actualy behind the curve on this one. There is a chronic shortage of rental housing in prime neighborhoods as of today-and most people looking to move are not to interested in the fact that it might be easier to get an apartment in December.In addition, NY is one of the few places in the country that is actually hiring.

bigapple you really are hot stuff. 2 months ago you said the same thing and back then it was "I have been saying for months."
All these "months" add up to a year that you've been WRONG.

Further, when I look at listings that your page at your brokerage highlights for buildings,all the units in for example....
212 East 25th come as NO fee rentals!! Who's paying the fee? Keyser Soze?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/212-east-25-street-manhattan

same at 200 east 33rd...these are the first 2 buildings in your list.

I know I know, just an oversight and you forgot to update.

I looked around for apartments in the UES and UWS recently (with a friend who was looking) and there were still free months and vacancies in white glove doorman buildings. Don't believe the borker hype. Don't believe an umbrella salesman when he tells you it's gonna rain.

i agree...there are still deals to be made...someone i know just rented a 3 bedroom, 2 bath that was listed for $5200 and they signed for $4400.

NYCROBOT
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse I looked around for apartments in the UES and UWS recently (with a friend who was looking) and there were still free months and vacancies in white glove doorman buildings. Don't believe the borker hype. Don't believe an umbrella salesman when he tells you it's gonna rain.

you said it. ues, uws...see what happens south of 24th street and above canal

If this be "normal", I'd hate to see what a bad market looks like.

From Citi-Habitat's May report (latest month) going back 3 years (all they have):

Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR
2008: 1937 2611 3953 5212
2009: 1765 2426 3444 4657
2010: 1813 2453 3414 4496

Wake me up when something happens....

a bad market would be 2008-09 when rents were down across the board. "normal" is '09-10 when the are up slightly. i don't see the confusion.

printer: If you look at the chart, it's actually a mixed bag for 2009-2010. Up slightly for studios and 1-bedrooms, down slightly for 2 and 3 bedrooms.

studio's and 1-beds comprise a much larger %age of the units rented, therefore they are more reflective of the market.

Wow, impressive how you dismissed off-hand information counter to your position on the rental market. Notice I'm not a bear. The charts point to prices being "flat" yoy, but if you look at lack of incentives this year, they're up yoy. Not exactly a bearish point of view.

> I have been saying this for months

And you've been wrong for months!

http://ny.curbed.com/uploads/2010_7_9_3cw.jpg

> I know there are many SE posters who just can't stand the fact that some
> people choose to use brokers to help them find an aparmtent. Some people
> choose to use the convenience of saving time by having a qualified
> professional do the foot work, and paying for it.

Hey, I'm all for letting the grunt do the grunt work.

Its broker shills who actually claim to have insight into the market as they lead people wrong that get the complaints. Like, well... you.

And, lets discuss the term "qualified", shall we. You have a pulse (maybe). What else you got?

Turns out the brokers were the least knowledgable group over the last few years.

btw, also noticed that Grammercy, Flatiron, and Chelsea all average above $3k for a one bedroom.

steve's times square abode? $2515.

And he wonders why his apartment was less than everybody else's... its because its undesirable. His rent is right at theaverage for the neighborhood.

Ummmm, they said the percentage of bldgs offering deals was down from like 50% to like 25%. They did not say there were NO concessions! I love how people argue strawmen from hyperbole!

Somewhereelse, how about when I know about upcoming vacancies 1 or 2 wks before anyone because I'm the listing agent for a landlord with apartments in the village? You could wait till they hit the market, but by then you're getting leftovers. You like leftovers? Then do it yourself.

So what I have, way before John Q, is informtation. And you'll have to pay me to be privy to it.

Tell us a few more times. The more you repeat it, the more credible you are.

Don't need you to believe it, don't care if you don't.

Just need to say it over and over?

Can you shorten to "I'm right, everyone else is a cock sucker?"

The kid who works for me finally found that elusive studio in the UWS (60s) in a doorman bldg for $1800...using just the interwebs, which I helped him with.

No fee, BTW...

60's and.....the amsterdam projects right? Tell the truth

I'm right and you're a ....

Just waiting for Jason to give cross streets on this rental score. Sounds too good to be true, so undoubtedly it is. Fuckface

> So what I have, way before John Q, is informtation. And you'll have to pay me to be privy to it.

Paying for bad information and horrible analysis.

No thanks.

29 west 65th. A condo by owner, who bought for $90k in 1992 (I looked it up.) So renting for $1800 is way less than maintenance. And if you look through the rental history, plenty have rented for under $2k.

Its not full service, but its much larger than the tiny full service sub $2k studios he saw.

Jason, what do you mean by "renting for $1800 is way leas than maintenance".  Kudos for helping the guy out.

Don't mind jimmy bones.  He gets ornery every time a "civilian" is able to find better places than he is able to as a "professional".  Especially if it's in a superior location to where he lives and the industry hasn't been given a shot at them.

FTR, I recently gave some advice to a couple of people looking at the lower range of rentals.  In the high end, prices look pretty good still, but I was a bit worried for them given the recent summer push with new hires at the low end.  Both ended up with better things than I had expected.

Julia, would you tell us where this 3,2 for $4400 is? was it through a broker? is it a rental property or a coop/condo? TIA.

Nada, you've got the wrong guy. I live in a 2/2 pre-war doorman rental with a working fireplace in the east (very) 50's. And I can offer apts across all pricepoints. It is true that a condo or coop owner going direct can usually offer a lower priced equivelant apt.

Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Economic Recovery - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/11rebound.html?hp
And these newly hired / rehired individuals will be living where?

hiring? higher asking rents? nonsense. this is supposed to be a RECESSION! next you'll tell me that the vacancy rate is really really low...

Hold on Hones, you think East 50s (even far east, as in Sutton Place,m) is "superior" or "equivalent" to UWS on a park block?

Absolutely. But I'm a practical person. I like how easy it is to get around and generally think of both the ues and uws as hinterlands with poor access to anywhere else in our city. Plus the restaurants suck. I'm less than 10 minutes walking to central park. I realize its subjective but I feel it's the best neighborhood in the city.
.

To each his own, don't get me wrong, but I don't think the market considers it "superior" or "equivalent". Funny thing: last year my wife and I seriously considered something in Sutton Place -- a real kick-ass place. My wife's big complaints about it were a) it's kinda dead restaurant-wise b) poor access to rest of city, and c) the "older people" vibe. I sorta had to explain to her it was considered a good neighborhood. We ended up not taking the place because our existing LL lowered the price by a pretty large amount, but even that wouldn't have kept us from the place if it were a different neighborhood. But as you say, it's subjective.

How do you figure it's good for getting around and for restaurants? What are some good places there?

Cross town subway at 3rd/53rd, plus the local 6. The 59th st stop with the broadway line and all greenline stops. That's pretty good subway access, plus all the cross town bus routes. I feel trapped I'm the neighborhood on the uws or ues. There are tons of places in the area (rosa mexicana to name one), some famous and touristy.

"Jason, what do you mean by "renting for $1800 is way leas than maintenance". Kudos for helping the guy out."

I mean that because there mortgage is so low for having bought for $92k in 1992 that even with maintainence etc they are cash flow positive at just $1800.

And Jim is smoking crack. As a broker, he should know that Lincoln Square apartments rent and sell for more PSF than equivalent places in mid-town east.

smoking crack? isn't there such thing as comparing comprable units, etc? and i don't know that, because i have seen some awful locations in the ubiquitous "lincoln square" area (next to, adjacent to notorious public housing projects). your a dick.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/448583-rental-244-west-64th-street-lincoln-square-new-york

isn't the above building in lincoln square? there aren't any $1100 studios in my neighborhood, certainly not in doorman buildings.

aren't the amsterdam houses in lincoln square? i don't have any public housing for 30-40 blocks in either direction in my neighborhood.

Only about 5% of my biz this year has been rentals and most was in the West Village, a very specific, desirable hood.June,July and August are the holy months in rentals and in 21 years at this, these months have always been busy. In 2009 I did over 90 rental deals and around mid August business hit a wall, I expect the same will happen this year for most brokers handling rentals. That said I have a listing at 50 West 86th street that usually rents in less than a week, has been available over a month. I also have a listing at 95 Horatio that has been available over a month and this building is full. These listings are available to the entire brokerage community via OLR and SE and being shown quite a bit;not every listing is flying off the shelf.

I met an old friend at a BBQ last week who works for a major Landlord and is currently working in the west 30's. Since the LL reduced the incentives business has fallen off a cliff. They were doing about 15-20 deals a week and are now doing about 3-5. So even in 2009 when it seemed like the end of the world I had a record year in rental business. But overall I would argue this period was not good for owners, but my marketing, referral reach gave me access to clients looking to take advantage of the new incentives and depressed prices(I also was giving out gift cards). So with all the incentives and a "stabilizing" economic situation I would expect that brokers handling rentals that have a solid referral and marketing reach should be doing well during the peak months of the rental season. This will change come 8/15 to 9/1.

I think this fall will be very challenging for the owners of rental properties as the seasonal surge ends, new buildings come on line and rental's of existing units stall. Being busy in these last 3 months is simply normal seasonal behavior in the massive rental market of Manhattan.

I know people who write for the real estate sections of a few papers including the NYT's. Based on what I know, I take the content of these stories with a grain of salt.

My sales business continues to be strong, though nothing like the previous months. I have rebated over $100,000 dollars in commissions this year and the model continues to drive fresh business my way. My relationship with my customers has never been better and I am attracting the biz of people who generally would not have wanted to work with a broker.

Keith

http://theburkhardtgroup.com/agents_details.php?agent_ID=7619

People don't "choose" to use a broker. It's basically a requirement given the racket you guys have going. A racket that renders Craigslist and other sites useless because of brokers' faux postings. I've lived and found apartments in other cities and I got along just fine with the Internet.

If you really believed in your line of work, you'd agree that brokers should be optional: All apartments are fee-free. If someone wants to use a broker, they hire one.

Nice post Keith. Thanks for the detail and your on-the-ground perspective.

The owners use brokers out of convenience and because if they don't their lives will be made hell by the cold calling that ensues from...brokers asking why they aren't using one.

The renters and buyers are then forced into the routine because of the supply locked up with Brokers

Kind of comical.

The bottom line is we could have have a much more efficient system here. We don't because the "Brokerage" model has not changed even a little bit. Even the "good brokers" (who get your accolades here on SE) for the most part work for firms that have been static, in some cases for 100 years! The best they have come up with is utilizing current technology for marketing purposes and driving up costs even further. Progress? Better for the consumer? Not.

Another perspective...have a look.
http://theburkhardtgroup.com/services-and-fees-c14358.html

Anyone so disgruntled with the current state of affairs they would like to put their money/business acumen where their mouth is? Give me a call. I am doing very well on my own, my problem is trying to decide on whether taking my business model to the next level makes sense.

ssskit
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse People don't "choose" to use a broker. It's basically a requirement given the racket you guys have going. A racket that renders Craigslist and other sites useless because of brokers' faux postings. I've lived and found apartments in other cities and I got along just fine with the Internet.

If you really believed in your line of work, you'd agree that brokers should be optional: All apartments are fee-free. If someone wants to use a broker, they hire one.

you have left our a very important element in your hypothesis. time. most people dont have time to do this on their own. landlords are not interested in acommodating people's busy schedules. you want a property owner to show you apartments on sunday because you can't view during the week? lol...

Riversider
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse The owners use brokers out of convenience and because if they don't their lives will be made hell by the cold calling that ensues from...brokers asking why they aren't using one.

The renters and buyers are then forced into the routine because of the supply locked up with Brokers

Kind of comical.

the "hell" that would ensue is more likely to come from renters asking when/how they can see their property, not brokers coldcalling

Jimmy, I get what you mean by being trapped -- I'm currently in a place with lots of activity and rarely leave when it's just us because there's so much choice right here.

Keith, why wouldn't you take the business to the next level? What's holding you back?

nada, sorry i don't follow

inonada/somewherelse at 15 Broad with the bowling alley

the "hell" that would ensue is more likely to come from renters asking when/how they can see their property, not brokers coldcalling

Not even remotely correct for multi-dwelling rental properties.

I sold a place a while back without a broker. I used an answering machine and en email. Interested buyers were not the problem. The problem was the others, by that I mean brokers and other types of cold callers who hone in FSBO ads. I'm sure there are many fine brokers out there. But harassing clients to use your services does not a good broker make. I have no idea why this is perceived as 'good marketing'.

Jimmy, never mind -- you meant "feeling trapped" as in hard to get around; I meant it as in a "golden prison". My misinterpretation...

Givememore, I don't follow what you're trying to say. Can you give me more?